NHL Trade Review: Predators acquire McCarron

         The Nashville Predators have acquired F Michael McCarron from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for F Laurent Dauphin.

         McCarron was the Canadiens\’ first round pick in 2013, but he could never stick in the NHL. He has not played since 2017-18, and was struggling in the AHL. The Predators, who also introduced a new head coach today in John Hynes, might see something in McCarron, who is still fairly young at 24. He is definitely a better option than Dauphin, who also has not played in the NHL regularly in a while and is having a bad AHL season.

          McCarron, 24, last played in the NHL in 2017-18, when he had one point, an assist, in 18 games. In his NHL career, McCarron has scored two goals with six assists for eight points in 69 games. For the AHL\’s Laval Rocket this year, McCarron has scored five goals with nine assists for 14 points in 29 games.

         The Canadiens added forward help recently in Ilya Kovalchuk, and seeing that McCarron hasn\’t played in the NHL in two seasons, he wasn\’t going to get called up. But neither is Dauphin, who is arguably having a worse AHL season that McCarron, and as a second round pick, doesn\’t have the same upside McCarron does at the same age. This trade might just be an AHL move, but it still doesn\’t make sense for Montreal.

         Dauphin, 24, last played in the NHL in 2018-19, when he did not score in one game for the Arizona Coyotes. In his NHL career, all for the Coyotes, Dauphin has three goals with an assist for four points in 33 games. For the AHL\’s Milwaukee Admirals, Dauphin has scored seven goals with nine assists for 16 points in 33 games.

NHL Trade Review: Sabres trade Scandella to Montreal, acquire Frolik

From USA Today

          The Montreal Canadiens have acquired defenseman Marco Scandella from the Buffalo Sabres for a 2020 4th round pick. The Sabres have already traded that same draft pick to the Calgary Flames for forward Michael Frolik.

          The Canadiens wanted an upgrade on defense. Currently in fifth place, they are looking for an energizer. The team just traded Mike Reilly to the Senators, and now they get Scandella for slightly more than they got for Reilly (Andrew Sturtz and a 5th round pick). Reilly was not playing most nights, but Scandella will in Montreal. After a rough second season in Buffalo, Scandella has rebounded this year. If his plus/minus rating of +9 were to hold up, it would be the second best of his career, just one behind his +10 rating in 2013-14. He has missed games this year, but he would be on an 82 game scoring pace of a career high 24 points. He will be a decent bottom pairing option for coach Claude Julien, and they don\’t part with much. He does have a $4 million cap hit, but he will be a free agent after 2019-20.

           Scandella, 29, has scored three goals with six assists for nine points in 31 games for the Sabres this year. In his NHL career for the Sabres and Minnesota Wild, Scandella has scored 41 goals with 92 assists for 133 points in 549 games.

           The Sabres have a lot of good defensemen. They have seven defensemen in the NHL that are all arguably better than Scandella. They also have NHL ready defensemen in the AHL like Casey Nelson, Lawrence Pilut and John Gilmour. Also, they free up $4 million in cap space that was soon used on Frolik. Scandella is a pending UFA and was not playing every game. They trade the same draft pick, so there is no loss. Frolik is having a bad season with the Flames, playing on the fourth line. Like Scandella, he is a UFA after the season. Frolik has a slightly higher cap hit of $4.3 million. He is at best a third liner, as he has not scored over 20 goals since he was 21 in 2009-10. But the Sabres could really use a veteran forward. At 31, Frolik is tied with Kyle Okposo for the team\’s oldest forward. The Flames free up the cap space for a potential addition down the stretch. They now have around $2 million in cap space.

            Frolik, 31, has scored five goals with five assists for 10 points in 38 games with the Flames this year. In his NHL career for the Flames, Winnipeg Jets, Chicago Blackhawks and Florida Panthers Frolik has scored 158 goals with 222 assists for 380 points in 831 games.

NHL Trade Review: Senators acquire Reilly

From The Athletic

        The Ottawa Senators have acquired defenseman Mike Reilly from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for forward Andrew Sturtz and a 2021 5th round pick.

