CarterHud

 

       Not many things are going right for Ducks fans right now. The team is in shambles, with a bad salary cap situation, and their young talent has not blossomed yet. At least we\’re getting a new Mighty Ducks movie, right? Even in the trailer the Ducks look like the bad guys, so even the thing the franchise is most known for is negative towards them at the moment. The team said goodbye to Corey Perry last year, and Ryan Getzlaf soon should be next. Even John Gibson\’s career is taking a downturn. Either a blow-up or great luck should be coming to Anaheim in the next 365 days. 

Additions: D Kevin Shattenkirk, F Derek Grant, D Kodie Curran.

Subtractions: D Erik Gudbranson, G Ryan Miller, D Michael Del Zotto.

Best Move: Signing Kevin Shattenkirk to a three year deal ($3.9 million AAV).

Worst Move: Not signing a back-up goalie.

One Move I\’d Make: Trade away Ryan Getzlaf.

Best Contract: Rickard Rakell, two years remaining with a $3.78 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: Ryan Kesler, two years remaining with a $6.875 million cap hit. 

New Division Rivals: Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles, Minnesota, San Jose, St. Louis, Vegas. 

Forwards

The top line for the Ducks starts with a pair of 30 year olds who both have four years left on their contracts. Considering they\’ve hit 30 goals once combined, that is not a great start. Both Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg are nice players to have, but neither are legitimate first line players, and trading away Silfverberg instead of extending him in 2019 would have been the harder, but better move. Henrique led the team with 26 goals and 43 points, and was one of two players to appear in all 71 games for them. Silfverberg would be a nice secondary scorer for a playoff team, as he can consistently hit around 20 goals and 40 points, but he has never hit 25 goals or 50 points in a season. Their lineman would likely be Rickard Rakell, a 27 year old who has not hit 20 goals or 45 points since he scored 34 goals with 69 points in 2017-18. Ryan Getzlaf has not played in 70 games since 2016-17, although he was a game away before the season ended this year. 2011-12 was his last full season. His 29 assists in 2019-20 was his lowest since he was 20 years old in 2005-06. A free agent at the end of the year, it will be interesting to see if the Ducks shop Getzlaf at the trade deadline. Whoever his line mates are, they\’ll likely be a decade younger than him.  Danton Heinen came over at the trade deadline for Nick Ritchie in a deal that looks pretty good after Ritchie struggled with Boston earlier this year. Heinen scored three goals in nine games for Anaheim, averaging over 16 minutes a game, something he never did with the Bruins. Another trade deadline acquisition, Sonny Milano is a former first round pick who never broke out. He had five points in nine games for Anaheim. Former World Juniors hero Troy Terry has 28 points in 81 career games, spanning over three seasons. A late first rounder acquired when the Ducks traded away Frederik Andersen, Sam Steel only scored six goals in 65 games, with 16 assists. Max Jones and Max Comtois are 22 and 21 respectively, with few NHL games played. They are competing for the same left wing spot on the third line. Jones has more games played, but Comtois, who captained Team Canada at the World Juniors, has 0.46 points per game in his short NHL career. Former first rounders Trevor Zegras and Isac Lundestrom could both appear in games this year, but some more conditioning would be a better option. The fourth line will consist of veterans, starting with Derek Grant, who signed a three year deal in the offseason and will enter his third stint with the Ducks. He scored 14 goals in 49 games for them last year before a trade to Philadelphia. Carter Rowney was the other player to appear in every game for Anaheim in 2020-21. He has become a decent regular for the team in his two years since leaving Pittsburgh. Grinder Nicolas Deslauriers played in 59 games, his most since 2016-17, and racked up a career high 92 penalty minutes. David Backes had three assists in six games after coming in as a salary dump from Boston. He could see some fourth line time unless the Ducks decide to bury him in the AHL. 

Defensemen

Soon the Ducks will have to make an important decision on whether to extend or trade Hampus Lindholm. He will be 27 a week into the season, and he\’s been a top-pairing defenseman for them for years. In two years he will be an unrestricted free agent. His partner, fellow defensive defenseman Josh Manson, will also be a UFA in two seasons. Manson is older than Lindholm but his right-handed shot has helped boost his value. Manson had just nine points in 50 games this past year. Cam Fowler has appeared in exactly 59 games in each of the last two seasons. For a player signed through 2025-26, the Ducks need him on the ice more. They got Fowler a new partner in reigning Stanley Cup winner Kevin Shattenkirk. Shattenkirk had a renaissance analytically for the Lightning last year, and had 34 points in 70 games. The top two pairings feel concrete, although the third pairing can go a lot of different ways. Former first rounder Jacob Larsson led Ducks defensemen with 60 games played last year, but he has a career CF% of 45.1. 31 year old Kodie Curran signed a two year deal after he put him 49 points in 48 games in Sweden. Curran\’s main competition is former Capitals prospect Christian Djoos, who had three points in a nine game stint with Anaheim. Josh Mahura and Brendan Guhle both have upside, and Jani Hakanpaa has NHL experience. 

