CarterHud

       The Padres entered last year as the new-and-improved team of the league. Their team was led by Manny Machado, who signed a 10 year deal with the club. However, the guy who was not guaranteed to make the roster, thanks to service time rules, outplayed Machado. The Padres, now led by a new manager, need to perform, after another disappointing 5th place finish.

       Offseason additions: OF Tommy Pham, RHP Emilio Pagan, LHP Drew Pomeranz, RHP Zach Davies, LHP Tim Hill, IF Jurickson Profar, OF Trent Grisham, RHP Pierce Johnson, IF/P Jake Cronenworth, IF Jorge Mateo, RHP Jerad Eickhoff.

       Offseason subtractions: OF Hunter Renfroe, OF Manuel Margot, IF Ian Kinsler, LHP Eric Lauer, LHP Robbie Erlin, IF Luis Urias, RHP Adam Warren, LHP Nick Margevicius, RHP Eric Yardley, OF Franchy Cordero, OF Travis Jankowski, OF Nick Martini, C Austin Allen.

       Rotation

Chris Paddack was expected to receive some Rookie of the Year votes after he had a good rookie season. While he didn\’t get any in the end, Paddack was a better candidate than some people who received votes (looking at you, Dakota Hudson). Paddack finished with a 3.33 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 140.2 innings and a WHIP of 0.981. Paddack throws his fastball more than 61% of the time, and the pitch had a .204 batting average against. Dinelson Lamet, who had an encouraging 2017 rookie season, returned last July after missing 2018 with Tommy John surgery. In 14 starts, Lamet struck out 105 batters in 73 innings with a 4.07 ERA, although he allowed 12 home runs. The big righty had a whiff rate of 48.3% against his curveball and his slider\’s rate was exactly three percent higher. Zach Davies comes over from Milwaukee after the Padres traded Luis Urias, formerly a top-100 prospect, in a package for Davies and outfielder Trent Grisham. Davies had a career low 3.55 ERA last year, but his 4.56 FIP and 5.7 K/9 were both the worst of his career. Davies struck out 102 batters in 159.2 innings. Left-hander Joey Lucchesi\’s second season was about as good as his first. Lucchesi finished with a 4.18 ERA with 158 strikeouts in 163.2 innings. Lucchesi was the only Padre to qualify for the ERA title. Lucchesi throws his sinker more than half of the time, resulting in a 48.7 groundball percentage. Former Angels ace Garrett Richards is always hurt. While he has a career ERA of 3.60, he has made just 31 starts since the start of the 2016 season. Richards has had multiple elbow injuries, had Tommy John surgery in July 2018, and had a shoulder injury while recovering from said Tommy John. Richards struck out 11 batters in the 8.2 innings he pitched in last year. When healthy, Richards can have the highest spin rate in baseball, averaging 3431 rpm on his curveball last season, although he only threw it 19 times. His fastball also averaged 2673 rpm. Cal Quantrill, son of former reliever Paul Quantrill, pitched in 103 innings last year, striking out 89 batters. A former top-50 prospect in baseball, the Padres could start Quantrill in the bullpen, and stretch him out when someone (likely Richards) is injured or if anyone gets COVID-19.

