CarterHud

 

       It\’s pretty fair to say that the Pirates have taken the role of worst team in baseball away from the Tigers and the Orioles after their disgraceful 2020. They easily had the worst record in the league, and they only had two players with a bWAR over 1.0, and one of them played in just 24 games. And to make things even worse, they sold off basically their whole team in the offseason. At this point, only one promising player exists in Pittsburgh. 

Offseason additions: 3B Todd Frazier, LHP Tyler Anderson, RHP Trevor Cahill, RHP Miguel Yajure, C Michael Perez, OF Dustin Fowler, LHP Chasen Shreve, C Tony Wolters, OF Brian Goodwin, RHP Duane Underwood Jr.

Offseason subtractions: RHP Joe Musgrove, 1B Josh Bell, RHP Jameson Taillon, RHP Trevor Williams, RHP Chris Archer, RHP Nick Tropeano, LHP Derek Holland, RHP Keone Kela, C John Ryan Murphy, IF JT Riddle, IF Jose Osuna.

Trade Deadline 2020 summary

Acquired: None.

Traded: OF Jarrod Dyson.

2020 record: 19-41

2020 placement: 5th

2020 WAR leader (batter): Ke\’Bryan Hayes

2020 WAR leader (pitcher): Steven Brault

Starting Pitchers

Former top pitching prospect Mitch Keller has had reverse seasons to start his career. Starting out in 2019, he had a 7.13 ERA, with a 13.5 H/9 and a 12.2 K/9, plus a great 2.76 xERA. In five starts in 2020, everything seemed to flip for Keller. In five starts, he had a great 2.91 ERA, but had a 6.6 K/9 and a 6.17 xERA. Keller allowed just nine hits in 21.2 innings, but walked 18, for a BB rate of 20.7 percent. Lefty Steven Brault had a career season, with a 3.38 ERA in 42.2 innings, while striking out 38. Brault allowed just 29 hits, for a 6.1 H/9, and also limited batters to an average exit velocity of 85.8 mph. His walk issues remained, as 12.4 percent of batters walked against Brault. After returning from Tommy John Surgery, Chad Kuhl had a 2.52 ERA through his first six games. But, some rough starts afterwards raised his season ERA to 4.27. His underlying numbers were not good, as Kuhl had a 6.70 xERA, with a 14.2 BB%, and a 13.1 barrel rate. Batters went just 2-for-28 with a 38.5 percent whiff rate against Kuhl\’s curveball. Like Kuhl, Tyler Anderson returned in 2020 after missing a lot of 2019. Anderson was on the Giants last year, and had a 4.37 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 59.2 innings, while allowing just five home runs, for a career best 0.8 HR/9. While his 15.8 strikeout percentage was bad and a career low, Anderson made up for it with an 86.8 mph average exit velocity, his best since 2017. In his first MLB season, JT Brubaker stuck out 48 batters in 47.1 innings, with a 4.42 xERA. Brubaker is a sinkerballer, but throws a fastball that got demolished last year, as batters went 9-for-20 with a .650 slugging against the pitch. If the Pirates want to go with a six-man rotation, then veteran Trevor Cahill is available. Cahill, who just turned 33, always seems to alternate between good and bad seasons. Last year was a good year for San Francisco, as Cahill had a 3.24 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 25 innings. Over the years, he has been less and less dependent on his sinker, and throwing his changeup and curveball more. The curve is a good pitch, with a 2982 rpm spin rate, and a 43.8 percent whiff rate. Batters also went 0-for-21 against it. 

Relief Pitchers

At the moment, the Pirates do not have a closer, but Richard Rodriguez is ready to take over. In 2020, Rodriguez had a 2.70 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. He throws a high-spin fastball, and a wipeout slider. Batters went just 1-for-20 with a 63.6 percent whiff rate against the slider in 2020. Rodriguez does have his flaws, though. Batters had a 51% hard hit rate and a 91.8 mph average exit velocity against him in 2020. Kyle Crick has been productive in the past, but only pitched in seven games last year. He allowed one run in 5.2 innings, striking out seven. Crick struggled in 2019, partially thanks to a 15.5 percent walk rate. But, batters had a .177 xBA and an 86.8 mph average exit velocity against him in 52 games. A former first round pick of the Giants, Chris Stratton is an interest case of a pitcher succeeding with the Pirates, and not elsewhere. He pitched in 30 innings last year, and had a 3.90 ERA with 39 strikeouts. He has high spin rates on all of his pitches, excluding his changeup. Stratton\’s curveball had an average spin rate of 3088 rpm in 2020. An elbow injury cost Michael Feliz just about all of 2020. In the three games he did play in, Feliz allowed six runs in 1.2 innings. He was effective in 2019, striking out 73 in 56.1 innings, with a .200 xBA against. His slider had a 48.2 percent whiff rate, and a .145 xBA against. After struggling with the Rockies, lefty Sam Howard found a job with the Pirates, and struck out 27 batters in 21 innings. Howard also had a 3.86 ERA and a 3.85 xERA. His main pitch is a slider, which had a .165 xBA and a 39.4 percent whiff rate. Non-roster invitee Chasen Shreve has a good chance to make the team after he struck out 34 in 25 innings for the Mets. Shreve also had a 3.96 ERA, with a 3.40 xERA, and his split finger struck out 28 batters with a 54.4 percent whiff rate. A 29th round pick back in 2016, Geoff Hartlieb had a 3.63 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 22.1 innings last year. Unfortunately, he also walked 19 batters. Hartlieb allowed just two barrels all season, for a 3.3 barrel percentage, and he had a .316 xSLG against. 21 year old Rule-5 pick Luis Oviedo has a good chance at the roster, although he struggled in 2019, with a 5.38 ERA in 87 innings. As a 19 year old in Single-A and Low-A in 2018, Oviedo had a 2.05 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 57 innings. Acquired from New York for Jameson Taillon, Miguel Yajure allowed one run in seven innings last year, while striking out eight. Another option is Duane Underwood Jr., who was recently acquired from Chicago. Underwood struck out 27 batters but allowed 25 hits in 20.2 innings in 2020. 

Catchers

One of the better hitters on the Pirates last year was Jacob Stallings, who finished second on the team in WAR. The sad part is that Stallings had just a 92 OPS+. In 42 games, he hit three home runs with a .702 OPS. He had a .207 xBA, and with a 23.5 ft/s sprint speed, Stallings is one of baseball\’s slowest players. The fight to be his backup is between Michael Perez and Tony Wolters. Perez has played in 84 games over the past three years for the Rays, with a .600 OPS and a 67 OPS+. Wolters is not much better, as he had a .550 OPS last year, and a .642 OPS in his career. Wolters was a starter for the Rockies in the past, so he has the edge based off of experience. 

