CarterHud

The Toronto Maple Leafs have acquired defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin and forward Ryan Dzingel from the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for forward Nick Ritchie and a conditional draft pick. Arizona can choose between a 2023 third-round pick and a 2025 second-rounder.

Toronto’s infamous battle against hard-nosed, gritty players has led General Manager Kyle Dubas to address the situation in recent years. He brought in Zach Bogosian, Wayne Simmonds, and Nick Foligno last year. Lyubushkin fits into that mold now, filling the hole left open when Bogosian left for Tampa Bay this past offseason. A strong, right-handed defender on a cheap contract, Lyubushkin is a perfect fit for the third pairing. He is a free agent at the end of this season, so the Leafs have no big commitment to him. Dzingel is an old enemy, having played 276 games for the rival Senators. He is a fast winger with decent defensive numbers, but does not provide much besides that. He also is on an expiring contract.

Lyubushkin, 27, has nine assists in 46 games for Arizona this year. In 180 career games, all for the Coyotes, he has a goal with 18 assists.

Dzingel, 29, has scored four goals with three assists for seven points in 26 games this season. In his NHL career for the Coyotes, Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Carolina Hurricanes, he has scored 86 goals with 101 assists for 187 points in 398 games.

The tanking Coyotes have no need for their depth players, so getting a solid draft pick for Lyubushkin and Dzingel is a win for them. The most notable return piece for now is Ritchie, a former top pick who has flamed out of every NHL stop he’s taken. He signed a two-year deal with a $2.5 million cap hit this past offseason, but was waived to the minors. For a better return, Arizona will take on the entirety of his contract. They can pick between two options for the selection, but going with the higher overall would make more sense, especially since the Leafs could easily be a worse team then compared to the present day. They could draft a player with this pick that is 14 or 15 currently, which is strange to think about.

Ritchie, 26, has scored two goals with seven assists for nine points in 33 games for Toronto this year, along with 79 hits. In his NHL career for the Leafs, Boston Bruins, and Anaheim Ducks, Ritchie has scored 61 goals with 85 assists for 146 points in 383 games.

The Miami Marlins have added the top catcher on the market, sending RHP Zach Thompson, OF Connor Scott, and RHP Kyle Nicolas to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jacob Stallings.

The Pirates did not have a ton of players with value. But after Bryan Reynolds, Stallings was probably their second best player. Offensively, he is a below-average hitter, although not by much. But, he is a very good defensive catcher, who will make Miami’s young pitching staff better. The sad part is that even though his 95 wRC+ from 2021 is not good, it would be a big addition to the Marlins lineup four months ago. This likely means that Jorge Alfaro will be non-tendered by the team after a tough season.

Stallings, who in a month will be 31, is not a free agent until 2025. He hit eight home runs with a .335 OBP, a .369 slugging (.704 OPS), a 2.6 fWAR, and a 3.0 bWAR. He has a career .701 OPS, a 5.0 fWAR, and a 6.0 bWAR.

The return going to Pittsburgh is headlined by Thompson. A career minor leaguer, mostly with the White Sox, he struggled at AAA before making the most out of his MLB opportunity in 2021. Thompson has an effective, high spin cutter that was his primary pitch out of the bullpen and while starting. The 28 year old had a 3.24 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, a 3.71 xERA, and a strikeout rate of 21% in 75 innings.

The two prospects that are now Pirates were both ranked by MLB Pipeline on the Marlins’ top-30 list. Nicolas was 16th, Scott 23rd. Drafted 61st overall in 2020, Nicolas still qualifies as a first round selection. His first professional season started off rough at High-A. He did have 86 strikeouts in 59.2 innings, but also allowed 13 home runs. Nicolas ramped things up after a promotion to AA. In eight starts, he struck out 50 in 39.1 innings with a 2.52 ERA. The main issue for him is control; Nicolas walked 25 batters after his call-up, and 24 prior.

Scott is also a first rounder, albeit a lot higher than Nicolas. He was the 13th overall pick in 2018, picked just ahead of promising Seattle rookie Logan Gilbert. Scott had his best minor league season yet in 2021 at the age of 21. He hit 10 homers with 14 stolen bases, a .779 OPS, and a 112 wRC+ in 96 games. Scott has speed but his bat has always been behind. There is some work to do here for Pittsburgh.

After acquiring him at the trade deadline, the San Diego Padres have sent utility player Adam Frazier to the Seattle Mariners for LHP Ray Kerr and OF Corey Rosier.

Frazier was off to a career season in 2021, with an OPS of .836, when he was sent to San Diego. Everything fell apart after that, with a .662 OPS following the trade. With a year left on his contract, the Padres are trying to get some of their lost value back. They dealt Tucupita Marcano, Jack Suwinski, and Michell Miliano to Pittsburgh, which is a solid haul. MLB Pipeline has Marcano ninth and Suwinski 29th on Pittsburgh’s top prospects list.

