Oakland Athletics 2020 Season Preview

       The Oakland Athletics\’ last game was the AL Wild Card game, a home game played against the Tampa Bay Rays. Both the A\’s and Rays are very similar, in that they have a bunch of analytic darlings, and they always seem to surprise people. However, while the lineup, specifically the infield, is great, the pitching staff is inexperienced, and the A\’s might have to wait until their prospects develop for that to improve. As people have said many, many times before, anything can happen in a 60-game season, and I think that will either really help or really hurt the Athletics.
       Offseason additions: OF Tony Kemp, LHP TJ McFarland, RHP Burch Smith, C Austin Allen, IF Ryan Goins.
       Offseason subtractions: IF Jurickson Profar, RHP Blake Treinen, C Josh Phegley, LHP Brett Anderson, RHP Tanner Roark, LHP Ryan Buchter, C Chris Herrmann, C Nick Hundley.
       Rotation
Shoulder surgery in late 2018 and some setbacks forced Sean Manaea to be on the IL until August. In his five starts after returning, Manaea had a 1.21 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 29.2 innings, earning himself the Wild Card start. Manaea bombed in the game, allowing four runs in two innings. Manaea throws a sub-90s fastball about 63% of the time. The pitch\’s low spin rate helped it have a .148 average against. Mike Fiers became a man-of-the-people (except people that like the Astros) after breaking the news that his old team in Houston, where he won a World Series ring, cheated throughout the 2017 season. On the field, Fiers had a decent season, with a 3.90 ERA in 184.2 innings. A concern with Fiers, who is now 35 years old, is that he struck out only 126 batters for a 6.1 K/9, the worst in his career (minimum 50 innings pitched). Fiers has a good curveball, with a 2781 rpm and a .216 slugging against. Frankie Montas was having a career season, until he was handed an 80-game suspension for the use of PEDs. He returned just in time to make one start. Overall, Montas had a 2.63 ERA with 103 strikeouts in 96 innings. The A\’s will have AJ Puk, their third best prospect and the 60th best in the league (per MLB Pipeline), start in the rotation. Puk made his MLB debut last year, with a 3.18 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 11.1 innings out of the pen. Puk, recovering from Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss 2018, was mainly a reliever in the minors last year, but was a starter before the injury. Puk\’s fastball averaged 97.1 miles per hour. The A\’s top prospect (and 12th best in the league), Jesus Luzardo, could start the season in the bullpen due to a positive test for COVID, before joining the rotation. Like Puk, Luzardo debuted last year and was strictly a reliever, with a 1.50 ERA and two saves in 12 innings with 16 strikeouts. Luzardo\’s fastball is also, well, fast, with a 96.8 mph average. When Luzardo joins the rotation, whether to start to season or not, Chris Bassitt will be pushed into a swing-man role. In 28 games (25 starts) last year, Bassitt had a 3.81 ERA with 141 strikeouts in a career high 144 innings, plus a 1.194 WHIP. Bassitt has a career average exit velocity against of 86.9 miles per hour.
       Bullpen
At age 30, Liam Hendriks made his first all-star team after taking the closer job from the struggling Blake Treinen. The Perth, Austrailia native had a 1.80 ERA with 25 saves and 124 strikeouts in 85 innings. Hendriks had an xwOBA against of just .229. Hendriks did blow seven saves, and the only closers with more were Kenley Jansen of the Dodgers and Emilio Pagan of the Raya (both with eight). Workhorse reliever Yusmeiro Petit pitched in an AL high 80 games, second in MLB to Alex Claudio of the Brewers. Petit had a 2.71 ERA with 71 strikeouts in 83 innings. Petit walked just 3.2% of batters. Veteran reliever Joakim Soria has played for seven teams and is entering his 13th season. 2019 may have been his worst career season, with a career high 4.30 ERA in 69 innings, but he still struck out 79 batters. Soria\’s slider had a .061 slugging against. Lou Trivino had a great rookie season with a 2.92 ERA and 10.0 K/9, but he experienced a sophomore slump. Trivino\’s ERA rose by more than two full runs, up to 5.25. He didn\’t strike out as many batters as before, with 57 in 60 innings. However, Trivino was unlucky, as his xERA was 3.83. He allows soft contact, with an average exit velocity of 85.5 mph. The A\’s acquired Jake Diekman mid-season from Kansas City, and brought him back on a two year deal. While his 4.65 combined ERA brought his career total up to 3.90, his 84 strikeouts in 62 innings for a 12.2 K/9 was the second best of Diekman\’s career. Diekman had an xSLG against of just .301 and allowed just three home runs all season. JB Wendelken isn\’t a major strikeout guy, with 34 in 32.2 innings last year. But, he is a good pitcher, with a 3.58 ERA and a 0.918 WHIP last year in a middle relief role. Wendelken\’s fastball, averaging 94.8 mph, had an average against of .173 last year. TJ McFarland is a lefty that can throw multiple innings if you need him to, or just a couple of lefties. He had a 4.82 ERA in 56 innings last year, but had a 2.00 ERA with Arizona in 2018, pitching in 72 innings. McFarland has a very low career K/9 of 5.5. Burch Smith has a good chance of making the team. A 30 year-old with 65 games of MLB experience, Smith had a 5.48 ERA in 21.1 innings last year. 10 of his 17 games were spent with the Giants, where Smith had a 2.08 ERA with six Ks in 8.2 innings. Paul Blackburn is one of the only remaining arms on the 40-man roster with MLB experience. In his 20 game (17 starts) career, Blackburn has a 5.18 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 97.1 innings. Grant Holmes, the 16th best prospect in the A\’s\’ system, had a 3.23 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 86.1 innings for AA and AAA, but mainly AA. He had a 1.216 WHIP.
       Catchers
Sean Murphy is the top catching prospect in baseball, and the 33rd best prospect out of all positions. Murphy, now 25, debuted last year. In 20 games, Murphy had a .245 average, an .899 OPS and four home runs. Of the six catchers to play for the A\’s last year, Murphy is the only one still on the team. Austin Allen, acquired from San Diego for Jurickson Profar in the offseason, is the favorite for the back-up job. Allen had a .559 OPS in 34 games. Non-roster invitee Carlos Perez is also an option. He did not appear in a major league game last year, but he\’s played in 212 over his career.
       Infielders
The Atheltics have two corner infielders who are great defenders and hitters. Matt Chapman, who is loved in the analytics community, hit 36 home runs with 91 RBIs last year, plus an OPS of .848. Chapman had 36 more at-bats than he had in 2018, but had seven less hits. Chapman has an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph, and 14 outs above average at third base. At first base is Matt Olson, who could be even better than Chapman. Like Chapman, Olson hit 36 home runs with 91 RBIs, but he played in less games due to a hand injury sustained when the team played in Japan last March. Olson had 12 outs above average. Last year, Semien was the best Athletics infielder, finishing 3rd in AL MVP voting. Semien hit 33 home runs with 10 stolen bases, a .285 average, and an OPS of .892. Semien\’s defense has improved over the years, but he still had a weak -4 outs above average. Semien had a .601 slugging against fastballs. Chad Pinder is more of an outfielder, but he can start at second base because the A\’s don\’t have a better solution after trading away Profar. Pinder hit 13 home runs with a .240 average in a utility role. Pinder had an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph. Franklin Barreto is also in the running at second. Barreto is fast, with a 28.8 ft/s sprint speed. He has a career OPS of just .598. Barreto is the only remaining player acquired in the awful Josh Donaldson trade from November 2014. Rule 5 pick Vimael Machin stole eight bases with a .295 average and an .802 OPS. He is also in the second base race.
       Outfielders
Ramon Laureano, who has made great throws in center field reminding A\’s fans of a young Yoenis Cespedes, had a breakout offensive season. Laureano hit 24 home runs with 13 stolen bases, a .288 average and an OPS of .860. Laureano hit .338 against fastballs. Stephen Piscotty had a great first season in Oakland, with 27 home runs and an .821 OPS. He struggled in year two, with 13 bombs and an OPS of .720. Injury issues led to Piscotty playing in just 93 games. Mark Canha could start in left field after a career season. Canha hit 26 home runs in 126 games, with a .273 average and .913 OPS. Canha had two outs above average at both right and left field each. Khris Davis did not have a batting average of .247 for the first time since 2014. He had a big down year, with 23 home runs, a .220 average and a .679 OPS. His average exit velocity dropped by 2.4 miles per hour, down to 90.1. Robbie Grossman returns as the 4th outfielder. In his first season in Oakland, Grossman hit six home runs with nine stolen bases and a .240 average. Grossman does not strikeout often (17.8 K%) and walks a lot (12.2% BB%). Tony Kemp, a teammate of Fiers on the scandalous 2017 Astros, can play second base and the outfield, like Pinder. Kemp hit eight home runs with four stolen bases and a .671 OPS for Houston and the Cubs last year. Kemp has a career average exit velocity of just 83.5 mph.
       Projected Opening Day Lineup
SS Marcus Semien (R)
3B Matt Chapman (R)
1B Matt Olson (L)
DH Khris Davis (R)
LF Mark Canha (R)
RF Stephen Piscotty (R)
CF Ramon Laureano (R)
C Sean Murphy (R)
2B Chad Pinder (R)
       Projected Rotation
Sean Manaea (L)
Mike Fiers (R)
Frankie Montas (R)
AJ Puk (L)
Jesus Luzardo (L)
       Projected Bullpen
Liam Hendriks, closer (R)
Yusmeiro Petit (R)
Joakim Soria (R)
Lou Trivino (R)
Jake Diekman (L)
JB Wendelken (R)
Chris Bassitt (R)
Burch Smith (R)
TJ McFarland (L)
Paul Blackburn (R)
Grant Holmes (R)
       Projected Bench
C Austin Allen (L)
IF Franklin Barreto (R)
IF Vimael Machin (L)
OF Robbie Grossman (S)
2B/OF Tony Kemp (L)
Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats
58-39 record, 1st in AL West
Most home runs: Marcus Semien (25)
Highest batting average: Ramon Laureano (.280)
Highest OPS: Marcus Semien (.875)
Best ERA, starters: Sean Manaea (3.23)
Best ERA, relievers:Yusmeiro Petit (32)
Most innings pitched: Sean Manaea (136.1)
Most strikeouts: Jesus Luzardo (131)
Best K/9: Jake Diekman (14.1)
Record through 60 games, last five seasons:
2019: 30-30
2018: 31-29
2017: 26-34
2016: 25-35
2015: 23-37
       Prediction
The A\’s are a big second-half team. They have struggled to start off years, and make the playoffs after a big push at the end. The bullpen is not at all deep, the rotation is too young with only two starters that aren\’t wild cards in Manaea and Fiers. The lineup is good but not as good as teams like the Angels, Yankees, Twins and even the Indians. I predict a fall for the Athletics, finishing 4th in the AL West in 2020.

