CarterHud

       The Texas Rangers might have had the best offseason out of any team this past year. They upgraded their rotation, sharpened their lineup, and even though an all-star from last year departed, the Rangers are serious playoff contenders, if their bullpen can hold up. Playing against good teams like the Astros, A\’s and Dodgers will hurt, but Texas is in the best position they\’ve been in since 2016.

       Offseason additions: RHP Corey Kluber, RHP Kyle Gibson, C Robinson Chirinos, 3B Todd Frazier, RHP Jordan Lyles, LHP Joely Rodriguez, RHP Luis Garcia, RHP Derek Law, RHP Juan Nicasio, OF Rob Refsnyder, OF Adolis Garcia, 1B Greg Bird.

       Offseason subtractions: OF Hunter Pence, OF Nomar Mazara, OF Delino Deshields Jr., IF Logan Forsythe, RHP Shelby Miller, RHP Emmanuel Clase, LHP Jeffrey Springs, RHP Adrian Sampson.

       Rotation

The rotation is now the Rangers strength, as the team made one big trade and two free agent signings, after the squad only had two usable starters last year. Mike Minor led the league in pitching bWAR, at 7.7. After a mediocre first season in Texas, Minor had a 3.59 ERA with 200 strikeouts in 208.1 innings, and made his first all-star team. Minor has a fastball with a 2650 rpm spin rate, and his change-up had an average exit velocity against of 83.1 mph. Minor finished 8th in Cy Young voting, three spots behind teammate Lance Lynn. Like Minor, Lynn pitched in 208.1 innings, but Lynn struck out more batters, with 246 Ks. Lynn had a 3.67 ERA and a 1.219 WHIP, and his fastball had a whiff rate of 30.7%. Two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber comes over from Cleveland after fracturing his forearm seven starts into the season, and never returned. Kluber struck out 38 batters in 35.2 innings. In 2018, Kluber finished 3rd in Cy Young voting, with a 2.89 ERA and 222 strikeouts in a league leading 215 innings. Kluber had a 0.991 WHIP. Former first rounder Kyle Gibson had a very good 2018 season with Minnesota, but could not consistently perform in 2019, especially in the final two months. Gibson struck out 160 batters in 160 innings, with a 4.84 ERA. Gibson walks too many batters, with an 8.5 BB% over the last five batters. Jordan Lyles struggled with Pittsburgh last year, with a 5.36 ERA in 17 starts, before being traded to Milwaukee. With the Brewers, Lyles found a groove, striking out 56 in 58.2 innings, plus a 2.45 ERA. Combined, Lyles had a 4.15 ERA with a 9.3 K/9, which is good for a 5th starter.

        Bullpen

Jose Leclerc was elite in 2018, with a 1.56 ERA. He had an awful start, with an 8.44 ERA 13 appearances in, costing him the closer job. Leclerc slowly lowered that as the year went on, finishing with a 4.33 ERA, and his first 100 strikeout season. Leclerc had 14 saves in 68.2 innings, with a .159 xBA in his career. He has a high-90s fastball with a 2655 rpm spin rate. Nick Goody was a good pitcher for Cleveland last year, finishing with a 3.54 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 40.2 innings. Goody only allowed 30 hits, and his slider had a 45% whiff rate. Jesse Chavez, a former starter that will be 37 years old by the end of the year, was very effective in \’18 before a weak 2019. Chavez had a 4.85 ERA with 72 strikeouts in 78 innings, a year after a 2.55 ERA in 95.1 IP. Chavez\’s 88.1 mph average exit velocity was his best over the last five seasons. Joely Rodriguez returns to the majors after a successful stint in Japan. Rodriguez, who pitched for the Phillies from 2016-17, had a 1.64 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 60.1 innings. Rodriguez also had a 0.928 WHIP. Jonathan Hernandez, ranked as the club\’s 25th best prospect, debuted last year with a 4.32 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. Hernandez nearly walked more batters (13) than hits allowed (14). Luke Farrell bounced from the Royals to the Reds to the Cubs in 2017 and 2018 before joining the Rangers four days into 2019. Farrell had a decent stint, with 12 strikeouts in 13.1 innings and a 2.70 ERA. Farrell\’s fastball had an average against of .136, and his slider was better, at .111. Lefty Brett Martin debuted in 2019, and pitched in 51 games. Martin struck out 61 batters in 61.2 innings, with a 4.76 ERA. Martin\’s best pitch is a slider thrown 34 percent of the time. Former Mets starter Rafael Montero returned from Tommy John surgery, and was a very good reliever, with a 2.48 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 29 innings, allowing 23 hits. Montero\’s average exit velocity was up exactly two miles per hour from 2017. Taylor Hearn can make the roster, although his MLB debut was not good, with four earned runs in 0.1 innings. Hearn has a 3.51 ERA with 395 strikeouts in 338 innings over his minor league career. Chris Martin, the best reliever for the Rangers last year, was traded at the deadline for Kolby Allard. The 14th overall pick in 2015, Allard had a 4.96 ERA in nine starts, with 33 strikeouts in 45.1 innings. Allard had a barrel percentage against of just 2.6%. Derek Law was a set-up man for the Blue Jays last year, and he can make the team as a non-roster invitee. Law had a 4.90 ERA with five saves and 67 strikeouts in 60.2 innings.

        Catchers

The Rangers brought back Robinson Chirinos, who was with the team from 2013 to 2018. Chirinos hit 17 home runs for Houston last year, with a .238 average and a .790 OPS. While he may not be the greatest defender, he is a big upgrade offensively over Jeff Mathis, who is still with the club as a back-up. Mathis has played in the league since 2005, and his a career average of .195 with an OPS of .433. Somehow, Mathis had his worst season in 2019. He hit under .200 for the 7th season, with a .158 average and a .433 OPS. Now 37 years old, Mathis has seen his pop-time get worse over the years, and it was at 2.13 seconds last year. The Rangers could carry a third catcher, and that would be Jose Trevino. Trevino is younger and could be a better hitter than Mathis, but he is still not a good hitter. Trevino hit .258 with an OPS of .655 in 51 MLB games last year.

        Infielders

The Rangers signed Todd Frazier, a veteran third baseman who will likely start out the season at first base to make room for younger players at third. Frazier, who spent the last two seasons with the Mets, hit 21 home runs with a .251 average and a .772 OPS. His OPS was actually higher than his OPS in 2016, when Frazier hit 40 home runs. Frazier hit .300 against fastballs, but was just 4-for-45 in at-bats ending versus off-speed pitches. Backing up Frazier is Ronald Guzman, a six-foot-five Dominican who is a good defender at first, with four defensive runs saved last year. Guzman hit 10 home runs with a .723 OPS. Guzman strikes out too much, with a K% of 28.8% in his two year career. Another player who strikes out too much is Rougned Odor, who led the league with 178 Ks last year. Odor hit 30 home runs, with 11 stolen bases, but a .205 average and .721 OPS. Odor had a 13.6 barrel percentage, and he is a decent defender, with four outs above average. Elvis Andrus is back for his 12th year in Texas. Andrus stole 31 bases last year, his most since 2013. Andrus also hit 12 home runs with a .275 average. Andrus had six outs above average at short last year. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has catching experience and he can start at third base. Kiner-Falefa had a .620 OPS last year, and he hit four home runs with a 1.167 OPS in Spring Training. Nick Solak was acquired from Tampa Bay midseason and made his MLB debut. In 33 games, Solak hit five home runs with a .293 average and an .884 OPS. Ranked as the team\’s fifth best prospect, Solak had an 11.1 BB%.

