CarterHud

 

       There is one man in hockey who deserves much more attention than he gets, and oddly enough, he comes from a big market team. Jeff Gorton has done an amazing job with the Rangers\’ rebuild, and while he did get lucky with signing Artemi Panarin and getting top draft picks in 2019 and 2020, he still built a nice core around them and has done well with asset management. This has New York, just a few years after a declaring for a rebuild, in the hunt for the playoff spot.

Additions: D Jack Johnson, F Kevin Rooney, F Colin Blackwell, D Anthony Bitetto, G Keith Kinkaid.

Subtractions: G Henrik Lundqvist, F Jesper Fast, D Marc Staal, F Greg McKegg, F Lias Andersson.

Best Move: Making the right decision for the franchise and buying out Henrik Lundqvist.

Worst Move: Signing Jack Johnson to a one year deal.

One Move I\’d Make: Bury Jack Johnson in the AHL.

Best Contract: Mika Zibanejad, two years remaining with a $5.35 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: Jacob Trouba, six years remaining with an $8 million cap hit. 

New Division Rivals: Boston, Buffalo, New Jersey, Islanders, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington.

Pending UFAs: Brendan Smith, Jack Johnson, Phillip Di Giuseppe.

Pending RFAs: Igor Shesterkin, Pavel Buchnevich, Filip Chytil, Ryan Lindgren, Julien Gauthier, Brett Howden.

Forwards

The Rangers gave out a lot of money, maybe even too much money, to sign top free agent Artemi Panarin last offseason. He had a career year, scoring a career high 32 goals with a career high 95 points in 69 games. He finished 3rd in Hart voting, but an argument could be made for a better placement. In his five NHL seasons, Panarin\’s lowest point total is 74. Panarin\’s center for most of the year was Ryan Strome, a former rival turned top-six center. Strome scored 18 goals with 59 points in 70 games, and his average ice time of 19 minutes and 35 seconds was a career high by nearly four minutes. With Jesper Fast off to Carolina, the right wing on the top line is not clear. The Rangers might want to put Kaapo Kakko there. Kakko, last year\’s second overall pick, had a historically bad rookie season. He scored 10 goals with 23 points in 66 games, which doesn\’t seem bad for an 18 year old, but his underlying numbers were awful. Kakko had a -9.6 GAR, and Evolving-Hockey estimated his worth at $-8.2 million, which isn\’t ideal. If you thought Mika Zibanejad\’s 74 point 2018-19 was good, his 2019-20 was much better. Zibanejad scored 41 goals with 75 points, and he only played in 57 games. That\’s a 59 goal pace in an 82 game season. He received Byng and Selke votes, and kills penalties. The only lock for his wing seems to be Pavel Buchnevich for now. The 25 year old scored 16 goals with a career high 46 points in 68 games. He might score less goals than both of the options for Zibanejad\’s wings. Chris Kreider scored 24 goals, hitting the 20 goal mark for the fifth time in six years. He is six-foot-three and always has over 100 hits, but he has surprisingly great speed. Even though Kreider is signed for the next seven years, his future replacement will be Alexis Lafreniere, the first overall pick in 2020. For Rimouski of the QMJHL last year, Lafreniere scored 35 goals with 77 assists for 112 points in only 52 games. While he could play with Panarin, the Rangers would have to move him to his offside, which they probably wouldn\’t want to do. Instead, Lafreniere can start with 21 year old Filip Chytil, who is entering his third full season. In both of his first two, Chytil finished with 23 points, and last year scored 14 times. The right winger on that line will be a battle resolved in camp, but for now Julien Gauthier is the best bet. A former 1st rounder acquired midseason, Gauthier had two assists in 12 games for the Rangers. He barely played, averaging under nine minutes on ice a game. Gauthier\’s uncle Denis was an NHL defenseman for a decade, mostly playing with Calgary. The younger Gauthier is only 23, so playing with other young players with potential could help him rebuild his value. The only lock for the fourth line is Brendan Lemieux, who has lived up to the physical part of his father\’s legacy, with his father of course being Claude Lemieux, the starter of one of the sport\’s most famous rivalries at a point in time. Lemieux had 18 points in 59 games last year, but had 164 hits with 111 penalty minutes, which is fourth line material. His line mates are uncertain, with Brett Howden having the best chance. Howden had 19 points in 70 games last year, but really struggled in his own end, leading to a negative GAR. He could be the center, with one of Kevin Rooney, Colin Blackwell and Phillip Di Giuseppe going on the wing. Rooney had nine points in 49 games for the rival Devils last year, and Blackwell had 10 in 27 games for the Predators. The only one of the group with time spent in New York is Di Giuseppe, who had four points in 20 games for the Rangers last year. 2018 first rounder Vitali Kravtsov is a long term option. He has 12 goals in 34 KHL games this year. 