Infielders

The only point of the Pirates season right now is for Ke\’Bryan Hayes to develop, and maybe win Rookie of the Year. Hayes debuted last year, and played in 24 games, and was good enough to finish 6th in Rookie of the Year voting, despite not even using his rookie eligibility. Hayes hit five home runs with a .376 average and a 1.124 OPS. He was even great at third base defensively, with three outs above average. Of course, the sample size was very small, so Pirates fans should be a little bit cautiously optimistic towards Hayes. With Josh Bell gone and Hayes taking over his spot at third, Colin Moran will move from DH to 1B full-time. Moran was the second best Pirate hitter last year, with a team leading 10 home runs, plus a .797 OPS. He had a 91.9 mph average exit velocity, and a 47.2 hard hit percentage. The next guy to go is probably going to be Adam Frazier, who survived trade talks. Frazier had a rough 2020, as he had a career worst OPS of .661. His hard percentage also dropped to just 25.1 percent. Frazier only struck out 15.2 percent of the time, and he had seven outs above average. He normally hits about .270, but his average was just .230 last year. Kevin Newman showed that he could be an above-average shortstop in 2019, as he hit 12 home runs with 16 stolen bases, a .308 average and an .800 OPS. But all of that progress was lost in 2020, as Newman had a .556 OPS in 44 games, with an 85.3 mph average exit velocity, and a .251 wOBA. At the very least, he does not strike out, as Newman had a 12.2 percent K rate in 2020. He is fighting with Erik Gonzalez for the starting job, and the over will be the backup utility infielder. Gonzalez had a .614 OPS with just a .255 OBP last year. While Gonzalez had three outs above average between second base and shortstop, he walked just 4.1 percent of the time. Veteran Todd Frazier is on a minor league deal, but he could be the backup corner infielder. Frazier had just four home runs in 45 games last year, but he hit 21 home runs with a .772 OPS in 2019 for the Mets. So far in Spring Training, he has a 1.056 OPS. 

Outfielders

Bryan Reynolds had a very underrated rookie season in 2019, finishing 4th in Rookie of the Year voting with a .314 average and an .880 OPS. Reynolds really fell off in 2020, as he hit .189 with a .632 OPS. He struck out over 27 percent of the time, but did walk over a tenth of the time. Reynolds had one out above average, and a decent sprint speed of 28.2 ft/s. Entering his 8th season in Pittsburgh is Gregory Polanco, who was awful in 2020. Polanco hit .153 with a .214 OBP and a .539 OBP. Polanco somehow managed to strikeout at a 37.4 percent rate. One silver lining is that he hits the ball hard, with a 92.9 mph average exit velocity, and a 51.6 hard hit percentage, the latter being a 20% increase from 2019. The center field fight is more unclear. Cole Tucker was originally a shortstop, but spent last year in the outfield. Tucker has great speed, with a 28.5 ft/s sprint speed. But in 38 games last year, Tucker had a .527 OPS. In 2019 at AAA, Tucker stole 11 bases with a .759 OPS. Another option is Anthony Alford, who was stuck in an outfield logjam for years in Toronto. Alford stole three bases in 13 games for the Blue Jays, before the Pirates claimed him off waivers. He then went 3-for-12 with a home run in five games, but then broke his elbow. Dustin Fowler can also play center. He had a .610 OPS for the A\’s in 2018, but did not play in the majors in 2019 or 2020. At AAA in 2019, Fowler hit 25 home runs with 12 stolen bases and an .810 OPS.

Projection

Yeah, you know where this is going. The Pirates are just awful. Maybe, just maybe, they can find some hidden gems in 2021 like the Orioles have done with multiple players, and even the Tigers did with Willi Castro last year. The season will not be pretty, and a last place finish is inevitable, but maybe they can have some fun?

 

       Entering the offseason, no team had a goal as clear as the Phillies did. After their bullpen combined for an ERA over 7.00 in 2020, an obvious change was needed. While after the offseason, they still don\’t have an elite bullpen, they easily have the most improved bullpen. Plus, after owner John Middleton looked like he would cheap out, the team was able to retain JT Realmuto, and not trade Zack Wheeler. The big question entering the season is obvious: does the curse of the Phillies bullpen still remain? 

Offseason additions: RHP Archie Bradley, LHP Jose Alvarado, RHP Chase Anderson, LHP Matt Moore, RHP Sam Coonrod, IF Brad Miller, RHP Brandon Kintzler, OF Matt Joyce, LHP Tony Watson, RHP Ivan Nova, RHP Hector Rondon, OF Odubel Herrera.

Offseason subtractions: RHP Brandon Workman, RHP Jake Arrieta, LHP Jose Alvarez, RHP Blake Parker, RHP Tommy Hunter, RHP David Phelps, RHP Heath Hembree, OF Jay Bruce, IF Neil Walker, LHP Garrett Cleavinger.

Trade Deadline 2020 summary

Acquired: RHP Brandon Workman, RHP David Phelps, RHP Heath Hembree, RHP David Hale.

Traded: RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Connor Seabold, RHP Edgar Garcia, RHP Addison Russ.

2020 record: 28-32

2020 placement: 4th

2020 WAR leader (batter): Bryce Harper

2020 WAR leader (pitcher): Zack Wheeler

Starting Pitchers

After a bit of a down season in 2019, Aaron Nola rebounded back last year, although he was not as good as he was when he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2018. Nola had a 3.28 ERA while striking out 96 batters in 71.1 innings. He allowed just 54 hits, for a 6.8 H/9. Nola\’s slow curveball had a .187 average against with a 41.8% whiff rate. He had help last year in the form of Zack Wheeler, who struck out 195 batters in 2019, but only had 53 in 71 innings in 2020, for a 6.7 K/9. Wheeler had a 2.92 ERA with an 85.7 mph average exit velocity. He also had an NL best HR/9, at 0.4. Third starter Zach Eflin made a lot of progress in 2020, as after he had a 18.3 K% in 2019, he struck out 70 batters in 59 innings, raising that to 28.6%. Eflin also had a 3.97 ERA, and a 3.30 xERA. While both his sinker and slider, his two most common pitches, had an average against over .300, Eflin\’s curveball had a .100 average against and a 43.9% whiff rate. Once MLB\’s top prospect and a young star with the Rays back in 2013, Matt Moore\’s career derailed afterwards. But, he spent 2020 in Japan, and pitched well enough to get an MLB contract with the Phillies. Moore had a 2.65 ERA with 98 strikeouts in 85 innings. We last saw him pitch in the MLB with the Tigers in 2019, when he didn\’t allow a run in 10 innings, through two starts before getting injured. Veteran Chase Anderson is the favorite at the moment for the fifth starter job. Anderson had a 3.83 ERA over four seasons in Milwaukee, but was awful with Toronto in 2020. Anderson had a 7.22 ERA in 33.2 innings, but did strikeout 38 batters. He somehow allowed 11 home runs last year, with a .288 xBA and a .522 xSLG against. Also available in the competition is top prospect Spencer Howard, who had a 2.03 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 71 innings in the minors in 2019. Howard debuted last year, but had a 5.92 ERA through six starts. His slider had a 40.7% whiff rate. Howard has made just six starts in AA, and none in AAA, so he should start in the minors. Also in the mix is Vince Velasquez, but he could easily go to the bullpen. Velasquez had a 5.56 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 34 innings in 2019. He has control issues, as he walked 11% of batters last year. He can be a good reliever, although starting might be out of the question now. 

