CarterHud

 

       We had all figured out that the Rays are able to fix players by some sort of sorcery called analytics before, but 2020 confirmed it to the rest of the world. The Rays seemed to hit on every single player, then ran away with the AL East division, before going all the way to the World Series. The final game of the season is when people started asking questions about their methods, when Blake Snell was pulled early, leading to a team loss. Then again people were confused when Snell was shipped off to San Diego soon after. But, Tampa Bay has proved in the past that they shouldn\’t be questioned, so we will see if that stands for 2021.

Offseason additions: RHP Chris Archer, LHP Rich Hill, RHP Michael Wacha, C Francisco Mejia, LHP Jeffrey Springs, RHP Chris Mazza, RHP Hunter Strickland, RHP David Hess.

Offseason subtractions: LHP Blake Snell, RHP Charlie Morton, OF Hunter Renfroe, LHP Aaron Loup, RHP John Curtiss, RHP Aaron Slegers, LHP Jose Alvarado, C Michael Perez, 1B Nate Lowe.

Trade Deadline 2020 summary

Acquired: OF Brett Phillips, LHP Cody Reed, RHP Edgar Garcia.

Traded: 1B Jose Martinez, SS Lucius Fox, IF Daniel Robertson.

2020 record: 40-20

2020 placement: 1st

2020 WAR leader (batter): Brandon Lowe

2020 WAR leader (pitcher): Ryan Yarbrough

Starting Pitchers

As Snell and Charlie Morton moved to San Diego and Atlanta, Tyler Glasnow was left alone to be the ace of the rotation, with a few question marks around his teammates. Glasnow has amazing stuff, but was not able to put it all together in 2020, as he had a 4.08 ERA before struggling in the postseason. Still, Glasnow had 91 strikeouts in 57.1 innings, with a 3.28 xERA and a .189 xBA against. He can touch 100 mph on his fastball, and batters went 10-for-83 with 58 strikeouts against Glasnow\’s curveball, which had a high 2939 rpm average spin rate. The only other returning member of the Rays expected to be in the rotation is Ryan Yarbrough. A left hander who had a 3.56 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 55.2 innings, Yarbrough is elite at forcing soft contact. Batters had an average exit velocity of just 82.6 mph with a 25.1 hard hit percentage against him in 2020. With the Rays being a high-velocity team, Yarbrough\’s fastest pitch averaged just 87 miles per hour. Making his way down to Tampa Bay is 41 year old Rich Hill, who is actually underrated thanks to his age. The Rays will be Hill\’s 10th team, after he spent 2020 in Minnesota. Since turning his career around in 2015, Hill has been a strikeout pitcher, but only had 31 in 38.2 innings last year. He had a 3.03 ERA but a 5.10 xERA. Hill\’s 10.9 BB rate was his worst in the Hill Success Era™. Hill had a 29.9 hard hit percentage against. Chris Archer returns to the Rays, where he spent his first seven seasons as the team\’s ace, before being traded in a lopsided deal for Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz. Archer was falling off when the Rays traded him, before jumping off a cliff in Pittsburgh. He missed 2020 with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, but he had a 5.19 ERA with 143 strikeouts in 119.2 innings in 2019. Archer also had a career worst 4.1 BB/9, with a 5.45 xERA and a .472 xSLG against. Another project for the Rays\’ pitching staff is Michael Wacha, the former all-star who last had an xERA under 4.00 in 2017. Wacha was a Met in 2020, and had a 6.62 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 34 innings. But, he had a 4.61 xERA, while walking just 4.5 percent of batters. While his fastball had a .400 average against, Wacha\’s changeup is a plus-pitch. The low-spin change had a .199 xBA against with a 40.8 percent whiff rate, finishing off 24 of Wacha\’s strikeouts. Luis Patino likely will not make the Rays, but he was the headliner in the Snell trade. He struck out 21 batters in 17.1 innings out of the bullpen for San Diego last year. Another rotation option is Shane McClanahan, who debuted in the playoffs and struck out seven batters while allowing one baserunner in three Spring Training innings. Yonny Chirinos has been a key rotation contributor for the past few years, but he will miss the season with Tommy John surgery.

Relief Pitchers

Nick Anderson had a really bad postseason, and was the guy who blew game six of the World Series. That really ruined what was an amazing season for Anderson, who put in a bid for the league\’s best relief pitcher. He struck out 26 batters while only walking three in 16.1 innings, saving six games and allowing just one earned run (0.55 ERA). Batters had a .140 xBA and a .348 xSLG. Both Anderson\’s fastball and curveball, his two pitches, had an average against under .100. Big righty Pete Fairbanks had his Rays success transformation last year, striking out 39 in 26.2 innings with a 2.70 ERA. Fairbanks throws a fastball that averaged 97.4 mph in 2020, and he allowed just a .296 xSLG against. His slider had a 42.7 percent whiff rate, with 5.4 inches of vertical movement above average. Closing out last year\’s big three is Diego Castillo, the smallest but the heaviest of the trio. Castillo split closing duties with Anderson, and had a 1.66 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 21.2 innings, for what was a career low (but still pretty good) 25.8 strikeout percentage. Armed with a wipeout slider, Castillo had an average exit velocity against of just 84.4 mph, while limited batters to a .177 xBA, a .273 xSLG and a 27.8 hard hit percentage. A small concern for him may be a career worst walk rate, which was inflated up to 12.4 percent last year. Chaz Roe was effective in 2019, but an elbow injury limited him to 10 games last year. In 2019, Roe struck out 65 in 51 innings with a 3.31 FIP. Roe\’s primary pitch is a slider, which has a ton of movement. The pitch had 3.7 inches above average of vertical movement, and 15.1 inches above average horizontally. He also had a 28.2 hard hit percentage against in 2019. Collin McHugh opted-out of the 2020 season after an injury, but he was really good over six seasons in Houston. McHugh struck out 82 batters in 74.2 innings for the Astros in 2019, but he had a 4.70 ERA. Batters had just a 30.3 hard hit percentage against McHugh. His slider struck out 61 batters with a 2825 rpm spin rate. 2017 5th round pick Josh Fleming debuted out of the rotation last year, but the veteran additions will likely send him to the \’pen. Fleming had a 2.78 ERA with a 1.082 WHIP and a 3.33 xERA in 32.1 innings. Fleming is a sinkerballer with no pitches averaging over 2000 rpm, but the sinker works, as his groundball rate was nearly 65 percent last year. Ryan Thompson was a Rule-5 pick in 2018, but did not make his MLB debut until 2020. Thompson is a submariner who struck out 23 with a 4.44 ERA in 26.1 innings. But, he had a 3.28 xERA, while batters had a .190 xBA against his slider. Thompson\’s main pitch is a sinker, which batters hit .375 against. Lefty Jeffrey Springs comes from Boston, where he had a 7.08 ERA last year, but he also struck out 28 batters in 20.1 innings. He throws a changeup about a quarter of the time, and the pitch nearly had a 53 percent whiff rate. Acquired with Springs was Chris Mazza, who limited batters to an 86.4 mph average exit velocity, but they had a .294 xBA. He struck out 29 batters in 30 innings while opening for Boston last year. Trevor Richards had a 1.93 ERA at the tail end of the 2019 season, but had a 5.91 ERA in 32 innings in 2020. He can start games and be a long relief option. 