Goalies

There was a point in time where John Gibson was 23 and considered by many as a top-10 goalie in the league, thanks to a high GSAA. Gibson\’s GSAA turned negative in 2019-20, down to -8.66. He also saw career worsts in GAA (3.00) and SV% (.904). It doesn\’t help that Ryan Miller is gone, and no one was brought in to back-up Gibson. The best option right now is Anthony Stolarz, who only has 26 career games but is less than a year younger than Gibson. He had a .922 SV% in 39 AHL games last year, and saved 34 of the 36 shots he faced in his one start for the Ducks last year. 

Pending UFAs: Ryan Getzlaf, Carter Rowney, Anthony Stolarz, Jani Hakanpaa.

Pending RFAs: Danton Heinen, Max Jones, Sam Steel, Christian Djoos, Isac Lundestrom.

Projected Lineup

Jakob Silfverberg – Adam Henrique – Rickard Rakell

Sonny Milano – Ryan Getzlaf – Danton Heinen

Max Comtois – Sam Steel – Troy Terry

Nicolas Deslauriers – Derek Grant – Carter Rowney

Extras: Max Jones, David Backes, Isac Lundestrom

Hampus Lindholm – Josh Manson

Cam Fowler – Kevin Shattenkirk 

Jacob Larsson – Christian Djoos

Extras: Kodie Curran, Brendan Guhle, Josh Mahura

Josh Gibson

Anthony Stolarz

Projection

Despite Vegas, Colorado and St. Louis all in the same division in the Ducks, the path to the postseason for Anaheim is easier than you would think considering that four teams from each division are expected to be making the postseason. The Ducks would have to beat out the Sharks, Wild and Coyotes to be in the postseason, which isn\’t too bad. However, in another rebuilding year, the Ducks will fall short and finish 7th in this revamped Pacific Division. 

 

       The Seattle Mariners have acquired RHP Rafael Montero from the Texas Rangers in exchange for RHP Jose Corniell and a player to be named later. 

       Since hiring Chris Young to be their new General Manager, the Rangers have been hyperactive, although it is unclear how much of that is Young, and how much of it is Jon Daniels, the former GM who is still the team president. First, ace Lance Lynn was dealt to the White Sox, and then the Rangers brought in Nate Lowe in a six player deal with Tampa Bay. This is the smallest deal of the three, although Montero was the Rangers\’ primary closer for most of 2020 after Jose LeClerc went down with a shoulder strain. The hard-throwing righty returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019, and had the best year of his career after finally becoming a full-time reliever. Then, Montero had a 2.48 ERA and a 10.6 K/9. His numbers over two seasons in Texas are not bad, although he only pitched in 39 games for the Rangers. I need a full season in the bullpen out of Montero before I\’m convinced that he can be a legitimate late inning reliever, even for a bad team. The Mariners are that bad team, and in 2020 they had an atrocious bullpen. Of the 10 relievers to pitch in at least 10 innings, Yohan Ramirez was the only guy with an ERA under 4.00. It gets even worse when Yoshi Hirano is a free agent, Taylor Williams, who led the team in saves last year, was traded, and both Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams, key members of the 2019 bullpen, are teammates with Williams in San Diego. Reinforcements are needed, and even if the Mariners do not want to compete in 2021, Montero cannot be the only addition. 

        Montero, 30, saved eight games with a 4.08 ERA, 19 strikeouts and a 1.019 WHIP in 17.2 innings for the Rangers in 2020. In his MLB career for Texas and the New York Mets, Montero has an ERA of 4.93 with 242 strikeouts and a 1.565 WHIP in 239 innings. 

        Helping a division rival fulfill their greatest need is never the best strategy, but when you are coming off of a 22-38 record, these things don\’t matter as much. You would have to assume that the player to be named that the Rangers will receive will be more notable than Corniell, a 17 year old pitcher who the Mariners signed out of the Dominican Republic in July of 2019. He is yet to play in a minor league game. 

 

       The Texas Rangers have acquired 1B Nate Lowe, 1B Jake Guenther and a player to be named later from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for C/OF Heriberto Hernandez, OF Alexander Ovalles and IF Osleivis Basabe. 