Relief Pitchers

Despite a lot of changes made to the bullpen, Hector Neris could still keep his job as Phillies closer. Neris struck out 27 batters in 21.2 innings, while saving five games. Neris also had a 4.57 ERA and a 1.708 WHIP. His 12.6 percent walk rate was a career worst. Neris\’ main pitch in a split finger, which had a .198 xBA against and a 49.5% whiff rate last year. Another closing option is Archie Bradley, who was the closer in Arizona before a trade to Cincinnati. He had a 4.22 ERA with the Diamondbacks, but six good outings with the Reds lowered his season total to 2.95. Bradley\’s best pitch is a mid-to-high-80s changeup, which batters went 1-for-8 against last year. His curveball\’s whiff rate was cut in half from 2019, down to a bad 16.1% last year. Lefty Jose Alvarado throws a sinker that averaged over 98 mph in 2019. He missed a lot of 2019 and 2020 with injuries, but was elite in 2018. In nine games last year, Alvarado had a 6.00 ERA with 13 strikeouts. He is entering his fifth MLB season, and he won\’t turn 26 until May 21st. Former Marlins and Twins closer Brandon Kintzler is in camp on a minor league deal. He saved 12 games in 24.1 innings for Miami last year, with a 2.22 ERA. He struck out just 14 batters, for a low 13.9% K rate. About three quarters of the time, Kintzler throws a sinker, and he had a 56.6% groundball rate. Another non-roster invitee is lefty Tony Watson, who has had an ERA+ over 100 in every season since 2012. For the Giants last year, Watson had a 2.50 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 18 innings. He walked just 4.1 percent of batters as well. Sam Coonrod throws a fastball that averaged over 98 mph last year. The pitch also had a 34.1% whiff rate. Coonrod saved three games for San Francisco last year, but had a 9.82 ERA in 18 games, while walking 9.9 percent of batters. A 10th round pick back in 2017, Connor Brogdon was one of the most productive Phillies relievers last year. In his first season, Brogdon had a 3.97 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 11.1 innings. All three of his pitches had an average against under .200. Brogdon also had a 2.34 xERA, and a .161 xBA against. Right-hander David Hale had a 3.71 ERA in 17 innings last year, but his underlying numbers were much worse. Hale had a 6.05 xERA, and a .308 xBA against. Lefty JoJo Romero allowed just one run in 10.2 innings in the 2019 Arizona Fall League, and then pitched 10.2 innings in the MLB last year. Romero allowed nine earned runs for a 7.59 ERA. Veteran Hector Rondon struck out 23 batters in 20 innings last year, but he had a 7.65 ERA. Rondon was a productive reliever and closer for the Cubs and Astros in the past, having an ERA+ over 100 from 2014 to 2019. 

Catchers

As suitors thinned out near the end, the Phillies were able to bring back JT Realmuto, who is the top catcher in baseball. He is both an elite defender, and an above-average hitter. The-soon-to-be 30 year JT Realmuto hit 11 home runs with four stolen bases, a .266 average and an .840 OPS. He increased his walk rate to a career high 8.2%. In his career, he has won two Silver Sluggers and a Gold Glove, although neither came in 2020. Switch-hitter Andrew Knapp hit two home runs in 33 games, and he had an .849 OPS. Knapp walked a career high 16.9% of the time, and he had a .404 OBP. Realmuto has a broken thumb, and if he is not healthy, then Jeff Mathis can make the team. Mathis is a great defensive backstop, but he may be the worst hitter ever (no exaggeration). Mathis has a .533 OPS in his career. 

Infielders

The Phillies have an all-around, really solid infielder. First baseman Rhys Hoskins is not the best defensively, with -5 outs above average there in 2020, but he had one OAA in 2019. He hit 10 home runs with a .384 OBP and an .887 OPS. That OBP was so high thanks to a 15.7 percent walk rate. He also had a high barrel percentage of 14.8%. Jean Segura can play shortstop and third base, as well as second, where he is expected to start. Segura hit seven home runs with a .769 OPS, and four outs above average last year. Segura\’s average sprint speed of 28.3 ft/s was his best since 2016. One concerning factor was that his strikeout rate nearly doubled, up to 20.7 percent. The Phillies expected a bounce back from Didi Gregorius after he struggled while returning from Tommy John surgery in 2019. Their bet paid off, as Gregorius had 10 home runs with a .284 average and an .827 OPS. While he struck out just 11.8% of the time last year, two concerning factors are his 83.8 mph average exit velocity, and his -7 outs above average. Third baseman Alec Bohm finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting after a solid first season. He hit just four home runs in 44 games, but Bohm had a .338 average, a .400 OBP and an .881 OPS. He hit .337 against fastballs, and .378 against breaking balls, with an average exit velocity over 90 mph against both. Infielder Brad Miller comes back to the Phillies, where he was great in 2019. In 66 games for Philadelphia, Miller hit 12 home runs with a .941 OPS. He spent 2020 with the Cardinals, where he hit seven home runs with an .807 OPS. Miller had a 14.6 BB%, his best since 2017. Scott Kingery broke out in 2019, hitting 19 home runs with 15 stolen bases, but he regressed in 36 games last year, not stealing a base with a .159 average and a .511 OPS. Kingery can play second base, third base, shortstop and center field, but he had -4 outs above average at second last year. He also had a 28.6 ft/s sprint speed.

Outfielders

In 2020, Bryce Harper made up for what was a little bit disappointing first season as a Phillie. Harper hit 13 home runs with eight stolen bases, a .420 OPS and a .962 OPS. Harper walked over 20 percent of the time, for a league leading 49 walks. Harper also had a .308 xBA, and a .656 xSLG. He also had a 92.5 mph average exit velocity, and his 17.6 percent K rate was a career low. The only other lock in the outfield is Andrew McCutchen in left field. The former MVP is now 34, and obviously not the player he once was. He hit 10 home runs with four stolen bases last year, with a .757 OPS. McCutchen\’s .273 xBA was his best since 2017, although his 9.1 percent walk rate was his lowest in the Statcast era. 2017 8th overall pick Adam Haseley may be off the Opening Day roster thanks to an injury. In 40 games last year, he had a .278 average with a .690 OPS. At 56.1%, his groundball rate was way too high for a hitter. With an 86.6 mph exit velocity and a 31.8 percent hard hit rate, Haseley does not hit the ball hard enough. Roman Quinn has amazing speed, but with a .576 OPS last year, he is an awful hitter. Quinn swiped 12 bags, with an amazing average sprint speed of 30.5 ft/s. The only person who could rival that is Arizona\’s Tim Locastro. Quinn also had three outs above average in center field. Veteran Matt Joyce is more of a corner outfielder than a center fielder. He had an .858 OPS in 2019 for the Braves, but hit just two home runs with a .682 OPS for Miami last year. Joyce is still good at drawing walks, with a 13.5% BB rate last year. Odubel Herrera was an all-star for the Phillies in 2016, but was released in 2019 after a Domestic Violence arrest. He is back now, trying to win the center field job back. 