        Outfielders

While Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Nelson Cruz and Pete Alonso are all great, Joey Gallo might be the best pure power hitter in baseball. Gallo hit at least 40 home runs in both 2017 and 2018, and while he only played in 70 games last year, he slugged out 22. Gallo had a career high .253 average and a .986 OPS. While his K rate of 38.4% was terrible, Gallo had an average exit velocity of 94.7 mph. Danny Santana was a huge surprise last year, as the utility player appeared in 130 games after playing in just 15 in 2018. Santana hit 28 home runs with 21 stolen bases, plus a .283 average and an OPS of .857. Santana had -3 outs above average combined at seven different positions, plus one out above average at each outfield spot. Willie Calhoun might not be healthy for Opening Day, but he should be back soon. Calhoun, the big return of the Yu Darvish trade in 2017, had a breakout season in 2019, hitting 21 homers with an OPS of .848. The 4th outfielder will be Scott Heineman, who debuted last year. Heineman played in 25 games, hitting two home runs with a .213 average and a .679 OPS. Shin-Soo Choo is a primary DH, but even at age 38, he can be a lead-off hitter. Choo hit 24 home runs with 15 stolen bases, plus an .826 OPS. Choo had an average exit velocity of 91.9 mph.

        Projected Lineup

DH Shin-Soo Choo

SS Elvis Andrus (R)

CF Danny Santana (S)

RF Joey Gallo (L)

1B Todd Frazier (R)

2B Rougned Odor (L)

LF Willie Calhoun (L)

C Robinson Chirinos (R)

3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)

         Projected Rotation

Mike Minor (L)

Lance Lynn (R)

Corey Kluber (R)

Kyle Gibson (R)

Jordan Lyles (R)

         Projected Bullpen

Jose Leclerc (R)

Nick Goody (R)

Joely Rodriguez (L)

Jesse Chavez (R)

Luke Farrell (R)

Rafael Montero (R)

Brett Martin (L)

Taylor Hearn (L)

Derek Law (R)

Kolby Allard (L)

Jonathan Hernandez (R)

            Projected Bench

C Jeff Mathis (R)

C Jose Trevino (R)

1B Ronald Guzman (L)

IF Nick Solak (R)

OF Scott Heineman (R)

Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats

34-68 record, 5th in AL West

Most home runs: Joey Gallo (28)

Highest batting average: Elvis Andrus (.299)

Highest OPS: Joey Gallo (.851)

Best ERA, starters: Lance Lynn (4.36)

Best ERA, relievers: Rafael Montero (3.75)

Most innings pitched: Corey Kluber (122.1)

Most strikeouts: Lance Lynn (103)

Best K/9: Jordan Lyles (10.9)

Record through 60 games, last five seasons

2019: 32-28

2018: 24-36

2017: 28-32

2016: 37-23

2015: 31-29

         Prediction

The Rangers have a really good rotation. It is easily top-5 in the league. Their lineup isn\’t special, but it is good enough. The main thing keeping them from the playoffs is their bullpen, but if they improve on that in this coming offseason, then the Rangers will be a playoff team. Until then, they will be on the outside looking in. I predict a third place finish for the Rangers, and no playoff berth.

       The Rays have earned themselves a reputation around baseball thanks to their typical offseason. They acquire low-budget players, the players have a good year, the team is surprisingly good, and then they spend the next offseason trading the surprise players in deals that don\’t look too good on the surface. While the past year has seen that, the Rays come into 2020 stronger than ever, and actually favorites for the first time in a long time.

        Offseason additions: 1B/OF Jose Martinez, OF Hunter Renfroe, OF Manuel Margot, OF Yoshi Tsutsugo, LHP Aaron Loup, OF Randy Arozarena, C Kevan Smith, RHP Dylan Covey.

        Offseason subtractions: OF Tommy Pham, RHP Emilio Pagan, OF Avisail Garcia, C Travis d\’Arnaud, RHP Austin Pruitt, 1B Jesus Aguilar, OF Guillermo Heredia, IF Eric Sogard, IF Matt Duffy.

        Rotation

After a Cy Young season that looked impossible to repeat, Blake Snell proved that his Cy Young 2018 season might have been impossible to repeat. Snell had elbow surgery, limiting him to 23 starts, and while he had a career high 12.4 K/9 (147 strikeouts in 107 innings), Snell had a 4.29 ERA. Snell\’s curveball had an improved whiff rate of 53.9%. While Snell was struggling, Charlie Morton had the best season of his career at age 35. Morton made his second all-star game, finishing with a 3.05 ERA and 240 strikeouts in 194.2 innings. Morton had a league best 0.7 HR/9 with a 1.084 WHIP. Morton\’s curveball had a .149 average against, and a 2886 rpm. Tyler Glasnow was in the midst of a breakout season when he went on the IL with forearm tightness in early May. He returned for September, and allowed two runs in 12.1 innings. Altogether, Glasnow had a 1.78 ERA with 76 strikeouts and a 0.890 WHIP in 60.2 innings. Glasnow\’s pitch with the highest average against was his curveball, at .191. Yonny Chirinos earned his way out of having an opener and got to start some games. In 26 games (18 starts), Chirinos had a 3.85 ERA with 114 strikeouts in 133.1 innings, and a 7.6 H/9. Chirinos walked just 5.3% of batters. Like Chirinos, Ryan Yarbrough has had someone open for him a lot. Yarbrough struck out 117 batters in 141.2 innings, with a 4.13 ERA. Yarbrough allowed an average exit velocity of 84.9 mph. After being acquired from Miami, Trevor Richards pitched in seven games, with a 1.93 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. He had a 4.50 ERA in 112 innings for the Marlins. He could win out the 5th starter job, or go in the bullpen after openers.

