CarterHud

 

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       The New York Mets have acquired SS Francisco Lindor and RHP Carlos Carrasco from the Cleveland Indians in exchange for SS Amed Rosario, SS Andres Gimenez, RHP Josh Wolf and OF Isaiah Greene. 

       When the Mets were bought by billionaire lifelong fan Steve Cohen, long-suffering fans came up with their wildest dreams in hope that Cohen could help make it a reality. Well, the team previously signed Trevor May and James McCann, and now they got a starter and an infielder, and the only position category that hasn\’t been improved is outfield, and George Springer could be coming soon. The Mets are showing how actually spending money will lead to a better team. Lindor is a free agent at the end of the 2021 season, but the Mets will do all that they can to extend him. While Lindor is coming off of the worst year of his career, he was still an above average player. Carrasco was amazing in 2020 in his full-time return after recovering from cancer. They don\’t even give up that much, as the top prospect that they trade away is rated 9th in their system, and they get one of the league\’s best shortstops without giving up their top prospect, shortstop Ronny Mauricio. Rosario had fallen out of the starting lineup, and Gimenez replaced him, and Lindor is a major improvement on Gimenez, while Carrasco is a number two starter. A lot of things will have to go wrong for the Mets to lose this deal.

        Lindor, 27, hit eight home runs with six stolen bases, a .258 batting average and an OPS of .750 in a league high 266 Plate Appearances in 2020. In his MLB career, all in Cleveland, Lindor has hit 138 homers with 99 stolen bases, a .285 average and an OPS of .833 in 3510 Plate Appearances. Lindor has a career bWAR of 28.7. 

        Carrasco, 33, had a 2.91 ERA with 82 strikeouts, a 3.59 FIP and a 1.206 WHIP in 68 innings in 2020. In his MLB career, Carrasco has an ERA of 3.77 with 1305 strikeouts, a 3.42 FIP and a 1.196 WHIP, plus a 21.4 bWAR in 1242.1 innings. 

        The Indians love to trade away talent to shed salary, and Lindor is just the greatest example of it. Mike Clevinger and Trevor Bauer were previously the best examples, but this deal is on a new level. With this trade, they don\’t have to pay Lindor the $19.5 million he\’s owed this year, or the $38 million Carrasco is owed over the next three years. That would be a good explanation if shedding a lot salary from a successful deal was a smart approach, but it isn\’t. The Indians will hope that Gimenez and Rosario can combine for the production that Lindor brought, but even Gimenez, who was recently a top prospect, isn\’t expected to be that player. They get some lower level prospects in Wolf and Greene. The Indians have a ton of young arms like Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale and Tristan McKenzie who can replace Carrasco, but \”Cookie\” has been a Cleveland staple for 11 seasons, so it won\’t be easy to lose two respected and talented members of the team. Some eager Indians fans may point out that Lindor and Gimenez had the exact same OPS+ last year, but 2020 was an uncharacteristically bad year for Lindor. Rosario could play second base for Cleveland in 2021 as Cesar Hernandez is still a free agent. Wolf was a second rounder in 2019 out of St. Thomas High School is Houston. He has very limited minor experience. Greene was a second rounder in 2020\’s MLB draft out of Corona High School. He is 19 years old and has no minor league experience. Wolf and Greene were ranked as the 9th and 10th best prospects in the Mets system prior to the deal. 

         Rosario, 25, hit four home runs with a .252 average and an OPS of .643 in 147 Plate Appearances for the Mets last year. In his MLB career, all in New York, Rosario has hit 32 home runs with 50 stolen bases, a .268 average and an OPS of .705 in 1564 Plate Appearances.

         Gimenez, 22, hit three home runs with eight stolen bases, a .263 batting average and a .732 OPS in 132 Plate Appearances in 2020, his rookie year. He finished 7th in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Gimenez stole 93 bases in 393 minor league games.

         Wolf, 20, had a 3.38 ERA with 12 strikeouts and a 1.250 WHIP in eight innings for the Gulf League Mets in 2019. That is all of his minor league experience. 

       After a conference finals run and a healthy Erik Karlsson, expectations were high for the Sharks, and everything blew up. The goaltending was awful, and so was most of the team. The Sharks have an aging core, and that didn\’t include Joe Thornton, who finally left San Jose for Toronto. While a bounce-back season wouldn\’t be the weirdest thing in the world, it seems unlikely with the team barely getting better.

Additions: F Ryan Donato, G Devan Dubnyk, F Patrick Marleau, F Matt Nieto.

Subtractions: F Joe Thornton, G Aaron Dell, F Melker Karlsson, D Brandon Davidson.