Projection

The Phillies are better than people give them credit for. The lineup is definitely above-average, and the rotation is top-heavy, but good. The bullpen is where things will get controversial. It isn\’t baseball\’s worst. But, it still is not good. The Phillies could easily be a playoff team, but with the big improvements the rival Mets had in the offseason, they are not one at the moment. 

 

       My boldest prediction last year, maybe in the last few years was that the 2020 Athletics would not make the playoffs and finish 4th in the division, even after they were expanded. Yeah, I was wrong. It wasn\’t even close. The A\’s were 12 games over .500, and they had to be well under .500 to miss. I was not a big fan of the A\’s offseason, but their bullpen is still great, even after losing Liam Hendriks.

Offseason additions: RHP Trevor Rosenthal, 1B Mitch Moreland, RHP Sergio Romo, IF Elvis Andrus, LHP Adam Kolarek, IF Jed Lowrie, C Aramis Garcia.

Offseason subtractions: RHP Liam Hendriks, DH Khris Davis, IF Marcus Semien, LHP Mike Minor, RHP Joakim Soria, IF Tommy La Stella, OF Robbie Grossman, IF Jake Lamb, LHP TJ McFarland, IF Sheldon Neuse, C Jonah Heim.

2020 Trade Deadline summary

Acquired: IF Tommy La Stella.

Traded: IF Franklin Barreto.

2020 record: 36-24

2020 placement: 1st

2020 WAR leader (batter): Mark Canha

2020 WAR leader (pitcher): Chris Bassitt

Starting Pitchers

As a unit, the A\’s did not have a great rotation last year, as Chris Bassitt carried the starters. Bassitt was the only starter with an ERA under 4.00, and was well under 4.00, at 2.29. He struck out 55 batters in 63 innings, with a career low 6.5% walk rate. Sean Manaea had his first bad since 2017, as he finished with a 4.50 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 54 innings. On the good side, Manaea had a 3.93 xERA and a walk rate of just 3.6%. Moving back to the bad, Manaea allowed an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph, and the curveball that he developed was slugged .800 against with a 24.5% whiff rate, which is low for a curveball. 23 year old former top prospect Jesus Luzardo had a 4.12 ERA in 59 innings, striking out 59. Both his changeup and his curveball had a whiff rate over 40%. In eight home games, Luzardo had a 2.40 ERA, but he had a 8.15 ERA in four road games. Returning from a PED-tainted career season, Frankie Montas had his worst year as a starter, with a 5.30 ERA in 53 innings, but he did strike out 60. Montas throws a fastball that averaged 95.9 mph, and batters hit .170 with 23 strikeouts against it. He throws his sinker mostly against lefties, but they hit .356 against the pitch. The Athletics brought back Mike Fiers after he spent months as a free agent. A 35 year old of G-shaped beards and Astros fame, Fiers had just 37 strikeouts in 59 innings last year. His 4.58 ERA and 90 ERA+ was his worst since 2017. Fiers made up for his low 14.4 K% with a 6.2 BB%. His fastball may have averaged 88 miles per hour with an 11.5 percent whiff rate, but it didn\’t stop it from having a .205 average against and a .361 slugging against. Top prospect AJ Puk is back after missing 2020 with shoulder surgery. Puk debuted in 2019, with 13 strikeouts and a 3.18 ERA in 11.1 innings. His fastball averaged 97.1 mph, and he limited batters to a .175 expected batting average. 

Relief Pitchers

Liam Hendriks, potentially baseball\’s best reliever, is out the door, and so is 2020 set-up man Joakim Soria. The replacement closer is Trevor Rosenthal, who the A\’s signed after he had a bundle of suitors. Rosenthal was infamously a nightmare in 2019, walking 26 batters in 15.1 innings with a 13.50 ERA. He rebounded in 2020, and what a rebound it was, as he had a 1.90 ERA with 38 strikeouts and a 0.845 WHIP in 23.2 innings. He was great after a midseason trade to San Diego, striking out 17 and not allowing a run in 10 innings. Assisted by his 100 mph fastball, Rosenthal limited batters to just a .131 xBA. Lefty Jake Diekman has had productive seasons before, but none like 2020. Diekman allowed just one earned run in 21.1 innings, for 0.42 ERA. He struck out 31 batters, and righties (yes, righties) hit .070 with a .253 OPS against him. Diekman had a .132 xBA and a .242 xSLG against, but his walk issues remained, as they happened at a 14.3% rate. 38 year old Sergio Romo is entering his 14th season in the league for his sixth team, and he is still productive. Romo struck out 23 in 20 innings with a 4.05 ERA for the Twins last year. While his fastball velocity was down to just 85.8 mph on average, Romo\’s slider had a .174 average against with a 30.6% whiff rate and a 2913 rpm spin rate. Workhorse 36 year old Yusmeiro Petit pitched in 80 games in 2019, and 26 in 2020. In the latter year he had a 1.66 ERA with 17 strikeouts. Since 2015, Petit has a walk rate of just 4.8 percent, and his cutter had a .220 xBA against with a 38% whiff rate and a 79 mph average exit velocity. The most underrated member of the A\’s bullpen is JB Wendelken, a 27 year old right who has a five pitch mix. He had a 1.80 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 25 innings, and limited batters to a .183 xBA. Wendelken also had an 86 mph average exit velocity against, and his slider struck out 10 batters with a .125 slugging against. Coming over from the Dodgers is lefty Adam Kolarek, who limited fellow lefties to a .203 OPS in 2020. Kolarek had a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings, and since joining the Dodgers mid-way through 2019, he had a 0.88 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 30.2 innings. Kolarek also had a high groundball rate of 63.6%. Lou Trivino had a great rookie season in 2018, before regressing in 2019. He got better in 2020, but still wasn\’t at his 2018 record. He had a 3.86 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Trivino also had a .199 xBA and a 3.58 xERA, while his cutter had a .118 average against with a 42.9% whiff rate. A 3rd round pick in 2011 by the Red Sox, 28 year old Jordan Weems finally made his MLB debut in 2020. He throws a fastball that averaged 95.3 mph, and had 2.4 inches of vertical movement above average. He had a 3.21 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 14 innings, while his 1307 rpm changeup had a 61.9% whiff rate. Burch Smith was a viable option in six games, with 13 strikeouts in 12 innings and a 2.25 ERA. Smith also had a 2.04 xERA, a .180 xBA and a 0.667 WHIP. 