       Bullpen

Kirby Yates followed up his surprise 2018 season by topping it in 2019. Although he had a 0-5 record, Yates finished with a 1.19 ERA, 41 saves and 101 strikeouts in 60.2 innings. Yates also made his first all-star team, and finished 9th in Cy Young voting, tied with Dodgers pitcher Walker Buehler. The Hawaiian had an xSLG against of .259. In one of two trades with the Rays this offseason, outfielder Manuel Margot was dealt to Tampa for pitcher Emilio Pagan. Pagan, who will have played for four teams in four years when he makes his Padres debut, made 20 saves in 70 innings last year, with a 2.31 ERA and 96 strikeouts. Pagan had an xBA against of .174. Veteran Craig Stammen is back for his fourth season with the Padres. Stammen, who has been a workhorse for the Padres, is 20 games away from pitching in as many games as he did in over seven seasons in Washington. In a career high 76 appearances last year, Stammen made four saves, with 73 strikeouts in 83 innings. Stammen\’s average sinker velocity of 92.8 mph last year was his highest ever. Drew Pomeranz is back to San Diego, the team that he was on when he made his only all-star appearance, in 2016. Pomeranz had a 5.38 ERA as a starter for San Francisco before he was traded to Milwaukee. The Brewers utilized Pomeranz as a reliever, and he struck out 45 batters in 26.1 innings, with a 2.39 ERA. That was enough for the Padres to give Pomeranz $34 million over four years. Pomeranz threw four different pitches with a whiff rate of at least 20% last year. Matt Strahm started the season in the rotation, but was moved to the bullpen for good. He was better after the move, and finished with an ERA of 4.71, plus 118 strikeouts and 22 home runs allowed in 114.2 innings. 21 year-old Mexican Andres Munoz will miss the season with Tommy John surgery, and the Padres will miss his 100 miles an hour fastball. Luis Perdomo moved to the bullpen full-time last year, and benefitted, with a career best 4.00 ERA. Perdomo struck out just 55 batters in 72 innings. Because of his old role, Perdomo can pitch multiple innings. Six-foot-seven righty Trey Wingenter struck out 72 batters in 57 innings for a 12.7 K/9. Despite allowing an xBA of .197, Wingenter had a 5.65 ERA. His slider had a whiff rate of 46.9%. The Padres acquired Tim Hill yesterday from Kansas City. Hill had a 3.63 ERA with 39 Ks in 39.2 innings. For information about Hill, check out my article from yesterday. Pierce Johnson, who pitched for the Cubs and Giants from 2017-18, is back on a two-year deal after a year in Japan. A former first rounder, Johnson had a 1.38 ERA with 91 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. He had a 0.801 WHIP. Johnson has a curveball that had an average spin rate of 2971 rpm in 2018. The final spot is a competition between Michael Baez and David Bednar. Baez, the team\’s 7th best prospect, per MLB Pipeline, debuted in 2019, striking out 28 in 29.2 innings with a 3.03 ERA. The spot is his to lose.

       Catchers

Francisco Mejia is very close to taking over the starting catcher job from Austin Hedges, but I don\’t think that he\’s there yet. Hedges, one of the best defensive catchers in the game, with a 1.92 seconds pop-time to second base, and a 1.53 time to third base. Offensively, Hedges hit 11 homers, which isn\’t bad for a catcher, but he had a horrible batting average of .176 and OPS of .563. Mejia, who was once the top catching prospect in baseball, hit eight home runs with a .265 average and an OPS of .754 in a career high 79 games played. Mejia has the second best arm strength among catchers. Former Rule-5 pick Luis Torrens has played in 63 games over the last three years.

       Infielders

Manny Machado was disappointing in the first year of his $300 million contract. Machado did hit 32 home runs, but that was his lowest total since 2014. Machado had a .256 average and an OPS of .796, Machado still had an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph, and should rebound in 2020. Fernando Tatis Jr. finished 3rd in NL Rookie of the Year voting, and would have been the runner-up if he didn\’t miss the last six weeks with an injury. Tatis hit 22 home runs with 16 stolen bases, plus a .317 average and an OPS of .969, moving Machado to third base and stealing the spotlight. Formerly the number two prospect in baseball, Tatis had a .684 slugging against fastballs. Second base was the weak spot of the infield last year, with veteran Ian Kinsler on his last legs, finishing wih a sub-.700 OPS. To improve on that, the Padres acquired a player who barely had a .700 OPS, in Jurickson Profar. Profar, who had a .711 OPS, tied his 20 home runs from his breakout 2018, but hit just .218 with nine stolen bases. Profar improved on his K rate, which was down to 14.5%. Another corner infielder with a big contract, Eric Hosmer, had a slightly better 2019 than 2018. A four time Gold Glover, Hosmer hit 22 home runs with 99 RBIs, a .265 average and an OPS of .735. Greg Garcia appeared in 134 games for the Padres last year, although he only had 372 Plate Appearances. Garcia hit .248 with an OPS of .718, the latter his best since 2016 with St. Louis. Garcia had a high 14.2 BB%. Ty France hit seven home runs in a 69 game rookie season. France also hit the ball hard 42.6% of the time. He can be the back-up corner infielder. Jake Cronenworth has not played at the big league level yet, but is ranked as San Diego\’s 17th best prospect. In AAA for the Durham Bulls (Rays) last year, Cronenworth hit 10 home runs with 12 stolen bases, a .329 average and an OPS of .934. A pitcher in college, Cronenworth was an opener for Druham sometimes, not allowing a run in 7.1 innings with nine strikeouts, but if he pitches, it will be in a position player pitching situation. Speedy Jorge Mateo, acquired from Oakland for cash, has 283 stolen bases in his minor league career. Recovering from COVID, Mateo could be an asset when a runner starts on second base in extra innings.