Best Move: Trading a third round pick to Minnesota for Ryan Donato.

Worst Move: Settling for Devan Dubnyk in net with much better options previously available.

One Move I\’d Make: Hold on to my first round pick this time.

Best Contract: Timo Meier, three years remaining with a $6 million cap hit.

Worst Contract (there are a lot): Marc-Edouard Vlasic: six years remaining with a $7 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Anaheim, Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles, Minnesota, St. Louis, Vegas.

Pending UFAs: Devan Dubnyk, Marcus Sorensen, Stefan Noesen, Patrick Marleau, Matt Nieto, Antti Suomela.

Pending RFAs: Ryan Donato, Dylan Gambrell, Noah Gregor. 

Forwards

The top-six is actually really good, but things fall off from there. It starts with Logan Couture, who only played in 52 games last year but was not the same player he once was. He\’s an eight time 20+ goal scorer, but he scored just 16 goals last year with 39 points. Although he is now on the wrong side of 30, I wouldn\’t panic just yet. Couture has a pair of young wingers as line mates, starting with Timo Meier. At age 23, Meier scored 23 goals and led the Sharks with 49 points. He had a 52.9 CF%, well above team average. Kevin Labanc bet on himself in restricted free agency after a nice 2018-19, but that didn\’t work out. He scored 14 goals with 33 points and a -33 rating in 70 games. To reward him for helping them stay under the cap last year, the Sharks actually overpaid Labanc, giving him a four year, $18.9 million extension this offseason. In his second full season in San Jose, Evander Kane led the team with 26 goals, and led the league in penalty minutes for the second consecutive year, with 122. Kane always racked up penalty minutes in Winnipeg and Buffalo, but that elevated once he joined the Sharks. Tomas Hertl scored 35 goals in 2018-19, but injuries stopped him from getting a chance to come close to that in 2019-20. In 48 games, Hertl scored 16 goals with 36 points. The Sharks made a nice move to acquire Ryan Donato from Minnesota for only a third round pick. Donato scored 14 goals in 62 games last year, and in 84 games for the Wild, he had 39 points, dating back to 2018-19. He\’ll be a solid 2nd-3rd line winger during his stay in San Jose. The bottom six will show if the Sharks are committed to a youth movement or not. After appearing in 11 games from 2017-18 to 2018-19, 2016 2nd rounder Dylan Gambrell became a full-time player, with five goals and six assists in 50 games. The Sharks traded away Patrick Marleau at the deadline, but he signed back for a third stint with the team, which seems weird to say. If he can avoid an injury, Marleau will become the all-time games played leader in the NHL. He hasn\’t missed a game since 2008-09. He scored 11 goals with 11 assists last year, and received votes for the Lady Byng award. A 7th rounder in 2016, Joachim Blichfeld scored 16 goals with 16 assists in 44 AHL games, and earned a three game NHL tryout. He is one of the many Sharks in the fight for a roster spot. Matt Nieto, a California native who was on the Sharks from 2013-14 to 2016-17, returns on a one year deal. Nieto finished with 21 points in 70 games for the Avalanche last year, and he had a positive GAR in all three of his full seasons in Colorado. Another 2016 draft pick, Noah Gregor had a great 2018-19 in the WHL, then turned pro. He had 19 points in 25 AHL games, and scored three goals with two assists in 28 NHL games. The Sharks claimed first rounder Stefan Noesen off of waivers in October, and he played in 34 games with the team afterwards. Noesen scored six goals with 64 hits. Marcus Sorensen scored 17 goals in 2018-19, but he really struggled while playing with Joe Thornton, finishing with a -3 GAR. Entering free agency, this is the last year for the Sharks to figure out what they have in him. Antti Suomela came to the Sharks as an undrafted free agent after having great numbers in Finland, but he hasn\’t played well in North America. He had seven points in 20 games last year, with nine in 14 AHL games. In the 2020-21 season in Finland, Suomela played in 10 games, with five points. After scoring 20 goals in 50 DEL games, the Sharks signed 22 year old Lean Bergmann. His first season didn\’t go as planned, as he had one assist in 12 NHL games, and 17 points in 31 AHL games. Swedish forward Joel Kellman got into 31 NHL games last year, and had seven points. He had five points in 14 games while playing Sweden this season. 