New York Yankees 2020 Season Preview

       2020 was both a nightmare and a dream for the Yankees at times. As everyone knows, the injuries were out of control. Only two players in the Opening Day lineup played in at least 120 games, and of the two starters with at least 30 starts, they had a combined 4.67 ERA. While the bullpen was able to hold down the fort, the Yankees saw multiple back-up players thrive as GM Brian Cashman once again showed off his ability to get great players out of nothing. But, Cashman did something more special to Yankee fans this offseason, a Christmas gift worth $325 million.
       Offseason additions: RHP Gerrit Cole, C Chris Iannetta, RHP Dan Otero, LHP Luis Avilan, IF Matt Duffy, UT Rosell Herrera, RHP Nick Tropeano, RHP Tony Zych, OF Zack Granite, C Josh Thole.
       Offseason subtractions: SS Didi Gregorius, 1B Edwin Encarnacion, LHP CC Sabathia, RHP Dellin Betances, OF Cameron Maybin, C Austin Romine, LHP Nestor Cortes Jr., RHP Cory Gearrin, LHP Stephen Tarpley, RHP Chance Adams, 1B Greg Bird.
       Rotation
The rotation was the main issue for the Yankees last year, with Luis Severino hurt almost all year, and JA Happ and Masahiro Tanaka struggling. But, the Yankees went all-in to get themselves an ace, signing Cy Young runner-up and former rival Gerrit Cole to a monster nine year, $325 million deal. Was it an overpay? Sure. Do the Yankees need Cole? Absolutely. Cole lost out to Houston teammate Justin Verlander in Cy Young voting, although he probably should have won. He had a 2.50 ERA with 326 strikeouts and a 13.8 K/9, all leading the league. The 2011 first overall pick, Cole\’s fastball velocity averaged 97.1 mph while pitching in 212.1 innings. The pitch had an average against of just .166. The Yankees will be without Severino once again, as he had Tommy John surgery, just like rival Red Sox pitcher Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard from the crosstown Mets. That leaves James Paxton as the number two starter. A free agent at the end of the season (along with Masahiro Tanaka), Paxton had a 3.82 ERA, the worst of his career (minimum 15 starts) with 186 strikeouts in 150.2 innings. Paxton has still never pitched in 162 innings in a season, which would qualify him for an ERA title. Paxton\’s 11.1 K/9 was the best among Yankee starters. Masahiro Tanaka is recovering from a concussion after being hit by a Giancarlo Stanton rocket during batting practice. He will hopefully make the Opening Day roster. Tanaka struck out 149 batters in 182 innings with a 4.45 ERA over 32 games. His K/9 dropped from 9.2 in 2018 to 7.4. Tanaka has depended more on his slider and less on his split finger, the latter a pitch that allowed a .261 average last year, the worst BA it has allowed in Tanaka\’s MLB career. After bringing back JA Happ, the pitcher who faced them in the 2009 World Series, the Yankees saw Happ have his worst season since 2011, finishing with a 4.91 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 161.1 innings, coming two outs away from qualifying. Happ allowed 34 home runs, seven more than his previous career high, with 25 of the long-balls off of his fastball. The Yankees utilized Chad Green and others as an opener, so they could go that route, or they could go with Jordan Montgomery as their fifth starter. After recovering from Tommy John surgery and facing multiple setbacks, Montgomery finally made his season debut in September, striking out five and allowing three runs in four innings over two outings. In his 37 game (36 starts) career, Montgomery has a 3.91 ERA with 172 strikeouts in 186.2 innings. He does not pitch deep into games. In 29 starts in his rookie season (and only full season), Montgomery threw his curveball 26.1% of the time (more than any other pitch), and it struck out 73 batters with a .175 average against.
       Bullpen
The Yankees will be without closer Aroldis Chapman for at least the first couple of games after his positive COVID test on Saturday. Chapman pitched in 60 games last year, his most since 2015. He had a 2.21 ERA with 37 saves and 85 strikeouts in 57 games. While his fastball velocity is down to a still potent 98 miles an hour, Chapman has stayed elite thanks to the development of his slider. The pitch had an average against of .159 with 41 strikeouts. Zack Britton will likely be the closer until Chapman returns. Britton, who in 2016 had one of the best seasons ever for a reliever, with a 0.54 ERA, had his best season since in 2019. He had a 1.91 ERA with 53 strikeouts and three saves in 61.1 innings. Britton threw his sinker 86.4% of the time in 2019, leading to a 76.7 ground ball percentage. The Yankees used Tommy Kahnle often against left handed batters, even though he is right handed. It worked, thanks to Kahnle\’s change-up, a fast pitch (90 miles per hour on average) with very little spin (1483 rpm). Thrown 307 times to lefties, his change-up had a .208 slugging against. Overall, Kahnle struck out 88 batters in 61.1 innings with a 3.67 ERA. Adam Ottavino, who grew up a Yankees fan, had an amazing first season in New York although he burned out by the playoffs. Ottavino had a career best 1.90 ERA with 88 Ks in 66.1 innings. Ottavino throws a slider with a 2877 rpm spin rate nearly half of the time. Chad Green\’s final numbers look bad, but it is all because of the first month of the season, where Green had a 16.43 ERA after 10 outings, earning himself a demotion to AAA. Green improved when he returned, making 15 starts as an opener plus 29 out of the bullpen (not counting his original 10). Overall, Green had a 4.17 ERA with 98 strikeouts in 69 innings. Green does allow hard contact though, with an average exit velocity against of 91.5 mph last year, and 90.1 mph in his career. Jonathan Holder earned manager Aaron Boone\’s trust in Boone\’s first year of 2018, when Holder had a 3.14 ERA in 66 innings. Injuries and overall bad play took that away, as Holder\’s ERA slipped to 6.31 with 46 strikeouts in 41.1 innings. In 2018, Holder allowed hard contact 28.6% of the time. Luis Cessa found success when moved to the bullpen full-time. A former starter, Cessa was able to pitch multiple innings in one game. He struck out 75 batters over 81 innings with a 4.11 ERA. Cessa\’s slider had an improved whiff rate of 40.7%. Jonathan Loaisiga will likely make the team in a similar role as Cessa, and he can also be the bulk pitcher after an opener. In 15 games (four starts), Loaisiga had a 4.55 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 31.2 innings. Loaisiga\’s fastball had an average velocity of 96.8 mph. David Hale was a nice surprise out of the bullpen and is back on a minor league deal. Hale had a 3.11 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. Hale allowed an average exit velocity of 86.2 miles per hour. Michael King is ranked as the Yankee\’s 25th best prospect, per MLB Pipeline. He made his MLB debut at the very end of the 2019 season, pitching in two innings and not allowing a run with one strikeout. King was hurt for most of 2019, and he had a 4.18 ERA in four games (three starts) at AAA. In 2018 for High-A, AA and AAA, King had a 1.79 ERA with 152 strikeouts in 161.1 innings. Ben Heller returned from Tommy John at the end of the year, allowing one run in 7.1 innings. In his MLB career, Heller has a 2.49 ERA with 24 Ks in 25.1 innings. Instead of Heller, the Yankees might go with a lefty like Luis Avilan or Tyler Lyons. Avilan is a veteran who had a 5.06 ERA in 32 innings for the Mets last year. Lyons was a September call-up that made the playoff roster after striking out 12 in 8.2 innings with the Yanks.