Catchers

Sean Murphy\’s development from top catching prospect in the league to MLB starter has been just what A\’s fans imagined it would be like. Murphy has a cannon, with a pop time of 1.92 seconds. He finished 4th in AL Rookie of the Year voting with seven home runs and an .821 OPS. That OPS was heavily assisted by a very high 17.1% walk rate. Murphy also hits the ball hard, with an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph. The backup catcher job is less cut-and-dry. Aramis Garcia has hit six home runs in 37 career games, but he has a .689 OPS. But at AAA in 2019, Garcia hit 16 home runs with an .831 OPS. He is the favorite for the job after coming over in a trade with the Rangers. Left-handed hitter Austin Allen played in 14 games for the A\’s last year. He is not a good hitter, going 6-for-31 with a .541 OPS last year.

Infielders

Even though he played in all 60 games, Matt Olson had the worst year of his career. He hit 14 home runs, but also had a .195 average and a .734 OPS. His strikeout rate increased, up to an unhealthy 31.4%. Olson is a great defender at first base, but he had zero outs above average in 2020. Defensive runs saved were nicer to Olson, as he had five in that category. On the plus side, Olson had an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph and a 13.9% walk rate. Tony Kemp is an above-average defender, and he can play corner outfield as well as second base. He stole three bases with a .664 OPS in 49 games last year. He walked more times than he struck out. I could see the A\’s explore a trade for a second baseman, like they did with Tommy La Stella last trade deadline. In camp on a minor league deal is Jed Lowrie, who is banged up from knee surgery, and played in just nine games from 2019-2020. Lowrie was an all-star at second for the A\’s in 2018, so there is some hope. The team decided to replace Marcus Semien with an expensive option in Elvis Andrus, something that I was not in approval of. Andrus was going to lose the Rangers shortstop job if he was not traded, which isn\’t a good sign. He had a .582 OPS in 29 games last year, and his speed and defense has regressed. Andrus had a below-average 26.3 ft/s sprint speed, and -2 outs above average. Elite defender Matt Chapman also increased his strikeout rate, up to 35.5%. He hit 10 home runs with an .812 OPS. Chapman also had an average exit velocity of 93.6 mph, with an 18 barrel percentage, and a 51.7% hard hit rate. He had a high 38.2 line drive percentage, but a scary low .276 OBP. Utilityman Chad Pinder played second and third base plus corner outfield last year, and has played first base, shortstop and center field in the past. Pinder also played a lot of third when Chapman was injured at the end of the season. He had a .688 OPS and a 93 OPS+, plus an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph. Mitch Moreland has won a Gold Glove before, and is a good enough defender at first base to be a starter, but with Olson there, he will be the starting DH. Moreland had a 1.177 OPS in 22 games for the Red Sox last year, but had a .609 OPS after a trade to San Diego. It evened out to an .894 OPS. Moreland also had a .551 OPS with a 14.4 barrel percentage. 

Outfielders

Ramon Laureano is a great defensive center fielder, and his offense goes under-the-radar. Laureano had an .860 OPS in 2019, but that fell to .704 in 2020. He still hit six home runs with two stolen bases, and his OPS+ was a league average 100. He also had three outs above average in center, and walked 10.8% of the time. With Robbie Grossman off to Detroit, you can expect Mark Canha to be the full-time left fielder. Canha can play all three outfield positions plus first base, and he had a .795 OPS with a 126 OPS+ in 2020. He also had a 15.2% walk rate with one out above average at each corner outfield position. Canha really struggled against breaking balls, going 3-for-53 with 20 strikeouts in at-bats ending with one. Stephen Piscotty remains the starting right fielder, although his numbers were bad last year, to say the least. He struck out 31% of the time while only walking at a 5.3 percent rate, and he had a whiff rate over 30% to fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches. Piscotty also had a .629 OPS and a .398 xSLG. Something needs to change for him in 2021. The fourth outfielder will likely be Seth Brown, a 28 year old who played in seven games last year, but went 0-for-5. Brown debuted in 2019, hitting .293 with an .815 OPS in 26 games. In 112 AAA games in 2019, Brown hit 37 home runs with a .986 OPS. I\’d say he\’s earned this opportunity. Rule 5 pick Ka\’ai Tom was a 5th round pick by Cleveland in 2015. He spent 2019 between AA and AAA, and hit 23 home runs with five stolen bases, a .290 average and a .912 OPS. 51 of his 132 games were at Triple-A, and Tom hit nine home runs with a .933 OPS there. 

Much more than last year\’s team, the 2021 A\’s are flawed. They did not do a great job at filling the holes for their departing players on offense, and while the bullpen reconstruction was fine, it wasn\’t enough to make the offseason a success. With that said, the Athletics are still the best team in the division. I won\’t make the same mistake of betting against them as I did last year. This team will win the AL West once again. 

From Getty Images

 

       The 2019 Yankees tradition of constant injuries carried over to 2020, but with their offseason plan, the team made it clear that they think they can fix it. Out went steady starters Masahiro Tanaka and JA Happ, and in came two risky former aces who combined for one inning pitched in 2020. The 2021 team is the definition of high risk, high reward. Being a playoff team seems like a definite right now, but is this team good enough to win a World Series?

Offseason additions: RHP Corey Kluber, RHP Jameson Taillon, LHP Justin Wilson, RHP Darren O\’Day, OF Jay Bruce, IF Derek Dietrich, C Robinson Chirinos, RHP Nick Goody, RHP Kyle Barraclough, RHP Jhoulys Chacin, LHP Lucas Luetge.

Offseason subtractions: RHP Masahiro Tanaka, LHP James Paxton, RHP Adam Ottavino, LHP JA Happ, RHP Jonathan Holder, C Erik Kratz, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Ben Heller, RHP Miguel Yajure.

2020 Trade Deadline summary

Acquired: None.

Traded: None.