In return, they get two players at very different spots in their career. Kerr is a hard throwing lefty who is not really a prospect anymore at the age of 27. He had a 37.4 K% with a 2.83 ERA and a 2.54 FIP at AA last season. Kerr was called up to AAA. While not as good, he still managed to post a FIP of 3.02. Combined, he only threw 39.2 innings last season.

That would mean that Rosier has to be the centerpiece of the deal. A 12th round draft pick from earlier this year, Rosier went from Chipola College in Florida to Single-A, where he had a .390/.461/.585 slash line with 13 stolen bases in 31 games.

Frazier was reportedly a big target for the Mariners at the trade deadline. They lost out on him, and now get him for a lot less than they would have months ago. Even with his awful stint with the Padres, his total numbers are still good. He struck out just 10.8 percent of the time with a .305 average, a .368 OBP, 114 wRC+, and a 3.5 fWAR. Frazier is also a decent defender with flexibility. He is mainly a second baseman, but also played left field last season. In his career, Frazier has played third, shortstop, left, and right field. If the Mariners miss out on a big bat this offseason, then Frazier can start at second base. If not, he will be a solid utility option.

The Detroit Tigers have acquired catcher Tucker Barnhart in exchange for infielder Nick Quintana.

Planning to non-tender him, the Reds instead sent Barnhart to the American League for a prospect. The Tigers are willing to pay Barnhart $7.5 million, unlike the Reds, who seem to be cutting costs. In return, they get Quintana. He was taken in the second round of the 2019 draft by Detroit after dominating at the University of Arizona. However, since turning pro, Quintana has been a massive disappointment. His offense has gone from his strength to a weakness. He will be a reclamation project for Cincinnati.

Quintana, 24, hit nine home runs with four stolen bases, a .317 OBP, and a .645 OPS in 375 Plate Appearances across three levels, mainly Single-A Lakeland. In his minor league career, Quintana has hit 11 bombs with eight steals, a .299 OBP, and a .607 OPS in 635 Plate Appearances.

While Eric Haase’s 22 home runs was a pleasant surprise from behind the plate, Barnhart is a welcome addition to the Tigers, who make the trade to jump what would have been Barnhart’s free agent market. A two-time Gold Glove winner, Barnhart has been well below average offensively all throughout his career. His OPS+ has been exactly 75 in each of the past two seasons. He is a good pitch framer and while his 7.5 BB% in 2021 was not good, it snapped a three year streak of that being over 10%. If he can get back to the double-digit walk rate, while helping out the young Tigers’ pitching staff, then Barnhart will be an effective platoon option.

Barnhart, 30, hit seven home runs with a .317 OBP and a .685 OPS in 388 Plate Appearances for the Reds last season. In his MLB career, all for Cincinnati, Barnhart has hit 51 home runs with a .324 OBP and a .696 OPS in 2561 Plate Appearances.

The Jets’ playoff run was filled with two close match-ups where both teams battled things out tightly. Or… not. The Jets embarrassed the Oilers in four, then failed to win a single game versus Montreal. They had so many defensive struggles that it was a must to upgrade in that area this offseason. And hey, they did! Winnipeg does not look half bad, especially now that Connor Hellebuyck has some help.

Offseason Additions: D Nate Schmidt, D Brenden Dillon, F Riley Nash.

Offseason subtractions: F Mason Appleton, F Mathieu Perrault, G Laurent Brossoit, D Derek Forbort, D Tucker Poolman, F Trevor Lewis, F Nate Thompson, D Jordie Benn, D Sami Niku.