       Catchers
Gary Sanchez has become known for his power at catcher and his awful defense. He improved behind the plate, and hit a career high 34 home runs, the most for a Yankees catcher (breaking his 2017 record of 33). He also had an .841 OPS. Sanchez had a barrel percentage of 19.1%. Kyle Higashioka has been the third catcher over the last three seasons, and with Austin Romine leaving for Detroit, he gets a chance to become the back-up. Higashioka hit 20 home runs with a .929 OPS. He will have to beat out Chris Iannetta for the spot. A 14 year old veteran, Iannetta has a career .751 OPS.
       Infielders
Although he only played in 118 games, Luke Voit was more healthy than fellow infielders Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar and Greg Bird. He didn\’t keep up his 1.095 OPS from the end of 2018, but I don\’t think he was expected to. Voit had a .263 average and an .842 OPS with 21 home runs and a 13.9 BB%. DJ LeMahieu was a very pleasant surprise, finishing 4th in MVP voting while playing 1st, 2nd and 3rd base. LeMahieu hit .327 with an .893 OPS, five stolen bases and a career high 26 home runs. He had six combined outs above average. Gleyber Torres had a great second season, making the all-star team again, and leading the team with 38 home runs. Torres had a .278 average and an OPS of .871. Now adjusting to being a full-time shortstop, his position in the minors, Torres had a .618 slugging against fastballs. Gio Urshela was another great surprise, as he was a defense-only guy when he was called up, and then finished the season with a .314 average plus an .889 OPS, with 21 home runs. Urshela\’s even 0 outs above average does not do him justice. Urshela\’s great play hurt Miguel Andujar, who played in just 12 games with a .271 OPS after being the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up (and should have won) in 2018. Andujar, who is not great at third base, and is trying out the outfield, has decent speed, with a 28.1 ft/s sprint speed. Tyler Wade can play the outfield as well as the infield. Wade rose his OPS from .588 to .692 in September. Mike Ford and Thairo Estrada are in a battle for the final spot. Estrada\’s main advantage is his defensive versatility, as he can play second and third base, as well as shortstop, while Ford is mainly a first baseman. Estrada hit .250 with three home runs and four stolen bases in 35 games last year. Ford hit 12 home runs with a .909 OPS, plus a 91.9 mph average exit velocity. Rosell Herrera, a utility infielder who spent last year on the Marlins and is fast, is a dark horse contender for the final spot.
       Outfielders
Aaron Judge is a top-10 MLB player, if not top-5. He just cannot stay healthy. Judge has been injured in both 2018 and 2019, and either way, has not hit home runs at the rate he did in his rookie season of 2017, when he hit 52. Judge has hit 27 home runs in both 2018 and 2019. Last year, he had a .272 batting average with a .921 OPS. Judge hits the ball absurdly hard, for an average exit velocity of 95.9 mph, and a 57.1 hard hit %. Judge also had a 20.2 barrel percentage. He is a very good defender with eight outs above average, and a 28.2 ft/s sprint speed. Judge has injury issues, and is currently out with a stiff neck, although he should be fine. The other slugger in the outfield, Giancarlo Stanton, just cannot stay healthy as well. Three separate injuries left Stanton playing in just 18 games last year, hitting three home runs with an .894 OPS. He has a career average exit velocity of 93.4 mph. Stanton has a 162 game average of 43 homers in his career. Aaron Hicks is very inconsistent at times, but the highs are very good. Hicks played in just 59 games last year, hitting 12 home runs with a .769 OPS. In 2017 and 2018 combined, Hicks hit 42 home runs with 21 stolen bases and a .255 average. Brett Gardner returned on another one year deal. Almost 37 years of age, Gardner hit a career high 28 home runs last year. He stole 10 bases and had an .829 OPS. He still has great speed, with a 28.9 ft/s sprint speed last campaign. Mike Tauchman had a very underrated season, his first in New York. He hit 13 home runs with six stolen bases, a .277 average and an OPS of .865. Tauchman had nine outs above average, with six of them in left field. Clint Frazier is a very talented hitter, with 12 home runs and an .806 OPS in 69 games last year, but attitude and defensive issues (-13 OAA last season) will likely hurt his chance at the Opening Day roster.
       Projected Opening Day Lineup
2B DJ LeMahieu (R)
RF Aaron Judge (R)
SS Gleyber Torres (R)
DH Giancarlo Stanton (R)
C Gary Sanchez (R)
CF Aaron Hicks (S)
1B Luke Voit (R)
3B Gio Urshela (R)
LF Brett Gardner (L)
       Projected Rotation
Gerrit Cole (R)
James Paxton (L)
Masahiro Tanaka (R)
JA Happ (L)
Jordan Montgomery (L)
       Projected Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman, closer (L)
Zack Britton (L)
Tommy Kahnle (R)
Adam Ottavino (R)
Chad Green (R)
Jonathan Holder (R)
Luis Cessa (R)
Jonathan Loaisiga (R)
David Hale (R)
Tyler Lyons (L)
Michael King (R)
       Projected Bench
C Kyle Higashioka (R)
UT Tyler Wade (L)
1B Mike Ford (L)
3B/OF Miguel Andujar (R)
OF Mike Tauchman (L)
Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats
59-36 record, 1st in AL East
Most home runs: Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres (25)
Highest batting average: Mike Tauchman (.315)
Highest OPS: Mike Tauchman (.961)
Best ERA, starters: Gerrit Cole (3.09)
Best ERA, relievers: Aroldis Chapman (1.89)
Most innings pitched: Gerrit Cole (131.0)
Most strikeouts: Gerrit Cole (171)
Best K/9: Aroldis Chapman (14.6)
Record through 60 games, last five seasons:
2019: 38-22
2018: 41-19
2017: 37-23
2016: 30-30
2015: 33-27
       Prediction
The Yankees are really good. After snaging Cole from Houston, they are probably now the best team in the American League. They definitely won\’t be healthy, but if the are, the lineup is the best in the division, and Brian Cashman is so good at his job that he could probably find someone else that can surprise everyone and be good. The rotation looks better with Cole, and the bullpen is still amazing. The Yankees will win the AL East in 2020, but lose to the Braves in the World Series.