Defensemen

Brent Burns is a great offensive defenseman, but he really isn\’t a good defensive defenseman. Burns scored 12 goals with 45 points in 70 games. His average ice time was 25 minutes, and he hit the double-digit goal mark in the past seven years. Radim Simek seemed like the perfect safety blanket for Burns in half of a season in 2018-19. He regressed in 2019-20 as the team regressed, with nine points and a -5.5 GAR in 48 games. Erik Karlsson has regressed since leaving Ottawa, but that\’s mainly because he\’s played in 53 and 56 games in his two seasons with San Jose. He scored six goals with 40 points last year, and his 3.8 GAR was his lowest since his 17 game 2012-13 season. Marc-Edouard Vlasic was once the definition of a shutdown defender, but he has regressed a lot since signing a big extension. Vlasic had 15 points in 70 games with a -4.6 GAR. His average ice time of 20 minutes and 18 seconds was the lowest of his career. 2017 2nd rounder Mario Ferraro went straight from UMass-Amherst to the NHL last year, and had 11 points in 61 games. The fifth spot is up for grabs, with Jacob Middleton having the upper hand. Middleton had three assists in 10 NHL games last year, with six in 32 AHL games. The best option for the team\’s future is Ryan Merkley, the 2018 1st rounder who played in two AHL games last year after dominating the OHL. In 60 games for the London Knights, Merkley scored 15 goals with 76 points. Trevor Carrick has six NHL games, with three of those coming last year for the Sharks. He scored 10 goals with 23 points in 48 AHL games.

Goalies

Martin Jones is still expected to be the 1A for the Sharks, but he hasn\’t been near an average level since 2017-18. Last year, Jones had an .896 SV% with a 3.00 GAA and a -15.01 GSAA. He has a .908 SV% with a -30.4 GSAA over five seasons in San Jose. He does have some pressure this year in the form of Devan Dubnyk, who for the first time in his six years in Minnesota, was below average. Dubnyk wasn\’t just a below average goalie, he was awful, with an .890 SV% with a 3.35 GAA and a -16.23 GSAA in 30 games, and lost his starting job to Alex Stalock. 

Projected Lines

Timo Meier – Logan Couture – Kevin Labanc

Evander Kane – Tomas Hertl – Ryan Donato

Patrick Marleau – Dylan Gambrell – Joachim Blichfeld

Matt Nieto – Noah Gregor – Marcus Sorensen

Extras: Stefan Noesen, Antti Suomela, Joel Kellman, Lean Bergmann.

Radim Simek – Brent Burns

Marc-Edouard Vlasic – Erik Karlsson

Mario Ferraro – Ryan Merkley

Extras: Jacob Middleton, Trevor Carrick

Martin Jones

Devan Dubnyk

Projection

The Sharks have some good players. But, they have no depth, and unlike their rivals, the Kings and Ducks, the young players filling in aren\’t highly touted prospects or really young. The team is still far from a rebuild, with many veterans signed to terrible long-term deals. The Sharks will finish 7th in the West Division, and miss the playoffs. 

 

From Getty Images

       When the Penguins were eliminated in the wild card round by the Canadiens, a team that shouldn\’t have been there, people started to wonder if the sun was setting on the Penguins\’ success. They might not be wrong, as Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang are 34, 33 and 33 years old respectively. Former key members Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist and Matt Murray have left, and with their rivals only getting better, this year will be tougher than ever for the Penguins. 

Additions: F Kasperi Kapanen, D Mike Matheson, F Colton Sceviour, F Mark Jankowski, D Cody Ceci.

Subtractions: G Matt Murray, F Patric Hornqvist, F Conor Sheary, D Justin Schultz, F Nick Bjugstad, F Patrick Marleau, D Jack Johnson.

Best Move: Signing John Marino to a six year extension.

Worst Move: Trading Patric Hornqvist to Florida for Mike Matheson and Colton Sceviour.

One Move I\’d Make: Do anything, literally anything, to prevent a Matheson-Ceci pairing.

Best Contract: Jake Guentzel, four years remaining with a $6 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: Mike Matheson, six years remaining with a $4.875 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Boston, Buffalo, New Jersey, Islanders, Rangers, Philadelphia, Washington.

Pending UFAs: Colton Sceviour, Cody Ceci, Evan Rodrigues, Frederick Gaudreau, Zach Trotman.

Pending RFAs: Teddy Blueger, Mark Jankowski.