       Lowe came up with the Rays in 2019 as an intriguing bat from the left side of the plate. He had raked in the minors, as over four seasons he had a .300 batting average and an .883 OPS. From a former 13th round pick who was 23 when he first got the call to the majors, the Rays were definitely alright with those numbers. In 71 combined major league games between 2019 and 2020, Lowe has been a slightly above average hitter, but hasn\’t stood out. But with Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz playing first, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Austin Meadows and at one point Avisail Garcia and Jose Martinez at DH, Lowe was always blocked by higher-profile players. In this trade, the Rays clear up their logjam a bit and give Lowe a place where he could potentially flourish, and they get a nice prospect back. Ranked by MLB Pipeline as Texas\’ 24th best prospect, Hernandez has played catcher, first base and right field in the minors. With the offensive production he has put up in rookie league, Hernandez looks like a first baseman, although a catching prospect with an OPS over 1.000 in 113 games is pretty nice to have. A shortstop, Basabe is actually ranked higher than Hernandez by MLB Pipeline, formerly at number 20 in the Rangers organization. He is not a power hitter, with one home run in 89 career minor league games, but he has hit for average with above average speed. His cousin, Luis Alexander Basabe, debuted for the Giants this year. Acquired by the Rangers originally as a player to be named in the 2018 Cole Hamels deal, Ovalles is very young, like the rest of the guys he is being traded with. He was hitting well in 25 rookie league games in 2019, with a 1.059 OPS, but he played almost an equal amount of games in Low-A and posted a .569 OPS. 

          Hernandez, who will turn 21 next week, hit 11 home runs with six stolen bases, a .345 average and an OPS of 1.071 in 234 Plate Appearances between rookie league and Low-A Spokane last year (keep in mind only three games were in Low-A). In his short minor league career, Hernandez has 23 home runs with 11 stolen bases, a .320 average and an OPS of 1.085 in 473 Plate Appearances.

          Basabe, 20, hit no home runs, but stole seven bases with a .323 average, and an OPS of .750 in 176 Plate Appearances for Low-A and rookie league last year. In his minor league career, Basabe has one home run with 19 stolen bases, a .334 average and an OPS of .825 in 398 Plate Appearances. 

          Ovalles, 20, hit four home runs with five stolen bases, a .293 average and an OPS of .842 in 226 Plate Appearances between Low-A and Rookie League. In his minor league career, Ovalles has four home runs with 13 stolen bases, a .299 average and an .832 OPS in 320 Plate Appearances. 

        The Rangers have many holes offensively, and one of them is first base. Ronald Guzman is only 26, and is a three year veteran, but he has not shown yet that he is a long term starting option. Like Guzman, Lowe is a lefty bat, but Lowe has hit decently in the majors and has been great at AAA. The Rangers are likely viewing Lowe\’s .749 OPS in 2020 as his floor, and that he can be a significant or at the very least minor upgrade on Guzman, depending on how he develops. While Lowe crushed breaking balls in 2020, with a .769 slugging and an absurd 96.9 average exit velocity, he showed some opposite-Pedro Cerrano splits with a .122 average and 21 strikeouts versus fastballs. A 7th round pick in 2019 out of Texas Christian University, Guenther is the oldest prospect in this trade. He had nice numbers after transitioning from college. 

        Lowe, 25, hit four home runs with a .224 average and a .749 OPS in 76 Plate Appearances for the Rays in 2020. In his MLB career, all in Tampa Bay, Lowe has 11 homers with a .251 average and an OPS of .770 in 245 Plate Appearances. 

        Guenther, 23, hit two home runs with two stolen bases, a .320 average and an OPS of .853 in 209 Plate Appearances in Rookie League in 2019. In 58 college games prior to that, he hit .345 with a 1.039 OPS. 

 

       The Chicago White Sox have acquired RHP Lance Lynn from the Texas Rangers in exchange for RHP Dane Dunning and LHP Avery Weems.

       After Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel, the White Sox have an inexperienced rotation. Dunning, who they give up in this trade, was their third best starter last year by ERA, although that was in just seven starts. Lynn is one of the more underrated pitchers of the past decade, and his ERA has reflected that. Lynn\’s strikeout renaissance over his two years in Texas led to his fifth and sixth place finish in Cy Young voting in 2019 and 2020, respectively. His cutter was great against left handed batters in 2020, with a .118 average against, a big improvement on the .295 average versus lefties from 2019. While his age might not be ideal, and he is only signed for one more year at $8 million, Lynn will create a forceful top three with Giolito and Keuchel. If it is Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez behind them, that is fine, but I would like to see them add a veteran starter in free agency, along the lines of what they did with Gio Gonzalez last year. The price for Lynn is high, but the White Sox are in a position to make a run this year, and Lynn helps them do that. 

