CarterHud

 

       It feels like it should be the time for the Wild to either blow up or go for it. They\’ve failed to pick a side over the past few years, sometimes making seller moves (trading away Jason Zucker, Charlie Coyle and Nino Niederreiter), but also buyer moves (getting Nick Bonino, not trading their top-four). This indecisiveness has led them down a (seemingly) path of eternal mediocrity. It feels like it\’s time something changed, and with a bunch of pending free agents, the change is probably headed downward. 

Additions: F Marcus Johansson, F Nick Bonino, F Nick Bjugstad, G Cam Talbot.

Subtractions: F Eric Staal, F Luke Kunin, F Ryan Donato, F Mikko Koivu, G Devan Dubnyk, F Alex Galchenyuk.

but at least Best Move: Trading a 4th round pick and Luke Kunin to Nashville for Nick Bonino, a 2nd and a 3rd round pick. 

Worst Move: Trading Eric Staal to Buffalo for Marcus Johansson.

One Move I\’d Make: Trade Alex Stalock to the Oilers.

Best Contract: D Matt Dumba, three years remaining with a $6 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: F Zach Parise, five years remaining with a $7.538 million cap hit. 

New Division Rivals: Anaheim, Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles, San Jose, St. Louis, Vegas. 

Pending UFAs: Marcus Johansson, Nick Bonino, Nick Bjugstad, Marcus Foligno, Greg Pateryn, Brad Hunt.

Pending RFAs: Kevin Fiala, Ryan Hartman, Joel Eriksson Ek, Kirill Kaprizov.

Forwards

The player who led the Wild in points was probably the most ideal player to lead them in points. In his first full season with the Wild, Kevin Fiala scored 23 goals with 54 points, and he\’s only 24 years old. He scored three goals in four playoff games. Another season like that, and he\’ll get paid as an RFA after 2020-21. The Wild finally got Kirill Kaprizov to come over from the KHL. One of the top prospects in hockey, Kaprizov scored 33 goals with 62 points in 57 KHL games. He\’ll be a top-six forward this year. Zach Parise is 36 and has five years left on his contract, but at least he still led the team with 25 goals last year. Parise is mainly a power play specialist, scoring 12 of his goals on the man advantage. The team is lacking a top-six center, which means that Marcus Johansson might be the first line center. He\’s played his best hockey on the wing, making the Wild giving up Eric Staal for Johansson questionable. Johansson scored just nine goals with 30 points in 60 games for the Sabres last year. His last 20+ goal season was 2016-17. When all the hype about his lizard-like abilities died down, Mats Zuccarello quietly scored 15 goals in 65 games, with 37 points. He\’s 33 and probably overpaid, but he still gave Minnesota second line production last year. Arm surgery has him out for at least the start of the season, but I\’ll keep him in the projected lines since he might not miss significant time. The guy who would replace Zuccarello for now is Jordan Greenway, who is 10 inches taller than Zuccarello. The physical forward played in 67 games last year, and recorded 28 points. Former first rounder Joel Eriksson Ek had a career high 29 points in 62 games last year, but he had a career low 47.6 CF%. The Wild made a great move upgrading Luke Kunin into Nick Bonino. Bonino scored 18 goals with 35 points in 2019-20, and he is a great two-way center who can kill penalties. It\’s not a stretch that he could be their first line center. Minnesota native Nick Bjugstad has had a rough last few years. A 49 point scorer in 2017-18, Bjugstad was sidelined by injuries and played in just 13 games, with two points in them. For the first time in his career, Marcus Foligno actually outscored his brother Nick, 11 to 10. Marcus finished with a career high 25 points in 59 games. He also had an above average 51.4 CF%. Ryan Hartman finished with 20 points, and was one goal away from hitting double digits for the fourth year in a row. He kills penalties, and had a career high 9.2 GAR last year. Victor Rask\’s career has fallen off a cliff since leaving Carolina. He had 13 points in 43 games last year, although he did actually improve from his 2018-19 season. 25 year old German Nico Sturm will get a spot in the lineup with Zuccarello out. He has two assists in eight career NHL games, with six of them coming last year. After a 32 point AHL campaign, Sturm scored his first career goal in the postseason. The Wild drafted Marco Rossi ninth overall this year. Rossi scored 39 goals with 120 points in 56 OHL games last year. He could start the year with the team, and if he does, he\’ll start. 