Forwards

Sidney Crosby finished second in Hart voting in 2018-19, but it doesn\’t feel like it, since everyone forgot about him and shifted over to McDavid and MacKinnon this offseason. Crosby isn\’t really on the level of those guys, but he is still a top player in the NHL. While injuries caught up to him and held him to 41 games last year, Crosby still scored 16 goals with 47 points. In his 15 year career, Crosby has never averaged under a point per game, even in his 22 game 2011-12. Jake Guentzel was having an amazing season on Crosby\’s wing until he went down with an injury. He scored his 20th goal on the same play he got hurt on, and he only played in 39 games. He returned for the playoffs, and had three points in four games. In case you were wondering if Evgeni Malkin was washed up, he scored 25 goals with 74 points in 55 games, for his highest points per game mark since his Hart winning 2011-12 season. Bryan Rust was rumored to be in trade talks in the offseason, as the Penguins may have been looking to sell high after Rust had a great season playing with Malkin. Rust scored a team leading 27 goals with 56 points in 55 games. Health was a big issue for the Penguins last year, as only four forwards appeared in at least 60 of their 69 games, and none of them were in the top-six. To round out the top two lines are two wingers recently acquired by the team. Jason Zucker was acquired midseason from Minnesota, and scored six goals with six assists in 15 games after the trade, and added two more goals in the playoffs. Overall, he scored 20 goals, hitting that mark for the fifth time in the past six years. The Penguins traded a first round pick for Kasperi Kapanen, and while he\’s only 24 and one year removed from a 20 goal season, that seems like an overpay. Kapanen scored 13 goals with 36 points for the Maple Leafs last year, and while he could score more playing with Crosby, he did play with Auston Matthews and John Tavares last year, and that didn\’t really work out. While the Penguins were his third team, James McCann has found something in Pittsburgh. He only scored 27 goals in 212 games with Vancouver and Florida, but since coming over midway through 2018-19, McCann has 25 goals in 98 games. 14 of them came last year, and he tied his career high of 35 points. Plus, he\’s only 24. Evan Rodrigues was actually traded for Kapanen, and then when the Leafs didn\’t qualify him, he returned to the Penguins. In seven games after being traded from Buffalo last year, Rodrigues scored one goal. Things went well in that short stint, with a very high CF% of 64.4. Colton Sceviour, Sam Lafferty and Rodrigues will fight over two spots. Sceviour is a nine year veteran who had 16 points in 69 games for the Panthers last year. His 44.4 CF% was well below the team average. In his rookie season, Lafferty scored six goals with seven assists in 50 games. He has produced at the AHL level but that\’s about it. The Penguins signed Brandon Tanev to a six year deal, and the fit actually worked in year one. Tanev scored 11 goals with 25 points, but he earned 11 Selke votes, and was second among Penguins forwards in penalty kill time. The only forward ahead of him was Teddy Blueger, a former second rounder who became a full-time player last year. Blueger scored nine goals with 22 assists in 69 games. Even when he scored 17 and 14 goals in 2017-18 and 2018-19, Mark Jankowski was mainly just a defensive forward. His goal total dropped off to five for Calgary last year, so they didn\’t tender him a contract. He can play center, but a line of Jankowski, Blueger and Tanev would be very nice defensively. Zach Aston-Reese also received some Selke votes last year, and he had a decent 3.5 GAR. He will be a starter eventually, but he\’ll miss time rehabbing from surgery. 

Defensemen

Kris Letang is still a good defenseman for now, but I don\’t think I\’d call him an all-star or a serious Norris candidate. He is regressing defensively, but he did score 15 goals with 44 points last year, so it\’s not like he\’s useless. Letang\’s average ice time was nearly 26 minutes a game last year. Some of that was spent with partner Brian Dumoulin, who was limited to 28 games last year. Dumoulin had eight points with a 56.8 CF% in his limited time. The real star of the Pittsburgh defense last year was John Marino. A rookie who the Penguins gave up a sixth rounder to Edmonton for in July 2019, Marino had 26 points in 56 games last year with a +17 rating, and he finished 8th in Calder voting. Marino was valued highly by analytics, with a 15.3 GAR, and 9.2 of that came from his defensive value. Another nice under-the-radar addition from a team formerly in the Pacific Division, Marcus Pettersson has played well since coming over from Anaheim. At age 23 last year, Pettersson had 22 points in 69 games, with a GAR of 8.7. The top-four defensemen are good, but if the third pairing is what we think it will be, things will crash immediately. After finally escaping from Jack Johnson, the Penguins brought in both Mike Matheson and Cody Ceci to replace Johnson as the worst defender. Surprisingly, Matheson\’s analytics weren\’t bad last year. But, he was just plain awful at times, and might have cost the Panthers a play-off series against the Islanders last year with eight penalty minutes in two games, which would have been higher if one major penalty wasn\’t reverted to a minor. Ceci on the other hand, saw his stats in Ottawa flip in Toronto. Previously, he was a liability defensively but alright on offense, but last year he brought nothing to the table offensively but was decent defensively. He\’s physical and can block shots, but that\’s about it. Like Ceci, Juuso Riikola isn\’t good on offense, but is a fine bottom pairing defenseman or seventh defenseman. He had seven points in 36 games last year. Chad Ruhwedel is entering his fifth season as a seventh defenseman in Pittsburgh. He\’s fine in that role, but nothing more. 