Catchers

The Rays are sticking with Mike Zunino for 2021, and despite his raw power, Zunino is one of the league\’s worst hitters. In 118 games over the past two seasons, he has hit 13 home runs with a .161 average and a .556 OPS. He has a strong arm behind the plate, but Zunino\’s 44 K% and .146 xBA in 2020 are not going to cut it. Francisco Mejia was once a top catching prospect in the league, and he was just acquired in the Snell trade. Mejia had a .754 OPS in 79 MLB games in 2019, with a 1.157 OPS in 18 AAA games. He played in just 17 MLB games in 2020, and went 3-for-39. Third catcher Kevan Smith has a disadvantage by not being on the 40-man roster. He had an .830 OPS in 17 games for Tampa Bay last year. 

Infielders

While he was a switch-hitter at a point early in the season, Ji-Man Choi was worse offensively. He hit just three home runs in 42 games, with a .741 OPS. Choi walked 13.8 percent of the time, but he had just a .190 xBA and a .298 xSLG. A knee injury could keep Choi out of the Opening Day lineup, but he should be the first baseman when he comes back. Brandon Lowe was an all-star in 2019, but he broke his leg before playing in the game, which cost him most of the rest of the season. Lowe did not regress once fully healed in 2020, as he hit 14 home runs with a .916 OPS and a team-leading 2.4 WAR. Lowe also had an elite barrel percentage of 17.5%, and he had a .547 xSLG. He crushed fastball, with a .641 slugging and a 94.7 mph average exit velocity against heaters. Entering his 4th year at age 25 is Willy Adames, who may not be the starting shortstop for long, with Wander Franco coming soon. He had a career season in 2020, hitting eight home runs with an .813 OPS. However, he struck out 36.1 percent of the time, with -4 outs above average. While he has just 12 stolen bases in his career, Adames has above average speed, with a sprint speed of 28.2 ft/s. The Rays need Yandy Diaz to be healthy and performing, after he played in just 34 games last year. Diaz had a top ten percentile exit velocity in 2019, but he had just an 88.3 mph exit velocity. He had a .307 average last year, while walking 16.7 percent of the time, and striking out just 12.3 percent of batters. However, Diaz had just a .320 xSLG. If Diaz gets injured again, Joey Wendle should start at third base. He stole eight bases with a .777 OPS in 2020, but he had just an 86.7 mph average exit velocity. Wendle had three outs above average, and four at second base. Another potential backup third baseman is Mike Brosseau, who could start at first base if Choi is not ready to go. The undrafted utility infielder hit five home runs in 36 games with a .936 OPS. Brosseau had a 90.9 mph average exit velocity, but did strikeout 31.6 percent of the time. He is also a good defender, with four outs above average while playing all three bases and both corner outfielders. Yoshi Tsutsugo was a star in Japan before signing a three year, $21 million deal with Tampa Bay. Tsutsugo, who plays third base and left field, hit eight home runs, but also had a .197 average and a .708 OPS. His OPS could have been much worse, if not for a 14.1 walk rate. 

Outfielders

The breakout star of the playoffs was undoubtedly Randy Arozarena, who was recalled at the trade deadline and hit seven home runs with four stolen bases and a 1.022 OPS. Arozarena won ALCS MVP, while hitting 10 home runs in the postseason altogether, and he had an OPS over 1.000 in all four series. Arozarena also has great speed that went under-the-radar thanks to his power. His average sprint speed was 28.8 ft/s. Kevin Kiermaier is entering his 9th season in Tampa Bay, which is really impressive considering the change the team has had since then. Kiermaier may be traded soon, as he had just a .683 OPS in 49 games. He stole eight bases, and had a career high walk rate (12.6%) and strikeout rate (26.4%). Kiermaier still has elite speed, with a 29.3 ft/s sprint speed, while having six outs above average. Austin Meadows can be the starting right fielder, while also being a part of the DH rotation. After hitting 33 home runs in 2019, Meadows had just four in 36 games, with a .667 OPS. Meadows had a .177 xBA and a 32.9 strikeout rate. The Rays need Meadows to get back to his 2019 form. Manuel Margot is ready to be Kiermaier\’s replacement, but for now he will have to mostly play right field. Margot stole 12 bases with a .679 OPS, while striking out just 15.7 percent of the time. Margot had 15 outs above average in 2019, and he has two in 47 games last year, both in center field. Brett Phillips had a massive playoff hit, but he seems to be the odd-man out for now. Phillips went 3-for-20 for Tampa Bay last year, and that walk-off hit in the World Series was his only of the postseason. Tsutsugo and Brosseau also bring outfield depth. 

While trading Snell and losing Morton in free agency really makes the rotation a question, the Rays\’ front office and coaching staff has earned the benefit of the doubt. The bullpen is really good, and while the lineup is not elite, it is still above-average. The Rays may have fallen below the Yankees on the totem pole in the offseason, but they are definitely still a playoff team. 

 

       When they acquired Paul Goldschmidt in December of 2018, the Cardinals showed that they were not afraid to make a blockbuster deal. St. Louis practiced that again this offseason, as they brought in another star corner infielder from a middling NL West team, in Nolan Arenado. With Arenado in to boost what was a bad lineup in 2020, the Cardinals are ready to try and dominate a very weak NL Central division. 

Offseason additions: 3B Nolan Arenado, C Tyler Heineman, OF Matt Szczur, C Ali Sanchez.

Offseason subtractions: 2B Kolten Wong, IF Brad Miller, OF Dexter Fowler, LHP Austin Gomber, C Matt Wieters.

2020 Trade Deadline summary

Acquired: None.

Traded: None.

2020 record: 30-28

2020 placement: 2nd

2020 WAR leader (batter): Paul Goldschmidt

2020 WAR leader (pitcher): Kwang Hyun Kim

Starting Pitchers

Jack Flaherty looked like he could be a top-3 pitcher in baseball someday after he dominated in 2019, with a 2.75 ERA and 231 strikeouts plus a league leading 0.968 WHIP. Unfortunately, Flaherty took a big step back in 2020, finishing with a 4.91 ERA while striking out 49 in 40.1 innings. He walked 9.4 percent of batters, a sizable increase from 7.1 the previous season. Flaherty also had a 5.07 xERA. One good thing with his 2020 was his slider, which batters had a .314 slugging against with a 49.5 percent whiff rate. Kwang Hyun Kim came over from Korea as a 32 year old MLB rookie, and was great in eight games. He had a 1.62 ERA while allowing just 28 hits in 39 innings. Kim did strikeout just 24 batters, for a 15.6 K rate. Despite averaging under 90 miles per hour, his fastball was pretty good, as batters hit .182 with a .303 slugging against it. Adam Wainwright is back, and I mean that as both him re-signing with the Cardinals, and him having his best season since 2014 last year. Wainwright had a 3.10 ERA through 10 starts, and had two complete games. He struck out 54 batters in 65.2 innings, with just a 5.7 percent BB rate. Wainwright\’s famous curveball had an increased whiff rate of 33 percent, plus a 2791 rpm spin rate. Batters hit just .191 with a .245 slugging against the pitch. Dakota Hudson finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting in 2019, and had a 2.77 ERA in eight starts last year. Hudson will miss the 2021 season with Tommy John surgery. Miles Mikolas got a big contract after a great 2018, but struggled in 2019, before flexor tendon surgery cost him all of 2020. Mikolas is still recovering, and will probably miss the start of the season. When we last saw him in 2019, Mikolas had a 4.16 ERA in 32 starts. One thing that he is great at is limiting walks. He led the league in BB/9 in 2018, and had a 1.6 BB/9 and a 4.2 walk rate in 2019. Former ace Carlos Martinez was pretty good as the team\’s closer in 2019, but made just five starts last year, and was terrible. Martinez had a 9.90 ERA while striking out 17 in 20 innings. Batters had a .428 wOBA plus a .295 xBA against him last year. Daniel Ponce de Leon made eight starts (and had one relief outing) last year, and while he had a 4.96 ERA, he struck out 45 batters in 32.2 innings. Ponce de Leon did walk 14 percent of batters, but also held them to a .221 xBA. I could see him joining the St. Louis bullpen. 