Defensemen

Ryan Suter is in the same bad contract situation as Parise. Suter is still on the border of elite, as he had 48 points in 69 games last year, and averaged 24 minutes and 38 seconds on ice a night. The Wild have formed an elite top pairing with Suter and Jared Spurgeon, who signed a seven year extension. Spurgeon scored 12 goals with 32 points in 62 games, and received Norris votes for the third time in four years, and Byng votes for the sixth straight season. Spurgeon had a 52.3 CF%, which was higher than his partner. Mathew Dumba won the King Clancy award in the offseason, and survived trade rumors. Dumba had 24 points in 69 games, which was only two points more than he had in 37 less games in the previous season. Defense-only defenseman Jonas Brodin was extended for six years after this year. Brodin had a career high 28 points in 69 games, with a GAR of 11.8. There\’s a big drop-off to the third pairing, with Carson Soucy being the one lock. Soucy scored seven goals with seven assists in 55 games, and earned a three year extension with a $2.75 million cap hit. Brad Hunt has the lead on oft-injured Greg Pateryn for the final spot. Hunt scored eight goals with 19 points in 59 games last year, and played on the second power play unit. Pateryn played in 80 games in 2018-19, but had three assists in 20 games last year. 

Goalies

The one known constant in the goalie rotation for Minnesota is Cam Talbot, who comes in on a three year deal. Talbot had a .919 SV% with a 2.63 GAA in 26 games for the Flames last year. Being overused hurt his stats in the prior two seasons, but Talbot has been a stable goalie for a long time. Backup Alex Stalock is out with an upper body injury for now. Stalock had a .910 SV% in 38 games last year, and started all four playoff games for the Wild against the Canucks. If Stalock misses time, Talbot\’s backup will be top goalie prospect Kaapo Kahkonen, who had a .913 SV% in five NHL games last year. In the AHL, Kahkonen played in 34 games with a .927 SV%. 

Projected Lines

Zach Parise – Marcus Johansson – Kevin Fiala

Kirill Kaprizov – Joel Eriksson Ek – Mats Zuccarello 

Jordan Greenway – Nick Bonino – Nick Bjugstad

Marcus Foligno – Victor Rask – Ryan Hartman

Extras: Nico Sturm, Marco Rossi

Ryan Suter – Jared Spurgeon

Jonas Brodin – Mathew Dumba

Carson Soucy – Brad Hunt

Extras: Greg Pateryn

Cam Talbot

Alex Stalock

Extras: Kaapo Kahkonen

Projection

Mediocrity is the Wild\’s ally. They were born in it, molded by it. Even with an open spot in the West Division, guarded by the Arizona Coyotes of all teams, the Wild will have a tough time getting in this year. I predict that they\’ll finish in 5th place, missing the postseason. 

       A good way to sum up the Kings\’ roster is that there are a couple of high paid, aging players, and then  just about nothing else. These next few years are meant for building up the Kings\’ young talent and seeing what sticks, and what doesn\’t. 

Additions: F Andreas Athanasiou, D Olli Maatta.

Subtractions: D Ben Hutton, F Trevor Lewis, D Joakim Ryan.

Best Move: Signing Andreas Athanasiou to a one year deal. 

Worst Move: Not taking more chances on the younger UFAs, or offer sheets (I\’m talking to you, Anthony Cirelli).

One Move I\’d Make: Check in on the not smart GMs on if they want Drew Doughty.

Best Contract: Adrian Kempe, two years remaining with a $2 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: Drew Doughty, seven years remaining with an $11 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Anaheim, Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, San Jose, St. Louis, Vegas.

Pending UFAs: Alex Iafallo. 

Pending RFAs: Andreas Athanasiou, Blake Lizotte, Matt Roy, Trevor Moore, Michael Amadio.