        Bullpen

While Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado closed out games for the Rays last year, Nick Anderson is the player that will likely take over from Emilio Pagan, who was traded to San Diego. As a 28 year old rookie, Anderson came over from Miami in the same deal as Richards. He struck out 41 batters in 21.1 innings with a 2.11 ERA last year for Tampa Bay. Combined with his Marlins stats, Anderson had 110 strikeouts in 65 innings, for a 15.2 K/9. Anderson\’s curveball had a 52% whiff rate. Castillo, who had eight saves last year, struck out 81 batters in 68.2 innings, with a 3.41 ERA. Castillo throws a sinker with an average velocity over 98 miles per hour, and with excessive movement. Alvarado was hampered by injuries, pitching just 30 innings. Alvarado had 39 strikeouts and a 4.80 ERA. Alvarado\’s issue was that he lost his control, with an 18.5 BB%, 7.5% higher than his already high 2018 number. Journeyman Chaz Roe has found a home in Tampa Bay. He pitched in 71 games last year, 10 more than he did for the Rays in 2018, and he only got two more outs. Roe had a 4.06 ERA with 65 strikeouts for an 11.5 K/9. Roe has a career H/9 of 7.7, and a slider with a 2953 rpm spin rate. Lefty Colin Poche, who the Rays acquired in 2018 from Arizona in the Steven Souza Jr. three team deal, had 72 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. Poche had two saves, and allowed only 33 hits, for a 5.7 H/9. Poche had an xBA against of just .170. Oliver Drake pitched for five teams in 2018, but only one last year. Drake had a 3.21 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 56 innings. Drake is one of seven Rays with a K/9 over 11.0 last year. After being added to the 40-man roster, Aaron Loup is expected to make the team. Loup has appeared in at least 55 games in five different seasons, mainly for Toronto, although he only pitched in 3.1 innings last year. Loup has a career ERA of 3.45, with an 8.4 K/9. Don\’t be surprised if Loup throws to lefties more than 66% of the time. Andrew Kittredge allowed an average exit velocity of 86.9 mph last year, and allowed groundballs exactly half of the time. Kittredge had a 4.17 ERA with 58 strikeouts in 49.2 innings. Peter Fairbanks could make the team. Fairbanks debuted for the Rangers last year before being traded midseason to Tampa Bay. Combined, he struck out 28 in 21 innings with a 6.86 ERA. Jalen Beeks has starting experience and he can be a bulk guy. Beeks had a 4.31 ERA with 89 strikeouts in 104.1 innings last year.

       Catchers

The 3rd overall pick in 2012, Mike Zunino\’s first year in Tampa Bay was a disaster. He hit nine home runs, his lowest since 2013, and had a .165 average with a .544 OPS. Zunino is an above average defender. The big catching question with the Rays is about Zunino\’s backup, after Travis d\’Arnaud departed. Michael Perez, and Kevan Smith are in a battle, although Perez has the advantage, and Smith can go on the three-man taxi squad. Perez, one of the few left handed hitting catchers, has played in 46 games over the last two seasons for Tampa Bay. He hit 13 home runs with an .833 OPS at AAA, and a .672 OPS at the major league level.

       Infielders

Ji-Man Choi became a fan favorite in Tampa Bay, as the 250 pound first baseman hit 19 home runs with a .261 average and an OPS of .822. He has the first base job, although Jose Martinez could see a lot of time there. While he will likely start on the bench, Martinez can play the corner outfield, and has a career average of .298 with an .821 OPS. He has a hard hit percentage of 41.1% in his career. Brandon Lowe made the all-star team, although a leg injury cost him the chance to play in the game and in most of the second half. Lowe hit 17 home runs in 82 games with five stolen bases, plus an .850 OPS, finishing 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting. Lowe isn\’t a great fielder, with -4 outs above average at second base. Willy Adames, who was acquired back in 2014 as an 18 year old in the David Price trade, hit 20 home runs, but only had a .317 OBP, causing his OPS to be low at .735. Adames only stole four bases, but at 28.3 ft/s, he has a good sprint speed. Yandy Diaz hits the ball hard, with an average exit velocity of 91.7 mph, both in 2019 and his career. He played in only 79 games, but hit 14 home runs, with a .267 average and an OPS of .816. Diaz\’s exit velocity against fastballs was 93.4 mph. Joey Wendle can play every infield position, besides first. After a good rookie season with a .300 average, Wendle hit just .231 with an OPS of .633, plus three home runs and eight stolen bases. Wendle has decent speed, with a 28.6 ft/s sprint speed. Daniel Robertson, a 1st rounder in 2012, has been a utility infielder for the Rays over the last three years. Robertson was good in 2018, with a .262 average and a .797 OPS, but he struggled in 2019. Robertson finished with a .213 average, plus a .607 OPS. The Rays might not keep Robertson, as he can be a right handed Wendle.

       Outfielders

Austin Meadows might not be healthy, returning from COVID, and he will likely DH to start out the year. Meadows was great in 2019, hitting 33 home runs, 12 stolen bases, a .291 average and an OPS of .922. Meadows was an all-star, but he isn\’t a great defender, with -2 outs above average last year. The Rays traded Tommy Pham to San Diego for Hunter Renfroe, a trade that wasn\’t very well received. Renfroe hit a career high 33 home runs last year, but had a .216 average with 154 strikeouts. Renfroe is a good defender, with six outs above average. Kevin Kiermaier won his third Gold Glove, and hit 14 home runs with 19 stolen bases, but he isn\’t a great hitter. Kiermaier has a career OPS of .723. Kiermaier had a 29.4 ft/s sprint speed, and 17 outs above average. Yoshi Tsutsugo comes over from Japan, where he hit 29 home runs with an .899 OPS last year, although his numbers were worse than his previous two season. Tsutsugo can back-up Diaz at third, and play right field. Renfroe\’s ex-teammate, Manuel Margot, joins him in Tampa Bay, being acquired for Pagan. Margot is similar to Kiermaier, a player with good speed and gold glove potential. Margot hit 12 home runs with 20 stolen bases, plus a .691 OPS for San Diego. Margot had 10 outs above average. He is entering his 4th full season, and he is still only 25.

       Projected Lineup

DH Austin Meadows (L)

2B Brandon Lowe (L)

3B Yandy Diaz (R)

LF Hunter Renfroe (R)

RF Yoshi Tsutsugo (L)

1B Ji-Man Choi (L)

SS Willy Adames (R)

CF Kevin Kiermaier (L)

C Mike Zunino (R)

       Projected Rotation

Blake Snell (L)

Charlie Morton (R)

Tyler Glasnow (R)

Yonny Chirinos (R)

Ryan Yarbrough (L)

       Projected Bullpen

Nick Anderson, closer (R)

Diego Castillo (R)

Jose Alvarado (L)

Chaz Roe (R)

Colin Poche (L)

Oliver Drake (R)

Trevor Richards (R)

Jalen Beeks (L)

Andrew Kittredge (R)

Aaron Loup (L)

Peter Fairbanks (R)

       Projected Bench

C Michael Perez (L)

1B/OF Jose Martinez (R)

IF Joey Wendle (L)

IF Daniel Robertson (R)

OF Manuel Margot (R)

Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats:

51-50 record, 2nd in AL East

Most home runs: Hunter Renfroe (21)

Highest batting average: Yandy Diaz (.327)

Highest OPS: Yandy Diaz (.851)

Best ERA, starters: Blake Snell (3.36)

Best ERA, relievers: Jose Alvarado (0.88)

Most innings pitched: Charlie Morton (122.1)

Most strikeouts: Blake Snell (147)

Best K/9: Nick Anderson (15.3)

Record through 60 games, last five seasons:

2019: 37-23

2018: 28-32

2017: 29-31

2016: 28-32

2015: 32-28

        Prediction

The Rays aren\’t underrated anymore. Sure, they have some underrated players, but the baseball world has accepted the Rays as a very good team. Their bullpen might be top-3 in the league, they have three really good starters and their lineup is good. The Rays will make the playoffs in 2020, as a Wild Card team, finishing 2nd in the AL East behind the Yankees.