2020 record: 33-27

2020 placement: 2nd

2020 WAR leader (batter): DJ LeMahieu

2020 WAR leader (pitcher): Gerrit Cole

Starting Pitchers

The only starter that the Yankees know what they are going to get from is Gerrit Cole, who isn\’t an injury or poor play risk, like the rest of the rotation. Cole started his first Yankees season off cold, but progressively got better. He finished with a 2.84 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 73 innings. Cole actually had two complete games, but neither was a complete nine innings; one was seven, and the other was five. He had a .196 xBA against and a 3.08 xERA. The Yankees will try to build up Corey Kluber, who missed most of 2019 with a broken arm after a comebacker, and tore his shoulder after the first inning of the 2020 season. Kluber was struggling in 2019 before the injury, with a 5.80 ERA through seven starts. Kluber finished third in Cy Young voting in 2018, his last full season. The Yankees also acquired former Pirate Jameson Taillon in the offseason, who missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 with Tommy John surgery. Taillon has a 3.67 ERA in 82 career starts. In seven 2019 starts, Taillon developed his slider more, a pitch that batters slugged .396 against. The Yankees will hopefully see former Cy Young finalist Luis Severino back midseason from Tommy John surgery. Severino struck out 17 batters with a 1.50 ERA in 12 innings at the tail end of 2019. Big lefty Jordan Montgomery had a 5.11 ERA in 44 innings, but he struck out 47 batters with a career low 4.7% walk rate, helping lower his xERA to 3.87. Montgomery also was great at forcing soft contact, with an average exit velocity against of 84.6 mph. At the moment, he seems to have locked up the fourth starter job. The fifth starter role is more of a fight, mainly between Domingo German and Deivi Garcia, and the loser could go to the bullpen. The 21 year old Garcia was great through his first four starts, but struggled in his last two, raising his season ERA to 4.98. He walked just 4.1 percent of batters, and while his changeup showed promise, with a .200 slugging against, his slider got lit up, as batters went 5-for-10 with two home runs against it. German missed the 2019 postseason and all of 2020 serving a domestic violence suspension, but he is back now and looking great in Spring Training. Through five innings this month, he has not allowed a run, with just two hits and seven strikeouts. He was in the middle of a career year in 2019 before getting suspended, with an 18-4 record (I don\’t care about wins and losses but this was too good not to share), a 4.03 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 143 innings. Since he has not pitched in a long time, I could see the Yankees throwing German in the bullpen to start.

Relief Pitchers

While he missed some time with COVID-19, Aroldis Chapman was great in the 13 games he did play, striking out 22 in 11.2 innings. If his 3.09 ERA looks too high for you, his 2.68 xERA was better. Batters went 2-for-21 against his fastball, which had an average velocity of 97.8 mph. Batters had a .160 xBA and a .308 xSLG against Chapman as well. From 2012 to 2019, Chapman saved as least 30 games seven times. The Yankees will miss set-up man Zack Britton for at least the first month or two of the season. Britton had a 1.89 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 19 innings. His main pitch is a sinker, which helped his insanely high 71.7% groundball rate. In Britton\’s absence, Chad Green will have to step up. Green had 17 strikeouts and a 0.71 ERA through his first nine games, but some rough games afterwards raised his ERA to 3.51. Green had 32 strikeouts in 25.2 innings, with a 2.24 xERA and a .161 xBA. The Yankees traded Adam Ottavino to the rival Red Sox, but signed both Justin Wilson and Darren O\’Day with the money cleared up by the trade. The left-handed Wilson was a Yankee in 2015, before getting traded to Detroit for Green and Luis Cessa. Wilson pitched for the Mets in 2020, finishing with a 3.66 ERA, a 3.45 xERA and 23 strikeouts in 19.2 innings. Wilson walked 10.5 percent of batters, which was an improvement, but still not great. He also limited batters to an 84.5 mph average exit velocity. O\’Day was in the AL East with the Orioles from 2012 to 2018, but was with the Braves last year. He had a 1.10 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 16.1 innings, and a .183 xBA against. O\’Day\’s fastball only averaged 86 miles per hour, but batters went 2-for-23 against it last year. 26 year old Jonathan Loaisiga has all the tools to be a great reliever, he just has to put it all together. He throws a high-90s fastball with a high-spin curveball, and limited batters to an exit velocity of 84.6 mph. Luis Cessa has improved a lot since moving from spot starter to multi-inning relief. His best season came in 2020, as he had a 3.32 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 21.2 innings. Since moving to the bullpen, Cessa has thrown his slider more, up to a career high 54.4% in 2020. The pitch had a .180 average against and a 35.1% whiff rate. Assuming one of Garcia/German makes the bullpen, there is one last spot up for grabs. Nick Nelson throws a fastball that averages 96 miles an hour, and pitched in 20.2 innings last year. His 12.2% walk rate was not ideal. Michael King had a 4.74 xERA and 26 strikeouts in 26.2 innings last year, but he also had a 7.76 ERA. The star of Yankees Spring Training so far has been former Mariner Lucas Luetge, who hasn\’t pitched in the MLB since 2015. Luetge has struck out eight batters in three shutout innings so far. 

Catchers

There is no question about it, the X-factor for the Yankees in 2021 is Gary Sanchez. The two-time all-star hit .147 with a .618 OPS in 49 games last year, but he did hit 10 home runs. Sanchez struck out 36% of the time, and he had a .191 xBA. Sanchez still had a very high 91.8 mph average exit velocity, and a 17.4 barrel percentage. Sanchez has hit three home runs in seven Spring games so far. Kyle Higashioka acted as Cole\’s personal catcher towards the end of the 2020 season, and had a .771 OPS. He is a better defender than Sanchez, and the Cole connection should keep him on the roster. The third catcher is veteran Robinson Chirinos, who has a .755 OPS over nine seasons.

Infielders

The Yankees were able to keep their infield intact, which is what they wanted after the past two seasons. Luke Voit was the weakling of the group in 2019, but hit a league leading 22 home runs in 2020, one more than he had in 2019, in 62 less games. Voit finished 9th in MVP voting, and had a .948 OPS with a .584 xSLG. With -3 outs above average, he is a below-average defender at first base. For a good portion of the season, Voit and DJ LeMahieu carried the Yankees\’ lineup. LeMahieu hit .364, winning his second batting title, and first in the American League. LeMahieu also led the league with a .421 OBP, and a 1.011 OPS. He won his second Silver Slugger, and finished 3rd in AL MVP voting, while striking out just 9.7 percent of the time. After hitting 38 home runs in 2019, Gleyber Torres took a big step back in 2020, hitting just three with a .724 OPS. Torres is a below-average defender at shortstop, but can make a great play every once in a while. He also had a positive walk rate of 13.8% last year. Gio Urshela\’s defense is an interesting case of analytics versus the eye test. By the eye test, Urshela\’s defense is great, while analytics aren\’t a huge fan. He was great in 2020, with a 2.1 bWAR, finishing third on the team. Urshela had an .858 OPS, with a .311 xBA while only striking out 14.4 percent of the time. His 10.3 walk rate was a career high. Tyler Wade played in 52 of the Yankees\’ 60 games last year, and he had a 28.2 ft/s sprint speed and four outs above average. He can play the outfield, but also three of the four infield positions. Wade is not a good hitter, with a .170 average and a .595 OPS in 2020. Non-roster invitee Derek Dietrich hit five home runs with an .806 OPS in 25 games for the Rangers last year, and can play second and third base, plus corner outfield. Jay Bruce can also be a bench bat option and play first base. He is 5-for-11 with two home runs this spring. 