Forwards

While he isn\’t worth the $10 million he\’ll earn for the next four seasons, Anze Kopitar is still the best forward in Los Angeles. Kopitar scored 21 goals, hitting the 20 goal mark for the 11th time in his career, and he led the team with 62 points. He received a Byng vote, and finished seventh in Selke voting. Alex Iafallo was second on the team in points, with 43. He scored 17 goals, and because he arrived in the NHL at a late age, he\’ll become a UFA after his fourth season. The Kings will have the cap space to retain him, although they might trade him at the deadline. Former captain Dustin Brown is entering his 17th season with the franchise. Brown scored 17 goals with 35 points in 66 games last year, and that point total was higher than any of his seasons from 2012-13 to 2015-16, with some of those earlier years coming in his prime. Adrian Kempe scored 11 goals, hitting at least that mark for the third straight season. He also had 32 points with a 55.2 CF%. In his first full NHL season, Blake Lizotte had 23 points in 65 games, with a 55.1 CF%. Kempe and Lizotte played a lot together last year. Since both have more defensive value than offensive value, the Kings could balance that out by putting them with Andreas Athanasiou, who they signed yesterday. Athanasiou is the polar opposite, an all-offensive speedster. He scored 30 goals in 2018-19, but only had 11 in 55 games last year. While the top-six consists of more experienced players, the bottom-six consists of mostly rookies. One of the exceptions to that is Jeff Carter, who is moving to right wing. Entering his 16th NHL season, Carter scored 17 goals in 60 games last year. He could play with two of the teams\’ best prospects, Gabe Vilardi and Quinton Byfield. Vilardi scored three goals with four assists in a 10 game NHL trial, and had 25 points in 32 AHL games. The second overall pick in the draft earlier this year, Byfield scored 32 goals with 82 points in 45 games as a 17 year old in the OHL. One of them will have to play the wing unless the Kings stick them on the fourth line, and I think that could be Byfield for now. Martin Frk scored six goals in 17 games last year, and was a power play specialist in the AHL, scoring 23 goals with 36 points in 37 games for the Ontario Reign. A second rounder in 2019, Samuel Fagemo has a chance at the starting lineup. He scored 13 goals in 42 games for Frolunda in Sweden last year. He has 11 points in 18 games in Sweden this year. The Kings traded a second rounder for 2017 7th overall pick Lias Andersson, whose stock has tumbled over the past few years. Andersson had 11 points in 19 games in Sweden this year, and has nine points in 66 NHL games for the Rangers. 2014 third rounder Michael Amadio scored a career high 16 points in 68 games. The influx of young talent coming in could push Amadio and Austin Wagner out of the lineup. Wagner played in 65 games last year, with 11 points and a 54.9 CF%. 

Defensemen

Drew Doughty has tumbled over the past two seasons. A former Norris winner, Doughty had 35 points in 67 games last year. But, for the second consecutive season, Evolving-Hockey estimated his value at negative dollars. That isn\’t good for a guy with an $11 million cap hit for the next seven years. Olli Maatta comes in with the tough task of turning that around. He had 17 points in 65 games for the Blackhawks last year, with a 6.7 GAR. Puck moving defenseman Sean Walker had a nice rookie season, with 24 points in 70 games. That play earned him a four year extension with a $2.65 million cap hit. Another puck moving defenseman, Michael Anderson, got into six NHL games and had a goal last year. Anderson had 15 points in 53 AHL games. He was a 4th rounder in 2017 who went to Duluth for two years. While Walker finished with more points, Matt Roy got a Calder vote and a Byng vote. Roy had 18 points in 70 games, but had a very high GAR of 12.4. Roy also had a 56.1 CF%. 2019 first rounder Tobias Bjornfot got into three games at the beginning of the season, then went to the AHL. There, he had 19 points in 44 games. During the break, Bjornfot played in his home country of Sweden. Kurtis MacDermid got into NHL games for the third straight season, this team with a career high 45 games played. He had eight points in those games. 

Goalies

Jonathan Quick is still the starter at the moment. Quick will turn 35 a week after the season starts, and he had a negative GSAA for the second consecutive season last year. 2019-20 was actually an improvement on an awful 2018-19. Quick finished with a .904 SV% and a 2.79 GAA in 42 starts. Cal Petersen has rough AHL numbers, but has performed in 19 career NHL games, eight of which came in 2019-20. Petersen has a .923 career SV%, and will be a full-time back-up in 2020-21. 