        Lynn, 33, had a 3.32 ERA with a 1.060 WHIP and 89 strikeouts in a league high 84 innings in 2020. In his MLB career for the Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees, Lynn has a 3.57 ERA with a 1.290 WHIP and 1415 strikeouts in 1426.2 innings.

        The rebuilding Rangers saw Lynn and Mike Minor flourish and 2019, and held on to both of them instead of selling high. It didn\’t work with Minor, who had a 5.60 ERA in seven starts in 2020 before being dealt to Oakland for two prospects not ranked in the Rangers\’ top 30 by MLB Pipeline. Lynn had a good 2020 though, and the Rangers don\’t want to risk his value plummeting. They get a nice return here, in Dunning, who the White Sox originally acquired from Washington in the 2016 Adam Eaton trade, who the White Sox conveniently brought back via free agency today. Dunning has grown as a prospect since then, and had a nice first MLB season in 2020. He is now ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Rangers\’ 3rd best prospect, and the 98th best prospect in all of baseball. He should play a pivotal role in the 2021 Rangers rotation, which really besides Lynn and rookie Kyle Cody. A 6th round pick in 2019, Weems was not ranked by MLB Pipeline, but had a nice Rookie League debut. 

          Dunning, who will be 26 later this month, had a 3.97 ERA with a 1.118 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 34 innings this season. Dunning had a 2.74 ERA over three minor league seasons, with 300 strikeouts in 266 innings.

          Weems, 23, had a 2.09 ERA with a 1.044 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 60.1 innings in Rookie League in 2019. 

 

       The Los Angeles Angels have acquired RHP Raisel Iglesias and cash from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RHP Noe Ramirez and a player to be named later. 

       Right off the bat, this trade seems confusing for the Reds. Their pitching staff, the main reason why the team made the wild card round in 2020, has already been decimated. Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer is on his way out, as well as rotation mate Anthony DeSclafani. Nate Jones, Robert Stephenson and Archie Bradley, who all pitched in double digit games in 2020, will likely be gone, with Stephenson already being traded to Colorado. So, trading their closer seems like an odd move. Iglesias is on the wrong side of 30, but has been a mainstay of the bullpen since transitioning from a starter in 2016. Besides 2019, all of his seasons in the pen have ended with an ERA under 3.00, including this past year. With the Reds looking to shed salary, like many other MLB teams this offseason, Iglesias was the first big piece to go. He is owed $9.125 million in 2021, but will be a free agent afterwards. In return, they get Ramirez, who is about two weeks older than Iglesias. He struck out a lot of batters in 2018 and 2019, but while his ERA improved in 2020, his strikeout rate plummeted. He seems like a 7th inning reliever at best. Ramirez will earn $1.1 million in 2021, with two years of control afterwards. Since 2017, the year he joined the Angels, Ramirez has eliminated his former main pitch, his sinker, while throwing his fastball more to compliment his changeup and curveball. A slow pitch at 88.7 mph on average, Ramirez\’s fastball held batters to .071 average in 2020, and was thrown 36 percent of the time. 

         Ramirez, who will be 31 on December 22nd, had a 3.00 ERA with a 1.143 WHIP and 14 strikeouts and 21 innings for the Angels in 2020. In his MLB career for Los Angeles and the Boston Red Sox, Ramirez has a 4.18 ERA with a 1.248 WHIP and 230 strikeouts in 211 innings.

         New General Manager Perry Minasian makes a really good first trade here. While the relevancy of the player to be named is yet to be revealed, Iglesias is a nice addition to the Angels\’ bullpen. The closing role was mostly occupied by Ty Buttrey in 2020, who struggled. Mike Mayers, Felix Pena and Matt Andriese all had multiple saves as well. Acquiring Iglesias gives them a concrete closer for 2021, and there are still some good bullpen options on the open market. Iglesias throws a hard fastball, averaging 96 miles an hour in 2020, and held batters to a career best .195 xBA with a 2.50 xERA.

          Iglesias, who will be 31 on January 4th, had a 2.74 ERA with a 0.913 WHIP, eight saves and 31 strikeouts in 23 innings for the Reds in 2020. In his MLB career, all in Cincinnati, Iglesias has a 3.15 ERA with a 1.122 WHIP, 106 saves and 479 strikeouts in 411.2 innings.