Defensemen

Tony DeAngelo was an offensive force on the backend last year, scoring 15 goals with 53 points in 68 games. He received five Norris votes, although he was significantly worse in his own end. DeAngelo had negative defensive value, although his offensive value propelled his GAR to 9.2. The Rangers lack on the left side, so DeAngelo may play on his off-side with Jacob Trouba, who had a disappointing first year. Trouba finished with 27 points in 70 games, and was a nightmare analytically, with a GAR of -8.5. To put that into perspective, Jack Johnson, considered by some to be the league\’s worst player, had a -9.5 GAR. Oh, and by the way, the Rangers signed him after the Penguins dumped him. Johnson will either be the sixth or seventh defenseman, but I\’ll get to that soon. Adam Fox finished 4th in Calder voting, and many thought that he should have been third. Fox had 42 points in 70 games, had a +22 rating, and a 14.9 GAR. His partner, Ryan Lindgren, is the best the Rangers have to offer on the left side for now. Lindgren had 14 points in 60 games as a rookie in 2019-20, and had 94 hits with 47 penalty minutes. He is exactly six days older than Fox, with both of them turning 23 in mid-February. 2020-21 will be the last year of Brendan Smith\’s bad contract. Smith had eight points in 62 games last year, and averaged only 11 minutes of ice time per game. If the Rangers want to replace either Smith or Johnson, calling on 2018 first rounder K\’Andre Miller would be wise. Miller had 18 points in 36 games for the University of Wisconsin last year, and is primed for a starting role in the NHL. The Rangers brought in New York native Anthony Bitetto for depth. He had eight assists in 51 games for a shallow Winnipeg defense last year. 

Goalies

After dominating the KHL, Igor Shesterkin came to North America and did more of that domination thing. He started in the AHL, with a .934 SV% and a 1.90 GAA in 25 games. When he got called up for a 12 game stint, he had an amazing .932 SV%. With Henrik Lundqvist gone, Shesterkin will be the full-time starter. Bulgarian backup Alex Georgiev has had a positive GSAA in his first three seasons, although he had a .910 SV% last year, his lowest of the three seasons. He\’s actually about a year younger than Shesterkin.

Projected Lines

Artemi Panarin – Ryan Strome – Kaapo Kakko

Chris Kreider – Mika Zibanejad – Pavel Buchnevich

Alex Lafreniere – Filip Chytil – Julien Gauthier

Brendan Lemieux – Brett Howden – Colin Blackwell

Extras: Kevin Rooney, Phillip Di Giuseppe, Vitali Kravtsov

Tony DeAngelo – Jacob Trouba

Ryan Lindgren – Adam Fox

K\’Andre Miller – Brendan Smith

Extras: Jack Johnson, Anthony Bitetto

Igor Shesterkin

Alex Georgiev

Projection

The Rangers are the definition of an up-and-coming team. They have a ton of young players like Lafreniere, Kakko, Miller and Shesterkin ready to make a big impact on the team. Their depth does weaken out a little bit, and they haven\’t had the recent success of other teams in their division. While they will come close to finishing in 4th place, they\’ll end up in 5th, and miss the postseason. 

 

        About two years ago, a man came to Long Island, and afterwards, the offensive stats of most of the Islanders were ruined. Do you think they care? Nope. That man, Barry Trotz, was also their savior. He introduced a new defensive system, and while the effect was less goals scored, less goals were allowed, and their goalies thrived. The Islanders were able to use this strategy to go all the way to the Conference Finals just a few months ago, before the Lightning knocked them out. While the salary cap started to destroy the team a little bit in the offseason, they enter the season primed to return to where they left off.

Additions: G Cory Schneider, F Dmytro Timashov, F Austin Czarnik, F AJ Greer.

Subtractions: D Devon Toews, G Thomas Greiss, F Derick Brassard, F Tom Kuhnhackl.

Best Move: Getting Ilya Sorokin to come to North America.

Worst Move: Not getting any forwards.

One Move I\’d Make: Sign Mat Barzal.

Best Contract: Scott Mayfield, three years remaining with a $1.45 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: Andrew Ladd, three years remaining with a $5.5 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Boston, Buffalo, New Jersey, Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington.

Pending UFAs: Casey Cizikas.

Pending RFAs: Anthony Beauvillier, Adam Pelech, Ilya Sorokin, Michael Dal Colle.

Current RFAs: Mat Barzal, Dmytro Timashov.