Relief Pitchers

The Cardinals have a great bullpen, and they will probably have to cut a decent pitcher. Jordan Hicks is back after missing the end of 2019, and opting-out in 2020. In 2019, Hicks\’ sinker somehow averaged 101.1 mph, which does not seem fair. His secondary pitch is a slider, which had a 57.8 percent whiff rate. Overall, Hicks had a 3.14 ERA with 14 saves, 31 strikeouts and a 67.2 groundball rate in 28.2 innings. While he was the closer when he last pitched, it is unclear if Hicks will take that role back. The Cardinals did set have a set closer last year, as six different players had saves. Andrew Miller and Giovanny Gallegos were the only with multiple, as each had four. The 35 year old Miller had his best season since 2017, striking out 16 with a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings. Batters had just a .138 xBA against him. Miller\’s 2.04 xERA was his best since 2016, when he dominated with the Yankees before going to the World Series with the Indians. Gallegos also played for the Yankees, but did not debut until 2017, right after Miller left. He was elite in 2019, with a 2.31 ERA and 93 strikeouts. But, like Miller, he was limited in 2020. Gallegos struck out 21 in 15 innings, with a 3.60 ERA. In his career, he has walked just six percent of batters. Alex Reyes was once arguably the top prospect in all of baseball, but numerous injuries have limited him to the bullpen. Reyes pitched in 19.2 innings, which was his most since he debuted in 2016. Reyes struck out 27 batters with a 3.20 ERA. He also limited batters to a .186 xBA with a 28.9 hard hit percentage. Reyes\’ fastball averaged 97.5 mph, and both his curveball and slider had high whiff rates. John Gant could join the rotation if Mikolas is hurt, but he has succeeded in the bullpen. Gant struck out 18 batters in 15 innings last year, with a 2.40 ERA. He has a 3.55 ERA over four seasons as a Cardinal. Gant allowed just one barrel out of 36 batted balls all season. He also limited batters to a .193 xBA and a .272 xSLG. His best pitch in 2020 was definitively his changeup, which batters went 1-for-12 against, and it had a 51.6 percent whiff rate. Tyler Webb has a 3.03 ERA since joining the Cardinals in the middle of 2018. He pitched in 21 games last year, striking out 19 with a 2.08 ERA. Batters had just a 3.3 barrel percentage and an 85.7 mph average exit velocity. His slow changeup\’s whiff rate raised by nearly 20 percent from 2019 to 2020, ending up at over 47 percent. Young lefty Genesis Cabrera was amazing last year, and his one major flaw was a 16.7 percent walk rate. Cabrera had a 2.42 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 22.1 innings. Batters had an 84 mph average exit velocity, and all three of his main pitches were successful, and at-bats finishing with curveballs had just one hit out of 24. Ryan Helsley had a 2.95 ERA in 24 games in his rookie season of 2019, but had a 5.25 ERA with 10 strikeouts in 12 innings last year. While his fastball\’s average velocity decreased by one mph, it was still very high, at 96.9 mph. Thanks to a lot of competition, Helsley actually may not make the Cardinals. Sinkerballer Seth Elledge has an outside chance at the roster after striking out 14 in 11.2 innings last year, although he did allow six runs. 

Catchers

While he went into free agency and may have given some Cardinal fans a scare, Yadier Molina is back for his 18th season in St. Louis. The nine time all-star will probably be a Hall-of-Famer one day. He is no longer a good hitter, but Molina, the nine time Gold Glover, is still a great defensive catcher. He hit four home runs with a .662 OPS last year, and only walked 3.8 percent of the time. Molina also had a weak 84.7 mph average exit velocity, and his 23.1 ft/s sprint speed was one of the league\’s slowest. The Cardinals trusted Andrew Knizer enough to give him the backup job without much competition. He has played in just 26 MLB games, with a .642 OPS. At AAA Memphis in 2019, Knizer hit 12 home runs with an .821 OPS. Another option is Tyler Heineman, who had a .990 OPS at AAA in 2019, and has 20 games of MLB experience. 

Infielders

While Cardinals fans and baseball fans in general want to hype up Arenado, you need to at least recognize that 2020 was his worst year since he was a rookie. Will his 84 OPS+ remain, probably not. But, as he turns 30 next month, we at least have to realize that he is not perfect. Arenado hit eight home runs with a .738 OPS, while his average exit velocity dropped. He had just a .241 BABIP, which is pretty low and should go up. Still, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, which was an improvement for him, and with six outs above average, he won his 8th Gold Glove in eight MLB seasons. After hitting 30 home runs and making his first all-star team in 2019, Paul DeJong took an odd step backwards, finishing with just three homers in 45 games. DeJong had a .671 OPS, with a career worst 28.7 K rate. He made some big defensive improvements in 2019, but that was lost as well, as DeJong had -3 outs above average at shortstop. As Kolten Wong left for the rival Brewers, Tommy Edman will get a starting chance after playing a super-utility role. Edman stole 15 bases with an .850 OPS in 2019, but had a .685 OPS in 55 games last year. He only stole two bases, but his average sprint speed of 28.9 ft/s was elite. Edman had three combined outs above average between both corner outfield positions, second base, and the left side of the infield. Five-time 30 homer hitter Paul Goldschmidt hit just six in 58 games last year, but hit .304 with a team-leading .883 OPS. He walked 16 percent of the time, his best since 2015, with a 10.7 barrel percentage and a .509 xSLG. Goldschmidt is a three time Gold Glover, and had four outs above average at first base. It is kind of insane how fast Matt Carpenter fell. He hit 36 home runs and got MVP votes in 2018, but had a .726 OPS in 2019 before becoming even worse in 2020. Carpenter hit four home runs with a .186 average and a .640 OPS in 50 games. He still walked at a 13.6 percent rate, but Carpenter also had an increased K% of 28.4. He also had a depressed xBA of .214 and a .404 xSLG. 25 year old Edmundo Sosa has just 11 games of MLB experience, but he can be a utility backup infielder, while Carpenter is a bench bat. Sosa\’s last full season was at AAA in 2019, when in 118 games he hit 17 home runs with a .291 average and an .801 OPS. First baseman John Nogowski made his MLB debut in 2020 after posting an .889 OPS in AAA the season before.