Goalies

25 year old Tristan Jarry will be vital to the success of the Penguins in 2020-21. He had great numbers last year, but he only made 31 starts. Jarry had a .921 SV% with a 2.43 GAA and an 11.07 GSAA. Even though it will only be a 56 game season, Jarry should start more games than he did last year. His backup, Casey DeSmith, has a .917 SV% in 50 career games. However, none of those games came last year, as DeSmith started and struggled in the AHL, with a .905 SV% and a 2.92 GAA. While both Jarry and DeSmith have had success in the past, goaltending will be a big issue for the team in 2020-21. 

Projected Lines

Jake Guentzel – Sidney Crosby – Kasperi Kapanen

Jason Zucker – Evgeni Malkin – Bryan Rust

Sam Lafferty – Jared McCann – Evan Rodrigues

Mark Jankowski – Teddy Blueger – Brandon Tanev

Extras: Colton Sceviour, Zach Aston-Reese

Brian Dumoulin – Kris Letang

Marcus Pettersson – John Marino

Mike Matheson – Cody Ceci

Extras: Juuso Riikola, Chad Ruhwedel

Tristan Jarry

Casey DeSmith

Projection

The Penguins are an aging team, but at least their stars are still productive. The way things ended last year was rough, and that could be who the Penguins are now. The rest of the division mostly got better, which is not something the Penguins can say. I might be alone with this, but I think that the Penguins\’ floor is also their most likely outcome, which is a sixth place finish. 

 

       Of all the weird things that happened in the hockey world last year, the Flyers becoming the top seed in the Eastern Conference was odd. They are a good team, and they rode a hot streak into the stoppage, but seeing them seeded higher than Boston and Tampa Bay was unexpected. The Flyers made it to game seven of round two versus the Islanders, but were absolutely dominated in that game, and for a lot of the series. The team is looking to build on what happened last year, with a pretty similar squad going in. 

Additions: D Erik Gustafsson, D Derrick Pouliot.

Subtractions: D Matt Niskanen, F Tyler Pitlick, F Derek Grant, F Nate Thompson.

Best Move: Not making a drastic shake-up.

Worst Move: Replacing Matt Niskanen with Erik Gustafsson.

One Move I\’d Make: Trade away Shayne Gostisbehere.

Best Contract: Travis Konecny, five years remaining with a $5.5 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: James van Riemsdyk, three years remaining with a $7 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Boston, Buffalo, New Jersey, Islanders, Rangers, Pittsburgh, Washington.

Pending UFAs: Scott Laughton, Erik Gustafsson, Brian Elliott, Michael Raffl.

Pending RFAs: Carter Hart, Travis Sanheim, Nolan Patrick, Sam Morin.