       Outfielders

The Padres acquired Tommy Pham in a swap with the Rays for Hunter Renfroe, and they picked up Cronenworth in the deal as well. Pham hit 21 home runs with 25 stolen bases, with a .273 average and an .818 OPS. While Pham\’s home runs were about the same as the two years before 2019, his average and OPS were both lower than its predecessors. Pham has a career average exit velocity of 91.3 mph. Former Rookie of the Year winner Wil Myers has hit 30 home runs in a seson before, but only hit 18 last year. One of the few players in the league that does not use batting gloves, Myers had a .739 OPS. Myers\’ strikeout rate rose to 34.2% last year, nearly a seven percent increase from 2018. Trent Grisham is not a bad fielder, with five outs above average, Grisham is not a bad fielder, but after his error in the NL Wild Card last year, he might not be able to show his face in Milwaukee again. Grisham hit six home runs with a .738 OPS in his rookie year last year. Grisham had a sprint speed of 29.1 ft/s. The 12th overall pick in 2015, Josh Naylor, debuted last year, hitting eight home runs with a .719 OPS. With -7 outs above average, Naylor is not a great fielder, so he could be a full-time DH in 2020. Edward Olivares could be the reason why the Padres traded Franchy Cordero to the Royals. Olivares, who has not played in AAA, was acquired from Toronto in January 2016 for Yangervis Solarte. Olivares hit 18 home runs with 35 stolen bases, a .283 average and an OPS of .801.

       Projected Opening Day Lineup

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)

LF Tommy Pham (R)

3B Manny Machado (R)

1B Eric Hosmer (L)

CF Wil Myers (R)

DH Josh Naylor (L)

2B Jurickson Profar (S)

RF Trent Grisham (L)

C Austin Hedges (R)

       Projected Rotation

Chris Paddack (R)

Dinelson Lamet (R)

Zach Davies (R)

Joey Lucchesi (L)

Garrett Richards (R)

       Projected Bullpen

Kirby Yates (R)

Emilio Pagan (R)

Craig Stammen (R)

Drew Pomeranz (L)

Matt Strahm (L)

Luis Perdomo (R)

Trey Wingenter (R)

Tim Hill (L)

Pierce Johnson (R)

Cal Quantrill (R)

Michael Baez (R)

       Projected Bench

C Francisco Mejia (S)

IF Greg Garcia (L)

IF Ty France (R)

IF Jake Cronenworth (L)

OF Edward Olivares (R)

Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats:

41-57 record, 5th in NL West

Most home runs: Manny Machado (22)

Highest batting average: Manny Machado (.285)

Highest OPS: Manny Machado (.861)

Best ERA, starters: Zach Davies (3.75)

Best ERA, relievers: Emilio Pagan (1.24)

Most innings pitched: Chris Paddack (109.1)

Most strikeouts: Chris Paddack (108)

Best K/9: Michael Baez (12.7)

Record through 60 games, last five seasons:

2019: 31-29

2018: 26-34

2017: 23-37

2016: 25-35

2015: 30-30

       Prediction

The Padres are progressing. They have an elite bullpen, and it is deep. Their lineup is young, and while it isn\’t great after the first five hitters, it is decent enough to not finish last. The Padres are much better than the Giants, and a little better than the Rockies, so I predict that they will finish 3rd in the NL West, but still miss the playoffs.

       Last year was not a fun year to be a Pittsburgh Pirate. The team was bad, finishing 69-93, last in the NL Central. But, that is just the start. Clubhouse altercations and creepy closers made 2019 a year to forget in Pittsburgh. The Pirates finally discarded General Manager Neal Huntington after many disappointing events, and bad moves, topped off by the Chris Archer trade that could have sent three young stars to Tampa Bay, depending on Shane Baz\’s development. Also, Huntington trading away a certain former 1st overall pick who got $325 million this offseason. With ex Red Sox GM Ben Cherington at the helm, and Derek Shelton taking over for Clint Hurdle at manager, the Pirates might need to rebuild first, and could be very active at a trade deadline which seems to be dormant on August 31st.

       Offseason additions: OF Guillermo Heredia, OF Jarrod Dyson, IF JT Riddle, LHP Derek Holland, LHP Robbie Erlin, C John Ryan Murphy.

       Offseason subtractions: OF Starling Marte, OF Melky Cabrera, LHP Francisco Liriano, IF Jung Ho Kang, C Elias Diaz.

