CarterHud

 

       The Oakland Athletics have acquired SS Elvis Andrus, C Aramis Garcia and cash from the Texas Rangers in exchange for OF/DH Khris Davis, C Jonah Heim and RHP Dane Acker.

       This trade is not one that you can decipher quickly. There is money, underperforming players and prospects all involved, and the values slide towards the Rangers. In December, Evan Grant of the Dallas News wrote an article detailing the Rangers\’ desire to move Isiah Kiner-Falefa from third base to shortstop, replacing Andrus. This put the Rangers in a tough spot with Andrus that they are now able to escape. Basically, Andrus is owed $14 million in both 2021 and 2022. But, he had a club option worth $15 million for 2023. If he got traded, and he just did, that would become a player option, as long as he reaches 550 Plate Appearances in 2022, or 1,100 Plate Appearances in 2021 and 2022 combined. Given that Andrus will be 34 in two years, and that he isn\’t worth $15 million this year, it is just about guaranteed that Andrus will be under contract for three years if he hits one of those marks. While they do shed Davis\’ salary, and about $13.5 million in cash back, it would have been smarter for Oakland to up their offer to one of Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons, the top three shortstops on the market, or wait a year when just about every good shortstop in the league will be a free agent. Plus, they could have traded Davis away in a separate deal, and had a better and younger starting shortstop with less money on their hands, plus they could have kept the two prospects. Andrus has not had an OPS+ over 80 since 2017, and even an 80 OPS+ is below average. He is normally a good defender, but last year he had -3 outs above average. Once again, Semien and Simmons would be better defensive options. He had an awful .233 xBA with a 26.3 ft/s sprint speed, which were both career lows in the statcast era. Garcia is not young, but he has raked in the minors. He has an OPS of .801 in his AAA career. He will be a better offensive backup right now than Heim. 

         Andrus, 32, hit three home runs with three stolen bases, a .194 average and a .582 OPS in 111 Plate Appearances for the Rangers in 2020. In his MLB career, all in Texas, Andrus has hit 76 home runs with 305 stolen bases, a .274 average and a .702 OPS in 7079 Plate Appearances. 

         Garcia, 28, hit two home runs with a .143 average and a .527 OPS in 46 Plate Appearances in 2019 for the San Francisco Giants. In AAA in 2019, Garcia hit 16 home runs with an .831 OPS in 371 Plate Appearances. In his MLB career, Garcia has hit six home runs with a .229 average and a .689 OPS in 111 Plate Appearances.

         I love this trade for the Rangers. Davis is not a big commitment, as he has one year remaining on his contract at $16.75 million. If you add the $13.5 million they give to Oakland, the Rangers will end up paying $30.25 million, which is just slightly above the $28 million they owed to Andrus. Plus, they swap Garcia for two prospects. MLB Pipeline ranked Heim as Oakland\’s 9th best prospect prior to the trade. He debuted in 2020, after posting an .863 OPS in 85 games between AA and AAA in 2019. The Rangers could run out an exciting young catching tandem of Heim and Sam Huff, the second best prospect in the organization who also debuted in 2020. Acker was a 4th round pick by the A\’s in 2020 out of Oklahoma. Because of the cancellation of the minor league season, Acker is yet to appear in a professional game. The main player who will affect the team in 2020 is Davis, who used to be a 40 home run machine, but struggled in both 2019 and 2020, and he was limited to 30 games last year. From 2016-2018, Davis hit the ball as hard as anyone. In a small sample size last year, that just didn\’t happen. Davis had an average exit velocity of just 87.7 mph, with a weak 31.1 hard hit percentage. Plus, he struck out over 26 percent of the time. The Rangers will have a big hit-or-miss middle of the order with Davis and Joey Gallo, assuming Gallo isn\’t traded. 

         Davis, 33, hit two home runs with a .200 average and a .632 OPS in 99 Plate Appearances for the A\’s last year. In his MLB career for Oakland and the Milwaukee Brewers, Davis has hit 218 home runs with 18 stolen bases, a .243 batting average and an OPS of .810 in 3690 Plate Appearances.

         Heim, 25, hit no home runs with a .211 average and a .479 OPS in 41 Plate Appearances in 2020. In his minor league career, Heim has hit 36 home runs with 10 stolen bases, a .250 average and an OPS of .687 in 2001 Plate Appearances.

         Acker, 21, had a 3.51 ERA with 28 strikeouts and a 0.779 WHIP in 25.2 innings for the University of Oklahoma in 2019. In his collegiate career for Oklahoma and Rice University, Acker has a 3.93 ERA with 60 strikeouts and a 1.357 WHIP in 66.1 innings. 