Forwards

Training camp is starting soon and Mat Barzal still doesn\’t have a contract. The Islanders did some cap navigating this offseason, and it hurt their blue line, so they could sign their face of the franchise. They may have received some help from a former division rival in Columbus, who signed Pierre-Luc Dubois to a cheap two year deal with a $5 million cap hit. That can be used as a comparable situation, which could lower the cost. Barzal scored 19 goals, and his 41 assists led the team by 12. Barzal\’s 60 points led the team by six. Captain Anders Lee saw his goal total go down again, but he still scored 20 in 68 games. He also hit the 100 hit mark for the sixth year in a row. Jordan Eberle may have been hurt the most by the introduction of the Trotz system. A six time 20 goal scorer, Eberle hasn\’t hit that mark in the past two years. He scored 16 goals, which was his lowest total in a season, minimum 50 games. While Eberle might have been hurt the most among Isles forwards, Brock Nelson saw his game advance under Trotz. Nelson led the team with 26 goals and a career high 54 points in 68 games. He had a career high 51.8 face-off percentage, and kills penalties. Both of Nelson\’s wingers, Anthony Beauvillier and Josh Bailey, excelled in the postseason. Beauvillier scored 18 goals with 39 points in 68 games, and he is a streaky player, which proved to be true when he started the playoffs on a hot streak, before settling down by the end. In total, he scored nine goals with five assists in 22 games. Bailey does not shoot the puck often, with only 94 shots all regular season. To put that into perspective, Derick Brassard, who played in two less games and averaged more than three minutes less on ice than Bailey per game, had 110. Bailey makes up in the assist category, as he was second on the team with 29, and had 18 in 22 playoff games. The third line was the weakest line all season for the Isles, but that improved once Jean-Gabriel Pageau came over from Ottawa. He scored 26 goals combined, with two of them coming in seven games after the trade. He scored eight goals in the postseason. His wingers in New York consisted of Tom Kuhnhackl, Michael Dal Colle, Leo Komarov and Ross Johnston, and none of them are functional third liners. Komarov kills penalties, but he scored just four goals in 48 games. He did cut back on his minor penalties, which was a big issue for him in 2018-19. Johnston had four points in 32 games, but had 93 hits with 78 penalty minutes. He is one of the few enforcers left in hockey. Dal Colle had 10 points in 53 games, and the former 5th overall pick is the definition of a bust. It would be nice to see former first rounders Kieffer Bellows and Oliver Wahlstrom on Pageau\’s wing, but the organization has been hesitant to play young talent in the past, meaning that they could be stuck on the taxi squad. Wahlstrom had no points in nine NHL games last year, and had eight points in 10 games in Sweden in their 2020-21 season before getting hurt. Bellows scored two goals in eight NHL games, which is a 20 goal pace. He scored 22 goals in 52 AHL games, although there was a PED issue in the offseason. The coined best fourth line in hockey will return, although Matt Martin\’s contract is undisclosed, despite the team confirming it. Martin scored five goals in 55 regular season games, but matched that in the postseason. His 242 hits led the team by over 100. Casey Cizikas is the most talented member of the line, and the team missed him when he was injured in the Conference Finals. Cizikas scored 10 goals in 48 regular season games, and averaged over two minutes on the penalty kill a game. Cal Clutterbuck also spent over two minutes on the penalty kill a game, and had 127 hits in only 37 games. He has played in 10 seasons with over 50 games played, and has over 200 hits in all of them. Because of the physical game they play, Martin, Cizikas and Clutterbuck all missed significant time last year. More injuries could open up a spot for Wahlstrom and Bellows, or depth acquisitions Austin Czarnik and Dmytro Timashov. Andrew Ladd might be buried or put on fake LTIR. He appeared in one postseason game and was really, really bad. 

Defensemen

The Islanders saw Devon Toews get traded to Colorado and Johnny Boychuk retire, meaning that they\’ll need contributions from both the young and old. The top pairing will stay the same, with Ryan Pulock signed for two more years. Pulock led Isles defensemen in goals (10), assists (25) and points (35) in 68 games. He averaged over 22 minutes a night and blocked 139 shots. Pelech played in just 38 games before tearing his Achilles, but he returned in the postseason and played well. He blocked 44 shots with 67 hits in the run. Scott Mayfield averaged three seconds under 20 minutes a night, which was a career high. He\’s the biggest defenseman on the team, at six-foot-five. With Toews gone, Nick Leddy will have to be the puck moving defenseman. Leddy had 21 points in 60 games, the lowest point total in a full season of his career. He\’ll move up to play with Mayfield, instead of Boychuk and Andy Greene, his partners last year. Greene returns on an undisclosed deal similar to Martin\’s situation. He scored two goals in the postseason, the same amount he had in the regular season. Greene is a penalty kill specialist perfect for the bottom pair. Soon-to-be 21 year old Noah Dobson must step up. When Pelech got injured in the last game of the postseason, Dobson came in and played well. He had seven points in 34 games as he learned the Trotz way. He has shown offensive potential in the QMJHL, but was hurt by very limited ice time. Thomas Hickey was a regular before he got hurt in 2018-19 and Toews stole his job. Hickey did not play in the NHL last year, and he only appeared in 14 AHL games. Sebastian Aho played well in 22 games in 2017-18, but has played exclusively in the AHL since. He had 30 points in 47 games for Bridgeport last year. 