       Rotation

Once again, Jameson Taillon is injured. While he has a decent career ERA of 3.67, Taillon has been very disappointing, being the guy drafted between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. He will miss all of 2020 with Tommy John surgery. Joe Musgrove\’s first full season was not ace material, although he will likely start on Opening Day. The former Astro had a 4.44 ERA with 157 strikeouts in 170.1 innings. Musgrove\’s best pitch is his slider, which had a 39.3 whiff percentage. After a great (but fluky) 2018 season, Trevor Williams did not keep it up at all, striking out 113 batters in 145.2 innings with a 5.38 ERA. The former Marlin farmhand has an average exit velocity against of 85.9 mph in his career. The aforementioned Archer will join Taillon on the sidelines in 2020, as he had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, a procedure that pitchers do not usually return to from easily from, most notably Matt Harvey. The guy taking the third rotation spot from Archer, Mitch Keller, has a chance to be one of the only silver linings for the 2020 Pirates. Pittsburgh\’s top prospect and the 39th best prospect in baseball (MLB Pipeline), Keller debuted in 2019, striking out 65 in 48 innings, but had a 7.11 ERA. However, Keller had a good 3.19 FIP. Keller\’s mid-to-high-90s fastball got lit up, with a .719 slugging against. Veteran lefty Derek Holland will be in the rotation after mainly being a reliever in 2019 for the Giants and Cubs. In 51 games (eight starts), Holland had a 6.08 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 84.1 innings. Holland had a 3.57 ERA and qualified in 2018. The final spot is a battle between Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl. Kuhl, returning from Tommy John surgery, did not pitch in 2019. He has a 4.37 ERA in 61 career starts, with 276 strikeouts in 313 innings. Kuhl\’s curveball has a 2901 rpm spin rate. Brault, a lefty, has been more of a reliever than a starter in his career. He had a 5.16 ERA with 100 strikeouts in 113.1 innings last year. Brault had a good career barrel percentage allowed of 5.9%.

       Rotation

Keone Kela will take over the closer role. Felipe Vazquez had a great three-and-a-half-years in Pittsburgh, but, well, click on the \”creepy closers\” link from the introduction if you don\’t know why he won\’t play in 2020. Kela, who closed out games in 2018 for the Rangers, had his first full season as a Pirate last year. Kela finished with a 2.12 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 29.2 innings. Kela has a career 30.1 K%. Richard Rodriguez\’s second season in Pittsburgh was not as good as the first, but it was still decent. Rodriguez finished with a 3.72 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 65.1 innings. However, Rodriguez allowed 14 home runs. Rodriguez has a fastball with an rpm of 2506, more than his slider. Kyle Crick, part of the Andrew McCutchen trade, had his worst MLB season, allowing 10 home runs with a 4.96 ERA. He did have a career high 11.2 K/9, with 61 Ks in 49 innings. Crick has a career exit velocity against of 85.2 mph. Michael Feliz, acquired with Musgrove from Houston for Gerrit Cole, had his best season yet, with a 3.99 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 56.1 innings. However, like other relievers on the team, Feliz allowed double digit home runs, with 11. Feliz allowed an xBA of .205. Former starter Chris Stratton was awful to start the season with the Angels, but improved after being purchased by the Pirates. In Pittsburgh, Stratton had a 3.66 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. Stratton\’s curveball had a spin rate of 3107 rpm, the 4th best in the league. Right-hander Clay Holmes had a 5.58 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 50 innings. Holmes had a barrel percentage against of 5.1%. 27 year old Nick Burdi, a former 2nd round pick, has had Tommy John surgery and thoracic outlet sydrome surgery, the latter happening after his season ended on the mound, when Burdi fell to the ground, clutching his arm after throwing a fastball near 97 miles an hour, which is just about his average fastball velocity. Burdi struck out 17 batters in 8.2 innings last year, but had a 9.35 ERA. His FIP was good, at 1.83. Dovydas Neveraukas, a Lithuanian pitch with the longest name ever, has pitched in 61.2 innings over the last three years. He has a career ERA of 6.71 with 54 strikeouts. Neverauskas struck out 10 batters in 9.1 innings and allowed 11 runs last year. His curveball has a 2915 rpm spin rate. Robbie Erlin, a lefty who was a Padre since 2013, being their longest tenured player, comes to Pittsburgh after he posted a 5.37 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 55.1 innings. Erlin has a career FIP of 3.59. Puerto Rican righty Yacksel Rios was claimed off waivers by the Pirates in August. He had a 5.23 ERA in his final 10 outings, with 10 Ks. Rios\’ fastball averaged 96.2 mph.

       Catchers

Jacob Stallings and Luke Maile will be the two catchers in 2020, although it is unclear who will start. It will likely be Stallings, but Maile can win it over him. Stallings appeared in 71 games for Pittsburgh last year, with six home runs, a .262 average and an OPS of .708. Maile, who has spent the last three years in Toronto, has a career OPS of .556. He has hit 10 home runs with 60 RBIs in 215 games for Toronto and Tampa Bay.