 

       The Los Angeles Angels have acquired OF Dexter Fowler and cash from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

       This is definitely an interesting deal for both sides, and while there are reasons to hate this trade for both Angels and Cardinals fans, but the Angels make out fine here. Entering the final season of the five year deal he signed with St. Louis, Fowler was set to earn $14.5 million. The Cardinals will eat up a significant portion of that salary here, making the deal more manageable for Los Angeles. If you look at our Angels in the Outfield, Mike Trout and Justin Upton are still there, but top prospects Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh were both in competition for a role. By acquiring Fowler, the Angels get a serviceable veteran who only blocks Adell and Marsh for one year, and lets the Angels sent Adell back to the minors, where he should spend more time after he finished with a -1.3 WAR in 2020. If either Adell or Marsh rake at AAA or in Spring Training, that is no problem. The Angels would easily be fine with one of them taking over for Fowler, as long as they produce. Fowler\’s greatest strength offensively is his ability to draw walks, but he does not hit the ball hard, with an average exit velocity of 84.5 mph last year. 

        Fowler, who will be 35 by Opening Day, hit four home runs with one stolen base, a .233 average and an OPS of .706 in 101 Plate Appearances for the Cardinals in 2020. In his MLB career for St. Louis, the Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros, Fowler has hit 127 home runs with 148 stolen bases, a .259 average and an OPS of .776 in 5881 Plate Appearances. 

       With this trade, the Cardinals are putting a lot of confidence in an unproven outfield. With Fowler gone, the projected outfield next year will consist of Harrison Bader and Tyler O\’Neill, who both have a lot to prove offensively, and promising 22 year old Dylan Carlson, with Austin Dean and Lane Thomas as the extras. That is not great. If the Cardinals need outfield help, they could move the versatile infielder Tommy Edman to right field, and play Matt Carpenter at second base in the absence of the recently departed Kolten Wong. The reason for this trade and the reason for Carpenter\’s position switch are the same. If you haven\’t heard, the Cardinals acquired star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who was teammates with Fowler in Colorado. This frees up some money for the Cardinals to work with if they want to make more additions in the coming weeks. 

       The St. Louis Cardinals have acquired 3B Nolan Arenado and cash from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for LHP Austin Gomber, 3B Elehuris Montero, SS Mateo Gil, RHP Tony Lacey and RHP Jake Sommers. 

       Well, if there wasn\’t a clear cut favorite for the NL Central before, there is now. The Cardinals put themselves in a similar situation as they were two offseason ago, when they acquired Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks. At that time in 2018, it was safe to say that Goldschmidt and Arenado were the top two hitters in the National League West, and they are teammates now. Just like Goldschmidt, Arenado is an amazing hitter, and also a great defender. Arenado has won the National League Gold Glove award at third base in each of his eight career seasons, with a Silver Slugger in four of them. He had a down year offensively in 2020, but he only played in 48 games. His lowest home run total in the five years prior was 37, and his lowest OPS was .898 over that frame. There might be a concern whether Arenado can hit away from Coors Field, something he will now do full-time, he has a .985 home OPS, and a .793 road OPS. But, he still excels at things that a field cannot factor into. Arenado had seven outs above average with a 10 K% in 2020, which were both in the top one percent of hitters. And while it fell this year, Arenado was in the top-10 percent of hitters in wOBA in each of the previous five seasons. While he does get paid a lot of money, it is definitely worth it for one of baseball\’s premier players. Under his current contract, Arenado would earn $35 million in each of the next four seasons, followed by a $32 million 2025 season, and then a $27 million 2026 season, as he would enter free agency after his age 35 season. However, Arenado has an opt-out after the 2021 season, which could have been a concern for the Rockies, forcing them to trade him. But, by waving his no-trade clause to go to St. Louis, Arenado will have another opt-out clause, this one coming after 2022. So, he can leave the Cardinals after the next two seasons, if he wants to. The Cardinals also get some financial security here, as for some reason the Rockies are sending them an additional $51 million in cash. They make out of this trade really well, as they don\’t even give up any of their top prospects. 

          Arenado, 29, hit eight home runs with a .253 average and an OPS of .738 in 208 Plate Appearances for the Rockies in 2020. In 2019, he hit 41 home runs with a .962 OPS. In his MLB career, all in Colorado, Arenado has hit 235 home runs with a .293 average and an .890 OPS in 4558 Plate Appearances. 