       The Cardinals had a big offseason entering 2019, and acquired themselves a six-time all-star, and they still weren\’t the favorites to win the NL Central. Now, the Cardinals have some separation in the division after an NLCS visit, but it is still a long way from the end of the season, and the Cards could easily regress.

       Offseason additions: IF Brad Miller, OF Austin Dean, LHP Kwang-hyun Kim

       Offseason subtractions: OF Marcell Ozuna, OF Jose Martinez, RHP Michael Wacha, IF Yairo Munoz, RHP Dominic Leone, OF Randy Arozarena, LHP Chase Shreve.

       Rotation

The best part of the season last year for the Cardinals might have been Jack Flaherty\’s transformation into a bona fide ace. Flaherty had a 4.17 ERA entering the final two months of the season, but he had a 0.71 ERA in August, and a 0.82 ERA in September to lower his final ERA to 2.75 on the year, finishing 4th in Cy Young voting. Flaherty led the league with a 0.968 WHIP and a 6.2 H/9, and he had 231 Ks in 196 innings. Flaherty\’s slider had a .153 xBA against, plus a whiff rate of 46.1%. After signing a four year, $68 million extension, Miles Mikolas regressed, as he allowed seven more hits than he did in 2018, but pitched in 16.2 less innings. Mikolas went from leading the NL in wins with 18 in 2018 to leading the league in losses with 14 in 2019. His ERA also dropped off from 2.83 to 4.16. Mikolas struck out 144 batters in 184 innings pitched. Mikolas has a career BB% of just 3.9 percent. Dakota Hudson had a very good rookie season, finishing 5th in NL Rookie of the Year voting, with a 3.35 ERA and 136 strikeouts in 174.2 innings. Hudson does have a walk issue, allowing a league-high 86 base on balls in 2019. Adam Wainwright is back for his 15th season as a Cardinal. Wainwright\’s 2019 might have been his best season since he was a Cy Young finalist in 2014. Wainwright, who will turn 39 during the season, had a 4.19 ERA with 153 strikeouts in 171.2 innings, although his 1.2 HR/9 was the highest of his career. Wainwright\’s infamous curveball is still potent, and while it had an improved 2749 rpm spin rate, it got less swing-and-misses (percentage, not total number) and had a worse average than it did in Wainwright\’s eight starts in 2018. The Cardinals could move Carlos Martinez back to starter, without a definitive 5th starter, but he is needed at closer after Jordan Hicks opted out. However, they signed Japanese veteran Kwang-Hyun Kim to a two-year deal, and Kim will likely win out the job. Kim, who will be 32 by Opening Day, had a 2.51 ERA with 180 strikeouts in 190.1 innings for the SK Wyverns, his KBO team since he was 18.

       Bullpen

The pen was St. Louis\’ strong point in 2019, although after Jordan Hicks opted-out and John Brebbia had Tommy John surgery, it has been weakened. Martinez is the best option to close, and he did so while Hicks was out for a good portion of 2019. Last year was the first year in that Martinez did not start in a game in his seven year MLB career. Martinez had a 3.17 ERA, and struck out 53 batters in 48.1 innings, and made 24 saves. Martinez\’s fastball was up to an average of 96.6 mph, his highest since 2016. Giovanny Gallegos made the Luke Voit trade not as bad last year, becoming a set-up man with a 2.31 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 74 innings. Gallegos also had a 0.811 WHIP, and while he may not be ready for Opening Day after COVID-related concerns, Gallegos will be welcomed, especially after a season with a .187 xBA against. Andrew Miller has closing experience with the Yankees and saved six games last year, so he could be an option to close if Martinez starts. Miller\’s 1st season with the Cardinals was his worst since 2011. He had an ERA of 4.45 with 70 strikeouts, and he also allowed a career high 11 home runs. It was the first time in his career where Miller was often used as a one-out reliever, pitching in 54.2 innings despite appearing in 73 games. Miller had an xSLG of .288 over the past five years. The Cardinals moved John Gant to the bullpen full-time, and he had another successful season, with a 3.66 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 66.1 innings. Gant\’s 6.9 H/9 and 8.1 K/9 were both improvements on his previous two seasons in St. Louis. He had a barrel allowed percentage of just 2.9%. Tyler Webb continued his strong end to 2018 with a nice 2019, pitching in a career high 55 innings, with a 3.76 ERA and 48 strikeouts. Webb allowed an average exit velocity of just 86.6 mph. Ryan Helsley, a 26 year old with a fastball averaging nearly 98 miles per hour, debuted in 2019, with a 2.95 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 36.2 innings. Helsley\’s fastball had a 2509 rpm spin rate last year. Daniel Ponce de Leon has started games for the Cardinals over the last two seasons, but he will come out of the bullpen in 2020. Ponce de Leon had a 3.70 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 48.2 innings in 13 games (eight starts). Batters were 1-for-17 in at-bats ending with Ponce de Leon\’s curveball. Lefty Brett Cecil missed all of 2019 with a wrist injury. While Cecil was productive from 2013 to 2017, his 2018 was his worst year, finishing with a 6.89 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 32.2 innings. Even then Cecil\’s fastball velocity was under 90 miles per hour, and it is even more concerning now. Another lefty who did not pitch in the majors last year is Austin Gomber. In 29 games (11 starts) in 2018, Gomber had a 4.44 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 75 innings. In the minors last year, Gomber was limited to just 11 starts due to injury, but he did strike out 52 batters in 45.1 innings. Junior Fernandez is ranked as the club\’s 10th best prospect. Fernandez debuted last year, with 16 strikeouts in 11.2 innings, allowing seven earned runs. Fernandez had 80 strikeouts with a 1.52 ERA in 65 innings in the minor leagues last season. Genesis Cabrera and Alex Reyes are both unlikely to be healthy for Opening Day, but should return soon. Cabrera, who is just ahead of Fernandez as MLB Pipeline\’s 9th best Cardinal prospect, throws a high-90s fastball and made his debut last year, even after a disappointing AAA season. Reyes was once a top prospect in the major leagues, but multiple injuries have led to Reyes pitching in seven major league innings over the past three years. Reyes was awful in his short AAA stint last year before getting hurt again, with a 7.39 ERA in 28 innings. Almost 26 years old, time is running out for Reyes to be the elite pitcher he was projected to be.

       Catchers

Yadier Molina is still a big part of the Cardinals team. While he has only hit 20 home runs twice and has a career .738 OPS, Molina is a nine-time all-star, because he has won nine Gold Gloves. Entering his 17th MLB season, the future for Yadi is uncertain, as he is a free agent after the season, but the Cardinals will bring him back if he wants to play, and the catcher who has never played in under 110 games (not counting 2004, when he wasn\’t called up until June) will want to play. Molina hit .270 with 10 home runs last year, and even stole six bases. Molina struck out just 12.8% of the time. Prospect Andrew Knizer will likely take over the backup job eventually, but for now, Matt Wieters still has it locked down. In his first year with the Cardinals, the four time all-star hit 11 home runs in 67 games.