       Infielders

Josh Bell took over the mantle of best hitter on the Pirates last year, hitting 37 home runs with 116 RBIs and a .936 OPS. Bell had a 92.3 mph average exit velocity, and an xSLG of .556. With Starling Marte off to Arizona, Bell is the only returning Pirate who hit at least 20 home runs last year. Second baseman Adam Frazier has some value, with a 2.0 bWAR last year, so he could be traded midseason. Frazier matched his 10 home runs from 2018, and stole five bases with a .278 average and a .753 OPS. Frazier\’s average has gone up by exactly one point each year for the last three seasons, so maybe he hits .279 in 2020? He had 11 outs above average at second base. 2015 first round pick Kevin Newman had a good first full year, hitting 12 home runs with 16 stolen bases, a .308 average and an OPS of .800. Newman can play second and third base as well as his primary position of shortstop. Newman struck out just 11.7% of the time in 2019. Colin Moran, the 3rd player in the Cole trade (the 4th and final player, Jason Martin, has a decent chance at making the roster in the outfield), hit 13 home runs and had the exact same batting average of .277 for the second year in a row. His fielding at third base isn\’t great, with -7 outs above average. His brother Brian debuted last year for the Marlins, and his uncle, BJ Surhoff was drafted 1st overall in 1985 (his other uncle, Phil Surhoff, also played in the MLB). Utility infielder Erik Gonzalez played in 53 games after being acquired from Cleveland. He has a career OPS of .659. Gonzalez has good speed, with a sprint speed of 28.6 ft/s last year. Jose Osuna could be the DH, or play first and Bell would then be the designated hitter. Osuna hit 10 home runs with a .766 OPS in 95 games last year. He can also play the corner outfield spots. JT Riddle has played centerfield before, but the Pirates could test him out in left and right. Over three seasons for the Marlins, Riddle hit 18 home runs with 79 RBIs, a .229 average and an OPS of .638. Riddle had an average exit velocity of 88.9 mph last year. Former 1st rounder Cole Tucker also has a chance to make the squad.

       Outfielders

Bryan Reynolds was snubbed of being a Rookie of the Year finalist. Acquired with Crick from San Francisco for former MVP Andrew McCutchen, Reynolds hit 16 home runs with a .314 average and an .880 OPS while playing left field. Reynolds hit 14 home runs with a batting average of .341 against fastballs. To make up for the loss of Starling Marte, the Pirates signed a pair of OFs in Jarrod Dyson in Guillermo Heredia, with the latter likely being the 4th outfielder. Dyson, known to be one of the league\’s fastest players, stole 30 bases last year for Marte\’s new team, the Diamondbacks. Dyson also hit a career high seven home runs. Dyson had six outs above average combined at all three outfield positions last season. Gregory Polanco, a two-time 20+ home run hitter, played in just 42 games last year. He hit six home runs with three stolen bases, a .242 average and an OPS of .726. The tall lefty had an average exit velocity of 89.4 mph. Heredia spent last year in Tampa Bay, where he hit five home runs, the same amount he hit in 2018, but he played in 36 more games that year. Heredia had a career high .668 OPS. Jason Martin might not stay with the team all year, as rosters revert from 30 men down to 28 and eventually 26. Martin, who is from Corona, California, a town that might not be embracing their name right now, had a .631 OPS in 20 games last year, his first taste of MLB action. Martin, who was a top-30 prospect in the organization, had an average exit velocity of 91 miles per hour, but only had 26 batted balls.

       Projected Opening Day Lineup

SS Kevin Newman (R)

LF Bryan Reynolds (S)

1B Josh Bell (S)

3B Colin Moran (L)

RF Gregory Polanco (L)

2B Adam Frazier (L)

DH Jose Osuna (R)

C Jacob Stallings (R)

CF Jarrod Dyson (L)

        Projected Rotation

Joe Musgrove (R)

Trevor Williams (R)

Mitch Keller (R)

Derek Holland (L)

Chad Kuhl (R)

       Projected Bullpen

Keone Kela (R)

Richard Rodriguez (R)

Kyle Crick (R)

Michael Feliz (R)

Chris Stratton (R)

Steven Brault (L)

Clay Holmes (R)

Nick Burdi (R)

Dovydas Neverauskas (R)

Robbie Erlin (L)

Yacksel Rios (R)

       Projected Bench

C Luke Maile (R)

IF Erik Gonzalez (R)

UT JT Riddle (L)

OF Guillermo Heredia (R)

OF Jason Martin (L)

Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats

42-54 record, 4th in NL Central

Most home runs: Gregory Polanco (15)

Highest batting average: Adam Frazier (.328)

Highest OPS: Adam Frazier (.860)

Best ERA, starters: Trevor Williams (3.53)

Best ERA, relievers: Richard Rodriguez (1.75)

Most innings pitched: Joe Musgrove (116.1)

Most strikeouts: Joe Musgrove (105)

Best K/9: Keone Kela (11.2)

Record through 60 games, last five seasons:

2019: 29-31

2018: 30-30

2017: 26-34

2016: 32-28

2015: 33-37

       Prediction

The Pirates are not very good. With teams like the Cardinals, Brewers and Cubs in the division making recent playoff appearances, and the Reds making many improvements, the Pirates have fallen behind their NL Central competitors. I predict that they will finish last in the NL Central, and 14th in the National League.