Outfielders

The outfield is by far the weakest and most inexperienced group of this team, and the inexperience got worse when Dexter Fowler was traded to the Angels. This should be the year that we get a good look at Dylan Carlson, who is one of the league\’s top prospects. Carlson played in 35 MLB games last year, but did not look MLB ready, hitting .200 with a .616 OPS and striking out over 29 percent of the time. Carlson spent 2019 in AA and AAA (but mostly AA), and dominated, hitting 26 home runs with 20 stolen bases and a .914 OPS. Harrison Bader was the worst offensive outfielder on the team in 2019, but after posting a .779 OPS in 2020, he was actually the best one. Bader walked 10.4 percent of the time to elevate that OPS, although he had an 86 mph average exit velocity and a .199 xBA. To make up for that, Bader did what he does best, which is run fast and play great defense. He had a 29.4 ft/s sprint speed, and had four outs above average in center field. Tyler O\’Neill was a big prospect entering the majors after hitting 26 home runs with a 1.078 OPS in 64 AAA games in 2018. He has a lot of power, but has struggled to hit in the majors. He hit seven home runs with a .621 OPS and a .193 xBA. O\’Neill has really underrated speed, with a 29.6 ft/s sprint speed, and had four outs above average in left field. Lane Thomas had a 1.093 OPS in 34 games in 2019, but went just 4-for-36 in 2020. Thomas hit 10 home runs with 11 stolen bases and an .812 OPS in 75 AAA games in 2019. Another fourth outfielder option is Austin Dean, who has a .664 OPS in 101 MLB games. Dean was amazing at AAA in 2019 in the Marlins system, hitting 18 home runs with a 1.036 OPS in 73 games. 

Projection

The Cardinals are not a perfect team, and their young but flawed outfield shows that. But, compared to the rest of their division, they have little holes, and can beat you with their rotation, bullpen, and now with Arenado on board, maybe their lineup. As the Cubs, Reds and Brewers will fall off, the Cardinals will win the NL Central, and make the playoffs. 

From Getty Images

 

       For the Mariners\’ standards, this was a quiet offseason. GM Jerry DiPoto is known to get trade-happy, but he stayed pretty quiet. This rebuilding team was able to stay out of the headlines and work on developing their team for the future, until Kevin Mather stepped in. The team president said a lot of revealing things on a rotary club meeting, which led to his resignation. But as Mather promised during that meeting, the future is bright in Seattle.

Offseason additions: LHP James Paxton, RHP Rafael Montero, RHP Ken Giles, RHP Chris Flexen, RHP Keynan Middleton, 1B Sam Travis, LHP Roenis Elias.

Offseason subtractions: IF Dee Strange-Gordon, RHP Yoshihisa Hirano, OF Phil Ervin, UT Tim Lopes, RHP Bryan Shaw, LHP Nestor Cortes Jr.

Trade Deadline 2020 summary

Acquired: IF Ty France, C Luis Torrens, OF Taylor Trammell, RHP Andres Munoz, OF Alberto Rodriguez.

Traded: C Austin Nola, RHP Taijuan Walker, RHP Austin Adams, RHP Taylor Williams, RHP Dan Altavilla. 

2020 record: 27-33

2020 placement: 3rd

2020 WAR leader (batter): Dylan Moore

2020 WAR leader (pitcher): Marco Gonzales

Starting Pitchers

The Mariners have been in clear support of a 6-man rotation entering the season, and that will mean a three-man bench. A perfect mix of prospects and veterans will be achieved throughout the year, as young players move up through the minors. Marco Gonzales is in the middle of those two groups, as he is not a prospect at age 29, but he is also entering just his fourth full season, so I would not declare Gonzales a veteran yet. In 69.2 innings last year, he had 64 strikeouts, for a career high 8.3 K/9. What Gonzales lacks in strikeout power, he made up for it with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.947 WHIP. He is a master of control, with just a 2.5 BB% and a 0.9 BB/9 in 2020, the latter leading the league. Returning to Seattle after a two-year stay in New York is James Paxton, who noticeably saw his fastball velocity fall off, which is a massive concern. After average over 95 mph and touching 97 in 2019, Paxton was sitting 92 last year. He was still able to strike out 26 in 20.1 innings, but Paxton had a 6.64 ERA and a 1.475 WHIP through five starts before missing the rest of the season with an injury. The main player acquired for Paxton back in the November 2018 trade was Justus Sheffield, who was productive in 10 starts as a 24 year old last year, but with some flaws. Sheffield had a 3.58 ERA with 48 strikeouts and just two home runs in 55.1 innings, but batters hit him hard, with a 46.6 hard hit percentage. Sheffield\’s slider had a 47.5 percent whiff rate in 2019, but that fell to just 28.1 last year. He made up for that by allowing less hits, as the average against the slider dropped by over 100 points, down to .192. Yusei Kikuchi had a rough season while adapting to North American baseball in 2019, but showed some more promise last year. Yes, Kikuchi had a 5.17 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 47 innings. But, he had a 7.9 H/9, while lowering his xERA to 3.37. Kikuchi was also able to limit batters to a .321 xSLG. There is a chance that the only right-hander in the Mariners rotation is Chris Flexen (yes, you read that right, Mets fans). Flexen had an 8.07 ERA in 68 innings over three seasons as a Met from 2017 to 2019, but decided to go to the KBO for 2020. It obviously worked, as he got an MLB deal. In 21 starts, Flexen had a 3.01 ERA with 132 strikeouts in 116.2 innings. The last rotation spot is between Justin Dunn, a righty, and a southpaw in Nick Margevicius. Both spent significant time in last year\’s rotation, but Dunn is the favorite, as he has more potential, and was a little bit better. A 2016 first round pick of the Mets, Dunn had a 4.34 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 45.2 innings. Control was a big issue for him, as he walked 31 batters, or 15.7 percent. Batters also hit Dunn hard, with an average exit velocity of 92 mph. Margevicius could end up in the bullpen is he does not make the rotation. He had a 4.57 ERA in 41.1 innings after being claimed off waivers from San Diego. Walks were not as much of an issue for him as they were for Dunn, and Margevicius had a better xERA of 4.36. We could also see 23 year old Logan Gilbert pretty soon. A first rounder in 2018, Gilbert reached AA in 2019, and in the minors in total, he had a 2.13 ERA with 165 strikeouts in 135 innings.

Relief Pitchers

The Mariners had an awful bullpen last year, and their new closer is Rafael Montero (yes Mets fans, you read that right again), who saved games for Texas last year. Montero had eight saves while striking out 19 in 17.2 innings with a 4.08 ERA. The highest average against one of Montero\’s four pitches was .200. Despite throwing a sinker almost a quarter of the time, Montero had a very low groundball rate of 28.9%. He actually allowed more line drives than ground balls. The best Mariners reliever last year was easily Yohan Ramirez, a 25 year old who in his rookie season posted a 2.61 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 20.2 innings. Batters had just a .149 xBA and a .279 xSLG against Ramirez. Batters went just 1-for-32 with an 81.8 mph average exit velocity and a 42.9 percent whiff rate against his slider. The Mariners have seen Keynan Middleton over the past few years as a member of the rival Angels. He allowed one run in 7.2 innings in 2019 while returning from Tommy John surgery, but his velocity was down. That came back up to 97.1 mph on average last year, but his overall numbers worsened. Middleton allowed seven earned runs in 12 innings. Also returning from TJ surgery was Kendall Graveman, who can start games, but mostly came out of the bullpen in 2020. He had a 5.79 ERA in 18.2 innings, but at 3.68, Graveman\’s xERA was much better. Despite allowing a 91.6 mph average exit velocity, batters had just a .229 xBA and a .359 xSLG against Graveman. Casey Sadler had a 2.14 ERA in 33 games in 2019, but struggled last year for the Cubs and Mariners. In Seattle, Sadler had a 4.50 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 10 innings. His walk rate went up by over seven percent, up to 14%. Still, Sadler allowed a hard hit percentage of just 26.4 percent, and his 2930 rpm curveball had a 44.4 percent whiff rate. Anthony Misiewicz was a starter in the minors, but transitioned into a one inning reliever at the big league level. He struck out 25 with a 4.05 ERA in 20 innings, and allowed just one barrel all year. Misiewicz had a 3.37 xERA, and batters went 1-for-10 against his mid-90s fastball. Matt Magill struck out 28 with a 3.63 ERA while saving games down the stretch in 2019, but struggled in Seattle last year. He had a 6.10 ERA with an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph. Both his slider and curveball can get whiffs. 23 year old Joey Gerber was a strikeout machine in the low levels of the minors, but had just six in 15.2 innings in 2020, his first MLB season. Gerber had a 4.05 ERA, and could benefit from some more time in the minors.