Forwards

After two great seasons in a row, Claude Giroux took a step back in 2019-20, scoring 21 goals with a still respectable 53 points in 69 games. But it was in the postseason where the Flyers captain received the most scrutiny, has he scored just one goal with seven assists in 16 games. No one confuses Jakub Voracek for a goal scorer, as his career high in goals in 23. But, he still had a down 2019-20, with 56 points, which is his second lowest total in the past seven seasons. Both Giroux and Voracek are aging, with Giroux set to turn 33 next week, and Voracek sitting at 31 years of age. Sean Couturier is the definition of a two-way center, as he scored 22 goals with 59 points last year, and spent a lot of time on the penalty kill, had a 56.5 CF%, and finally won the Selke trophy. The leader in goals and points for the Flyers last year was Travis Konecny, who scored exactly 24 goals for the third consecutive season, and had a career high 61 points in a career low 66 games. After signing a questionable seven year deal, Kevin Hayes may have proved that the signing was a mistake, as his 41 points was the second lowest total of his career. Hayes did perform when it mattered, with 13 points in 16 playoff games. James van Riemsdyk had 21 assists in 66 games, the exact same numbers he posted in 2018-19. The main difference was his goal total, which fell down to 19 from 27. He scored twice in the playoff, and at times was a healthy scratch. Oskar Lindblom made it all the way back from cancer to play in the final two postseason games for the Flyers. While people remember the recovery, they forget about how effective Lindblom was before his diagnosis. He scored 11 goals in 30 games, and he had a 54.4 CF%. 20 year old Joel Farabee became a regular for the Flyers last year, and he scored eight goals with 21 points in 52 games. He scored three goals in 12 playoff games. 2017 first rounder Morgan Frost turned professional after lighting up the OHL. Frost had seven points in 20 NHL games, and 29 points in 41 AHL games. A line of Lindblom, Frost and Farabee would be a really nice kid line for the Flyers if they can produce. Last year, the Flyers brought in Tyler Pitlick, Derek Grant and Nate Thompson, who are all gone. Scott Laughton could move down to the fourth line, but that is questionable, considering he was an effective third line center last year. Laughton scored a career high 13 goals with 27 points in only 49 games, and he killed penalties, won face-offs and produced in the playoffs, with nine points in 15 games. Michael Raffl has spent time in the top-six, and he scored four goals in nine playoff games. He only had eight goals in 58 regular season games, and he seems like a nice fit for the fourth line. Nic Aube-Kubel scored seven goals in 36 games with 82 hits as a rookie, and he got into 13 playoff games. The forwards are pretty set, unless Nolan Patrick wants to change that. The 2017 2nd overall pick missed all of 2019-20 with concussion issues, but was skating in camp today. Patrick\’s first two seasons were similar, with 13 goals in each, and 30 and 31 points in 73 and 72 games played. Patrick can knock out Frost of the lineup, because if he is healthy, I don\’t see the Flyers wanting one of Patrick, Frost and Farabee on the fourth line, although with Laughton on it it\’s not a traditional fourth line already. The weird Flyers announcement of the offseason was when the team announced that Sam Morin would become a left winger. The 2013 first rounder is constantly hurt, and hasn\’t played in more than 20 professional games in a season since 2016-17. He is six-foot-six and has 25 hits in nine NHL games, so a potential fourth line role would make sense. 

Defensemen

In the mid-2010s, the Flyers had a bunch of young defensive prospects entering their organization. They\’ve all come up at the NHL level, and with the exception of Morin, you could say that they all panned out. The most prominent of the group is Ivan Provorov, who had 13 goals with 36 points in 69 games, with a career high 10.7 GAR. Since joining the Flyers on Opening Night of 2016-17, Provorov has played in every one of the team\’s games. After his partner, Matt Niskanen, surprisingly retired, either Philippe Myers or Erik Gustafsson will play with Provorov. Myers is a much better option, as he had 16 points in 50 games last year with a 51.4 CF% and an 11.2 GAR, but he played well with Travis Sanheim on the second pairing and the Flyers may not want to split that up. Gustafsson is an all-offense defenseman who often plays on his off-side. Gustafsson is a year removed from a 17 goal, 60 point season, but he regressed last year, with six goals and 29 points for the Blackhawks and Flames. Sanheim had 25 points in 69 games last year, and him and Myers created a great duo. The Flyers won\’t want to split them up, but also may have to if they don\’t want Gustafsson playing big minutes like Provorov. Justin Braun joined the Flyers and saw his ice time decrease by three minutes per game. Braun bring little to the table offensively, but is strong in his own end. Shayne Gostisbehere had 65 points in 2017-18 and 37 in 2018-19, but he had a rough 2019-20, with 12 points in 42 games. His bad 2019-20 seems like an outlier. If the Flyers are concerned about his defense, pairing him with Braun makes sense. Throughout the postseason, Gostisbehere was benched for Robert Hagg, who doesn\’t bring much to the table defensively, and isn\’t the greatest offensive defenseman either. The big camp battle here is Gostisbehere versus Hagg, and Hagg did nothing to show that he is valuable in the postseason. 

Goalies

22 year old Carter Hart had a really nice second year, with a .914 SV% and a 4.46 GSAA. He carried the Flyers in the postseason, with a .926 SV% and a 2.23 GAA. He was the main reason the Flyers got to game seven of the second round, let alone past game five. He doesn\’t have much help behind him, as veteran backup Brian Elliott returns for another season. He hasn\’t been an above average goalie since leaving St. Louis. Last year, Elliott had a -8.02 GSAA with an .899 SV% in 31 games. 

Projected Lines

Claude Giroux – Sean Couturier – Jakub Voracek

James van Riemsdyk – Kevin Hayes – Travis Konecny

Oskar Lindblom – Morgan Frost – Nolan Patrick

Joel Farabee – Scott Laughton – Nic Aube-Kubel

Extras: Michael Raffl, Sam Morin

Ivan Provorov – Philippe Myers

Travis Sanheim – Erik Gustafsson

Shayne Gostisbehere – Justin Braun

Extras: Robert Hagg

Carter Hart

Brian Elliott

Projection

The Flyers showed they can be a legitimate playoff contender when they were the one seed in the East last year. That seems like that\’s good enough to qualify. While things didn\’t go well afterwards, they still won a playoff series. With Hart, Konecny and Provorov leading the core. The Flyers are primed for another playoff spot in 2020-21, although I only see them sneaking in at 4th place. 