Projected Lines

Alex Iafallo – Anze Kopitar – Dustin Brown

Adrian Kempe – Blake Lizotte – Andreas Athanasiou

Quinton Byfield – Gabe Vilardi – Jeff Carter

Samuel Fagemo – Lias Andersson – Martin Frk

Extras: Michael Amadio, Austin Wagner

Olli Maatta – Drew Doughty

Michael Anderson – Sean Walker

Tobias Bjornfot – Matt Roy

Jonathan Quick

Cal Petersen

Projection

2020-21 is a great chance for the Kings to work on developing young players. The team is really bad, but they are the only team in the NHL that actively hopes that their bottom-six outplays their top-six. I think that the Kings could easily finish dead last in the NHL this year, but at least they could have some bright spots, like Byfield or Vilardi or Bjornfot.

 

       The Philadelphia Phillies have acquired LHP Jose Alvarado from the Tampa Bay Rays in a three-team trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers sent 1B Dillon Paulson and a player to be named later to the Rays, while the Phillies sent LHP Garrett Cleavinger to the Dodgers. 

       The Phillies didn\’t just have the worst bullpen in baseball last year, they might have had the worst bullpen ever. With an ERA over 7.00, it\’s definitely an area that new President Dave Dombrowski and new GM Sam Fuld want to improve on. Alvarado is a four year veteran with a hard sinker that in 2019 averaged 98.1 mph. That dipped to 96.9 in nine appearances in 2020, but that\’s still potent. Also, his pitches move like this. Alvarado was lights out in 2018, with a 2.39 ERA and an 11.3 K/9 in 64 innings, but he\’s fallen off a little bit since then, with injuries playing a big role in that. He\’s young too, actually more than a year younger than the guy the Phillies gave up, Cleavinger. Even if he repeats his weak 2019, where he finished with a 4.80 ERA, it is still an improvement on what the pen gave the Phillies last year. 

        Alvarado, 25, had a 6.00 ERA with a 1.667 WHIP, 13 strikeouts and a 5.86 FIP in nine innings for the Rays in 2020. In his MLB career, all in Tampa Bay, Alvarado has a 3.46 ERA with a 1.319 WHIP, 161 strikeouts, 15 saves and a 3.01 FIP in 132.2 innings.

       The Rays have too many good relievers that it\’s actually a problem. By the end of the postseason of this year, Alvarado\’s injuries and poor play made him expendable. The team loves to trade talent for prospects, and this move can make sense, unlike the Blake Snell trade from yesterday. Even in that deal, the Rays got Luis Patino, who could be the next star reliever for them in 2021. A 13th rounder by the Dodgers in 2018, Paulson hit well in his last year at the University of Southern California, with an .874 OPS. He\’s spent a year and a half in the minors, and has good offensive numbers.

       Paulson, 23, hit 16 home runs with a .243 average and an OPS of .798 in 503 Plate Appearances in 2019 between High-A Rancho Cucamonga and Single-A Great Lakes. In his minor league career, Paulson has hit 26 home runs with a .253 average and an OPS of .837 in 778 Plate Appearances.

       This trade is least significant for the Dodgers, who make a prospect swap. While one of the outgoing prospects is TBD, they bring in Cleavinger, a 2015 3rd rounder by the Orioles who they traded to the Phillies with Hyun Soo Kim in 2017 for Jeremy Hellickson. When the Phillies were at the stage where they were watching whoever threw out the first pitch and scouting him or her for their bullpen, Cleavinger was one of the guys who got a call to the majors. He pitched in one game, striking Andres Gimenez, but allowing a home run to Robinson Cano in two thirds of an inning. In the minors in 2019, Cleavinger had nice numbers as a reliever, and while he isn\’t young, he could be a AAA or MLB bullpen option for the Dodgers.

        Cleavinger, 26, had a 3.66 ERA with 83 strikeouts and a 1.277 WHIP in 51.2 innings for AA Reading in 2019. In his minor league career, Cleavinger has a 4.08 ERA with 294 strikeouts and a 1.389 WHIP in 220.1 innings. 