       Infielders

Paul Goldschmidt\’s first season with the Cardinals can be seen as a disappointment. Goldschmidt did hit 34 home runs, but for the first time since 2012 he was not an all-star. Goldschmidt\’s 78 walks were his lowest since his 109 game 2014, and he saw a 30 point drop-off in batting average, down to .260, and his OPS of .821 was a 101 point difference from his 2018 mark. It isn\’t too concerning yet, and Goldschmidt is still a really good defensive first baseman, with five outs above average. Kolten Wong finally showed what the Cardinals were looking for over the past five years. Wong hit 11 home runs with 24 stolen bases, plus a .285 average and a .784 OPS. Wong repeated his 11 outs above average from 2018, and won his first Gold Glove. Wong doesn\’t hit the ball hard, with an average exit velocity of 86.2 mph last year. Paul DeJong hit 30 home runs, and most people did not notice. That could be due to the fact that DeJong didn\’t have any other stats that really stood out, with a .318 OBP, and a .762 OPS. Like Goldschmidt and Wong, DeJong is a great defender, with 13 outs above average, a major improvement from his -5 in 2018. Matt Carpenter has showed his flexibility over the years, moving from second base to third base, to first base and then back to third. Carpenter regressed offensively after a 36 home run 2018, finishing with only 15, plus a .226 average and an OPS of .726. Carpenter\’s six stolen bases last year was a career high. Carpenter has always walked a lot, with a 14.4 BB% over the past five years. Although he is a good fielder like the other Cardinals infielders, Carpenter could see time at DH with utility infielder Tommy Edman needing a spot in the lineup. Edman had a very successful rookie season, with 11 home runs, 15 stolen bases, a .304 average and an .850 OPS in 92 games. Edman had five outs above average combined, mostly between second and third base, plus right field. Edman had a great sprint speed of 29.4 ft/s. Veteran infielder Brad Miller hit 13 home runs with an .894 OPS for the Indians and Phillies last year, and he can play all four infield positions, and probably the outfield if the Cardinals need him to. Miller had an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph last year. The final spot is between Rangel Ravelo and Edmundo Sosa. Ravelo could replace Jose Martinez as the power hitting pinch hitter. Ravelo, who can also play first base, hit two home runs in 29 games last year. Ravelo hit 12 home runs with a .299 average and an .856 OPS in AAA. For two weeks, he could be more valuable than Sosa, an infielder who has played in the MLB in the last two years, but has made just 10 at-bats. Sosa hit 17 home runs with an .801 OPS for AAA Memphis.

       Outfielders

After an awful 2018, with a .180 average in 90 games, Dexter Fowler rebounded, hitting a career high 19 home runs, with eight stolen bases, his most in his three years in St. Louis. Fowler had a .754 OPS, and -1 DRS, an improvement from the last two seasons. Harrison Bader is a good defender, with 14 defensive runs saved in center field last year. At the plate, Bader was below average, with an OPS of .680. He hit 12 home runs with 11 stolen bases. Tyler O\’Neill has great AAA numbers, but he has never been a great MLB player. In 60 games last year, O\’Neill hit five home runs with a .262 average and an OPS of .723. He is fighting with Lane Thomas for the starting left field job, and O\’Neill could also see time at third base. Thomas debuted in 2019, and was a pleasant surprise, playing all three outfield positions, and hitting .316 with an OPS of 1.093. Thomas is younger than O\’Neill by almost exactly two months. The Cardinals acquired Austin Dean from Miami during the offseason. Dean hit six home runs with a .665 OPS. Dean has been great at the AAA level, hitting 18 home runs with a .337 average and a 1.036 OPS in 73 games for New Orleans last year.

       Projected Opening Day Lineup

2B Kolten Wong (L)

SS Paul DeJong (R)

1B Paul Goldschmidt (R)

DH Matt Carpenter (L)

RF Dexter Fowler (S)

C Yadier Molina (R)

LF Lane Thomas (R)

3B Tommy Edman (R)

CF Harrison Bader (R)

       Projected Rotation

Jack Flaherty (R)

Miles Mikolas (R)

Dakota Hudson (R)

Adam Wainwright (R)

Kwang-Hyun Kim (L)

       Projected Bullpen

Carlos Martinez (R)

Giovanny Gallegos (R)

Andrew Miller (L)

John Gant (R)

Tyler Webb (L)

Ryan Helsley (R)

Daniel Ponce de Leon (R)

Austin Gomber (L)

Brett Cecil (L)

Junior Fernandez (R)

Genesis Cabrera (L)

       Projected Bench

C Matt Wieters (S)

IF Brad Miller (L)

1B Rangel Ravelo (R)

OF Tyler O\’Neill (R)

OF Austin Dean (R)

Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats

60-41 record, 1st in NL Central

Most home runs: Paul DeJong (21)

Highest batting average: Tommy Edman (.317)

Highest OPS: Paul DeJong (.854)

Best ERA, starters: Jack Flaherty (2.70)

Best ERA, relievers: Ryan Helsley (2.89)

Most innings pitched: Jack Flaherty (130.0)

Most strikeouts: Jack Flaherty (170)

Best K/9: Jack Flaherty (11.8)

Record through 60 games, last five seasons:

2019: 31-29

2018: 33-27

2017: 28-32

2016: 32-28

2015: 39-21

       Prediction

The Cardinals\’ bullpen is what got them to the playoffs last year, with Jack Flaherty in the rotation being an automatic win for the final two months. The defense helped them as well, but the lineup and the end of the rotation is what lost them games. The rotation, now with Kim, is more complete after Michael Wacha brought it down. The lineup isn\’t much better, but it is serviceable, and almost everyone can be a starter or at least a bench player on every team. The Cardinals will dominate a weakened NL Central, but fall in the NLDS to the Dodgers.

From Getty Images

       After many years of falling short of ending their playoff drought, the Seattle Mariners decided to blow up again after 2018. James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, Mike Zunino, Jean Segura, and Alex Colome were all traded, while Nelson Cruz walked. Some of those trades, specifically the Diaz and Cano deal, seem to have worked out so far, but it has left the Mariners as a bottom-five team in baseball. After a surprisingly quiet offseason from General Manager Jerry Dipoto, known to make many deals, the Mariners enter 2020 in a similar spot as in 2019, looking to hand off roster spots to the future. 

       Offseason additions: RHP Yoshihisa Hirano, RHP Kendall Graveman, RHP Taijuan Walker, RHP Taylor Williams, LHP Nestor Cortes Jr., IF Sam Haggerty, LHP Nick Margevicius.

       Offseason subtractions: C Omar Narvaez, OF Domingo Santana, IF Tim Beckham, RHP Felix Hernandez, IF Ryon Healy, LHP Tommy Milone, RHP Anthony Bass, RHP Connor Sadzeck, LHP Wade LeBlanc, RHP Sam Tuivailala.