 

From Getty Images

       The last few years have been tough for Senators fans. Since the team went to the Conference Finals and nearly beat in Pittsburgh in 2016-17, it\’s been all downhill since then, with the Matt Duchene trade being the low point. Ottawa is now seeing a glimpse at the light at the end of the tunnel, with many intriguing rookies ready to join the club in 2020-21. 

Additions: F Evgenii Dadonov, F Derek Stepan, G Matt Murray, D Erik Gudbranson, F Cedric Paquette, F Austin Watson, D Braydon Coburn, F Alex Galchenyuk, D Josh Brown. 

Subtractions: F Anthony Duclair, D Mark Borowiecki, D Ron Hainsey, F Bobby Ryan, G Craig Anderson, G Anders Nilsson, F Jayce Hawryluk, F Scott Sabourin.

Best Move: Signing Evgenii Dadonov to a three year deal.

Worst Move: Trading a second round pick to Arizona for Derek Stepan.

One Move I\’d Make: Acquire a first round pick from the Islanders by taking on Andrew Ladd\’s contract.

Best Contract: Connor Brown, three years remaining with a $3.6 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: Nikita Zaitsev, four years remaining with a $4.5 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver, Winnipeg.

Pending UFAs: Derek Stepan, Artem Anisimov, Erik Gudbranson, Cedric Paquette, Braydon Coburn, Alex Galchenyuk, Mike Reilly.

Pending RFAs: Brady Tkachuk, Logan Brown, Christian Wolanin, Drake Batherson, Marcus Hogberg, Artem Zub.

Forwards

Brady Tkachuk\’s second season went just about as well as the first. He scored 21 goals with 44 points, both only one less than his 2018-19 total, in the same 71 game season as before. Tkachuk also plays a very physical game, with 303 hits and 106 penalty minutes. After a nice 2018-19 season, Colin White took a huge step backwards last year, with seven goals and 23 points in 61 games. While it would make sense for the Senators to keep him with Tkachuk, a demotion could also make sense. If he stays with Tkachuk, his right winger will be Evgenii Dadonov. Signing him was a nice move by the team to at least stay competitive for a little bit. He scored 25 goals with 47 points in 69 games for the rival Panthers last year, and he scored 28 goals in each of the past two years. Most of the excitement for the Senators this year will be guided towards 2020 third overall pick Tim Stuetzle. For Mannheim in the DEL last year, Stuetzle had 34 points in 41 games. For Germany in the World Juniors, Stuetzle averaged a goal and an assist per game.  Both of his expected linemates play on the power play and the penalty kill. Chris Tierney scored 11 goals with 37 points in 71 games, and he had at least 40 points in each of the previous two years. In his first year with the Senators, Connor Brown scored 16 goals, his most since 2016-17, with a career high 43 points. He averaged over 20 minutes on ice per night, and he hasn\’t missed a game since he became a starting Maple Leaf in 2016-17. Acquired in the Erik Karlsson trade along with Tierney, Josh Norris played in three NHL games last year after lighting up the AHL. In 56 games for the Belleville Senators, Norris scored 31 goals with 61 points. He is very good friends with Tkachuk, so don\’t be surprised if they play together at some point this year. Drake Batherson had 10 points in 23 NHL games last year, and in the AHL, he scored 16 goals with 54 points in 44 games. The Senators have a great opportunity to run out a line of Norris, Batherson and Alex Formenton, who are all 2017 draft picks who dominated in the AHL together last year. The only one of the trio not to appear in an NHL game last year, Formenton scored 27 goals with 53 points in 61 AHL games. The nine forwards that I already mentioned would be the ideal top-six for the Senators, with everyone being either young and exciting, or proven NHL players, with only Dadonov falling on the wrong side of 30. Unfortunately, a bunch of veterans, mostly acquired as a cap dump by other teams, are threatening this piece. Derek Stepan, who the Sens recently acquired and I mentioned in the Coyotes preview, is probably the best of the bunch. He\’s a playmaker, but has fallen off since joining Arizona. Alex Galchenyuk consistently hit the 40 point mark from 2014-15 to 2018-19, but he completely fell off with Pittsburgh last year, with 17 points in 45 games. After a trade to Minnesota, things picked up for him, as he had seven points in 14 games. Cedric Paquette just won the cup with the Lightning, but he consistently had a CF% well below team average and didn\’t contribute offensively in his time there. Artem Anisimov scored 15 goals in 49 games for the Senators last year, hitting the 15 goal mark for the fifth year in a row. It sounds weird to say this, but he\’d have a much better chance to play elsewhere. Physical forward Austin Watson doesn\’t bring much to the table offensively. He had 14 points in 53 games for Nashville last year, with 131 hits. The last member of this very crowded group is Nick Paul, who had 20 points in 56 games with 122 hits last year. Paul is a big winger who is only 25 years old, so the Senators could get some interest if they shop Paul. One more possibility for the roster is Logan Brown, a 2016 1st rounder who had eight points in 23 games last year, but he was a point per game player in limited AHL action.