Goalies

The focus in net for the Islanders will be on the 1B in their goaltending situation. 25 year old Russian phenom Ilya Sorokin has finally come to North America. He had a .935 SV% with a 1.50 GAA in 40 KHL games last year. In his past five seasons in the KHL, Sorokin\’s worst numbers came in 2016-17, when he had a 1.61 GAA with a .929 SV%. The Isles hope that he can take over for Semyon Varlamov by at least midway through 2021-22. Varlamov had a decent 2019-20, with a 2.62 GAA and a .914 SV%, with a 5.56 GSAA. In the playoffs, he had a .921 SV%, although he looked shaky at times. Like Martin and Greene, former Devil Cory Schneider signed a deal, with the terms becoming unknown. He hasn\’t had a positive GSAA since 2015-16, but with goalie coaches Mitch Korn and Piero Greco, anything seems possible.

Projected Lines

Anders Lee – Mat Barzal – Jordan Eberle

Anthony Beauvillier – Brock Nelson – Josh Bailey

Michael Dal Colle – Jean-Gabriel Pageau – Leo Komarov

Matt Martin – Casey Cizikas – Cal Clutterbuck

Extras: Ross Johnston, Oliver Wahlstrom, Kieffer Bellows, Austin Czarnik, Dmytro Timashov, Andrew Ladd.

Adam Pelech – Ryan Pulock

Nick Leddy – Scott Mayfield

Andy Greene – Noah Dobson

Extras: Sebastian Aho, Thomas Hickey.

Semyon Varlamov

Ilya Sorokin

Extras: Cory Schneider

Projection

It is hard to project the Islanders. Many before me have tried and failed. The lesson here is to never underestimate Barry Trotz. He\’s the reason they are where they are. Trotz\’s leadership will help the Islanders finish third in a tough East Division. 

 

       If you can remember what training was like before the 2019-20 season, you would know that the Devils might have been the most hyped up team entering the season. They had just selected Jack Hughes first overall, traded for PK Subban and Nikita Gusev, and signed Wayne Simmonds. Plus, Taylor Hall was healthy again and MacKenzie Blackwood and Nico Hischier were primed for breakout seasons. Well, none of that hype really went anywhere, as the Devils finished eighth in the Metropolitan Division, and it wasn\’t particularly close. This year, the Devils don\’t look great, with Hall gone, Subban coming off of a bad season, and Hughes disappointing everyone.

Additions: F Andreas Johnsson, D Ryan Murray, G Corey Crawford, D Dmitry Kulikov.

Subtractions: G Cory Schneider, F Kevin Rooney, D Mirco Mueller, F Joey Anderson, F John Hayden.

Best Move: Trading a 5th round pick for Ryan Murray.

Worst Move: Not selling high on Kyle Palmieri.

One Move I\’d Make: Sign Michael Grabner to a PTO.

Best Contract: MacKenzie Blackwood, three years remaining with a $2.8 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: PK Subban, two years remaining with a $9 million cap hit. 

New Division Rivals: Boston, Buffalo, Islanders, Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington. 

Pending UFAs: Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac, Ryan Murray, Nikita Gusev, Connor Carrick, Dmitry Kulikov.

Pending RFAs: Michael McLeod, Nick Merkley, Janne Kuokkanen.

Current RFAs: Jesper Bratt.