       The Senators don\’t need a defenseman. They currently have nine defensemen on their roster, including the two on injured reserve. Both Dylan DeMelo and Ron Hainsey shouldn\’t be out for so much longer. But Reilly is a better option than Andreas Englund, Christian Jaros and Cody Goloubef, all who are on the active roster and have combined for just 24 NHL games this year. The Senators might also shop veteran defenseman Mark Borowiecki. If Borowiecki gets dealt, then Reilly would likely be his replacement. The Senators could try to see if Reilly has a good two months leading up to the trade deadline and then flip him then. But Reilly is not a UFA at the end of the season. He is under contract for the rest of this season and 2020-21 at a $1.5 million cap hit. Getting Reilly isn\’t risky, and they give up a fifth rounder and a fringe AHL/ECHL player.

      Reilly, 26, has no goals with four assists in 14 games for the Canadiens this year. In his NHL career for the Canadiens and Minnesota Wild, Reilly has scored seven goals with 34 assists for 41 points in 174 games.

      Even after signing Reilly in the offseason, he was very expendable with the rise of former third rounder Cale Fleury. Also, the team would acquire Marco Scandella from the Sabres less than an hour later. They traded away a fourth rounder for Scandella, so they upgraded defensemen while just downgrading picks by one round. They also get Sturtz, which just seems like an extra contract the Senators are getting rid of. He has played in both the AHL and ECHL this year.

      Sturtz, 25, has scored one goal with one assist for two points in 14 games for the AHL\’s Belleville Senators this year. He also had a goal and an assist in four games for the ECHL\’s Brampton Beast.

     

Predicting the remains of the starting pitching free agent market

        The 2019 calendar year is not over yet, but unlike the last few years, the MLB free agency market has moved very quickly. While there are still some quality position players available, the pitching market is about over, after Hyun-Jin Ryu\’s four year, $80 million agreement with the Blue Jays. Of the 20 free agent pitchers with a WAR of 2 or higher in 2019, 18 of them have signed, leaving Homer Bailey and Ivan Nova behind. That does not include former Cy Young winners Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello, plus all-stars in Gio Gonzalez, Julio Teheran, and Michael Wacha. All five of those players have new homes. But there are still teams in need of a starter or two, and there are still some vets looking for a new home.

        A very under looked option is Alex Wood. Wood will be just 29 in 2020. A 2017 all star, Wood has a 3.40 career ERA in 839 innings. In his six career seasons entering 2019, Wood\’s season by season ERA ranged from 2.72 to 3.84. But injuries stalled his 2019, limiting him to seven starts, where he had a 5.80 ERA. The Angels have been criticized for not being able to land a top starting pitcher this offseason, bringing in just Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. The Angels could use Wood. A contract could look like a one year deal with a club option, giving Wood in the $4-6 million range. It would be a big gamble, but the former Dodger would definitely make the rotation better.

      Homer Bailey had an interesting 2019. He signed a minor league deal with the Royals, earned a rotation spot and had a hot stretch before being traded to the A\’s. In 13 starts for the A\’s, Bailey had a 4.30 ERA, which would have been his best in a season since 2014. With Jon Gray rumored to be on the way out, the Rockies could look for a part time replacement. Bailey\’s 1.2 HR/9 in 2019 was in the top half in the league. Playing in Coors Field will probably worsen that, but the Rockies could use a pitcher like him.

       The ERA champion in 2016, Aaron Sanchez has fallen a lot since then. Blisters and other injuries have cost him significant time, and his 2019 ERA of 5.89 was a career worst. He was traded from the Blue Jays to the Astros mid season, and while he was a part of a combined no hitter in his first game in Houston, Sanchez made just three more starts, allowing 10 runs. He is just 27, the youngest among notable free agent pitchers. He is less of a guarantee for a turn around than Wood, but he can still be a fifth starter on a bad team. The Giants are a bad team, and desperately need a starter, with only Jeff Samardzija qualifying for the ERA title last year among returners. Only Kevin Gausman has been brought in, and behind Gausman, Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, the rotation looks fuzzy.