          The Rockies just don\’t do things right. Another franchise icon\’s prime years with the team have been wasted, as Arenado joins Larry Walker, Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitski. Soon, it may be Trevor Story, who is a free agent after 2021. Reportedly, the Rockies will use the money saved in this trade to try to extend Story, but there is no reason now for Story to want to stay in Colorado. The return isn\’t great for Arenado, and they give up a ton of money just so St. Louis can take him. The only MLB player is Gomber, who has started MLB games, but was good in a mostly relief role in 2020. The 2014 4th rounder isn\’t young. He has a 2.95 ERA over six minor league seasons. The highest ranked prospect going to the Rockies is Elehuris Montero, who was ranked 8th. With a talent like Arenado, one of Dylan Carlson, Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore, the top-three prospects in St. Louis\’ system, should be acquired every time, regardless of salaries. Montero was great as a 19 year old in Single-A and High-A in 2018, but could not handle the jump to AA in 2019. After that amazing 2018, where he posted an .875 OPS, Baseball America ranked Montero as the 81st best prospect in all of baseball entering 2019, one slot ahead of Dustin May, and a few slots ahead of Brandon Lowe and Will Smith. Of the other three prospects, only two were in the top-30 prospects for the Cardinals. Locey, a 2019 3rd round pick, was ranked 19th. After a 3.92 ERA and a 9.4 K/9 over three seasons at Georgia, Locey was exclusively a reliever in his short minor league season. Ranked 22nd in the St. Louis system, Mateo Gil was also a third round, but from 2018. He was drafted out of high school, so he is actually younger than Locey. The son of former World Series champion Benji Gil, he was pretty average in 2019. Finally, Sommers was a 10th rounder in 2019. After posting a 5.59 ERA at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Sommers pitched in the Appalachian League in 2019. Overall, this is a really disappointing return, especially as it is a punch to the gut for Rockies fans.

          Gomber, 27, posted a 1.86 ERA with 27 strikeouts, a 1.172 WHIP and a 3.54 FIP in 29 innings for St. Louis in 2020. In his MLB career, Gomber has a 3.72 ERA with 94 strikeouts, a 1.413 WHIP and a 3.89 FIP in 104 innings. 

          Montero, 22, hit seven home runs with a .194 average and an OPS of .562 in 253 Plate Appearances in the Gulf League and mostly for AA Springfield in 2019. In his minor league career, Montero has hit 32 home runs with a .269 average and an OPS of .751 in 1519 Plate Appearances.

          Locey, 22, had a 5.29 ERA with a 1.647 WHIP and 31 strikeouts in 17 innings in the Gulf League and Single-A Peoria in 2019. At Georgia in 2019, Locey had a 2.53 ERA with a 1.079 WHIP and 97 strikeouts in 89 innings.

          Gil, 20, hit seven home runs with a .262 average and a .735 OPS in 231 Plate Appearances for Johnson City in the Appalachian League and High-A Palm Beach as an 18 year old in 2019. In his minor league career, Gil has hit eight home runs with a .257 average and a .700 OPS in 425 Plate Appearances.

          Sommers, 23, had a 4.18 ERA with a 1.355 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 51.2 innings for Johnson City in the Appalachian League in 2019. In 2019 for Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Sommers saved 10 games with a 3.60 ERA, a 1.467 WHIP and 37 strikeouts in 30 innings.

 

       The Los Angeles Angels have acquired RHP Alex Cobb and cash from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for 2B Jahmai Jones. 

       The Angels need starting pitching every year, and every year they fail to deliver. Cobb and Jose Quintana are their big additions this year, which would be good in 2016, not 2021. Since joining the Orioles in 2018, Cobb has fallen off, although he missed just about all of 2019. Over his three seasons with the Orioles, Cobb had a 5.10 ERA with an abysmal 6.1 K/9 in 41 starts. He also is not cheap, with one year remaining at $15 million, but Baltimore is expected to cover most of that money. Cobb\’s biggest reason for failure is pretty easy to identify. For whatever reason, the guy will not stop throwing his sinker. A pitch that he didn\’t utilize as much in the beginning of his career, it was Cobb\’s go-to pitch as an Oriole. He threw it 47.5% of the time in 2020, and it got absolutely crushed, with an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph, a 7.5 whiff rate and a batting average against of .353. Even worse, his xBA of .363 on that pitch shows that he was a little bit lucky. It isn\’t like he has no decent pitches; Cobb\’s split finger had a .181 average against with an average exit velocity of 86.7 mph while being used over 35% of the time last year. He needs to throw more of that pitch, and a lot less sinkers. Giving up the 7th best prospect in the system is not great, but the Angels have four other middle infielders in MLB Pipeline\’s top-10 prospects, so they can live without Jones.