       The Phillies made headlines in March of 2019 when they decided to go all-in, after signing former rival Bryce Harper to a 13-year, $330 million contract. Former MVP Andrew McCutchen and JT Realmuto, arguably the best catcher in the game, both joined the squad, as well as infielder Jean Segura. But when the rotation became a one-man squad and the bullpen was very, very shallow after David Robertson had Tommy John surgery, the Phillies fell, dropping to an even 81-81 record, and 4th in the division. This past offseason, the Phillies tried to once again to go all-in on a former rival to improve the team.

       Offseason additions: RHP Zack Wheeler, SS Didi Gregorius, RHP Anthony Swarzak, IF Neil Walker, IF Josh Harrison, IF Logan Forsythe, OF Nick Martini, OF Mikie Mahtook, RHP Bud Norris, LHP Francisco Liriano.

       Offseason subtractions: IF Cesar Hernandez, OF Corey Dickerson, LHP Drew Smyly, LHP Jason Vargas, RHP Jerad Eickhoff, RHP Juan Nicasio, RHP Mike Morin, OF Odubel Herrera, RHP Jared Hughes, UT Sean Rodriguez, RHP Edubray Ramos, IF Brad Miller.

        Rotation

Aaron Nola cemented himself as the ace of the staff after finishing 3rd in NL Cy Young voting in 2018. Nola had a rough start to the 2019 season, with an ERA of 4.89 after 15 starts. A good July and a great August lowered that to 3.45, but Nola had two bad starts to close the season out. He finished with a 3.87 ERA in 34 starts, with 229 Ks in 202.1 innings. Still only 27 years old, Nola\’s average exit velocity rose by 2.6 mph compared to his 2018 final number. Former Met Zack Wheeler steps in, and he is another pitcher with a great 2018 (3.31 ERA) and regression in 2019. Wheeler had a 3.96 ERA with 195 strikeouts in 195.1 innings, plus a 1.259 WHIP. Wheeler\’s fastball averaged 96.8 miles per hour. Right before turning 30, it was a surprise to see Wheeler get a five year, $118 million deal, even if he was the third best starter on the open market. Zach Eflin, the return when the Phillies dealt former face-of-the-franchise Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles, had a career best 4.13 ERA with 129 strikeouts in 163.1 innings. A struggle from late-June to July forced the Phillies to move Eflin to the bullpen for four outings. He had an average exit velocity of 86.7 mph. Veteran Jake Arrieta, the 2015 Cy Young winner, had a rough second season in Philadelphia, making only 24 starts. Arrieta had a 4.64 ERA, the worst of his career (minimum 100 innings) since before the Cubs acquired him in 2013. The batting average against Arrieta\’s sinker rose by 34 points from 2018. The final rotation spot will be an intense battle between Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta, while the loser moves on to the bullpen. Both pitchers came out of the bullpen at times in 2019, and Velasquez had some fun in the field as well. A 2nd rounder in 2010, Velasquez struck out 130 batters in 117.1 innings, with a 4.91 ERA. Pivetta had a 5.38 ERA, slightly above his career ERA of 5.34. He struck out 89 batters in 93.2 innings. Pivetta\’s curveball has a very good spin rate of 2861 rpm.