Outfielders

For the third season in a row, we are entering wondering if we will see Aaron Judge stay healthy. Judge played in just 28 games last year, and hit nine home runs with an .891 OPS. Judge also had a .534 xSLG, and an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph. He still strikes out too much, at a 28.1% rate, and his 8.8 percent walk rate in 2020 was a career low. Speaking of walks, switch-hitter Aaron Hicks is better at walking than he is at getting hits. Hicks had 38 hits in 2020, and walked 41 times, for an absurd 19.4% walk rate. He only hit six home runs with four stolen bases and a .793 OPS last year. That OPS was inflated by all of those walks. Hicks also hit just .194 with a 44.3% whiff rate against breaking balls. Despite an injury scare a few days ago, Clint Frazier should be the Opening Day left fielder. In 39 games, Frazier hit nine home runs with a .905 OPS and a 15.6% walk rate. Frazier also improved from maybe the league\’s worst defender in 2019, to a Gold Glove finalist while filling in for Judge last year. Back for his 14th season in pinstripes is Brett Gardner, who re-signed a week into Spring Training. Gardner did have a weak season in 2020, but he still had a .747 OPS and a 108 OPS+. Gardner also walked 16.5 percent of the time, and can play all three outfield positions. When the Yankees have so many outfield injuries, Gardner has always been healthy, which is a relief to this team. Mike Tauchman had a great breakout season in 2019, but was terrible offensively last year, hitting no home runs with six stolen bases and a .648 OPS. He is an above-average defender in left, center and right. Tauchman oddly couldn\’t hit fastballs last year, with a .189 average and a .264 slugging against heaters. Giancarlo Stanton played in just 23 games, but he was great in them, with a 16 BB%, an 18.4% barrel percentage, and an .887 OPS. Stanton was the team\’s MVP in the playoffs, hitting six home runs, and he had a 1.381 OPS in the ALDS. He lowered his K rate to a still too high 28.7%. 

This is not the best Yankees team that we have seen in recent years, but you can\’t say that they are worse than they were at the end of last year. The rotation looks better, the bullpen is not as weak as it was, and bounce back years from Sanchez and Torres are in the works, while Judge and Stanton may actually be healthy this year. Yes, this is a playoff team. 

 

       Two words: Steve Cohen. The man bought the Mets, and instantly helped transform them into a legitimate contender. Of course, like everything with the Mets, there was some controversy, as Jared Porter came and went in ugly fashion. And while the end of the offseason was frustrating for some Mets fans, they have to realize that the team got significantly better, and richer in the offseason. Now if they can extend some players, they are ready to go for Opening Day.

Offseason additions: SS Francisco Lindor, RHP Carlos Carrasco, C James McCann, RHP Trevor May, RHP Taijuan Walker, IF Jonathan Villar, OF Kevin Pillar, OF Albert Almora, LHP Aaron Loup, LHP Joey Lucchesi, RHP Jordan Yamamoto, LHP Stephen Tarpley, RHP Jacob Barnes, OF Mallex Smith, IF Jose Peraza, RHP Arodys Vizcaino, LHP Mike Montgomery, C Caleb Joseph, RHP Tommy Hunter, LHP Jerry Blevins, RHP Sean Reid-Foley.

Offseason subtractions: C Wilson Ramos, SS Andres Gimenez, SS Amed Rosario, 3B Todd Frazier, OF Jake Marisnick, LHP Steven Matz, RHP Michael Wacha, RHP Rick Porcello, LHP Justin Wilson, LHP Chasen Shreve, RHP Jared Hughes, RHP Brad Brach, DH Yoenis Cespedes, C Robinson Chirinos.

Trade Deadline 2020 summary

Acquired: RHP Miguel Castro, 3B Todd Frazier, C Robinson Chirinos.

Traded: LHP Kevin Smith.

2020 record: 26-34

2020 placement: 4th

2020 WAR leader (batter): Michael Conforto

2020 WAR leader (pitcher): Jacob deGrom

Starting Pitchers

The big difference in the Mets rotation from 2020 to 2021 is the lack of talent around Jacob deGrom. That shouldn\’t be an issue now, as Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha and Steven Matz are out, with much better replacements. Of course, deGrom is baseball\’s best pitcher, as he had a 2.38 ERA with 104 strikeouts in 68 innings with a 0.956 WHIP, finishing third in Cy Young voting. deGrom\’s pitches keep getting faster, as his fastball averaged 98.6 mph last year, and his slider was at 92.5 mph, and can reach 95 mph, which is just unfair. All four of his pitches had a whiff rate over 30%. Returning to play in 2021 is Marcus Stroman, who opted-out of the season after getting injured. Stroman was having a career season in Toronto when the Mets traded for him in 2019. Stroman had a 3.77 ERA in 11 starts after the trade. In total that season, Stroman had a 3.22 ERA with 159 strikeouts in 184.1 innings. His 20.5 K% was a career best. His higher strikeout rate was thanks to an improved slider, a pitch batters hit .168 against. Because he was acquired in the same trade as Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco\’s arrival in New York wasn\’t talked about as much as it should have been. Carrasco fully returned to form in 2020 after missing a lot of 2019 because of cancer treatments. \”Cookie\” threw his slider and curveball better than before, with his curveball having an average spin rate of 2944 rpm. He struck out 82 batters in 68 innings with a 2.91 ERA. Noah Syndergaard missed all of 2020 with Tommy John surgery, and will likely miss the first half of 2021. When we last saw him, \”Thor\” was having his worst season yet, with a 4.28 ERA in 32 starts. To give them a much better rotation until Syndergaard returns, the Mets made a late addition in Taijuan Walker. His return from Tommy John surgery went really well, as Walker had a 2.70 ERA with 50 strikeouts in 53.1 innings. Batters hit under .160 against Walker\’s two main pitches, his fastball and cutter. He was much better after a midseason trade to Toronto, where he posted a 1.37 ERA over six starts. One red flag with Walker is his high xERA of 5.07. The fifth starter fight is an interesting one, as the obvious answer would seem like David Peterson, the 2017 1st rounder who had an impressive rookie season. But, the Mets have expressed interest in limiting Peterson\’s innings, meaning he would start at the alternate training site. He had a 3.44 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 49.2 innings last year. He only allowed 36 hits, but his issue is walking batters, which Peterson did at a high 11.7% rate. An option to start if Peterson is sent down is Joey Lucchesi, who was acquired from San Diego after only pitching in 5.2 innings last year. Lucchesi was an average starter in 2019, with a 4.18 ERA, a 100 ERA+ and a 4.00 xERA. He struck out 158 batters in 163.2 innings, and his changeup had 8.8 inches of vertical movement above average. Lucchesi could go to the bullpen if necessary. 