Defensemen

There is some sort of structure to the defensive core for Ottawa, which you can\’t say the same for the offense. Still, the room could get crowded with some young defensemen looking to make an impact. The star is Thomas Chabot, who could really use a productive partner. Chabot averaged 26 minutes on ice per game, and had 39 points in 71 games last year. The Senators locked him up in September 2019, signing him to an eight year deal that kicks in this year. The best partner for Chabot may be Erik Gudbranson, which is also somehow the worst case scenario. Gudbranson is a big, strong defenseman who is also a big, strong defenseman. If you thought that was a slip up, it\’s not, because Gudbranson is just a big strong defenseman and nothing else. He had nine points in 51 games for the Penguins and Ducks last year, with 95 penalty minutes. The Sens got Connor Brown by taking on Nikita Zaitsev\’s contract, and that didn\’t go well. Zaitsev had 12 points in 58 games, and somehow had an average ice time of 22 minutes despite his GAR being -5.4. I\’d say that it\’s good that Gudbranson will play with Chabot instead of Zaitsev, but is it really? Gudbranson had a GAR of 0 last year, and that was higher than average. Christian Wolanin missed most of 2019-20 with a torn labrum, hurting a year that was vital to his development. Wolanin had 15 points in 43 career NHL games, and had 31 points in 40 AHL games in 2018-19. The usage of Erik Brannstrom will show us how true the Sens are to the rebuild. The 21 year old had four points in 31 NHL games last year, but had 23 points in 27 games in the AHL. Playing in Switzerland this season, Brannstrom had eight points in 10 games. The main competition for him is Braydon Coburn, recently acquired from Tampa Bay. Coburn had four points in 40 games last year, but was phased out of their lineup come playoff time. The Senators traded a 4th rounder to Florida for Josh Brown, who played in a career high 56 games last year. He had eight points with 77 hits and 53 blocked shots. After coming over in a midseason deal with Montreal, Mike Reilly played well, with 12 points in 30 games. His average time on ice was seconds under 20 minutes. 25 year old Russian Artem Zub comes from the KHL, where he scored 13 goals in 57 games last year. He is in the mix for Brown\’s spot. Christian Jaros and Max Lajoie, who have both been unimpressive in short NHL stints, are also in the mix.

Goalies

The Senators tried to answer their goalie problems when they traded a second round pick for Matt Murray. The trade itself was fine, although the four year, $25 million extension they gave is questionable. Murray really struggled last year, with an .899 SV% and a 2.87 GAA in 38 games for the Penguins last year. His -11.60 GSAA and the fact that Tristan Jarry started to steal his job shows you how bad Murray\’s 2019-20 was. He shouldn\’t have much competition in Ottawa, as Marcus Hogberg hasn\’t done much when given the chance. In 24 games last year, Hogberg had a .904 SV% with a -4.17 GSAA. 

Projected Lines

Brady Tkachuk – Josh Norris – Evgenii Dadonov

Tim Stuetzle – Chris Tierney – Connor Brown

Alex Formenton – Colin White – Drake Batherson

Alex Galchenyuk – Artem Anisimov – Derek Stepan

Extras: Nick Paul, Austin Watson, Cedric Paquette, Logan Brown

Thomas Chabot – Erik Gudbranson

Erik Brannstrom – Nikita Zaitsev

Christian Wolanin – Artem Zub

Extras: Braydon Coburn, Mike Reilly, Josh Brown, Christian Jaros, Max Lajoie

Matt Murray

Marcus Hogberg

Projection

The Senators are the one truly bad team in the North Division. But, when you think about it, they could make the playoffs and wouldn\’t be totally surprised. All they would have to do is finish ahead of three of the teams in their division, and when you look at that list, it\’s nothing spectacular. While I don\’t they\’ll make it, there is a chance, if the kids are for real.