From Getty Images

 

       For all of last year, the Panthers were embracing for pain. They knew that Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov were free agents, and that they couldn\’t sign both, or maybe even one of them. Even more quality players like Erik Haula left, but in came a savior to get them on the road to recovery. Longtime GM Dale Tallon was fired, and former Columbus AGM Bill Zito came in and did a great job. Zito went to the cheap side of the market, and got a ton of quality players to replenish the Panthers, and brought in some of his former Blue Jackets as well. 

Additions: F Anthony Duclair, F Patric Hornqvist, F Alex Wennberg, D Markus Nutivaara, F Vinnie Hinostroza, D Radko Gudas, F Carter Verhaeghe, F Ryan Lomberg, D Kevin Connauton (PTO), G Scott Darling (PTO).

Subtractions: F Mike Hoffman, F Evgenii Dadonov, F Erik Haula, D Mike Matheson, D Mark Pysyk, F Colton Sceviour, F Brian Boyle, D Josh Brown, F Lucas Wallmark, F Dryden Hunt.

Best Move: Trading Mike Matheson and Colton Sceviour to Pittsburgh for Patric Hornqvist.

Worst Move: Signing Radio Gudas to a three year deal.

One Move I\’d Make: Bring back Brian Boyle, maybe on a PTO.

Best Contract: Aleksander Barkov, two years remaining with a $5.9 million cap hit. 

Worst Contract: Sergei Bobrovsky, six years remaining with a $10 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Carolina, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Nashville, Tampa Bay.

Pending UFAs: Alex Wennberg, Vinnie Hinostroza, Chris Driedger.

Pending RFAs: Anthony Duclair, Riley Stillman, Brady Keeper, Chase Priskie, Sam Montembeault.

Current RFAs: Aleksi Saarela, Henrik Borgstrom.

Forwards

The dynamic duo of Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau will return for another season. With Hoffman and Dadonov gone, Huberdeau\’s 23 goals is the most among returning Panthers. He also led the team with 78 points in 69 games. Barkov received Byng and Selke votes for the fifth consecutive season. He scored 20 goals, hitting that mark for the fifth time in a row, and had 62 points in 66 games. The Panthers have a lot of cap flexibility thanks to Barkov and Huberdeau having matching $5.9 million cap hits. They might have trouble after 2021-22, when Barkov is a UFA, with Huberdeau\’s deal expiring the year afterwards. Whoever replaces Dadonov on the right wing is a mystery, with many different options available for Head Coach Joel Quenneville. In his first two full seasons in Florida, Frank Vatrano has combined for 40 goals and 33 assists, with 16 of those goals coming in 2019-20. In his prime, Patric Hornqvist was a great goal scorer, especially on the power play. He played in 52 games for the Penguins last year, but still managed to score 17 goals, with three of them coming on the man advantage. Vincent Trocheck was traded to Carolina last year, and his replacement, Erik Haula, also left as a free agent. Alex Wennberg looks to be the replacement to both for the time being. He was overpaid with Zito\’s Blue Jackets, leading to his buyout, but he always had a CF% above the team average. Wennberg does not score goals whatsoever, but can rack up assists. Put him with a goal scorer like Hornqvist, and that would work. Another former Blue Jacket, Anthony Duclair comes in on a cheap, $1.7 million deal. His career came back on track with Ottawa, as he scored 23 goals with 40 points in 66 games. Duclair is 25 and the Panthers are already his sixth team. The Panthers signed Brett Connolly to a four year deal after he scored 22 goals in Washington, and he did score at a higher pace in year one with Florida. In 69 games, Connolly netted 19 goals with a 52.3 CF%. The 10th overall pick in 2017, Owen Tippett was regarded as one of the top goal scorers in the draft at the time. He definitely scored in the OHL, and in his first AHL season last year, Tippett scored 19 goals with 40 points in 46 games. A fourth liner in Boston, Noel Acciari played saw some first line action with the Panthers, and scored 20 goals when his average ice time increased by three minutes a game. Somehow, he only had seven assists. Don\’t expect his goal scoring to continue, but he can still kill penalties. The Panthers brought in Vinnie Hinostroza on a nice, cheap one year deal. He scored 16 goals in 2018-19, but that fell to five in 68 games for Arizona last year. He recorded 17 assists as well. Carter Verhaeghe finally got a chance in Tampa last year, and scored nine goals in 52 games, and got into eight games during their run to the Stanley Cup. In 2018-19, Verhaeghe scored 34 goals with 82 points in 76 AHL games. The Panthers acquired Aleksi Saarela in a minor deal in October 2019 from Chicago. He scored two goals with two assists in nine games last year. Saarela scored 12 goals in 19 games while playing in Finland during the break. When the season starts, he will be 24 years old. The Panthers signed Ryan Lomberg to a two year, one way deal after he scored 11 goals with 20 points in 21 AHL games. While he only had 14 penalty minutes, in prior years Lomberg played an old-school style. In 11 NHL games, he has 32 penalty minutes. Former first rounder Henrik Borgstrom has been disappointing in the AHL and NHL. He had 23 points in 49 AHL games last year. 2018 first rounder Grigori Denisenko is coming to America from the KHL. Last year, he had 12 points in 38 games. 