How Monday Could Be the Most Important Non-Gameday for 3 NHL Teams in Years

       If you are a fan of 28 of the 31 NHL teams, tomorrow, July 13th, is just another normal day in the hockey world, as teams train and get ready to play in the playoffs in either Edmonton or Toronto. However, if you are a fan of the Minnesota Wild, Montreal Canadiens or New York Islanders, Monday is not normal at all. These three teams stand out, because they all have top prospects in the KHL with expiring deals that have a short window to come over. Starting on Monday at noon and ending Wednesday at 5:00 pm ET, the Habs, Wild and Isles will all scramble to get a deal done that they have been wanting to happen for years.
       The main problem for Alexander Romanov, Kirill Kaprizov and Ilya Sorokin was that they were not allowed to play in the playoffs starting this August. That would normally mean that they would sign an entry level contract, not burn a year and then play under that deal next year, earning under $1 million. Romanov, Kaprizov and Sorokin would much rather play, burn the year off the deal, and become an RFA in the offseason, and sign a deal for more than $1 million, and potentially in the $3-4 million range. While the teams that own their rights (Montreal has Romanov, Minnesota has Kaprizov and New York owns the rights to Sorokin) would be fine with that, the NHL\’s roadblock was hurting them, and would lead to the players staying in the KHL. Luckily for everyone, except for rival fans, that all changed when the new CBA deal was agreed on July 6th. That made it possible for these players to sign, burn the year on their entry level deal, and not play, and still become an RFA next year. We found out today that these players could also practice with the team, but still cannot play.
       Romanov, Kaprizov and Sorokin all were not high draft picks, but have become top prospects because of their play in the KHL. All playing different positions, Romanov is the defenseman. A more defensive defenseman and ranked by many as the third best prospect of the group (despite being drafted the highest), Romanov had seven points (all assists) in 43 games with a +21 rating for CSKA Moscow. The 38th overall pick in 2018, the 20 year old will be welcomed to Montreal, and the team announced late Sunday night that he would join the club.
       Kaprizov, who turned 23 in April, became a point-per-game player in the KHL for the first time in his career in 2019-20. Drafted 135th overall (5th round) in 2015, Kaprizov was ranked as the 6th best drafted prospect in the NHL by The Athletic\’s Scott Wheeler (who has another ranking that will be mentioned when we get to Sorokin). In 57 games as Romanov\’s teammate on CSKA Moscow (there is a slight chance we might have another CSKA Moscow player mentioned later), Kaprizov scored 33 goals with 29 assists for 62 points in 57 games. In his three seasons since joining CSKA Moscow, Kaprizov has scored 78 goals with 75 points for 153 points in 160 games, plus a +88 rating.
       Sorokin, also known as \”The White Whale\” to Islander fans, has been known as the best goalie outside of the NHL to many people for the last couple of years. Like his friend and hopefully his future rival Igor Shesterkin, Sorokin was a star goalie in the KHL before wanting to come to the NHL. Shesterkin had a great NHL debut for the Rangers in \’19-\’20, playing in 12 games. Sorokin, ranked as The Athletic\’s best goalie prospect, had a 1.50 GAA with a .935 SV% in 40 games for once again, CSKA Moscow. In four playoff games, Sorokin allowed just three goals on 89 shots, for a .73 GAA (he also had four assists in two games, despite not having an assist in the regular season). In parts of six seasons for CSKA Moscow, Sorokin\’s worst GAA is 1.61 and his worst SV% is .929, numbers that would earn him a Vezina Trophy if he repeated them in the NHL. Sorokin had 43 regular season shutouts for the team as well. Still just 24 (until early August), the 78th overall pick (3rd round) in 2014 can wreak havoc in the National Hockey League.