Forwards

The Devils solidified their first line center of the future when they signed Nico Hischier to a seven year deal. Of his three NHL seasons, 2019-20 was Hischier\’s worst, as he scored 14 goals with 36 points in 58 games. Despite the low goal total, Hischier\’s goals per game in his three seasons are .24, .25 and .24, so it\’s not like there was a fall-off there. Kyle Palmieri led the team with 25 goals and 45 points, and his lowest goal total over the past five seasons is 24. It might have been smart to trade Palmieri in the offseason, as he is entering a contract year. Like many Devils from last year, Palmieri could be dealt midseason. The main goal for the Devils right now as training camp starts is for them to sign RFA Jesper Bratt. Bratt scored a career high 16 goals last year, although his 16 assists were a career low. He\’s only 22, and isn\’t known by enough hockey fans. In his first NHL season, Nikita Gusev led the team with 31 assists. Yes, he was 27, but it takes some guys a long time to transition from Russia. Like Palmieri, he is a pending UFA. The Devils took advantage of the Maple Leafs\’ salary cap issues, and brought in Andreas Johnsson. Johnsson scored 20 goals in 2018-19, but injuries limited him to 43 games in 2019-20, where he scored eight goals with 13 assists for 21 points. Jack Hughes had one of the most disappointing rookie seasons by a first overall pick in recent memory. In 61 games, Hughes scored seven goals with 21 points. He only won 36.1 percent of face-offs, which is a problem for a center. While he may be entering his 15th and final season as a Devil, Travis Zajac could be named captain soon, as the team does not have one after Andy Greene was dealt to the Islanders last year. Zajac scored nine goals with 25 assists last year, which are numbers he has never had lower than in a full season. He spent two minutes and 51 seconds a game on the penalty kill, the most by returning Devils, including defensemen. Jesper Boqvist played in 35 games last year, and had four points, with them all oddly being goals. In 19 AHL games, Boqvist had 11 points, with eight of them being goals. While playing in this season in Sweden, Boqvist had 10 points in 13 games. 2016 1st round pick Michael McLeod has five assists in 33 career NHL games, with 60 hits. He had 23 points in 47 AHL games. Acquired in the Taylor Hall trade, 2015 first rounder Nick Merkley had a goal and an assist in four games. In the AHL, he had 35 points in 54 games. Merkley also had 13 points in 19 games in Finland in their 2020-21 season. While he\’ll never live up to being the sixth overall pick in a stacked 2015 draft, Pavel Zacha had a career season last year, with a career high 32 points in 65 games. Zacha spent time on both the power play and the penalty kill. Physical forward Miles Wood scored 11 goals, hitting the double digit mark for the third consecutive time. He also had a career high 102 hits. Janne Kuokkanen, who the club acquired at the trade deadline for Sami Vatanen, is an option to play. He made his NHL debut last year, and had 48 points in 56 AHL games. Brett Seney had 13 points in 51 games in 2018-19, but only played in two NHL games last year. In the AHL, Seney scored 19 goals in 61 games. 

Defensemen

The Devils made an aggressive move to acquire PK Subban last year, but it didn\’t work in year one, as Subban had the worst year of his career. He had 18 points in 68 games, with a career low -10.1 GAR. The Devils have a veteran blue line with the youngest of the locks being Will Butcher, who turns 26 in a few days. The former Hobey Baker award winner had 21 points in 56 games, and received a Lady Byng vote. A Butcher – Subban pairing would have nice offensive potential. Damon Severson returns for his seventh season in New Jersey. Severson had 31 points in 69 games, blocked 97 shots and led the team in average ice time with 22 minutes and 58 seconds on average a night. The Devils took advantage of their salary cap situation and got Ryan Murray from Columbus for only a fifth round pick. Murray is good in his own end, but the problem is that he is always injured. He\’s averaged 47 games a season over the last four years, although that is brought down by his 27 game 2019-20. 2018 first rounder Ty Smith will likely skip the AHL and start on the third pairing. Smith was a star on the WHL\’s Spokane Chiefs for four seasons. Last year, he scored 19 goals with 59 points in 46 games, and had a rating of +49. Even if you don\’t like +/-, you have to admit that is impressive. Smith\’s partner will be either Dmitry Kulikov or Connor Carrick, who could also be a pair of Smith starts in the AHL. Kulikov had 10 points in 51 games for the Jets last year, and averaged 20 minutes a night on their struggling blue line, with a 50.9 CF%, his highest since 2013-14. Carrick has struggled since joining New Jersey in 2018-19, with 13 points in 49 games, but a 42.4 CF%. 

Goalies

MacKenzie Blackwood finally took the reigns from Cory Schneider, and he finished sixth in Calder voting. Blackwood had a .915 SV% with a 7.29 GSAA in 47 games last year. To give Blackwood a mentor and solidify their goaltending in general, the Devils brought in Corey Crawford, who actually posted good numbers last year. Crawford had a .917 SV% with a 9.01 GSAA in 40 games. Crawford and Blackwood will split time, although it\’s probably in their best interest for Blackwood to be the 1A. 

Projected Lines

Jesper Bratt – Nico Hischier – Kyle Palmieri

Andreas Johnsson – Jack Hughes – Nikita Gusev

Jesper Boqvist – Travis Zajac – Nick Merkley

Miles Wood – Pavel Zacha – Michael McLeod

Extras: Janne Kuokkanen, Brett Seney

Ryan Murray – Damon Severson

Will Butcher – PK Subban

Ty Smith – Dmitry Kulikov

Extras: Connor Carrick

MacKenzie Blackwood

Corey Crawford

Projection

The Devils have some promising players on their roster. Ty Smith looks good, and Jack Hughes is still only 19 years old. But, when you trickle down to their bottom six, their depth weakens out. The team doesn\’t have an absolute superstar like the other teams in the East Division, and without a superstar or depth, it is hard to be a playoff team, especially with this tough of a division. Maybe in the West or North Division they could make it, but not in the East. 