Defensemen

While Aaron Ekblad only scored five goals, not hitting the double digit mark for the first time in his career, he scored a career high 41 points in a career low 67 games, and averaged one second under 23 minutes a night. Ekblad had an amazing 11.4 GAR. He plays with analytics darling MacKenzie Weegar, who was an RFA rumored to be in trade talks this past offseason. Weegar had 18 points in 45 games, with an 8.4 GAR. He may be 34 years old, but Keith Yandle can still put up points. Yandle finished with 45 points in 69 games, hitting the 40 point plateau for the 10th consecutive season (minimum 50 games). Anton Stralman signed a three year deal last offseason that was questionable at the time. The 34 year old had 19 points in 64 games, with his lowest GAR since 2010-11. He is overpaid now with a $5.5 million cap hit. Florida traded away AHLer Cliff Pu to acquire Markus Nutivaara, who had nine points in 37 games last year. He doesn\’t bring much to the table offensively, but Nutivaara is a nice third pairing defensive defenseman. Hard hitting defenseman Radko Gudas comes in to replace Mike Matheson, who had an awful 2019-20. Gudas had 164 hits in 63 games for Washington last year, with 15 points and a career best +15 rating. He averaged under 17 minutes a night for the first time in his career. 22 year old Riley Stillman has no goals in 35 career NHL games. 34 of them came last year, and he had five assists. He played in three of the team\’s playoff games. Brady Keeper had 18 points with 108 penalty minutes in 61 games in the AHL last year, and subbed in for Stillman in one postseason game. 

Goalies

Sergei Bobrovsky is known to be inconsistent at times. He\’s had some great seasons, some good seasons, and some mediocre seasons. Last year might have been his first truly bad season since he was a Flyer. Bobrovsky had a .900 SV% with a 3.23 GAA and a -14.91 GSAA, making every single person in the organization question the seven year, $70 million contract Bobrovsky signed before the season. When he\’s on his game, he\’s a top-three goalie in the league. It would be odd to see a two-time Vezina winner suddenly fall off of a cliff. For a few years, Chris Driedger was either the third goalie in Ottawa or stuck in the AHL. He finally got an NHL chance last year as Bob\’s backup, and capitalized, with a 2.05 GAA and a .938 SV% in 12 games. That play will earn him the job over Sam Montembeault, a 24 year old who had an .890 SV% in 14 games in 2019-20. 