New York Mets 2020 Season Preview

From CNN
       Mets fans just cannot catch a break. Last year, new GM Brodie van Wagenen dealt top prospect Jarred Kelenic to Seattle for Robinson Cano, and Edwin Diaz, who both under-performed. After campaigning for manager Mickey Callaway to get fired all season long, the supporters were elated when former Met, 20 year MLB veteran and future Hall-of-Famer Carlos Beltran was hired as skipper. Well, then the details of the Astros sign stealing scandal were released. Beltran, who in 2017 was a 40 year old in his last season in the MLB, playing for the World Series winning Astros, was an instrumental piece in Houston\’s scandal as a player, and lead to the Mets parting ways with Beltran before he managed a single game. The Mets pivoted, hiring Luis Rojas, the son of former player and manager Felipe Alou (in a very confusing way). At age 38, Rojas has already been in the Mets organization for 13 years, and is very respected among the players. To make things better for fans, the much-hated Wilpons, the owners of the team, will likely sell soon, with billionaire Steve Cohen rumored to be the most likely to purchase the club. The Mets are still very talented, but they do have some holes to cover up.
       Offseason additions: RHP Dellin Betances, RHP Rick Porcello, OF Jake Marisnick, RHP Michael Wacha, RHP Jared Hughes, OF Melky Cabrera, IF Eduardo Nunez, 1B Matt Adams, RHP Hunter Strickland, LHP Chasen Shreve, OF Jarrett Parker, OF Ryan Cordell, IF Max Moroff, LHP Stephen Gonsalves.
       Offseason subtractions: RHP Zack Wheeler, IF Todd Frazier, OF Juan Lagares, IF Joe Panik, OF Carlos Gomez, LHP Luis Avilan, RHP Chris Mazza, RHP Drew Gagnon, RHP Jacob Rhame.
       Rotation
Going into 2019, a big question was if Jacob deGrom could match his 1.70 ERA, 269 strikeout 2018 season, when he won his first Cy Young. Did deGrom match his stats? No, that wouldn\’t be possible. However, deGrom did the next best thing, winning his second consecutive Cy Young award in 2019, with a 2.43 ERA and a National League leading 255 strikeouts in 204 innings, plus a .971 WHIP. deGrom was one of many Mets starters last year with a hard fastball, averaging 96.9 mph last year. However, Zack Wheeler left for the Phillies, and Noah Syndergaard won\’t play in 2020. \”Thor\” had Tommy John surgery early into to the shutdown, ending his 2020 before it started. Syndergaard\’s injury and Wheeler leaving makes the Marcus Stroman deal look better. The Mets acquired Toronto\’s former ace, who will be a free agent after 2020, at the trade deadline in 2019. Stroman, who at the time had a 2.96 ERA, wasn\’t as good in Flushing, with a 3.77 ERA in 11 starts. Overall, Stroman struck out 159 batters in 184.1 innings with a 3.22 ERA. Stroman had a career best 4.1 barrel percentage, with a 35.2 hard hit percentage. Steven Matz, who as Mets fans have likely heard millions of times – although not as much as a certain Todd Frazier fact (did you know he won the Little League World Series and stood next to Derek Jeter as a kid?) – is from Long Island, found a way to stay healthy. Matz struggled to start the season, with a 4.95 ERA after 16 starts, which lead to Matz being moved to the bullpen for two outings. Matz did improve, finishing with a respectable 4.21 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 160.1 innings. Thanks to using a sinker over half of the time, Matz has forced grounds balls 50.4% of the time in his career. Rick Porcello, a pitcher with the wildest career (perfect for the Mets), signed a one year deal. Porcello has won a Cy Young award, has lead the league in both wins and losses (in different seasons), allowed the most hits in a season twice, and has nine complete games since the start of 2014. The two constants for Porcello is that he has started at least 30 games in eight of his 11 seasons (the other three seasons saw Porcello start 27, 28 and 29 games) and that he doesn\’t strike out many batters. In 2019, Porcello had a career worst 5.52 ERA with 143 strikeouts in 174.1 innings. Porcello throws a slow curveball with a spin rate of 2810 rpm. The Mets also brought Michael Wacha on-board. Still only 29, Wacha had a 4.76 ERA with 104 strikeouts in 126.2 innings. Wacha\’s fastball was crushed, allowing 16 home runs with a .324 average.
       Bullpen
The Mets\’ big issue is their bullpen. Only three relievers that pitched in at least five games had an ERA under 4.00. The most-documented issue was with their closer, the newly-acquired Edwin Diaz. After a 1.96 ERA in his final season with Seattle, Diaz\’s ERA rose up to 5.56. Also, after a league leading 57 saves in 2018, Diaz closed out just 26 games, and blew seven saves. The silver lining was that Diaz struck out 99 batters in 58 innings, for a career high 15.4 K/9. Diaz allowed 15 home runs, an increase of 10 compared to his 20l8 final. One of the three pitchers with an ERA under 4.00 in the pen is Seth Lugo. Lugo, in his second season as a reliever, struck out a career high 104 batters in 80 innings, with a 2.70 ERA. Lugo has a ridiculous 3285 rpm spin rate on his curveball. He also had a .183 xBA against. Lefty Justin Wilson, who has closed out games before, had a 2.54 ERA with four saves and 44 strikeouts in 39 innings. Wilson\’s cutter had a slugging against of .246. Another former Yankee, Dellin Betances, embodied the 2019 Yankees pretty well, as he was hurt up until September, and tore his achillies in his first game of the season. In 2018, Betances struck out 115 batters in 66.2 innings with a 2.70 ERA in 2018. Betances struck out at least 100 batters in each year from 2014 to 2018. Jeurys Familia returned after being dealt to Oakland midway through 2018. He was even worse than Diaz, with a 5.70 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 60 innings. The guy who saved 94 games between 2015 and 2016 for the Mets walked 42 batters for an insane 6.3 BB/9. Robert Gsellman, who was the team\’s closer when Familia was gone in 2018, saving 13 games, had a 4.66 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Gsellman allowed an average exit velocity of just 85.3 mph. Brad Brach, the third and final pitcher with an ERA of under 4.00 in New York, only got there because of his awful season with the Cubs. Brach had a 6.13 ERA in Chicago before joining the Mets. Overall, Brach had a 5.47 ERA with 60 Ks in 54.1 innings. Brach mantained his 4% barrel percentage. The Mets signed Jared Hughes after Houston released him. He appeared in 72 games for the Reds and Phillies last year, with a 4.04 ERA, but just 54 strikeouts. He has recorded a save in four consecutive seasons, but has only 12 in his career. With a career 2.88 ERA, Hughes\’ curveball has a very low 2074 rpm spin rate. Stephen Gonsalves, once a top-100 prospect, was claimed off of waivers from the Twins. He missed most of last year with an elbow injury. In seven minor league seasons, Gonsalves has a 2.50 ERA with 655 strikeouts in 612 innings over 121 games (114 starts). Paul Sewald has had a middle relief role for the Mets over the last three seasons. In 19.2 innings last year, Sewald had a 4.58 ERA with 22 strikeouts. Sewald\’s fastball had a .200 average against last year. Hunter Strickland has a chance to win out a spot from swingman Walker Lockett. A two-time World Series champ, including last year with the Nationals, Strickland is a non-roster invitee. He has a 3.16 ERA with 21 saves in his six year career. Strickland\’s fastball averaged 95.9 miles per hour.