 

       After two first place finishes in a row, but one series win, the pressure was high on the Predators entering 2019-20. When they came out slow, it cost Head Coach Peter Laviolette his job. The Predators hired failed Devils coach John Hynes, and the team didn\’t get much better. They slumped into fifth place, and with a chance at redemption, they fell to the Coyotes in four games. The Predators made a bunch of minor additions in the offseason, including bringing in the guy who scored the goal to end their season.

Additions: F Nick Cousins, D Mark Borowiecki, F Luke Kunin, D Matt Benning, F Erik Haula, F Brad Richardson.

Subtractions: F Nick Bonino, F Kyle Turris, F Austin Watson, F Colin Blackwell, F Dan Carr, D Dan Hamhuis. 

Best Move: Signing Erik Haula to a one year deal.

Worst Move: Trading Nick Bonino, a 2nd and a 3rd round pick to Minnesota for Luke Kunin and a 4th round pick. 

One Move I\’d Make: Extend Juuse Saros for two years.

Best Contract: Viktor Arvidsson, four years remaining with a $4.25 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: Ryan Johansen, five years remaining with an $8 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Carolina, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Florida, Tampa Bay.

Pending UFAs: Pekka Rinne, Mikael Granlund, Erik Haula, Brad Richardson, Jarred Tinordi.

Pending RFAs: Juuse Saros, Dante Fabbro, Eeli Tolvanen.

Current RFAs: Luke Kunin.

Forwards

The Predators only had one 20 goal scorer in 2019-20, which is a little bit problematic. That goal scorer was Filip Forsberg, who potted 21 in 63 games, his lowest game total since becoming a regular. Forsberg has reached the 20 goal plateau in each of his six full seasons. After scoring 34 goals in 58 games in 2018-19, Viktor Arvidsson took a big step back last year, scoring 15 in 57 games. Arvidsson\’s point total of 28 was his lowest since 2015-16. Ryan Johansen scored 14 goals, but his 36 point total was his lowest as a Predator. Johansen had a very high 53.2 face-off percentage. He\’ll still get the first line center nod over Matt Duchene, who had a disappointing first season in Nashville. Duchene scored 13 goals with 42 points in 66 games. Over his career, his 66 game average totals are 20 goals and 49 points. The Predators took months to bring back Mikael Granlund, who played with Duchene last year and scored 17 goals in 63 games. His game total and 17:48 average ice time were lowest totals since 2013-14. Former first round pick Eeli Tolvanen has tried to transition to the NHL but has failed for the past few years. He\’s still only 21, and scored 21 goals in 63 AHL games last year. Tolvanen has played in this KHL season, and had 13 points in 25 games. The Predators signed Erik Haula, who used to be teammates with Granlund in Minnesota. Haula is a two-way center who scored 12 goals in 41 games for Carolina last year before a trade to Florida. In 2017-18, his last season with over 50 games played, Haula scored 29 goals. Another former Wild, Luke Kunin was never teammates with Haula, but could be on his line this year. Kunin scored a career high 15 goals in 63 games with 31 points last year, but he had an ugly 45.3 CF%. Calle Jarnkrok scored 15 goals with 34 points in 64 games, and hit the 15 goal mark for the fourth time in the past five seasons. With Haula in the mix, Jarnkrok should be a full-time winger in 2020-21. The fourth line will be a mix of 4-5 players. Of those players, Rocco Grimaldi had the most points with 31, with 10 of them being goals. The five-foot-six winger has seen his role increase over the past two seasons. Between Montreal and Vegas last year, Nick Cousins scored 10 goals with 25 points, and had a 54.6 CF%. He had five assists in Vegas\’ 17 game playoff run, earning him a two-year contract in Nashville. Colton Sissons is under contract for the next six years, although last year he was mostly a defensive specialist. Sissons had 15 points in 57 games, but only Nick Bonino spent more time on the penalty kill among Predator forwards than Sissons. Brad Richardson scored just two goals in the postseason for Arizona in his five years there, but one of them ended the Predators\’ season. He proved that his 19 goal 2018-19 was a fluke last year, when he scored just six goals in 59 games. He won 54 percent of his face-offs, but he had an awful CF% of 42.5%. 2015 second rounder Yakov Trenin debuted as a rotation player last year, getting into 21 games. He had two goals with four assists. 