Projected Lines

Jonathan Huberdeau – Aleksander Barkov – Frank Vatrano

Anthony Duclair – Alex Wennberg – Patric Hornqvist

Brett Connolly – Noel Acciari – Owen Tippett

Aleksi Saarela – Carter Verhaeghe – Vinnie Hinostroza

Extras: Ryan Lomberg, Henrik Borgstrom, Grigori Denisenko

MacKenzie Weegar – Aaron Ekblad

Keith Yandle – Markus Nutivaara

Anton Stralman – Radko Gudas

Extras: Riley Stillman, Brady Keeper

Sergei Bobrovsky

Chris Driedger

Extras: Sam Montembeault

Projection

The Panthers look a lot better than they did before. While you wouldn\’t expect that after losing Hoffman, Dadonov and others, Zito did a nice job adding scorers and depth players so that there are no apparent holes. Depending on Bobrovsky\’s play, goaltending might be one of them. Of course, the last playoff spot will come down to Florida and Zito\’s old team, the Blue Jackets. I\’d give Columbus the edge, but if we see vintage Bobrovsky, I wouldn\’t be surprised if the Panthers can push themselves in. 

 

       The San Diego Padres have acquired RHP Yu Darvish and C Victor Caratini from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for RHP Zach Davies, shortstops Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana, plus OFs Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena. 

       The Padres are going for it, if last night\’s trade for Blake Snell didn\’t make that obvious. Darvish is six years older than Snell, but is coming off a renaissance season in 2020. Darvish finished 2nd in NL Cy Young voting, and 14th in MVP. Darvish has always been a strikeout machine, and his 11.1 K/9 in his career is an all-time record. Seriously. That\’s better than the likes of Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Clayton Kershaw. You name him, Darvish has a better K/9. It\’s crazy that he\’ll be the second best starter next year, with Dinelson Lamet being the third starter. The Padres don\’t give up a top-10 prospect in this deal, and the main piece going back is Davies, who Darvish is much better than. The Padres also get Caratini, Darvish\’s personal catcher, in this deal. In his four seasons, Caratini was only an above average hitter in 2019, when he finished with a 105 OPS+. 

        Darvish, 34, had a 2.01 ERA with 93 strikeouts, a .961 WHIP and a 2.23 FIP in 76 innings for the Cubs last year. In his MLB career for the Cubs, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers, Darvish has a 3.47 ERA with 1392 strikeouts, a 1.160 WHIP and a 3.43 FIP in 1127 innings. 

        Caratini, 27, hit one home run with a .241 average and an OPS of .661 in 132 Plate Appearances for the Cubs in 2020. In his MLB career, all in Chicago, Caratini has hit 15 home runs with a .250 average and a .699 OPS in 677 Plate Appearances. 

        The Cubs want to cut payroll, but this deal still is bad for them. Darvish is owed $22 million, $19 million and $18 million in the next three seasons, respectively. While that is a lot of money, it\’s cheap for the production Darvish gave them in 2020. While selling high on a 34 is a smart concept, it cheapens out when the team cheapens out, and when the team is still a contender. Plus, the package is unimpressive. They failed to acquire a top-10 prospect in the Padres organization, and the four prospects look like extreme lottery tickets. The Cubs saw Davies a lot when he played for the Brewers, and while he was really good in 2020, he does not throw hard at all, or strike guys out. Preciado is ranked as the highest prospect of the group by MLB Pipeline, and was number 11 in the San Diego organization prior to the deal. He\’s still legally a minor at age 17, and has no minor league experience whatsoever. He\’s a switch hitter who signed with the Padres for a $1.3 million signing bonus, the most ever for a kid out of Panama. A 2020 2nd rounder, Caissie is an 18 year old Canadian who was drafted out of Notre Dame High School. The third prospect in the deal with no minor league experience, Mena was 15th overall in the Padres system after earning a $2.2 million signing bonus as a 16 year old. Now 18, Mena has great speed and is a good defender in the outfield. Santana finally gives me some stats to report, as the 20 year old formerly ranked 16th in the organization played in the Arizona League in 2019. He hit well there, and is said to be San Diego\’s best signing from the 2017-18 international free agent class. 

         Davies, who will be 28 in February, had a 2.73 ERA with a 1.067 WHIP, 63 strikeouts and a 3.88 FIP in 69.1 innings in 2020. In his MLB career for the Padres and Milwaukee Brewers, Davies has a 3.79 ERA with 497 strikeouts, a 1.275 WHIP and a 4.18 FIP in 683.2 innings. 

         Santana, 20, hit three home runs with four stolen bases, a .346 average and an OPS of .923 in 192 Plate Appearances in Rookie ball in 2019.