      Catchers
Wilson \”Buffalo\” Ramos signed a two year deal before 2019. In his first year for the Mets, Ramos hit .288 with 14 home runs for a .768 OPS. Ramos\’ K rate was slashed by six percent, down to 13.2% last year. He had an average exit velocity of 90.0 mph last year. Tomas Nido took over the back-up catcher job after Travis d\’Arnaud was cut early in the year. Nido hit four home runs with a .191 average last year. Nido is quick to second base, with an average pop time of 1.93 seconds.
       Infielders
It did not take Pete Alonso long to become the face of the Mets, even over Jacob deGrom. Alonso was so good in Spring that the Mets decided to not wait until six weeks in to the season for Alonso to be called up, and had him on the team on Opening Day. Playing in all but one game, Alonso hit a league leading 53 home runs, breaking Aaron Judge\’s rookie record by one to snag Rookie of the Year. Alonso had a .941 OPS, with a 90.6 miles per hour average exit velocity. He isn\’t a great defender, with -7 outs above average. The Mets acquired Robinson Cano with Edwin Diaz, and he still has four years left on his deal. Now 37, Cano hit 13 home runs with a .256 average and a .736 OPS. The eight time all-star has an .843 career OPS. Cano had a 90.8 mph exit velocity. Cano will either play second base or DH, depending on if Yoenis Cespedes plays or not. If Cano is the designated hitter, then Jeff McNeil will play second. The \”Flying Squirrel\” had a great first full season, with a .318 average, 23 home runs and five stolen bases, plus a .916 OPS and appearances at second and third base, plus both corner outfield spots. McNeil could start at third. McNeil struck out just 13.2% of the time. Shortstop and former top prospect Amed Rosario had a progressive season. Although he was caught stealing a league leading 10 times, Rosario hit 15 home runs with 19 steals, a .287 average and a .755 OPS. Rosario had a 29.2 ft/s sprint speed. Dominic Smith can play the corner outfield spots, but is mainly a first baseman. Smith hit 11 home runs with a .282 average and an .881 OPS in 89 games. Smith had a .582 slugging versus fastballs. While it is the sad reality, Jed Lowrie should probably start the season on the bench. After playing just nine games (and going 0-for-7), Lowrie has a lot of pressure on him to be healthy. He was an all-star in 2018, with an .801 OPS and a career high 23 home runs and 99 RBIs for Oakland.
       Outfielders
The Mets\’ entire lineup depends on Yoenis Cespedes\’ health. Cepedes missed all of 2019, and played in just 38 games in 2018, plus 81 in 2017. In his career, Cespedes has a .274 average with an OPS of .821, plus a 162 game average of 32 home runs. Cespedes will likely only DH. Former 10th overall pick Michael Conforto hit a career high 33 home runs with an .856 OPS, plus seven stolen bases. Conforto had seven outs above average in right field. After a great 2018 where he posted a .404 OBP, Brandon Nimmo was limited to just 69 games last year. Nimmo hit eight home runs with a .783 OPS. Nimmo had an inflated walk rate of 18.1%. The Mets moved JD Davis, normally a third baseman, to left field. Davis broke out, with 22 home runs, a .307 average and an OPS of .895. Davis hit the ball hard, with a 91.4 mph average exit velocity. The Mets acquired Jake Marisnick from the Astros, the same team that JD Davis used to play for. Marisnick is a great defender and pinch runner, with eight outs above average and a 29.2 ft/s sprint speed last year. At the plate, Marisnick is okay, hitting 10 home runs with a .233 average and a .700 OPS last year. Melky Cabrera has an outside chance at the Opening Day roster. Cabrera had a .280 average and a .285 career average, and could reach 2000 hits this if he makes the team.
       Projected Opening Day Lineup
3B Jeff McNeil (L)
CF Brandon Nimmo (L)
1B Pete Alonso (R)
RF Michael Conforto (L)
DH Yoenis Cespedes (R)
LF JD Davis (R)
2B Robinson Cano (L)
C Wilson Ramos (R)
SS Amed Rosario (R)
       Projected Rotation
Jacob deGrom (R)
Marcus Stroman (R)
Steven Matz (L)
Rick Porcello (R)
Michael Wacha (R)
       Projected Bullpen
Edwin Diaz, closer (R)
Seth Lugo (R)
Dellin Betances (R)
Justin Wilson (L)
Jeurys Familia (R)
Robert Gsellman (R)
Brad Brach (R)
Jared Hughes (R)
Stephen Gonsalves (L)
Paul Sewald (R)
Hunter Strickland (R)
       Projected Bench
C Tomas Nido (R)
1B Dominic Smith (L)
IF Jed Lowrie (S)
OF Jake Marisnick (R)
OF Melky Cabrera (S)
Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats
43-53 record, 4th in NL East
Most home runs: Pete Alonso (31)
Highest batting average: Jeff McNeil (.279)
Highest OPS: Pete Alonso (.884)
Best ERA, starters: Jacob deGrom (3.07)
Best ERA, relievers: Edwin Diaz (1.72)
Most innings: Jacob deGrom (132.0)
Most strikeouts: Jacob deGrom (160)
Best K/9: Edwin Diaz (13.0)
Record through 60 games, last five seasons:
2019: 28-32
2018: 27-33
2017: 27-33
2016: 34-26
2015: 31-29
       Prediction
The Mets have a really good lineup. Alonso, McNeil, Davis and Ramos brought fresh faces to the lineup last year, to aid Nimmo, Conforto, and hopefully now Cespedes. Their old strongpoint, their rotation, is worse, with just deGrom and Stroman really worthy of their spots. The bullpen is weak, but guys like Betances and a bounce back for Diaz and Familia could really rejuvenate the squad. However, playing tough teams like the Braves, Nationals, Yankees, Rays and Phillies will hurt the Mets. I predict they will miss the playoffs, but no more than 1.5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card spot.