Catchers

The Mariners have seen Omar Narvaez and Austin Nola leave via trade in recent seasons, but they still have a good offensive bat in Tom Murphy, who was a breakout player in 2019. However, a broken foot cost Murphy all of 2020. He hit 18 home runs in 75 games in \’19, with an OPS of .858. There were some flaws, however, as Murphy struck out 31 percent of the time. He will split time behind the plate with Luis Torrens, a former Rule-5 pick acquired in the same deadline deal that sent Nola to San Diego. In 18 games after the trade, Torrens had a .696 OPS. He is not the best defensive catcher, so the 24 year old could use some work there. 

Infielders

Evan White had his rookie season in 2020, and he is a very interesting first baseman. He may already be the league\’s best defensively, with six outs above average last year, and a Gold Glove. But, White is also a well below-average hitter, at a position demands offensive skill. White struck out a whopping 41.6 percent of the time, with eight home runs, a .176 average and a .599 OPS. White can hit the ball well, with a 14.7 barrel percentage and a 91.7 mph average exit velocity. Dylan Moore led the team in WAR in 2020 after a rough rookie season in 2019. He can be a super utility player, or start at second base. Moore hit eight home runs while stealing 12 bases with an .855 OPS. Moore lowered his strikeout rate, but at 27% it is still a problem. He played all seven infield and outfield positions last year. A former top prospect of the Phillies, JP Crawford has never been able to get it going offensively. He had an 85.8 mph average exit velocity with a .674 OPS in 2020. He stole six bases, but Crawford\’s 26.6 ft/s sprint speed was below average. Where Crawford really excelled was defensively, with seven outs above average, as he came home with his first Gold Glove. Kyle Seager is entering his 11th season as a Mariner, and it could be his last, especially if Kevin Mather was not lying. Seager had a 122 OPS+ last year while playing in all 60 games. The former was his highest since 2016. While striking out just 13.3 percent of the time, Seager hit nine home runs with a .788 OPS. He also had two outs above average, and his walk rate was a big improvement at 12.9 percent. Shed Long was the team\’s main second baseman in 2020 after he had a .787 OPS in 2019. Long slumped throughout 34 games last year, with a .173 xBA, a .301 xSLG and a .533 OPS. He also had -3 outs above average at second base. Long had surgery in the offseason, and could start as a backup infielder. Another backup infielder possibility is Sam Haggerty, who stole four bases in 13 games for the Mariners last year. Ty France can be the normal DH, but also play third base. Despite getting traded mid-season, France was solid offensively throughout, with a total of four home runs, a .305 average and an .836 OPS in 43 games. France had a .285 xBA, but had an average exit velocity of just 85.7 mph. 

Outfielders

While the Mariners have a ton of up-and-coming outfield prospects, Kyle Lewis asserted himself as the starting center fielder, by winning AL Rookie of the Year. He hit 11 home runs while stealing five bases with an .801 OPS. Lewis walked 14 percent of the time, but also struck out an additional 29.3 percent of the time. He had two outs above average in center. The only other lock in the outfield is Mitch Haniger in right field. Haniger was an all-star in 2018, but missed most of 2019 and all of 2020. In 63 games in 2019, Haniger had a .778 OPS with 15 home runs. Haniger is healthy now, and so far in Spring Training, he is 6-for-22 with a home run. The left field starter is up for grabs, and because of the six-man rotation, only one player who misses out can make the team as a backup. Jose Marmolejos hit 16 home runs with a .315 average and a .912 OPS in 101 AAA games in 2019, and played in 35 games last year. Marmolejos hit six home runs with a .672 OPS. He struggled against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, but crushes fastballs. Marmolejos hit five home runs with a 95.1 mph exit velocity against heaters last year. He can play corner outfield as well as first base. Taylor Trammell is still a highly-rated prospect, but his stock has fallen off since switching teams twice. In AA in 2019, Trammell stole 20 bases but had a .689 OPS. In 11 Spring Training games so far, Trammell has a .292 average with a .954 OPS. Jake Fraley has a .427 OPS in 19 career games, but he hit 19 home runs with 22 stolen bases and a .910 OPS between AA and AAA in 2019. He has gone just 4-for-25 this spring. Top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez will be options soon, but not now. 

Projection

I have been a big fan of what the Mariners have been doing with their most recent rebuild, and they have made some nice trades during their blow-up. The bullpen still needs a lot of reconstruction, but the rotation and lineup are solid. The Mariners are a fourth place team, but hopefully they will end their playoff drought soon. 

 

       Looking back on the Giants\’ season, it wasn\’t too bad. Yes, they finished under .500. But, they had many surprising breakout players, and nearly made the playoffs, something was not even in reach entering the season. They didn\’t win the offseason like the rival Padres, but the Giants made a lot of solid additions to make their team better for 2021, which is what you want if you are a Giants fan. They won\’t beat out the Dodgers or Padres, but I have been impressed with their rebuild.

Offseason additions: LHP Jake McGee, IF Tommy La Stella, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Matt Wisler, LHP Alex Wood, LHP Jose Alvarez, RHP Aaron Sanchez, C Curt Casali, IF Jason Vosler, RHP Nick Tropeano, RHP Zack Littell, RHP Dominic Leone, RHP John Brebbia, LHP Scott Kazmir (!).

Offseason subtractions: LHP Drew Smyly, RHP Trevor Cahill, LHP Tony Watson, RHP Shaun Anderson, RHP Sam Coonrod, RHP Jeff Samardzija. 

2020 Trade Deadline summary

Acquired: LHP Anthony Banda.

Traded: none.