Relief Pitchers

The Mets have already lost a key part of their bullpen until May, as Seth Lugo had elbow surgery to replace a bone spur. Lugo, whose curveball has an average spin rate of 3213 rpm, was moved to the rotation last year, where he shouldn\’t be, and the results showed that. Lugo had a 5.15 ERA while striking out 47 in 36.2 innings. He had a 2.70 ERA with an 11.7 K/9 as a reliever in 2019. Back at closer for the Mets is Edwin Diaz, who Mets fans need to accept just had a down year in 2019, and is an elite closer. Diaz had a 1.75 ERA with 50 strikeouts in 25.2 innings, which is not a typo. Batters had a .157 xBA against Diaz, whose slider has an insane whiff rate of 57%. The Mets were aggressive in early free agency to bring in former Twin Trevor May. May had a 3.86 ERA last year, but struck out 38 batters in 23.1 innings. May has a great fastball that he uses to get swings-and-misses up in the zone at a high velocity. One concern with him is a high 91.1 mph average exit velocity. Another Mets reliever who bounced back from 2019 was Jeurys Familia, although he did not go all the way back like Diaz did. Familia had a 3.71 ERA in 26.2 innings, while his fastball was up a tick. But, his main issue from 2019, walking batters, remaining in 2020, as he had an abysmal 15.8% BB rate. Former GM Brodie Van Wagenen was aggressive in picking up Miguel Castro from Baltimore last Trade Deadline. Castro struck out 38 batters in 24.2 innings combined for the two teams last year, and his sinker averaged over 98 miles an hour. All of Castro\’s pitches have a good amount of movement on them, and his slider had a 2933 rpm spin rate with a 48.3% whiff rate. Since they didn\’t have any lefties in the bullpen, the Mets signed Aaron Loup, who reinvented himself with the Rays last year, like so many other people have. Lefties had a .581 OPS against Loup, who had a 2.52 ERA and a 4.2 percent BB rate. Dellin Betances was one of baseball\’s best relievers from 2014-2018, but missed basically all of 2019 before missing a decent amount of time in 2020 with injuries. Betances had a 5.56 xERA with 11 strikeouts in 11.2 innings, while walking 12 batters. His fastball velocity was down by more than 4 mph from 2018. It would be a surprise to not see Robert Gsellman on the Opening Day roster, but it is possible after he allowed 15 runs in 14 innings last year. Walks have always been an issue for Gsellman, who has never had a BB/9 under 3.0. Until Lugo returns, the final spot is up for grabs. It could go to whoever doesn\’t make the rotation, whether that is Peterson, Lucchesi or waiver claim Jordan Yamamoto. Former Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino hasn\’t pitched since early 2019, but he has a 3.01 ERA with a 10.1 K/9 in his career. Righty Drew Smith pitched in seven innings last year, with a high-90s fastball. His cutter had an insanely high 63.2% whiff rate, which isn\’t sustainable over a full season, but still very promising. 

Catchers

Mets fans entered the offseason with expectations of JT Realmuto, but instead got James McCann, who was the next best thing on the free agent market. McCann was an all-star in 2019, and is a good pitch framer. He was even better in 2020 than in 2019, hitting seven home runs with an .896 OPS in only 31 games, while actually backing up Yasmani Grandal. One enduring issue for McCann are strikeouts, which McCann did at 27% rate in 2020. The backup role is not guaranteed to Tomas Nido, with Caleb Joseph and Bruce Maxwell available, but Nido is the heavy favorite. The trade for Robinson Chirinos meant that Nido played in just seven games, but he went 7-for-24 with two home runs and a double.

Infielders

The whole \”Pete Alonso had a down year\” narrative is a little bit odd to me, since he really didn\’t. His batting average dropped off, and he didn\’t hit home runs at a 53 homer pace, but that is not a big worry. Alonso still had an .817 OPS with 16 home runs, and his strikeout rate decreased while his walk rate was about the same. The only place where there was significant regression was defensively, as Alonso had -5 outs above average at first base, but we already knew he was bad defensively before. The Mets lost Robinson Cano for the season after he was suspended a second time for PEDs. Despite Cano\’s above-average productivity in 2020, this is not all bad news, as the team freed up salary for a year, and now Jeff McNeil can focus mainly on one position after playing four last year, mostly left field. McNeil is an elite contact hitter, as he hit .311 while only striking out at an 11.5% rate. He also had a career high 9.6% BB rate, and hit 14 doubles to make up (slugging wise) for just four home runs. The most exciting debut for the Mets in 2021 will of course be new acquisition Francisco Lindor, who the Mets just need to extend now. Lindor actually a down year in 2020, hitting eight home runs with a .335 OBP and a .750 OPS. Still, Lindor has won two Silver Sluggers and two Gold Gloves, and had a .278 xBA in 2020. His strikeout rate did increase, but just to 15.4 percent, which is definitely acceptable. One area of his game that didn\’t strike out was defense, as he had seven outs above average. The Mets spent a lot of the second half of the offseason engaged in rumors for a JD Davis replacement at third base. Davis can hit, but his -7 outs above average is something that the Mets may want to improve on. Davis had an .895 OPS in 2019, which was decreased to .761 in 2020. That can easily be blamed on a massive slugging decrease, down to .389 from .527. Davis had an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph, and walked a career high 13.5% of the time. Switch-hitter Jonathan Villar stole just 16 bases in 52 games for the Blue Jays and Marlins last year, but really struggled everywhere else. Villar had -9 outs above average, a .593 OPS and a .281 xSLG. There are a lot of improvements that need to be done here. In just 29 games, Luis Guillorme showed that he could be a legitimate potent backup to Davis, with three outs above average, a .333 average and an .865 OPS. 

Outfielders

The Mets are looking like they are ready to enter 2021 with an outfield that is great at hitting, but challenged defensively. Dominic Smith had to find a position after Alonso claimed first base, and with no returning DH, left field looks like his future. He hit 10 home runs with a .316 average and a .993 OPS in his breakout 2020 season, with a .301 xBA and a .563 xSLG. Smith had -5 outs above average, and -2 in left field. Brandon Nimmo can play all three outfield positions, but 2020 showed that he is not suited for center field, where he looks to be starting 2021 at. Nimmo had a .404 OBP with an .888 OPS in 55 games last year, with a 14.7 BB%. Nimmo also lowered his strikeout rate to a career low 19.1 percent. Nimmo had a 28 ft/s sprint speed, but had -5 outs above average in center. Upcoming free agent Michael Conforto hit nine home runs with a .322 average and a .927 OPS in 54 games, while hitting over .300 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches. Unfortunately, Conforto is also a weak defender, like Smith and Nimmo. Conforto had five outs above average in both 2018 and 2019, but -6 in 2020. To combat the starters\’ defensive skills, the Mets signed two defensive outfielders to help. Veteran Kevin Pillar only had average defensive numbers in 2020, but actually had a career high OPS. In 54 games for the Red Sox and Rockies, Pillar hit six home runs with five stolen bases, a .288 average and a .798 OPS. It was the first time in his career that he had an OPS+ over 100. Since 2018, Albert Almora Jr. has 19 outs above average. He played in just 28 games for the Cubs last year, and really struggled offensively. Almora went 5-for-30 with a .465 OPS. Another option is Mallex Smith, who has stolen 90 bases since the start of 2018. Smith only has a .686 career OPS, but his speed is worth the offensive sacrifice. 

Projection

The Mets are prone to get Metsy; that\’s where the word comes from. But, this is a really good team to start, and will get even better when Syndergaard and Lugo return. If they can avoid the usual Mets shenanigans, they will be better than fine. The Mets aren\’t better than the Braves yet, but they are a playoff team.