       Rotation

The Mariners will be going with a six-man rotation for 2020, with only one pitcher that the Mariners can rely on. Marco Gonzales had 29 decisions last year, something that you don\’t see in baseball often anymore. Gonzales was top-10 in wins (16) and losses (13) Gonzales had a 3.99 ERA with only 147 strikeouts in 203 innings, and finishing with 210 hits allowed. In his career, Gonzales has walked just 5.7% of batters. Yusei Kikuchi was a big get for Seattle after he posted a 3.04 ERA in Japan. Kikuchi was disappointing in his first North American season, finishing with an ERA of 5.46 with 116 strikeouts in 161.2 innings, one out away from qualifying for the ERA title. The now-29-year-old got hit hard, and his fastball had a slugging against of .622. The Mariners brought back Taijuan Walker, who came all the way back from Tommy John surgery to make one start for Arizona at the end of the year, acting as an opener. In his last full season of 2017, Walker had a career year, with a 3.49 ERA and 146 strikeouts in 157.1 innings. Walker was a first round pick, drafted by the Mariners, and spent his first four major league seasons in Seattle. Another pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery is Kendall Graveman. Graveman was under contract with the Cubs last year, but never made it back to the majors. In parts of five seasons for the A\’s and Blue Jays, Graveman has a 4.38 ERA with only 286 strikeouts in 446 innings (5.8 K/9). The main return for Paxton was Justus Sheffield. Sheffield, who debuted for the Yankees in 2018 but really got a shot in 2019, struck out 37 batters in 36 innings, but that was his best stat. Sheffield had a 5.50 ERA, and spent most of the year in the minors, and even went back to AA for a stint. Justin Dunn was part of the Diaz and Cano trade, and he had a more positive debut. Dunn made four starts, although he only pitched in 6.2 innings, allowing two runs for a 2.70 ERA and five Ks. Dunn had a 3.55 ERA and a 10.8 K/9 in 25 AA starts. 

       Bullpen

After Roenis Elias was traded to Washington at the trade deadline, the new full-time closer could be Yoshihisa Hirano, although a positive COVID test likely means that he will not make Opening Day. Hirano struck out 61 batters in 53 innings for Arizona last year, but had a 4.75 ERA, regression from his 2.44 mark in \’18. The Japanese Hirano is entering his third MLB season, at age 36. He had a 39.6% whiff rate on his split finger last year, a pitch with a spin rate of 1271 rpm. After coming over from Minnesota for cash, Matt Magill had five saves in 22 games for Seattle, with 28 strikeouts and a 3.63 ERA. Magill has a career average exit velocity of 90.6 miles per hour, which is not good. He could be the best returning Mariner reliever. Austin Adams allowed just 20 hits in 31 innings, and struck out a whopping 51 batters, putting him in contention for the closer role. Adams also had a 3.77 ERA for the M\’s. Adams wields a fastball that had an average spin rate of 2601 rpm. Dan Altavilla has pitched in parts of the last four seasons for the Mariners, with a combined ERA of 3.63. Last year was his weakest year of the four, with a 5.52 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 14.2 innings. Altavilla has a career K/9 of 9.8. In his rookie season Brandon Brennan pitched in 47.1 innings, the most among returning Mariners relievers. Brennan had 47 Ks, with a 4.56 ERA. Brennan allowed just 34 hits, although he had very high 4.6 BB/9. Carl Edwards Jr., who had a 3.30 ERA in five seasons with the Cubs, comes to Seattle after an awful 2019. Combined for Chicago and San Diego, Edwards struck out 19 batters in 17 innings, but had an 8.47 ERA. Edwards allowed more walks (13) than hits (12). Left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. was a bulk pitcher (the pitcher that follows an opener) for the Yankees last year, and was doing well, with a 4.18 ERA in early August. He struggled throughout the rest of the month and September, and finished with a 5.67 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 66.2 innings. Cortes\’ downfall was his 16 home runs allowed. Another former Yankee prospect, Erik Swanson, has flexibility as he can start. In 58 innings last year, Swanson had a 5.74 ERA and 52 strikeouts. Swanson only allowed 56 hits, but 17(!) of them were home runs. Taylor Williams was productive for the Brewers in 2018, with a 4.25 ERA in 53 innings. He spent most of 2019 in the minors, as he couldn\’t keep up with the big league club, with an ERA of 9.82 in 14.2 innings. Williams was good in AAA, with a 2.83 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 54 innings, plus a 6.7 H/9. Taylor Guilbeau had a 1.054 WHIP in his debut. As a lefty, Guilbeau pitched just 12.1 innings despite appearing in 17 games, and struck out just seven batters. Guilbeau finished with a 3.65 ERA.

       Catchers

Former Rockies top catching prospect Tom Murphy was acquired from San Francisco days into the season, and appeared in a career high 75 games. Murphy hit 18 home runs, with a .273 average and an OPS of .858. Murphy is one of two returning players who had an OPS of at least .800 last year, and the other player played in just 18 games. Austin Nola, the older brother of Phillies ace Aaron Nola, played a lot of first base last year, but will be the backup catcher after Omar Narvaez was traded to Milwaukee. In 79 games, four more than Murphy, Nola hit 10 home runs, with a .269 average and a .796 OPS, a pleasant surprise for Seattle as a 29 year old rookie.

       Infielders

Like players including Jon Singleton and Scott Kingery before him, Evan White signed a multi-year contract before his first MLB game for a quicker route to the major leagues. The 17th overall pick in 2017, White made MLB Pipeline\’s all defense team at first base. White, who spent all of 2019 at AA, hit 18 home runs with a .293 average and an OPS of .838. He is ranked as Seattle\’s 4th best prospect, and the 56th best prospect in the league. Shed Long, acquired in the Sonny Gray deal between the Yankees and Reds that the Mariners had no business being in, will take over the starting second base job from Dee Gordon. Long hit five home runs with three stolen bases and a .787 OPS in 42 games, plus a .795 OPS at AAA, his first year at both levels. Other young player acquired from the previous offseason, JP Crawford took over at shortstop from Jean Segura, whom Crawford was traded for. Crawford hit seven home runs with five stolen bases and a .684 OPS. At age 25, 2020 is a big year for Crawford, who was drafted in the 1st round all the way back in 2013, and has a .222 average and a .687 OPS in a three year MLB career. Kyle Seager has been very consistent in his career, and he has only been with one team. Seager has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past eight seasons, hitting 23 in just 106 games last year, the games played being his lowest amount since 2011, his rookie season. Seager had three defensive runs saved last year, at 24 in his career. Dee Gordon, still only 32 years old, will embrace being a backup to young players like Long and Crawford, and he can be a 4th or 5th outfielder. Gordon stole 22 bases last year, his lowest 2013, a season that was only 38 games long for Gordon. Gordon, who has stolen 330 bases in his career, can be a pinch-runner, especially in extra-inning games, when runners start on second base. Gordon\’s sprint speed has decreased, down to 28.5 ft/s last year. Dylan Moore isn\’t guaranteed to make the team after appearing in 113 games last year. Moore hit nine home runs and stole 11 bases, and played all three outfield and all four infield positions. Dan Vogelbach can play first base, but will be the normal DH, and could also be traded. Vogelbach hit 30 home runs and made the all-star team, but he had a weak batting average of .208 and a .780 OPS. Vogelbach\’s OPS is only that high thanks to a 16.5 BB%.

