CarterHud

 

       A big conversation around the Buffalo Sabres is that the team is wasting Jack Eichel\’s prime. But, the same could be said about the guy drafted before Eichel, Connor McDavid. McDavid will be 24 on the day the season starts, and he\’s won one playoff series. The Oilers looked like they could make some noise last year, but fell in the wild card round in an embarrassing fashion to the Chicago Blackhawks. Goaltending was a big issue, and that wasn\’t fixed. The Oilers offseason was very mixed, with some good, some bad, and some ugly moves. 

Additions: D Tyson Barrie, F Dominik Kahun, F Kyle Turris, D Slater Koekkoek, F Alan Quine.

Subtractions: F Andreas Athanasiou, D Matt Benning, F Riley Sheahan, F Markus Granlund.

Best Move: Signing Dominik Kahun to a one year deal.

Worst Move: Bringing back Mike Smith on a one year deal.

One Move I\’d Make: Sign Jimmy Howard to a PTO.

Best Contract: Leon Draisaitl, five years remaining with an $8.5 million cap hit. 

Worst Contract: Zack Kassian, four years remaining with a $3.2 million cap hit. 

New Division Rivals: Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Vancouver, Winnipeg.

Pending UFAs: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Tyson Barrie, Alex Chiasson, Slater Koekkoek, Mike Smith, Tyler Ennis, Joakim Nygard, Gaetan Haas.

Pending RFAs: Kailer Yamamoto, Dominik Kahun, Jujhar Khaira.

Current RFAs: Ethan Bear.

Forwards

Connor McDavid is good at hockey. That should not be a controversial take. His defense may not be superb, but in just 64 games last year, he scored 34 goals with 97 points and finished 5th in Hart voting. In the previous three seasons, he led the league in points twice, and hit the 100 point plateau all three times. He also averages over 21 minutes on ice a night. His spotlight was stolen from him by his teammate Leon Draisaitl, who captured the Hart trophy. Draisaitl scored 43 goals, and led the league with 67 assists and 110 points. The duo of McDavid and Draisaitl will be split up this year, and besides them, the team has a lot of holes. Former first overall pick Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could be entering his final season as an Oiler. He scored 22 goals with 61 points in 65 games. Former 4th overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi will return to North America after spending last year in Finland. He had nine points in 46 games in 2018-19, but for Karpat last year, he scored 24 goals with 53 points in 56 games. This season in Finland, he has 12 points in 16 games. The Oilers signed Dominik Kahun after the Sabres questionably didn\’t tender him a contract as an RFA. He scored 12 goals with 31 points in 56 games for the Sabres and Penguins last year. Kahun and Draisaitl were teammates as teenagers in Germany. Five-foot-eight forward Kailer Yamamoto played in just 27 games last year, but he really produced, scoring 11 goals with 15 assists for 26 points. He\’ll get a bigger role alongside Draisaitl or McDavid this year. The Oilers got James Neal in a cap dump trade for Milan Lucic, and in his first season, Neal did what he used to do: score goals. Neal scored 19 times in 55 games, and if the season didn\’t get cancelled, he would have hit 20 goals for the 11th time. His center will be Kyle Turris, who Neal just missed in Nashville by a season. Turris didn\’t work out for the Predators, but his 31 points in 62 games would be fine third line center numbers. He\’s only earning $1.65 million this year, so it\’s a worthy investment for Edmonton. Alex Chiasson has scored 33 goals over two seasons for the Oilers. 11 of those came this past season, and he finished with 24 points. Tyler Ennis played well for the Senators before the Oilers brought him aboard at the trade deadline. Combined, he scored 16 goals with 37 points in 70 games. Zack Kassian was a vital part in restarting the Battle of Alberta, and when he played with McDavid, he scored. Kassian finished with 15 goals and 19 assists. Josh Archibald scored 12 goals for the second consecutive season, but with the Oilers high on wingers and low on centers, Jujhar Khaira has a better chance to make the roster. Khaira scored 10 points in 64 games, and spent time on the penalty kill. Gaetan Haas is an option to start over Khaira. Haas played in 58 games last year, but averaged less than 10 minutes on ice a game. Of Khaira, Haas and Joakim Nygard, Nygard had the best points per game of the trio, with nine in 33 games. 