Minnesota Twins 2020 Season Preview

       My pre-season picks are always terrible. A lot of the time I pick the favorites to win, because, they normally do. However, there was one thing from last year that I was proud of, and that was my pick for the Twins to win the AL Central. Was I expecting a 101 win season? Probably not. Was I predicting five different 30-home run hitters and three more with at least 20? No. However, I got one surprise pick right, and I am happy with that. About the Twins, the team you clicked on this article to read about, they have a potent lineup, with the Bomba Squad still intact, but the pitching staff, especially the rotation, needs improvements, and quick.

       Offseason additions: 3B Josh Donaldson, RHP Kenta Maeda, LHP Rich Hill, RHP Tyler Clippard, C Alex Avila, RHP Homer Bailey, RHP Cory Gearrin, RHP Matt Wisler, RHP Jhoulys Chacin, LHP Danny Coulombe.

       Offseason subtractions: RHP Kyle Gibson, 1B CJ Cron, 2B Jonathan Schoop, C Jason Castro, LHP Martin Perez, RHP Ryne Harper, RHP Sam Dyson, RHP Kohl Stewart, RHP Brusdar Graterol, RHP Trevor Hildenberger, IF Ronald Torreyes.

       Rotation
Jose Berrios made his second consecutive all-star team, and finished with a career best 3.68 ERA and 200.1 innings. He struck out less batters than normal (195), and saw a .7 drop in K/9 from 2018 to 2019. Berrios had a rough end to the season, raising his ERA from 2.80 on July 31st to 3.68 in his last 10 starts. Berrios has a career exit velocity against of 86.4 mph. Jake Odorizzi, now 30 years of age, had a career season, making his first all-star team, with a 3.51 ERA and a career high 178 strikeouts in 159 innings. An issue with Odorizzi is that he averaged about 5.1 innings per start, leading to Odorizzi not qualifying for the ERA title despite making 30 starts. The pitch that got Odorizzi the most swing and misses was, oddly enough, his fastball. The pitch had a 30.8% whiff rate. Michael Pineda will miss the first 36 games of the season after being suspended late last year (PEDs). In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, Pineda had a 4.01 ERA with 140 strikeouts in 146 innings. \”Big Mike\”, standing six-feet and seven-inches tall, has seen a 2.1 miles per hour drop in fastball velocity since 2016. Kenta Maeda was acquired from the Dodgers in an awkward deal that was originally part of the Mookie Betts trade but ended up being separate. Maeda struck out 169 batters in 153.2 innings with a 4.04 ERA last year. In his four year MLB career, Maeda has a 3.87 ERA. Still, Maeda had a career best 3.26 xERA last year. The shutdown will allow Rich Hill to return from an elbow injury. Now 40 years-old, Hill can still strike batters out, with 72 Ks in 58.2 innings for L.A. last year, with a 2.45 ERA. Hill has a K/9 of at least 10.2 in every season since 2013. The Twins will be Hill\’s ninth team. Hill allows really soft contact (84.6 miles per hour exit velocity and a 27.7 hard hit %) and still puts great spin on the ball, with a 2919 rpm spin rate on his curveball. The Twins signed Homer Bailey as well to bring in another veteran presence. Bailey had a 4.57 ERA with 149 strikeouts in 163.1 innings for the Royals and A\’s last year, the latter two categories being his best since 2013. Bailey\’s improvement was thanks to a split finger, a pitch with a batting average against of .182. Randy Dobnak received national attention after randomly getting the start in Game 2 of the ALDS, and also being a former Uber driver. In his first nine games (five starts), Dobnak had a 1.59 ERA with 23 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. The veteran additions will likely push the 25 year old out of the rotation. Jhoulys Chacin could make the team out of the bullpen. The Brewers\’ ace in 2018 after making a league-leading 35 starts with a 3.50 ERA, Chacin found himself getting released after he had a 5.79 ERA in 19 starts. That rose to 6.01 after a stint in Boston. Overall, Chacin had 101 strikeouts in 103.1 innings. Chacin\’s hard hit percentage has rose by 14.1% since 2017.

       Bullpen
Taylor Rogers took over the closer role from Blake Parker, who didn\’t finish the season with the team. Rogers, who can pitch multiple innings if needed, had a 2.61 ERA with 90 strikeouts and a WHIP of exactly 1.000, plus 30 saves in 69 innings. Rogers\’ curveball, a pitch thrown less than 15% of the time, is deadly, with a .043 average against and a lot of horizontal movement. The Twins acquired Sergio Romo mid-season from Miami, where he was the closer. Romo had three saves in Minnesota to put his season total up to 20, marking the 4th time he\’s hit that mark in a season. In 22.2 innings for the Twins, Romo struck out 27 with a 3.18 ERA. Romo allowed hard contact just 23.5% of the time, which was the best in the league (minimum 150 batted balls allowed). Trevor May, an ex-starter who has had issues in the past with staying on the field, pitched in a career high 65 games last year, with a 2.94 ERA and 79 Ks in 64.1 innings. May\’s fastball had a batting average against of just .150. Tyler Duffey, another ex-starter, also had a breakout year while only focusing on pitching one inning. Duffey struck out 82 batters in 57.2 innings for a 12.8 K/9, when his previous career high was 8.5. He had a 1.006 WHIP and a 2.50 ERA. Duffey had a wOBA against of .254. Tyler Clippard is the only guy on the Twins that will top Rich Hill\’s soon-to-be nine team feat. Clippard will have played for ten teams by the time he makes his Twins debut, and he is five years younger than Hill. For Cleveland last year, Clippard had a 2.90 ERA with 64 strikeouts in 62 innings. Clippard allowed an average exit velocity of 85 miles per hour. Zack Littell, who the Twins acquired from the Yankees in 2017 for Jaime Garcia, had a 2.68 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 37 innings. Littell threw five different pitches last year, but three of them (change-up, curveball, sinker) were thrown a combined 16 times. Batters were 5-for-5 with three doubles against those three pitches, hence why Littell doesn\’t throw them often. Former 13th round pick Cody Stashak debuted, striking out 25 in 25 innings, with a 3.24 ERA. In seven Spring Training innings, Stashak allowed three hits with no runs. Along with Dobnak and Chacin, Devin Smeltzer could be a spot starter. A cancer survivor acquired for former face-of-the-franchise second baseman Brian Dozier, Smeltzer had a 3.86 ERA in 49 innings over 11 games (six starts). Smeltzer\’s fastball has an above-average spin rate of 2433 rpm. The final spot is a competition between Matt Wisler and Lewis Thorpe. Thorpe, Minnesota\’s 10th best prospect, per MLB Pipeline, debuted in 2019 with a 6.18 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 27.2 innings over 12 games (two starts). The Austrailian lefty has a slider with a super low 1956 rpm spin rate. He has the advantage on Wisler because of his handedness. Wisler spent 2019 between the Padres and Mariners, and he opened games for the latter. Overall, Wisler struck out 63 batters in 51.1 innings with a 5.61 ERA.