        Bullpen

The bullpen is just wild. Of the 11 projected spots, very few of them are guaranteed. Hector Neris, last year\’s closer, is a lock. Neris had a career high 28 saves last year, with a 2.93 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 67.2 innings, with a .199 xBA against. Seranthony Dominguez will miss the season with Tommy John surgery, whenever he gets it. That leaves a pair of lefties as Neris\’ main set-up men, as David Robertson, the first of many ex-Yankees on the roster, also recovers from Tommy John. Jose Alvarez is one of the two southpaws, acquired before 2019 from the Angels for Luis Garcia, a deal that looked good when it happened and got better when Alvarez posted a 3.36 ERA in 59 innings over 67 games. Alvarez has a career 8.0 K/9. Ranger Suarez, who also is in the running for the 5th starter job, had a 3.14 ERA over 48.2 innings. Suarez had an average exit velocity against of 86.3 mph. Tommy Hunter, still in quarantine, only played in five games last year. In his 70 games with the Phillies over the last two years, Hunter had a 3.50 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 69.1 innings. The 250 pound Hunter has a curveball that averaged 3000 rpm in his short stint last year, but was 2750 rpm in 2018. Non-roster invitee Anthony Swarzak is trying to make his ninth team. For Seattle and Atlanta last year, Swarzak had a 4.56 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 53.1 innings. Adam Morgan, the third lefty so far, has a curveball with a spin rate of 2994 rpm. It will be interesting to see how the three batter minimum rule affects Morgan, as he has appeared in 107 games over the last two seasons, but has pitched it just 79 innings. Last year, Morgan had a 3.94 ERA with 29 Ks in 29.2 innings. He had a 1.011 WHIP. Right-hander Victor Arano has a 2.65 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 74.2 innings in his three year career. While he only pitched in three games last year, Arano\’s slider had a 64% whiff rate. Robert Stock, owner of a fastball that averaged nearly 98 miles per hour, has 53 strikeouts in 50.1 career innings. He had a solid 2.50 ERA in 2018, but allowed 14 runs in 10.1 innings for San Diego last campaign. Former Angels closers Blake Parker and Bud Norris are in a battle for a spot. Parker has the advantage as Norris did not play in the majors in 2019. Parker had a 4.55 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 61.1 innings for the Twins and Phillies last year. Norris had a 3.59 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 57.2 innings for St. Louis in 2018. The final spot could be between veteran lefty Francisco Liriano and Cole Irvin. Liriano had a 3.47 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 70 innings. It was his return to Pittsburgh, the place where he was an ace. Irvin had 31 strikeouts in 41.2 innings last year for the Phillies. 2019 was Irvin\’s rookie season.

       Catchers

Top prospect Sixto Sanchez and young catcher Jorge Alfaro were sacrificed to Miami so the Phillies could acquire JT Realmuto. Realmuto became the league\’s best catcher in 2019, hitting 25 home runs with an .820 OPS. He won his second Silver Slugger and his first Gold Glove. Realmuto had a pop-time to second base of 1.88 seconds. His average exit velocity of 90.3 mph was a career best. Andrew Knapp is back for his 4th season as the back-up catcher for the Phillies. Knapp is an awful hitter, with a career OPS of .663, but he is an above average pitch framer.

       Infielders

Rhys Hoskins burst onto the scene in 2017, hitting 18 home runs in 50 games. He has regressed in each year since, in both average and OPS. Hoskins hit 29 home runs with a .226 average and an .819 OPS last year. He did walk more, with a league leading 116 BBs. Hoskins, who was awful in left field (-18 outs above average in 2018) was able to turn into a good defender at first base, with four OAA. Scott Kingery and Jean Segura will either play second or third base, and it looks more like Kingery will be at second. Playing mostly center field last year, Kingery hit 19 home runs with 15 stolen bases, a .258 average and an OPS of .788. Kingery had a sprint speed of 29.1 mph. Segura has been a middle infielder previously in his career, but will move to third. A two-time all-star, Segura hit 12 home runs with 10 stolen bases and a .280 batting average. While Segura had a low 4.9 BB%, his 11.8 K rate was in the top-five percent of the league. Didi Gregorius, a fan favorite in New York who played under new manager Joe Girardi, comes in on a one year, prove-it deal. Recovering from Tommy John surgery, Gregorius had his worst offensive season since 2015, hitting 16 home runs with a .718 OPS. His 27 home runs in 2018 is the most in a single season for a Yankees shortstop. Gregorius\’ defense regressed, with -13 outs above average in 2019. The back-up spots are a throw-up between non-roster invitees Neil Walker, Ronald Torreyes, Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison and Phil Gosselin, with the first two being former Yankees (although Walker never played under Girardi). A switch-hitter, Walker was primarily a second baseman before Milwaukee moved him to third and 2017 and the Yankees tried him out at first in 2018. Walker hit eight home runs with a .261 average for the Marlins last year. Walker hit .300 versus fastballs last year. Harrison and Forsythe are the main competitors for the final spot. Harrison is a two-time all-star, but had a .480 OPS for Detroit last year. Forsythe hit seven home runs with a .678 OPS for Texas last year. Harrison\’s all-star seasons were his only years with an OPS+ of over 100, while Forsythe has one more season with that qualification.