       Outfielders

With Mitch Haniger potentially out for the season, Mallex Smith is the lone veteran of the outfield. Both have played in four MLB seasons so far. Like Gordon, Smith is very fast, with a league leading 46 stolen bases in 2019. Smith hit six home runs, two more than Gordon has ever hit in a season. Smith\’s average dropped from .296 in 2018 to .227 in 2019, a 69 point drop. Smith had a 29.4 ft/s sprint speed with 10 outs above average last year. Kyle Lewis is the only other returning player with an OPS over .800, along with Murphy. The 10th best prospect in the Mariners\’ system, the 11th overall pick in 2016 hit .268 with six home runs in 18 games last year, after a disappointing AA season. The 9th best prospect in the system, Jake Fraley, could start as the 4th outfielder, competing with Tim Lopes for the left field spot. Fraley went 6-for-40 in his MLB stint last year, and hit 19 home runs with 22 stolen bases and a .910 OPS. Like Lewis and Fraley, Tim Lopes debuted in 2019, stealing six bases in 41 games. Lopes hit .270 with a .720 OPS. Lopes can also play second base. Non-roster invitee Jose Marmolejos could make the team as a back-up first baseman and an outfielder. Marmolejos, who was in the Nationals\’ system from 2011 to 2019, hit 18 home runs with a .315 average and a .909 OPS in the minors last year, mostly in AAA.

       Projected Opening Day Lineup

CF Mallex Smith (L)

SS JP Crawford (L)

3B Kyle Seager (L)

DH Dan Vogelbach (L)

C Tom Murphy (R)

RF Kyle Lewis (R)

1B Evan White (R)

LF Jake Fraley (L)

2B Shed Long (L)

       Projected Rotation

Marco Gonzales (L)

Yusei Kikuchi (L)

Taijuan Walker (R)

Kendall Graveman (R)

Justus Sheffield (L)

Justin Dunn (R)

       Projected Bullpen

Yoshihisa Hirano, closer (R)

Austin Adams (R)

Matt Magill (R)

Dan Altavilla (R)

Brandon Brennan (R)

Taylor Williams (R)

Nestor Cortes Jr. (L)

Carl Edwards Jr. (R)

Erik Swanson (R)

Taylor Guilbeau (L)

       Projected Bench

C Austin Nola (R)

IF Dee Gordon (L)

IF Dylan Moore (R)

UT Tim Lopes (R)

1B/OF Jose Marmolejos (L)

Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats:

58-43 record, 3rd in AL West

Most home runs: Shed Long (24)

Highest batting average: Shed Long (.273)

Highest OPS: Shed Long (.861)

Best ERA, starters: Marco Gonzales (2.80)

Best ERA, relievers: Dan Altavilla (3.28)

Most innings pitched: Marco Gonzales (141.1)

Most strikeouts: Yusei Kikuchi (115)

Best K/9: Erik Swanson (15.2)

Record through 60 games, last five seasons:

2019: 25-35

2018: 38-22

2017: 30-30

2016: 33-27

2015: 27-33

       Prediction

The Mariners are the one bad team in the AL West. The Astros are still really good, and the A\’s have some stars as well. The Angels have Mike Trout, and that\’s enough (they also have Anthony Rendon, and that\’s good, too). The Rangers might have a top-5 rotation in the major leagues. The Mariners are falling behind, but they could be good in 2-3 years. The Mariners will not be good in 2019, however, and finish last in the AL West.

       The Giants had a dynasty to start the 2010s. 2010, 2012 and 2014 all ended with a new World Series trophy going to AT&T Park. But, by the end of the decade, the Giants were out of the playoffs three years in a row, manager Bruce Bochy had retired and AT&T Park is now known as Oracle Park. However, the Giants are still an old team, and a fire sale could happen very, very soon as the veterans either leave or regress.

       Offseason additions: OF Hunter Pence, RHP Kevin Gausman, LHP Drew Smyly, IF Wilmer Flores, OF Billy Hamilton, IF Yolmer Sanchez, LHP Jarlin Garcia, LHP Tyler Anderson, RHP Trevor Cahill.

       Offseason subtractions: LHP Madison Bumgarner, LHP Will Smith, OF Kevin Pillar, LHP Derek Holland, C Stephen Vogt, RHP Burch Smith, RHP Kyle Barraclough.

       Rotation

The Giants\’ Opening Day starter will be a former ace who has made just 13 starts over the last two years. September marked Johnny Cueto\’s return from Tommy John surgery, and the former Red will take over the Opening Day starter role from the departed Madison Bumgarner. In his last full season of 2017, Cueto had a 4.52 ERA with 136 strikeouts in 147.1 innings. A pitcher who has struck out at least 200 batters in three different seasons, Jeff Samardzija has lost his strikeout ability. Samardzija struck out only 140 batters in 181.1 innings, for a 6.9 K/9. Samardzija had a 3.52 ERA, his best since 2014. Samardzija\’s fastball allowed an average of .174 with a 2571 rpm spin rate. Former 4th overall pick Kevin Gausman signed with the Giants, after moving to the bullpen for the Reds last year. Combined for Atlanta and Cincinnati, Gausman had a 5.72 ERA with 114 strikeouts in 102.1 innings. The strikeouts helped Gausman finish with a good 3.98 FIP. Gausman\’s split finger had a whiff rate of 40.8%. Another newcomer, Drew Smyly, made his return to baseball last year after missing 2017 and 2018. Smyly had a 8.42 ERA for Texas, leading to him being released and signed by the Brewers, who released Smyly before he could play, so the Phillies stepped in. Smyly started 12 games for Philadelphia, with a 4.45 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 62.2 innings. Smyly developed a curveball, a slow pitch with very little spin (1950 rpm). He rejoins manager ex-Phillies manager Gabe Kapler in San Francisco. The Giants likely will not have a traditional rotation, with starters \”piggybacking\” off of each other. One of these guys could be former 1st round pick Tyler Anderson, finally freed from Coors Field. Anderson has a career ERA of 4.69, with 367 strikeouts in 397 innings. Anderson has an average exit velocity allowed of 86.5 mph in his career. Without many locks in the bullpen, the Giants could have more starters make the roster than any other team. Logan Webb, ranked by MLB Pipeline as the club\’s 12th best prospect, debuted in 2019. He had a 5.22 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 39.2 innings. Dereck Rodriguez, son of Ivan \”Pudge\” Rodriguez, had a 2.81 ERA in his rookie year of 2018, but finished with a 5.64 ERA in 2019, with a 6.5 K/9.