          The White Sox brought in Ivan Nova without many expectations for the then 32 year old. Nova was healthy all year, and his 34 starts lead the league. However, so did his 225 hits allowed. He had a very bad 4.72 ERA, but believe it or not, teams are prepared to give rotation spots to pitchers with worse numbers. A team that could be open to a Nova reunion is the Pirates. Chris Archer, Trevor Williams and Joe Musgrove will lock up three rotation spots, and top prospect Mitch Keller will likely get another one. That leaves the fifth one wide open. Steven Brault is the front runner, but his 5.16 ERA in 19 starts last year is unimpressive. Nova pitched some of his best years with the Pirates, with a 3.99 ERA in parts of three seasons.

NHL Trade Review: Coyotes acquire Hall

From Sportsnet

           The Arizona Coyotes have acquired forwards Taylor Hall and Blake Speers from the New Jersey Devils in exchange for defenseman Kevin Bahl, forwards Nick Merkley and Nate Schnarr, as well as a 2020 1st round draft pick and a 2021 conditional third round pick. The Devils will retain 50% of Hall\’s salary.

            The Coyotes are not the team that will often make a trade like this. That\’s likely because they are never good. It is also because they often acquire bad contracts from other teams, and those players never play for them. Take Pavel Datsyuk, Dave Bolland and Marian Hossa for example. But now, the Hossa trade is coming back to hurt them. While Hossa is on LTIR, and will not count towards the cap hit, his contract brings the Coyotes over the cap by over $2 million. Even with the money retained, Hall\’s cap hit for both teams will be $3 million. Without trading any NHLers, the Coyotes don\’t clear up much space. They will have to waive someone, put someone on LTIR or make another trade to make the deal work. But it will be worth it. Hall is an elite winger. The Hart trophy winner just two seasons ago, Hall was the 1st overall pick in 2010. In 2017-18, he scored 39 goals with 93 points in his second season with the Devils after being acquired from Edmonton for Adam Larsson. Hall is another first line winger. The Coyotes acquired Phil Kessel, a consistent goal scorer, in the offseason, but he has just seven goals so far. If he is on the same line as Hall, Kessel will score more goals. Hall has not been much of a goal scorer this year, but he already has 19 assists in 30 games. The Coyotes also get an AHL forward in Speers that will just add depth.

               Hall, 28, scored six goals with 19 assists for 25 points in 30 games for the Devils this season. In his NHL career for the Devils and Edmonton Oilers, Hall has scored 208 goals with 328 assists for 536 points in 592 games.

              Speers, 22, has three games of NHL experience, all coming in 2016-17. He did not get a point. In 10 AHL games this year, Speers has one assist.

              The Devils have had a terrible start to the season. They have a 10-17-5 record, and are dead last in the Metropolitan Division. Hall, their star forward, is the top pending free agent, and wasn\’t going to re-sign. The trade Hall for a haul, acquiring a first round pick, and a third that can be upgraded. If the Coyotes win one playoff round this year, or re-sign Hall, the pick is a second rounder. If both things occur, the Devils get Arizona\’s 2021 first round pick. With the tight cap space in Arizona, Hall\’s expected raise and Arizona usually being unappealing to top free agents, Devils fans will have to hope Arizona wins a playoff round to get a pick upgrade. The Devils also acquire three prospects. The oldest is Merkley, who was a late first round pick in the star studded 2015 draft. However, he has played in just one NHL game, and does not have a very impressive AHL track record. Schnarr is a third round pick from 2017, and Bahl was a second rounder from 2018. While a trade was close, the Devils scratched Hall twice for precautionary reasons. The first game was against a big time suitor in Colorado, and the second game was of course, against the Coyotes.

                Merkley, 22, had no points in his one NHL game in 2017-18. In 26 games for AHL Tucson this year, Merkley has scored three goals with 13 assists for 16 points. He had 34 points in 43 games in 2018-19.

                Bahl, 19, has five goals with 15 assists for 20 points in 28 games for the OHL\’s Ottawa 67s this season. Bahl also had 34 points last year, but in 68 games.

               Schnarr, 20, has one goal with eight assists for nine points in 22 games for Tucson this year, his first professional season. For the OHL\’s Guelph Storm last year, Schnarr scored 34 goals with 68 assists for 102 points in 65 games.