2020 record: 29-31

2020 placement: 3rd

2020 WAR leader (batter): Mike Yastrzemski

2020 WAR leader (pitcher): Kevin Gausman

Starting Pitchers

When the players who received qualifying offers were announced, Kevin Gausman stood out. Gausman was really productive for the Giants in 2020, but it was also his first good year in a long time. Alas, Gausman accepted, and the Giants have at least one more year of him. Like I said, he was really productive last year, as he had a 3.62 ERA while striking out 79 in 59.2 innings. His split-finger was better than ever, as batters had a 49% whiff rate with a .097 average and a .139 slugging versus the pitch. Johnny Cueto is back for his sixth season in San Francisco, although two of those years were heavily limited by Tommy John surgery. 2020 was his first full year back, and Cueto had a 5.40 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 63.1 innings. His 4.83 xERA was a small step up, but still not great. Cueto, who has drastically changed his repertoire since his prime, has seen his fastball raise in velocity from before TJ in 2018. The Dodgers brought back Alex Wood to be their fifth starter last year, but he instead spent most of the season in the bullpen. Wood allowed nine earned runs in 12.2 innings, while striking out 15. Wood allowed 17 hits with a 1.816 WHIP. His sinker had a 91.2 mph average velocity, its highest since 2017. Another example of Giants bargain hunting was when they signed Anthony DeSclafani. He had a 3.89 ERA in 31 starts in 2019, but never got it going last year. DeSclafani had a 7.22 ERA with just 25 strikeouts in 33.2 innings. He had a 6.53 xERA, and his fastball had a .484 average and an .871 slugging against. DeSclafani\’s slider actually improved, with a 35.2 percent whiff rate and a .190 average against. 24 year old Logan Webb had some highlights last year, like when he allowed two runs over seven innings against the Diamondbacks. But, the season was mostly a negative for Webb, who had a 5.47 ERA with 46 strikeouts and a 1.564 WHIP in 54.1 innings. So far through Spring Training, Webb has struck out 10 batters through six scoreless innings. 2016 AL ERA king Aaron Sanchez has been really bad since then, and did not pitch in 2020. For the Astros and Blue Jays in 2019, Sanchez had a 5.89 ERA with 115 strikeouts in 131.1 innings. Making a comeback is Scott Kazmir, the veteran lefty who has not pitched in the MLB since 2016, when he had a 4.56 ERA in 26 starts for the Dodgers. Kazmir could make the bullpen.

Relief Pitchers

The main weakness of this team is the bullpen, and that is pretty clear. Their best option to close right now is Jake McGee, who has been in the NL West for the past five years. He followed four rough seasons in Colorado with a much needed revival with the Dodgers. McGee struck out 33 batters in 20.1 innings with a 2.66 ERA and a 0.836 WHIP. McGee had 41.8 K% and a 3.8 BB%, and a .186 xBA against. However, batters hit the ball hard when they hit the ball, with a 92.3 mph average exit velocity, and a 48.8 hard hit percentage. The Giants claimed Jarlin Garcia off waivers from Miami before the season, and they have to be satisfied with the early results, as Garcia allowed one earned run in 18.1 innings (0.49 ERA) with a 0.982 WHIP. Batters went 3-for-27 with a just one extra base hit against Garcia\’s fastball, although it had a very low whiff rate of under 12%. The Giants may have made the value move of the offseason, scooping up Matt Wisler for just over $1 million. Wisler was sneakily great for the Twins in 2020, with a 1.07 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 25.1 innings. Batters had a 3.6 barrel percentage and a .164 xBA against him, as well as a .272 xSLG. Wisler\’s primary pitch is a slider, which he threw over 83 percent of the time last year. Batters went 11-for-77 against the pitch. One thing that really sets the Giants apart is their surplus of left-handed relievers. Jose Alvarez is a great example of that. Batters have just a .664 OPS against Alvarez in his career. He also has a 3.59 career ERA. Alvarez was one of the few successful Phillies relievers last year, before he was hit by a comebacker. In 6.1 innings, he allowed one run with six strikeouts. In 2019, Alvarez limited batters to an 86.1 mph average exit velocity. Submariner Tyler Rogers had a great introduction to Major League Baseball in 2019, but had a 4.50 ERA in a league leading 29 games. Rogers allowed just one barrel in 86 batted balls, for a 1.2 barrel percentage. He also walked just 4.9 percent of batters. In his short career, Rogers has an average exit velocity against of just 85.3 mph. Reyes Moronta had a great start to his MLB career, but did not pitch for about 18 months after shoulder surgery. When we last saw him in 2019, Moronta had a 2.86 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 56.2 innings. His big issue was a 13.1 BB%. Sam Selman had a 3.72 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 19.1 innings, which does not seem great, but he was able to limit batters to an 85.1 mph average exit velocity, and a .271 xSLG. I wrote more about Selman, as well as Matt Wisler here. The final spot in the \’pen is up for grabs, and the handedness of the pitcher matters a lot. The question is if San Francisco thinks Nick Tropeano rebranded himself after striking out 19 with a 1.15 ERA in 15.2 innings for the Pirates last year. He did have a 9.88 ERA in 13.2 innings for the Angels in 2019. Wandy Peralta limited batters to an 85.6 mph average exit velocity last year, and had a 3.27 ERA in 27.1 innings. 2016 9th round pick Caleb Baragar is also a lefty, and had a 4.03 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 22.1 innings last year, his rookie year. One of Webb and Sanchez is also an option.

Catchers

Buster Posey opted-out of the 2020 season, and it allowed the team to get a good look at 2018 2nd overall pick Joey Bart. Bart struggled at the plate, hitting no home runs with a .609 OPS in 33 games. Now Posey is back, and Bart will return to the minors. The former franchise icon has not been an above average player since 2017, and he had his worst season yet in 2019. Posey hit just seven home runs in 114 games, with a .688 OPS. His 16 K% was his highest by far in the Statcast era. The Giants brought in a more offensive-capable backup in Curt Casali, which in 2017 would have been a weird thing to say, when Posey won a Silver Slugger and Casali played in nine games coming off of a .609 OPS season. He was a member of the Reds last year, and had an .866 OPS. Casali also had a 15.1 BB%. 

Infielders

2020 saw Brandon Belt finally transition from good, but nothing special, to a very good hitter. Belt, who somehow has never hit 20 home runs, hit nine last year, with a .309 average and a 1.015 OPS. He also had a .597 xSLG with a .427 wOBA. One thing that Belt has been able to do consistently is walk, which he did at a 16.8 percent rate in 2020. That raised his OBP up to .425. Donovan Solano followed up a breakout 2019 by winning a Silver Slugger. After August 10th, Solano was hitting .458 with a 1.137 OPS. He slumped the rest of the way, but still hit .326 with an .828 OPS. One place for improvement with Solano is walking, something he did just 4.9 percent of the time last year. Three time Gold Glove winner Brandon Crawford has had bad offensive seasons in recent years, but his .792 OPS and 116 OPS+ were career highs. He had just a .326 OBP, but his .465 slugging was also a career high. Defensively, Crawford rebounded after a down 2019, with four outs above average. The worst hitter in the infield last year was actually Evan Longoria, the three-time all-star. Still, Longoria was not bad, with seven home runs, a .722 OPS and a 97 OPS+. Despite a .254 average, Longoria had a .280 xBA. He also had a 91.7 mph average exit velocity. Defensively, the three time Gold Glover had six outs above average, but was not a finalist for the award. The Giants have a really good backup infielder in Tommy La Stella, who can start at second and third base. In 55 games for the Angels and A\’s last year, La Stella hit .281 with an .819 OPS. La Stella is elite at not striking out, with just a 5.3 K rate. He walked over double that, with an 11.8 percent walk rate. They even have another good backup utility infielder in Wilmer Flores, who in his first season as a Giant, had a career best 125 OPS+. Flores hit 12 home runs in 55 games, with an .830 OPS and a .515 slugging. Since 2015, Flores has just a 12.8 K%. Another option is Jason Vosler, who was signed to an MLB deal despite having zero MLB games of experience. At AAA in 2019, the now-27 year old hit 20 home runs with an .890 OPS.  