       Catchers
The Twins let Jason Castro walk because of Mitch Garver\’s breakout season. Garver hit an insane 31 home runs in just 93 games, with a .273 average and a .995 OPS, to pick up a Silver Slugger award. Garver had a hard hit percentage of exactly 50%, with a .573 xSLG. The Twins signed Alex Avila, who was a part of a three catcher tandem in Arizona. While he only had a .207 average, Avila had a decent .774 OPS. Avila\’s father, Al, is the GM of the rival Tigers. Alex has spent parts of eight of his eleven seasons in Detroit, but not all under his Dad. Avila is a good pitch framer. Willians \”La Tortuga\” Astudillo can play third and first base as well as catcher. Currently sick (COVID), Astudillo hit four home runs with a .268 average. Astudillo does not walk or strikeout, with a K% and BB% under 4%.

       Infielders
The Twins\’ big offseason move was to sign the Bringer of Rain himself, Josh Donaldson, to a four year, $92 million deal. A club option for a fifth year is included. A three-time all-star and MVP winner, Donaldson spent 2019 in Atlanta, where he hit 37 home runs with 100 walks, a .259 average and a .900 OPS. While crushing the ball (92.9 average exit velocity), Donaldson showed teams that he can be a great defender at third, with eight outs above average, a six outs improvement from 2018. The acquisition of Donaldson, plus CJ Cron signing in Detroit will force Miguel Sano to make a move to first base. Sano hit a career high 34 home runs with a .923 OPS. Another player currently sick with the coronavirus, Sano has missed time in previous seasons, and has never played in 120 games in a season. Sano had -5 outs above average last year. He hits the ball harder than anyone, just beat out Aaron Judge of the Yankees to be first in the league with a 57.2 hard hit%. He also lead the league in average exit velocity (94.4 mph) and barrel percentage (21.2%). In a 60-game season, it is possible for someone to hit .400. Luis Arraez is a big sleeper to do so. Talking over at second base from Jonathan Schoop, Arraez hit .334 in a 92 game rookie season, with an .838 OPS and a 6th place finish in Rookie of the Year voting. On the exact opposite side of the strikeout spectrum from Sano (who had a 36.2% K%), Arraez struck out just 7.9% of the time, the least in the league (minimum 350 PA). Jorge Polanco is another player who broke out, and made the all-star team. Polanco, who was suspended in 2018 for PEDs, came back and hit 22 home runs with a .295 average and .841 OPS. Polanco\’s four stolen bases were second on the team. His average exit velocity went up by 3.1 mph, to 87.0 mph. Marwin Gonzalez is a super utility player that spent a lot of time at left field. Listed as an infielder, Gonzalez hit 15 home runs with a .264 average and a .736 OPS, the latter two being slight improvements from 2018. While he likely won\’t recreate his amazing 2017, Gonzalez\’s average exit velocity of 90.4 mph in 2019 was a 3.9 mph improvement from \’17. His best position defensively is the crowded third base, with four outs above average last year. Ehire Adrianza brings a switch-hitting bat and is a fine back-up infielder. Adrianza hit five home runs with a .272 average plus a .765 OPS in 83 games at five different positions (right field and the infield).

       Outfielders
The Twins shifted their outfielders after Byron Buxton was injured, moving Eddie Rosario from left to right, and Max Kepler adjusting to center field, while Gonzalez played left. Buxton, the fastest player on the team and maybe even the league, had a 30.3 ft/s sprint speed, and has hit as high as 30.9 ft/s in a season (2015). Buxton is also a great defender with 12 outs above average in 87 games (in 2017, his only full season, Buxton had 26 OAA). At the plate Buxton was good, but not great. He hit 10 home runs with 14 stolen bases and an .827 OPS. Rosario had a career high 32 home runs and 109 RBIs, but his .276 batting average and .800 OPS were both drop-offs from the previous two seasons. Rosario has lowered his strikeout rate, which was down to 14.6% in 2019. Kepler, the final starting outfielder and one of the few Germans in the league, hit 36 home runs with an .855 OPS, and was their playoff lead-off hitter. Kepler is a good defender, with seven outs above average (four in right, three in center). Jake Cave, who along with Zack Littell is a former Yankee prospect, saw a decrease in home runs from 2018, down to eight, and in batting average to .258, but his OPS of .805 was the higher of his two seasons. Cave had an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph. 2019 was the first season that Nelson Cruz did not play the field, and was solely a DH, not even playing outfield when the Twins were in the National League. In just 120 games, Cruz hit 41 home runs, which was the fourth time he\’s hit at least 40 home runs. He\’s hit at least 22 in each of the last 11 seasons, with 30 home runs in seven of them. A six-time all-star and three-time Silver Slugger winner, Cruz hit .311 with a career high 1.031 OPS. Now 40 years-old, Cruz had a league leading .644 xSLG, with a 19.9 barrel percentage.

       Projected Opening Day Lineup
RF Max Kepler (L)
SS Jorge Polanco (S)
DH Nelson Cruz (R)
LF Eddie Rosario (L)
3B Josh Donaldson (R)
C Mitch Garver (R)
3B Miguel Sano (R)
2B Luis Arraez (L)
CF Byron Buxton (R)

       Projected Rotation
Jose Berrios (R)
Jake Odorizzi (R)
Kenta Maeda (R)
Rich Hill (L)
Homer Bailey (R)

       Projected Bullpen
Taylor Rogers, closer (L)
Sergio Romo (R)
Trevor May (R)
Tyler Duffey (R)
Tyler Clippard (R)
Zack Littell (R)
Randy Dobnak (R)
Devin Smelzter (L)
Cody Stashak (R)
Jhoulys Chacin (R)
Lewis Thorpe (L)

       Projected Bench
C Alex Avila (L)
C/3B Willians Astudillo (R)
UT Marwin Gonzalez (S)
IF Ehire Adrianza (S)
OF Jake Cave (L)

Baseball-Reference OOTP Simulator Stats:
54-43 record, 2nd in AL Central
Most home runs: Max Kepler (24)
Highest batting average: Mitch Garver (.294)
Highest OPS: Mitch Garver (.899)
Best ERA, starters: Jose Berrios (3.30)
Best ERA, relievers: Tyler Duffey (2.10)
Most innings pitched: Jose Berrios (131.0)
Most strikeouts: Kenta Maeda (123)
Best K/9: Tyler Duffey (10.5)

Record through 60 games, last five seasons:
2019: 40-20
2018: 27-33
2017: 32-28
2016: 18-42
2015: 33-27

       Prediction
The Twins have one of the best lineups in baseball, especially for slugging. While they got out-slugged in the ALDS by their kryptonite, the Yankees, the Twins still beat the Yankees by one home run, to set the record for most team home runs in a single season, with 307. The rotation is an issue, but the Twins brought in productive veterans Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill, plus Homer Bailey to improve that. The bullpen is very underrated, with good pitchers like Rogers, Romo, Duffey and May. Expect the Twins to be able to recreate their 2019 season, and win the AL Central, although the Astros or Yankees will block them again from the ALCS.