       Bullpen

After Will Smith left, and Sam Dyson and Mark Melancon were traded at the deadline, and Reyes Moronta tore his labrum, Tony Watson is left as the only reliever who can be a realistic closing option. Watson, who has a career ERA of 2.81, had the worst season of his career in 2019, with a 4.17 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 54 innings. Watson has a career exit velocity against of 86.1 mph. Trevor Gott had his best year since 2015, with a career high 57 strikeouts and a 9.7 K/9. Gott had a 4.44 ERA with a 1.101 WHIP. Gott\’s fastball had a .190 average against. Submariner Tyler Rogers had a great debut, and is still credited as a rookie for 2020. He had a 1.02 ERA plus 16 strikeouts and 0.849 WHIP in 17.2 innings. Rogers allowed groundballs 70% of the time. Left-hander Wandy Peralta had a 3.18 ERA in eight games for the Giants last year. He appeared in 177 games over four years in Cincinnati. Sam Coonrod throws a high-90s fastball, and had a 3.58 ERA in 27.2 innings, striking out 20 batters. His fastball had a 31.3% whiff rate. Shaun Anderson moved from the rotation to the bullpen by the end of the year. Anderson struck out 70 batters in 96 innings. Anderson has a fastball with a 2495 rpm. Dany Jimenez can make the team after striking out 46 batters in 33.2 innings at AA last year, plus a 1.87 ERA. Ranked as the Giants\’ 29th best prospect, Jimenez is their Rule-5 pick. Andrew Suarez has 155 strikeouts in 193 career innings. Moved to the bullpen last year, Suarez posted a 5.79 ERA. Suarez\’s slider had an xBA against of .149. Non-roster invitee Carlos Navas had a 3.40 ERA in 84.2 MiLB innings last year, striking out 83 with a 1.098 WHIP. The 27 year old Venezuelan has not made his MLB debut yet.

       Catchers

After Buster Posey opted-out of the 2020 season, the Giants have a wide-open catching situation. Top prospect Joey Bart might be ready, but the Giants do not want to rush him, so the Giants will look to other non-roster invitees, with no catchers on the active roster. Switch-hitter Tyler Heineman made his MLB debut last year, hitting a home and going 3-for-11 in five games for Miami. He hit 13 home runs with a .336 average and a .990 OPS at AAA. Rob Brantly has appeared in five seasons for three teams since 2012, including the Marlins, like Heineman. While Brantly went 0-for-1 in the MLB last year, he hit .314 with an .866 OPS in AAA.

       Infielders

The first baseman is once again Brandon Belt, who has hit either 17 or 18 home runs in a season four separate times, but he has never hit more than that. Belt hit .234 with a .742 OPS last year, his lowest since his rookie year of 2011. Belt had four outs above average at first base. Wilmer Flores will get the second base job after having what would have been a career year in 2019, if he played in at least 120 games, instead of 89. Flores hit nine home runs, his lowest since 2014, but had a career high .317 average and .848 OPS. Flores struck out just 10.9 percent of the time. Three time Gold Glove winner Brandon Crawford hit 11 home runs last year, which was his lowest since 2014. Crawford had an awful OPS of .654. Crawford has regressed defensively, as he had -4 outs above average, after he had five OAA in 2017 and 2018. Evan Longoria, another three time Gold Glove winner, bounced back in 2019 after a weak 2018. Longoria hit 20 home runs, plus a .254 average and an OPS of .762. It was the 10th time that Longoria, probably the greatest Tampa Bay Ray of all time, had hit at least 20 home runs. Longoria had three outs above average, six more than he did in 2018. Mauricio Dubon, the 11th best prospect in the Giants\’ system. After being acquired from Milwaukee for Drew Pomeranz and Ray Black, Dubon took over at second base. He hit four home runs with three stolen bases, plus a .279 average and an OPS of .754. He had a low 4.5 BB%. Dubon can be a super utility player, and appear in the outfield as well as second base, third and shortstop. The Giants brought in Yolmer Sanchez, the 2019 AL Gold Glove winner at second base, on a minor league deal. Sanchez had a .656 OPS over six years in Chicago, topping out at 12 home runs, in 2017. Sanchez had an xSLG of just .320 last year. Pablo Sandoval can make the team after he posted his highest OPS since 2011 last year. Sandoval hit 14 home runs with a .268 average and an .820 OPS. Sandoval could just be a DH, as he is not a great fielder.

       Outfielders

Hunter Pence is back for his second stint in San Francisco after rejuvenating his career with the Rangers. Pence was an all-star for Texas in 2019, and finished the year with 18 home runs, his most since 2014, Pence\’s last all-star year. Pence hit .297 with a career high .910 OPS. Pence still has good speed, with a sprint speed of 28.5 ft/s last year. Mike Yastrzemski had a really good rookie season at age 28, hitting 21 home runs. Yastrzemski also had an OPS of .852 with a .518 SLG. Alex Dickerson was productive after coming over from San Diego. Dickerson hit .290 with an .880 OPS in 56 games, while hitting six home runs. He should have the starting left field spot locked up. Steven Duggar has appeared in 114 games for the Giants over the last two seasons. Duggar has a career OPS of .645, but had three outs above average in the outfield. Like Duggar, Austin Slater has been a role player over the last couple of years. Slater had an OPS+ of 99, almost at league average. Slater, who can play first base as well as the corner outfield spots, had a 28.3 ft/s sprint speed last year.

       Projected Opening Day Lineup

SS Brandon Crawford (L)

RF Hunter Pence (R)

CF Mike Yastrzemski (L)

3B Evan Longoria (R)

1B Brandon Belt (L)

2B Wilmer Flores (R)

DH Pablo Sandoval (S)

LF Alex Dickerson (L)

C Tyler Heineman (S)

       Projected Rotation

Johnny Cueto (R)

Jeff Samardzija (R)

Kevin Gausman (R)

Drew Smyly (L)

Tyler Anderson (L)

       Projected Bullpen

Tony Watson, closer (L)

Trevor Gott (R)

Tyler Rogers (R)

Wandy Peralta (L)

Sam Coonrod (R)

Logan Webb (R)

Dereck Rodriguez (R)

Andrew Suarez (L)

Dany Jimenez (R)

Shaun Anderson (R)

Carlos Navas (R)

       Projected Bench

C Rob Brantly (R)

UT Mauricio Dubon (R)

IF Yolmer Sanchez (S)

OF Steven Duggar (L)

OF Austin Slater (R)

Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats

42-56 record, 4th in NL West

Most home runs: Brandon Belt and Austin Slater (8)

Highest batting average: Wilmer Flores (.291)

Highest OPS: Wilmer Flores (.774)

Best ERA, starters: Tyler Anderson (3.03)

Best ERA, relievers: Trevor Gott (2.31)

Most innings pitched: Johnny Cueto (137.1)

Most strikeouts: Johnny Cueto (105)

Best K/9: Logan Webb (11.3)

Record through 60 games, last five seasons:

2019: 25-35

2018: 30-30

2017: 24-36

2016: 35-25

2015: 34-26

       Prediction

The Giants are a really bad team. While there are worse teams in the American League, squads like the Orioles and Tigers at least have some young players. The Giants are old, and washed up. It will take many years for them to get back to where they were at the start of this decade. I predict that the Giants will not only finish last in the NL West, but in the entire National League.