Outfielders

After what he did in 2020, Mike Yastrzemski is now the best player with that last name to play in the MLB. Wait, why is there an angry mob of Bostonians outside my door with pitchforks and torches? Well, Yastrzemski hit 10 home runs with a .297 average and a .968 OPS. He had a .492 xSLG with a 13.3 BB%, but struggled defensively, with -5 outs above average while splitting time between center and right field. The Giants may have something with Alex Dickerson, who had a 102 OPS+ over 107 games in San Diego, but has a .913 OPS in 108 games with the Giants. In 2020, he hit 10 home runs with a .298 average and a .947 OPS. Dickerson had a 90.9 mph average exit velocity and a .494 xSLG. He also hit .358 with a .679 slugging against fastballs. Mauricio Dubon came through the Brewers system as a shortstop and second baseman, but he is now a center fielder for San Francisco. He hit four home runs with two stolen bases, a .726 OPS and a 101 OPS+ in 54 games last year. He had six outs above average, with one at second, and the rest in center. Former Phillies first baseman Darin Ruf returned from the KBO and had a career season while mostly playing left field. Ruf hit five home runs with an .887 OPS and a 143 OPS+, the latter two being career bests. He also walked 12.9 percent of the time. The final spot is between Austin Slater and Steven Duggar. Slater has a massive advantage, after hitting five home runs with eight stolen bases, and a 15.4 walk rate. He also had a .303 xBA with a .540 xSLG. Duggar is a more reliable defensive option, but in his career he has an OPS of just .630. Duggar was awful in 21 games last year, going 6-for-34. 

Projection

The Giants are better offensively than people give them credit for. But that pitching staff is terrible. There are by no means at the end of their rebuild, and that is not a bad thing. But, what is a bad thing will be their team this year. I predict they will finish in 4th place, missing the playoffs. 

 

       So, the Padres offseason was kind of fun. After an energetic trade deadline, where they seemed to get everyone that they could possibly get, GM AJ Preller decided that the deadline push was not enough after Mike Clevinger had Tommy John surgery. So, Preller went out, backed by a top-2 farm system in the league, and made multiple blockbuster trades, and two in one day. And just to cap off the offseason, he extended his young star for 14 years. San Diego actually became the model organization in baseball, something that we didn\’t see coming five years ago.

Offseason additions: LHP Blake Snell, RHP Yu Darvish, RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Mark Melancon, IF Ha-Seong Kim, RHP Keone Kela, C Victor Caratini.

Offseason subtractions: RHP Kirby Yates, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, RHP Zach Davies, RHP Garrett Richards, RHP Luis Patino, 1B Mitch Moreland, IF Greg Garcia, C Jason Castro, LHP Joey Lucchesi, OF Greg Allen.

Trade Deadline 2020 summary

Acquired: RHP Mike Clevinger, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, 1B Mitch Moreland, C Austin Nola, C Jason Castro, RHP Austin Adams, RHP Taylor Williams, RHP Dan Altavilla, OF Greg Allen. 

Traded: OF Josh Naylor, RHP Cal Quantrill, C Austin Hedges, IF Ty France, OF Taylor Trammell, RHP Andres Munoz, C Luis Torrens, OF Edward Olivares, RHP Gerardo Reyes, IF Hudson Potts, IF Owen Miller, OF Jeisson Rosario, LHP Joey Cantillo, SS Gabriel Arias. 

2020 record: 37-23

2020 placement: 2nd

2020 WAR leader (batter): Manny Machado

2020 WAR leader (pitcher): Dinelson Lamet

Starting Pitchers

While everybody wants to (rightfully) talk about the new rotation acquisitions, we cannot forget about Dinelson Lamet, who finished 4th in NL Cy Young voting in 2020. Lamet had a 2.09 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 69 innings. His 7.5 BB% was a career low, and batters had a .187 xBA against him. Lamet throws a high-90s fastball, and batters went 10-for-125 (.080 batting average) with a 47.2 percent whiff rate against his slider. Thanks to how he was utilized in Tampa Bay, it may take awhile for the Padres to make Blake Snell a starter available to go really deep into games. Of course Snell\’s game six outing of the World Series has become known worldwide, but he was still really good during the regular season. Snell had a 3.24 ERA while striking out 63 in 50 innings. His breaking ball and curveball had to do a lot of the work last year, as his fastball was unusually bad. Batters hit .326 with a .663 slugging against Snell\’s heater. Despite Lamet\’s amazing season, Yu Darvish was even better. Darvish finished 2nd in Cy Young voting, and 14th in MVP voting for the Cubs last year, with a 2.01 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 76 innings. That is a 11.0 K/9, slightly under his career total of 11.1, which is an all-time record. He has relied much more on his cutter than his fastball over the past two seasons, and the decreased usage allowed the heater to shine, as batters had a .138 xBA and a 42.3% whiff rate against it. Before he was acquired from Pittsburgh, Joe Musgrove was viewed as a potential Gerrit Cole or Tyler Glasnow, someone who succeeded after leaving the Pirates. This comes after he had a career season in 2020, as Musgrove finished with a 3.86 ERA, 55 strikeouts and a 3.13 xERA in 39.2 innings. Batters had a .193 xBA and a .305 xSLG against Musgrove, and while his fastball struggled, both his slider and curveball were elite. Combined, batters went 9-for-65 against the latter two pitches, and each had a whiff rate over 50%. Former rookie standout Chris Paddack is on his last chance already, entering just his third season. Paddack had a rough sophomore slump last year, striking out 58 in 59 innings with a 4.73 ERA. Batters crushed Paddack\’s fastball, hitting 10 home runs with a .308 average against it. He also had a rough hard hit percentage against of 47.4 percent. The one thing Paddack did well was limit walks, with a 4.9 percent BB rate. Lefty Adrian Morejon struck out 25 in 19.1 innings last year, with a 4.66 ERA. The 22 year old Cuban throws a high-90s fastball, and batters hit .167 with a 57.1 percent whiff rate against his split-finger last year. The top pitching prospect in all of baseball is MacKenzie Gore, who could beat out Paddack for the fifth starter spot, or start the year on the team, as Lamet battles an elbow injury that he missed last postseason because of. Drafted third overall in 2017, Gore had a 1.69 ERA with 135 strikeouts in 101 minor league innings in 2019. Either Gore or Morejon could start in the bullpen, but I don\’t see San Diego wanting to do that with the former. 