       Outfielders

Bryce Harper may not be a top-ten player in baseball, and he definitely is not worth $330 million, but he is definitely a good player. Harper hit 35 home runs with 15 stolen bases, 99 walks, and an .882 OPS last year. Harper\’s 91.3 mph average exit velocity was his best in a five year period. Andrew McCutchen has recovered from his torn ACL. Prior to the injury, McCutchen was a good lead-off hitter, with 10 home runs, a .378 OBP and an OPS of .834. It will be interesting to see if McCutchen can keep up his 28.8 ft/s sprint speed. Jay Bruce will be the DH, even after he had two outs above average in left last year. Bruce hit 26 home runs with a .784 OPS for the Mariners and Phillies last year. Bruce\’s stats were hurt by a low 5.7 BB%. That puts Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn in a battle for that spot. Haseley debuted in 2019, playing in 67 games. He hit five home runs with four stolen bases and a .266 batting average. Quinn has 23 stolen bases in 109 career games, but a .703 OPS. Quinn had a 30.1 ft/s sprint speed last year, which could mean that he is better suited as a pinch-runner. Nick Williams hit 29 home runs from 2017-18, but struggled when he was pushed out of the lineup, with a .151 average and a .442 OPS in 67 games. Williams\’ strikeout rate went up by nearly 14%.

        Projected Opening Day Lineup

CF Andrew McCutchen (R)

RF Bryce Harper (L)

1B Rhys Hoskins (R)

C JT Realmuto (R)

DH Jay Bruce (L)

3B Jean Segura (R)

SS Didi Gregorius (L)

2B Scott Kingery (R)

LF Adam Haseley (L)

       Projected Rotation

Aaron Nola (R)

Zack Wheeler (R)

Zach Eflin (R)

Jake Arrieta (R)

Vince Velasquez (R)

       Projected Bullpen

Hector Neris, closer (R)

Jose Alvarez (L)

Ranger Suarez (L)

Tommy Hunter (R)

Victor Arano (R)

Nick Pivetta (R)

Anthony Swarzak (R)

Adam Morgan (L)

Blake Parker (R)

Robert Stock (R)

Francisco Liriano (L)

       Projected Bench

C Andrew Knapp (S)

IF Neil Walker (S)

IF Logan Forsythe (R)

OF Roman Quinn (S)

OF Nick Williams (L)

Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats

50-46 record, 3rd in NL West

Most home runs: Rhys Hoskins (21)

Highest batting average: Didi Gregorius (.306)

Highest OPS: JT Realmuto (.889)

Best ERA, starters: Aaron Nola (3.62)

Best ERA, relievers: Victor Arano (2.32)

Most innings pitched: Aaron Nola (124.1)

Most strikeouts: Aaron Nola (136)

Best K/9: Hector Neris (13.6)

Record through 60 games, last five years

2019: 33-27

2018: 32-28

2017: 21-39

2016: 29-31

2015: 22-38

       Prediction

There is a lot of pressure on the Phillies to do well in 2020. GM Matt Klentak is on the hot seat, after spending hundreds of millions of dollars the past two offseasons. And still, the pitching staff is a wreck and the lineup is worse than the rivals Mets, Braves and Nationals. Now on manager three of his tenure, Klentak might be the only General Manager to get fired over a 60-game season. I predict that the Phillies will finish 4th in the NL East once again, missing the playoffs.

       The Atlanta Braves have signed outfielder Yasiel Puig, according to reports from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The financial details have not yet been released or reported.

       Puig brings a wacky personality and a good bat to the Braves offense. The will replace veteran outfielder Nick Markakis, who last week decided to opt-out of the 2020 MLB season. This move also comes right after top prospect Christian Pache sustained an ankle injury, although Pache should be good-to-go. Puig is mainly a right fieler, but can play left field if needed. The Braves\’ current left fielder is Marcell Ozuna, who could become the first full-time DH in team history. Puig isn\’t the best defender himself. He had zero outs above average in right field last year, but had two after being traded to Cleveland at the deadline in a three-team deal with Trevor Bauer being the headliner. Puig has decent speed, with a sprint speed of 28.2 ft/s last year, in the 79th percentile among players. He stole a career high 19 bases last year. The contract will most likely be a one year deal, and my prediction is that the salary will be between $3 million and $6 million.

       Puig, 29, hit 24 home runs with 84 RBIs, 19 stolen bases, a .267 average and a .785 OPS in 611 Plate Appearances for the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians in 2019. In his seven year MLB career for the Reds, Indians and Los Angeles Dodgers, Puig has hit 132 homers with 415 RBIs, 79 stolen bases, a .277 batting average and an OPS of .823 in 3376 Plate Appearances. Puig had an average exit velocity of 89.9 mph last year.

       Update: Puig failed his physical and is still a free agent.