Forwards

A great season for Mark Scheifele was dampened by a dirty playoff hit on Jake Evans that had him suspended for the rest of the second round and even the start of this season. Scheifele does not have the best underlying numbers, but he can put points on the board, with 21 goals and 42 assists for 63 points in 56 games last season. He is an efficient player, as he has sustained a 16 percent shooting rate and a 102 PDO over his career. The same could be said for Kyle Connor, who has a 15.4 percent shooting percentage over his career. Connor scored 26 goals with 50 points last season. He has not missed a game over the past three seasons, scoring 98 goals in that span. Blake Wheeler played a good amount of center in 2019-20, but he moved completely away from that position last year, taking just eight draws. He scored 15 goals with 31 assists in 50 games. The Winnipeg captain has been on pace to reach at least 70 points, or just hit the mark in every single year since 2015-16. The most underrated Jet is easily Nikolaj Ehlers, who quietly averaged about a point-per-game last season, with 46 in 47 games. 21 of those points were goals, extending his 20+ goal streak to five seasons. After coming over from Columbus for Patrik Laine, Pierre-Luc Dubois was a big disappointment. He scored just eight goals with 12 assists in 41 games. Dubois has the talent to be a borderline first line center, but the Jets didn’t see that. Dubois now has a new number, honoring late teammate Matiss Kivlenieks. In his return to Winnipeg, Paul Stastny scored 13 goals with 16 assists, while winning 54.7 percent of his face-offs. The veteran’s CF% of 57.4 was significantly higher than the team’s average. Andrew Copp had a breakout season, establishing himself as a very good middle-six winger. Copp averaged over 18 minutes a night, scoring 15 goals with 39 points. All three of those were career-highs for the Ann Arbor native. Ginormous center Adam Lowry signed a five-year extension with the Jets midseason, carrying a $3.25 million AAV. He scored ten goals with 14 assists, while laying 161 hits. After losing Mason Appleton to Seattle, the Jets need 2017 first-rounder Kristian Vesalainen to step up and be a third line wing. Vesalainen had just an assist in 12 NHL games last season. In the AHL, he scored a goal with four assists in six games. 21-year-old David Gustafsson played for three teams last year; the Jets, the AHL Moose, and Tingsryds AIF in Sweden. He had 17 points in 16 games overseas, plus 19 points in 22 games for Manitoba. Gustafsson only got into four NHL games. Jansen Harkins drew into 26 games last season, but did not do much while averaging under eight-and-a-half minutes a game. Harkins had a goal and an assist. His father Todd and uncle Brett both played in the NHL. In comes Riley Nash, a veteran who does not offer much offensively but is very skilled in his own end. He had seven points in 37 games for the Blue Jackets last season, and despite not playing in a single regular season game for them, Nash played in two postseason games for Toronto. Dominic Toninato only got into two games for Winnipeg last year, and he scored three goals in three AHL games. Toninato was a semi-regular for the Panthers in 2019-20, with 11 points in 46 games.

Defensemen

The Jets trust Josh Morrissey to be a top-pairing defender, but he has really struggled in that role, to the point where his new seven-year deal looks dicey. Morrissey had 21 points in 56 games, with a very ugly 3.05 xGA/60, which cannot happen to a number one defenseman. He could be helped out by the arrival of Nate Schmidt, the energetic defender who did not have a fun season in Vancouver. Schmidt had 15 points in 54 games, a year after he had 31 in 59 contests for Vegas. Schmidt finished 13th in Lady Byng voting, taking just two minor penalties all season. The other key defensive add for the Jets, Brenden Dillon, is the polar opposite of Schmidt. He is a defensive-minded, physical player who will spend a decent amount of time in the penalty box. In his only full season for the Capitals, Dillon had 19 points with 49 penalty minutes, 61 blocks, and 143 hits. Neal Pionk is the team’s best power play option on defense, as ten of his 32 points were on the man advantage. He may not be the biggest guy, but Pionk had 137 hits last season. It was pretty surprising to see the Jets expose Dylan DeMelo in the expansion draft, and then get to retain him. DeMelo is a very good defensive player, although he was underused last season, with his ice time being cut down to under 17 minutes a game. Former first-rounder Logan Stanley was decent in his rookie season, although he did not get a chance to shine. Stanley had four points with 31 blocks and 49 hits in 37 games. Stanley scored two more times with 21 hits in the playoffs. Nathan Beaulieu has been a depth option for the Jets over the past two seasons, although he has struggled. Beaulieu had just an assist with 20 penalty minutes, 30 blocked shots, and 39 hits in 25 games last season. Ville Heinola has five points in 13 NHL games, although none of those points came in his five games last season. The 20-year-old had 11 points in 19 games for the Moose.

Goalies

While his overall numbers may not look amazing, Connor Hellebuyck is an absolute star, and arguably the league’s top goalie. He has been overused, seeing more shots than any goalie in each of the last three seasons, but Hellebuyck has still been good. Behind an awful Winnipeg defense, he had a .916 save percentage with a GSAA of 11. Hellebuyck was great in the first round, with an all-around playoff save percentage of .931. With Laurent Brossoit leaving for Vegas, Eric Comrie will finally get a chance to be an NHL backup. He started his career with the Jets, but bounced around last year and now returns. Comrie played in one game for the Devils. In four AHL games, he allowed just five goals.

Projected Lines

Kyle Connor – Mark Scheifele – Blake Wheeler

Pierre-Luc Dubois – Paul Stastny – Nikolaj Ehlers

Andrew Copp – Adam Lowry – Kristian Vesalainen

Jansen Harkins – David Gustafsson – Riley Nash

Extras: Dominic Toninato

Josh Morrissey – Nate Schmidt

Brenden Dillon – Neal Pionk

Logan Stanley – Dylan DeMelo

Extras: Nathan Beaulieu, Ville Heinola

Connor Hellebuyck

Eric Comrie

Prediction

The Jets are not a total defensive hole anymore. They may be in trouble if the injury bug hits them, but they have a strong roster. Hellebuyck can take over games. This team is sneaky-dangerous. They will make the playoffs, even making it into the divisional spots, passing the wild card.