       Cobb, 33, had a 4.30 ERA with 38 strikeouts, a 1.338 WHIP and a 4.87 FIP in 52.1 innings for the Orioles in 2020. In his MLB career for Baltimore and the Tampa Bay Rays, Cobb has a 3.88 ERA with 718 strikeouts, a 1.265 WHIP and a 4.05 FIP in 917 innings.

       The tankathon continues between the Orioles and the Pirates. With this move, only Chris Davis makes more than $5 million on the team, and five players make more than $1 million. They get a nice return here for Cobb. Jones was ranked 7th among prospects in the Angels organization by MLB Pipeline, and he made his MLB debut in 2020, going 3-for-7. The 2nd round pick in 2015 should go to AAA in 2021, a level he has never played at. At AA in 2019, Jones really struggled offensively, before posting an .886 OPS in 16 games in the Arizona Fall League. 

       Jones, 23, hit five home runs with nine stolen bases, a .234 average and an OPS of .631 in 544 Plate Appearances at AA Mobile in 2019. In his minor league career, Jones has hit 35 home runs with 96 stolen bases, a .258 average and an OPS of .724 in 2159 Plate Appearances. 

 

       The Toronto Blue Jays have acquired LHP Steven Matz from the New York Mets in exchange for RHPs Sean Reid-Foley, Yennsy Diaz and Josh Winckowski.

       I really don\’t like this trade for Toronto. Matz has really fallen off recently, as he was awful in 2019 and was demoted to the bullpen, but he had a great July and August. Those two months could be what the Blue Jays are looking for, but you would have to ignore what he did in 2020 to believe that. Matz averaged more than one earned run allowed per inning, so an ERA over nine, and he got shelled, with an average exit velocity of 91.5 miles per hour and a 13.5 barrel percentage. He is best as a fifth starter who goes five innings on average, which isn\’t something that is worth three young players. Even worse, Matz isn\’t young, and after he earns $5.2 million in 2021, he will be a free agent. 

       Matz, 29, had a 9.68 ERA with 36 strikeouts, a 1.696 WHIP and a 7.76 FIP in 30.2 innings for the Mets in 2020. In his MLB career, all in New York, Matz has a 4.35 ERA with 552 strikeouts, a 1.320 WHIP and a 4.49 FIP in 579.2 innings. 

      The Mets did pretty well with this trade given Matz\’s current value, but these three players likely won\’t add much to the big league team. They add the former 26 and 27th best prospect in the Jays system (MLB Pipeline) in Diaz and Winckowski, who have combined for 0.2 innings pitched in the majors, and that came in 2019, when Diaz allowed two earned runs with four walks in one game. Both are minor league starters, and Winckowski, a 2016 15th rounder, has posted solid numbers in the low minor league levels. Reid-Foley is the only player who could impact the Mets in the near future. He has pitched in 21 games for the Jays over the last three seasons, with 13 of those being starts. He was a second round pick in 2014, and is still fairly young. His main issue is his control, as he has walked two batters for every three MLB innings he has pitched on average. The Mets clear some salary here and a roster spot, potentially to sign top free agent starter Trevor Bauer. Even if they don\’t end up signing Bauer, or any free agent starter for that matter, the Mets would still have Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Joey Lucchesi and David Peterson as a rotation with Noah Syndergaard recovering from Tommy John surgery. 

      Reid-Foley, 25, had a 1.35 ERA with six strikeouts in 6.2 innings for the Blue Jays in 2020. In his MLB career, all in Toronto, Reid-Foley has a 4.40 ERA with 76 strikeouts, a 1.605 WHIP and a 5.20 FIP in 71.2 innings. 

      Diaz, 24, had a 3.74 ERA with 116 strikeouts and a 1.233 WHIP in 144.1 innings for AA New Hampshire in 2019. In his minor league career, Diaz has a 3.84 ERA with 429 strikeouts and a 1.287 WHIP in 481 innings. 

      Winckowski, 22, had a 2.69 ERA with 108 strikeouts and a 1.202 WHIP in 127.1 innings for Single-A Lansing and High-A Dunedin in 2019. In his MiLB career, he has a 3.35 ERA with 237 strikeouts and a 1.297 WHIP in 263 innings.