Defensemen

Roman Josi had received Norris votes for years, but finally won the award in 2019-20, when he posted career highs in goals (16), assists (49) and points (65) in 69 games. Josi had a 52.6 CF%, and he averaged nearly 26 minutes on ice a game. The Predators have to be satisfied with their top pairing of Josi and Ryan Ellis, who had 38 points in 49 games in 2019-20. His analytics are absolutely insane, as he had a 23.2 GAR, and Evolving-Hockey estimated his worth last year at $20.2 million (!!). While he had 33 points in 68 games, Mattias Ekholm is a defensive defenseman. He had a CF% over 50 for the sixth consecutive season, and no Predator spent more time on the penalty kill than him, at two minutes and 49 seconds a game. After trading away PK Subban, the Predators relied on rookie Dante Fabbro, who didn\’t blow anyone away. Fabbro had 11 points in 68 games, and excelled a lot more defensively than offensively. To ease the load on the right side, the Predators brought in Matt Benning, the son of Canucks GM Jim Benning. Over his four year career, Benning\’s average GAR is 7.45. He had eight points in 43 games for Edmonton last year, and was underutilized. Mark Borowiecki finally left Ottawa, where he was universally beloved. Borowiecki scored seven goals last year, and he only had multiple goals in one of his previous eight seasons. He is very physical, with 199 hits and 58 penalty minutes in 53 games. Jarred Tinordi played in 28 games last year, and before that he hadn\’t played in an NHL game since 2015-16. Tinordi scored once, his only goal over his five career seasons. The Predators acquired a former teammate of Borowiecki in Ben Harpur in a minor deal at the deadline. Harpur played in 103 games over four seasons for the Senators, but didn\’t appear in a game last year.

Goalies

Goaltending is a big question for the Predators, with Pekka Rinne expected to be Juuse Saros\’ 1A again. Entering his 15th season, all for the Predators, the 38 year old former Vezina winner posted the worst numbers of his career last year, with an .895 SV%, a 3.17 GAA and a -14.22 GSAA. Saros outplayed Rinne, and replaced him in the postseason. The 25 year old had a .914 SV% in his fourth full NHL season. 

Projected Lines

Filip Forsberg – Ryan Johansen – Viktor Arvidsson

Eeli Tolvanen – Matt Duchene – Mikael Granlund

Calle Jarnkrok – Erik Haula – Luke Kunin

Rocco Grimaldi – Nick Cousins – Colton Sissons

Extras: Brad Richardson, Yakov Trenin

Roman Josi – Ryan Ellis

Mattias Ekholm – Dante Fabbro 

Matt Borowiecki – Matt Benning

Extras: Jarred Tinordi, Ben Harpur

Projection

The Predators saw their success slip away from them last year, and they were bailed out by the pandemic to get to the playoffs. They didn\’t show much in Edmonton, and now as they enter a division with one more team than they are used to, their job gets harder. The door is closing on Nashville\’s window, and a sixth place finish, as a I project, will not help that window stay open. 

 

       The best way to describe the Canadiens is that they are an agent of chaos. They finished with a 31-31-9 record, and lost to the Red Wings of all teams four times. Yet, they go to the bubble, and eliminate the Penguins of all teams. Then, they compete well against the Flyers before getting knocked out. This chaos stems to GM Marc Bergevin, who sometimes makes absolutely amazing trades, and also sometimes gets robbed in a way that is so confusing, even armchair GMs could predict an easy downfall. Being Heath Ledger\’s Joker is a good way for entertainment, we already knew that, but not a great way to run a hockey team.

Additions: F Tyler Toffoli, F Josh Anderson, D Joel Edmundson, G Jake Allen, F Corey Perry, F Michael Frolik.

Subtractions: F Max Domi, F Nick Cousins, G Keith Kinkaid.

Best Move: Signing Tyler Toffoli to a four year deal.

Worst Move: Trading Max Domi and a third round pick to Columbus for Josh Anderson.

One Move I\’d Make: Try to get assets for Jonathan Drouin, who is too expensive for a potential third liner.

Best Contract: Brendan Gallagher, one year remaining with a $3.75 million cap hit, followed by six years with a $6.5 million cap hit. 

Worst Contract: Josh Anderson, seven years remaining with a $5.5 million cap hit. 

New Division Rivals: Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Toronto, Vancouver, Winnipeg.

Pending UFAs: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault, Joel Armia, Jordan Weal, Corey Perry, Michael Frolik.

Pending RFAs: Artturi Lehkonen, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Victor Mete.