Relief Pitchers

The Padres saw 2019 closer Kirby Yates and standout trade deadline acquisition Trevor Rosenthal leave to the American League over the offseason, but they still have a good bullpen. Drew Pomeranz was the closer after Yates was injured but before Rosenthal came via trade. The left-handed Pomeranz was a reliever for a full season for the first time in his career, and had a 1.45 ERA while striking out 29 in 18.2 innings. His fastball was up by nearly two miles per hour, and batters had a .114 average with a .182 slugging against it. The Padres also signed Mark Melancon, who is a closing option after saving 11 games for Atlanta last year. The soon-to-be 36 year old had a 2.78 ERA while only striking out 14 in 22.2 innings last year. Batters had an average exit velocity of just 83.9 mph against Melancon\’s cutter, while hitting .167 with no extra base hits against his curveball. Another new acquisition with closing experience is Keone Kela, who was the Rangers closer in 2018. Kela pitched in just three games for Pittsburgh last year, but he had a 2.12 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 29.2 innings in 2019. He has a good mix of a high-90s fastball and a slow curveball, the latter of the two having a .127 average against in 2019. The fourth and final potential closer is Emilio Pagan, who saved 20 games with 96 strikeouts with the Rays in 2019. Pagan was traded after his first three seasons in the league, but that tradition is set to change this year. He had a bit of a down year in 2020, with a 4.50 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 22 innings, while his 10.3 BB% was double his 2019 total. Batters went 1-for-22 against his lethal cutter. Pierce Johnson returned to the MLB last year from Japan, and he was a completely different player. Johnson had a 2.70 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 20 innings. He allowed just 15 hits, although a high walk rate raised his WHIP to 1.200. Johnson\’s main pitch is a curveball, which had a 2969 rpm and a 48.1 percent whiff rate last year, while accounting for 22 of his Ks. Lefty Matt Strahm is recovering from knee surgery, and will probably miss Opening Day. Strahm was productive last year, with a 0.871 WHIP and a 2.61 ERA. He struck out 15 batters in 20.2 innings, and had just a 4.8 BB%. Austin Adams struck out 51 batters in 31 innings for the Mariners in 2019, and was unhealthy for them last year, before the Padres acquired him. In four innings after the trade, Adams had seven strikeouts. Adams throws a slider and a fastball, and both had elite average spin rates over 2700 rpm. Also acquired with Adams in the trade with Seattle was Dan Altavilla, who had 10 strikeouts with a 3.12 ERA in 8.2 innings as a Padre. Combined with his Mariners stats, Altavilla had a 91.1 mph average exit velocity against, with a 97.3 mph average fastball velocity. Veteran Craig Stammen was a key bullpen member from 2017-2019, but 2020 was his worst season since 2010. Stammen had a 5.63 ERA while allowing 27 hits in 24 innings. On the plus side, he had a 2.5 barrel percentage, a 3.8 BB%, and a 3.35 xERA, suggesting that this was just a blip. Both his slider and curveball had an average against under .200, with a whiff rate over 40%. Tim Hill might get pushed out of the bullpen when Strahm is healthy. The lefty had a 4.50 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 18 innings in 2020, his first in San Diego. Hill limited batters to an 85.1 mph average exit velocity. Michel Baez throws a hard fastball with a mid-80s changeup. He struggled in limited time last year, but had a 3.03 ERA in 24 games in 2019. 

Catchers

The catching spot is uncertain entering the season, thanks to Austin Nola\’s broken finger. Whenever he returns, Nola will be a stable starting catcher who can also play first base. After a .903 OPS in 29 games for Seattle, Nola slumped down the stretch, with a .705 OPS in 19 games as a Padre. He is a good pitch framer, and had a .280 xBA and a .467 xSLG. Along with Darvish, the Padres acquired Victor Caratini, his personal catcher from Chicago. Caratini is also a good pitch framer, and had a 105 OPS+ in 2019, but he was not good at the plate last year. In 44 games, he had a .661 OPS. If Nola is not good-to-go, then top catching prospect Luis Campusano will be the backup. He debuted in 2020, playing in one game. At High-A in 2019, Campusano hit 15 home runs with a .325 average and a .906 OPS. 

Infielders

The Red Sox and Astros were competitors in previous years, but the Padres now have the best left side of the infield. After a disappointing first season in San Diego, Manny Machado finished third in MVP voting, and won his first Silver Slugger (yes, his first). Machado had a great case to win the award, hitting 16 home runs with a .304 average and a .950 OPS. His 10.2 BB% was his highest in the Statcast era, and he had a .536 xSLG. Machado\’s 158 OPS+ was a career best, just like his 14.6 K%. The talk of the offseason was Fernando Tatis Jr., who signed a 14 year, $340 million deal as a 22 year old. Tatis showed that the sophomore slump is a myth, as he won a Silver Slugger and finished fourth in MVP voting. He hit 17 home runs with 11 stolen bases and a .937 OPS. He hits the ball a lot harder than you would think, with an MLB leading 95.9 mph average exit velocity and a 62.2 percent hard hit percentage. He is a pure five tool player, as Tatis had an average sprint speed of 29.4 ft/s, with an elite nine outs above average, a 25 OAA increase from his rookie season. Jake Cronenworth came over as an add-on in a trade, and had a 1.034 OPS as a rookie through August. A weak September lowered his season totals to an .831 OPS. Cronenworth hit .285, but he also had a .325 xBA. He also had a .538 xSLG, with a 28.7 ft/s sprint speed. He also struck out just 15.6 percent of the time. Cronenworth can play all over the infield, and had seven outs above average last year. He mainly played at second base, where he had four of those seven. Cronenworth could lose his job to Ha-Seong Kim, a 25 year old coming over from the KBO. Kim was a great hitter in 2020, mashing 30 home runs with 23 stolen bases, a .306 average and a .921 OPS. Kim also had an .866 OPS over seven KBO seasons. Like Cronenworth, he can play around the infield. Closing out baseball\’s best infield is Eric Hosmer, who had a .974 OPS against righties, but a .613 OPS against southpaws. Still, Hosmer had his best season in San Diego, with nine home runs and an .851 OPS. His 17.9 K% was his best since joining the Padres, and he also had a 90.8 mph average exit velocity. A four time Gold Glove winner, Hosmer was actually the infield\’s worst defender last year, with -2 outs above average. Speedster Jorge Mateo can be a utilityman and a speedster for the team. Mateo infamously stole 82 bases as a minor leaguer in 2015, but had just one with a .454 OPS in 22 games last year. He still had great speed last year, with a 29.8 ft/s sprint speed. 

Outfielders

Tommy Pham\’s first season with the Padres was disappointing, as he played in just 31 games, with a .211 average and a .624 OPS. He did steal six bases, with a 28.2 ft/s sprint speed. For the first time in his career, Pham had an OPS+ under 100. He also had a very good 92.8 mph average exit velocity. He also has a 12.2 BB% in his career. Pham was involved in a stabbing in a club this offseason, but has recovered. Trent Grisham was ran out of Milwaukee after a bad error in 2019, and the Padres took advantage of this, as they acquired Grisham, who hit 10 home runs with 10 stolen bases and an .808 OPS. Grisham walked 12.3 percent of the time, with a 29.1 ft/s sprint speed. He is also a good defender, with seven outs above average in center. After a 96 OPS+ in 2019, Wil Myers had a career season in 2020. Myers hit 15 home runs with a .959 OPS, and received an MVP vote. Myers cut down on his strikeout rate, down to 25.7 from an awful 34.2 percent in 2019. He had a great .583 xSLG, and a 14.8% barrel rate. Myers\’ 91 mph average exit velocity was his highest in the Statcast era. Jurickson Profar came up as a second baseman, but mostly played left field last year while Pham was out. Like Mateo, he is a former top prospect who is now a utilityman. Last year, Profar had a .278 average with a .771 OPS. While he had just a 27.7% hard hit rate, Profar struck out just 13.9 percent of the time. 

Projection

The Dodgers are still amazing, but the Padres are their first real threat in years. It will be definitely fun to watch their budding rivalry, and the Padres are a team that you can root for. Their all-in approach should be a model for everyone else, and for that, I hope they can win a World Series soon.