Forwards

The Canadiens have about seven second line forwards, and no pure first liner. Brendan Gallagher is the closest to that. Coming off of two consecutive 30 goal seasons, Gallagher only hit 22 last year, but in 59 games, so his goals per game was about the same. He also had a CF% of 60.6, which is just about as high as you\’ll see. Tomas Tatar scored 22 goals as well, and led the team by a lot with 61 points. The Habs probably won\’t have the cap space to bring back both Tatar and Phillip Danault, who is the third member of the top line. He had 47 points last year, and is an exceptional defensive forward who kills a lot of penalties. The Habs signed Tyler Toffoli, who scored 24 goals and was one of the few bright spots for the Kings last year before he was dealt. In his eight year career, Toffoli has never had a CF% below 50 or below his team\’s average. Nick Suzuki had a great rookie season as a 20 year old, scoring 13 goals with 41 points in 71 games. He finished ninth in Calder voting, and there may have been a case for a better spot. Suzuki is ready to become a full-time second line center. Jonathan Drouin had 53 points in 2018-19, but played in just 27 games last year, scoring seven goals with eight assists. The battle for the last top-six spot is between Drouin and Josh Anderson. The Canadiens obviously like Anderson, enough to trade Max Domi for him and then extend him for seven years. Anderson was limited to 26 games in 2019-20, but he scored just one goal. Anderson scored 27 goals the year before, but he may be suited better for a third line role thanks to his physicality. Jesperi Kotkaniemi really endured a sophomore slump last year, with eight points in 36 games. It became bad enough that he was demoted to the AHL at one point. He\’s only 20, so it\’s not like his career is lost or anything. Only Danault spent more time on the penalty kill among Habs forwards than Artturi Lehkonen. Lehkonen hit the 20 point mark and the 10 goal mark for the fourth season in a row. His 13 goals last year were his most since his rookie season of 2016-17. In his second season in Montreal, Joel Armia scored 16 goals with 30 points. The big winger had a career high 146 hits and 28 penalty minutes. Paul Byron had 10 points in 29 games last year. He kills penalties and is a two-time 20 goal scorer. The Canadiens don\’t really have another center in their bottom-six besides Kotkaniemi, which will prevent Corey Perry from being a full-time player. The pesky Perry recently signed with the team. He spent last year with the Stars, where he had 21 points in 57 games. Instead, the fourth line center will be either Jordan Weal or Ryan Poehling. Weal has 25 points in 65 games since joining Montreal in 2018-19. After scoring a hat trick in his debut in the last game of 2018-19, Poehling did not follow that up with success last year. He had just two points in 27 games, and in the AHL, he had 13 points in 36 games. The team signed veteran Michael Frolik, who is entering his 13th season, and will be playing for his sixth team. Frolik had a career low 14 points in 57 games for the Flames and Sabres last year. Charles Hudon has always tried to join the lineup rotation, but ends up failing. He played in 15 games last year, and had two points. 

Defensemen

Unlike the all-out brawl that is their forward core, the Canadiens have a more stable defensive system. The top two pairing should stay intact from last year, where both right handed shot defenders carry the load. That starts with Shea Weber, who I think we can say was on the winning side of the Weber/Subban trade from a few years ago. Weber scored 15(!!) goals in 65 games last year, which is funny because Joel Armia did even better and we don\’t care about that as much. Weber averaged exactly 24 minutes on ice a night, and with his signature hard shot, he finished with three Norris votes received. Ben Chiarot scored a career high nine goals and 21 points in 69 games, and he had a 54.5 CF%. Oddly enough, that was below the team average. Jeff Petry scored 11 goals with 40 points, hitting those marks for the third consecutive season. He had a 57 CF% with a GAR of 8.6. Petry played with Brett Kulak a lot, whose 113 games in two seasons in Montreal is more than he had in four seasons with the Flames. Kulak had seven assists with a 56.6 CF% in 56 games. The Canadiens traded for the rights of Joel Edmundson, then signed him to a four year deal with a $3.5 million cap hit. In 68 games for Carolina last year, he had a career high 20 points. He\’s a fine third pairing defenseman for a team that needs one. He could be a safety blanket for Alexander Romanov, who has offensive potential, but was blocked on a stacked CSKA Moscow team in the KHL. The 20 year old had seven assists in 43 games. Victor Mete entered 2019-20 with 120 games played and zero goals. He scored four times in 51 games, with 11 points. Romanov will push him out of the top-six. 

Goalies

The Habs decided that they were going to get their money\’s worth of Carey Price one way or another, as they overused him, as he started a league high 58 games. That led to a low .909 SV% and a 2.79 GAA. When he finally got a break and returned in the postseason, vintage Carey Price showed up, as he had a .936 SV% with a 1.78 GAA in 10 games. Since Price didn\’t have a backup at all last year, the team went out and traded a third and a seventh round pick for Jake Allen. In 24 games last year, Allen had a .927 SV% with a 2.15 GAA. 

Projected Lines

Tomas Tatar – Phillip Danault – Brendan Gallagher

Jonathan Drouin – Nick Suzuki – Tyler Toffoli

Artturi Lehkonen – Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Josh Anderson

Paul Byron – Jordan Weal – Joel Armia

Extras: Corey Perry, Ryan Poehling, Michael Frolik, Charles Hudon

Ben Chiarot – Shea Weber

Brett Kulak – Jeff Petry 

Joel Edmundson – Alex Romanov

Extras: Victor Mete

Carey Price

Jake Allen

Projection

The Canadiens have an all-around good team. But, they kind of get lost in the mix in a Canadian Division where everyone gets lost in the mix. Adding Anderson and Perry makes them tougher to play against, but in the end, it comes down to two of Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Montreal not making the playoffs. I say it will be the former two, not the latter.