Defensemen

The Oilers have already lost Oscar Klefbom for the season. To replace him on the top power play unit, the Oilers signed Tyson Barrie, who will try to rebuild his value after a down year in Toronto. Barrie actually had a career high 53.8 CF%, but scored a career low five goals with 39 points. The top pairing will now consist of Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear, who are promoted from the second pairing. Nurse contributes more offensively than defensively, and he had 33 points in 71 games last year. The same could be said for Bear, who had a much higher GAR than his partner last year. Still an RFA, Bear had 21 points in 71 games. Caleb Jones, the brother of Seth Jones, had nine points in a career high 43 games last year. The 2015 4th rounder is looking to cement himself on the second pairing. His partner could be Adam Larsson, who lost Klefbom as his partner. Larsson will forever be known for his one-for-one trade for Taylor Hall, and he\’s basically a defensive defenseman who contributes little offensively. He rebounded last year after a bad 2018-19, and had six points in 49 games. There\’s only one year left of Kris Russell owning a $4 million cap hit. He did sign a one year extension worth $1.25 million for the 2021-22 season. Russell still has a good amount of defensive value. The Oilers recently signed Slater Koekkoek, the 10th overall pick in 2012 who has had good analytics when he\’s played, which isn\’t often. Last year for Chicago, Koekkoek had 10 points in a career high 42 games. Top prospect Evan Bouchard should be a regular by the end of 2021-22. He had 36 points in 54 AHL games last year, and in Sweden right now, he\’s put up 17 points in 23 games. 

Goalies

The weirdest move of the offseason for Edmonton was bringing back veteran goalie Mike Smith when there were many quality goalies available on the open market, including old friend Cam Talbot. Now 38 years old, Smith was below average in the regular season, with a .902 SV% and a 2.95 GAA in 39 games. His one playoff start helped lead to the end of the season for the Oilers, as he allowed five goals on 23 shots. He\’ll be a 1B to Mikko Koskinen, whose a much better option. Koskinen had a .917 SV% with a career best 9.25 GSAA in 38 games last year. 

Projected Lines

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Jesse Puljujarvi

Dominik Kahun – Leon Draisaitl – Kailer Yamamoto

James Neal – Kyle Turris – Alex Chiasson

Kyle Turris – Jujhar Khaira – Zack Kassian

Extras: Josh Archibald, Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard

Darnell Nurse – Ethan Bear

Caleb Jones – Adam Larsson

Kris Russell – Tyson Barrie

Extras: Slater Koekkoek, Evan Bouchard

Mikko Koskinen

Mike Smith

Projections

The Oilers are trying to resemble the 1980s Oilers with Connor McDavid as Wayne Gretzky and Leon Draisaitl as Mark Messier, and with a whole lot of goals scored and goals let up. The main difference between the eras of Oilers is that the 80s had Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson and Grant Fuhr. The Oilers\’ depth shallows out easily. The Canadian Division is weak, but there is little difference between five of the seven teams, with the Maple Leafs and Senators on opposite sides of the spectrum. The two teams (besides Ottawa) who miss the playoffs will come down to a coin flip, but I think Edmonton will just barely get in, finishing fourth. 

 

       The San Diego Padres have acquired LHP Blake Snell from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for RHPs Luis Patino and Cole Wilcox, plus catchers Francisco Mejia and Blake Hunt. Wow. This is supposed to be the part where I explain the trade but I\’m still a little bit surprised, so give me a sec. Wow. Ok, I\’m ready to go.

        The Padres became legitimate contenders last year when they went 37-23, finishing second in both the NL West and Major League Baseball. Their one goal this offseason was to find a way to take down the only team that did better than them, the Dodgers. They tried that when they acquired Mike Clevinger from Cleveland at the deadline, but with Clevinger out for the season with Tommy John surgery, they decided they had to go bigger. A potential solution could have been to sign Clevinger\’s ex-teammate, Trevor Bauer. But, Snell is younger, and on a much better contract. He\’s under contract for the next three seasons, and the most amount of money he will make in one year is the $16 million he\’ll earn in 2023. He\’s also only earning $10.5 million this year, much less than Bauer will. Snell won the 2018 AL Cy Young award with a 1.89 ERA, and he is a premier strikeout starter in the league, with a K% of at least 31 for the past three seasons. His best pitch is his slider, which allowed just one hit last year, and he threw it 131 times. He showed in the World Series that he can pitch against the Dodgers, dominating them in game six before being pulled early, just for the Rays to immediately blow the game, and lose the series. The price to pay is very hefty, but barring injury, Snell will be well worth it in a rotation with Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies, Chris Paddack and in 2022, Clevinger.

          Snell, 28, had a 3.24 ERA with 63 strikeouts, a 1.200 WHIP and a 4.35 FIP in 50 innings for the Rays in 2020. Over his five year career for the Rays, Snell has a 3.24 ERA with 648 strikeouts with a 1.237 WHIP, a 3.50 FIP, a 7.4 H/9 and a 130 ERA+ in 556 innings.

         For Rays fans, this has to be a terrible feeling. The team is known for trading away talent questionably, and while most of the time it ends up well for the team, it always hurts. This one might be the worst blow, right after the team went to the World Series, and right after Snell was pulled when he should not have been in Game 6. The return package is good, but still, this has to be frustrating. Patino is the headliner, and while he was the third prospect in the Padres system per MLB Pipeline, he is ranked 23rd in all of baseball, giving the Rays seven players in the top 100. He debuted in 2020, mostly as a reliever, and while he didn\’t blow anyone away, he was just 20 years old. Wilcox, a third rounder in this year\’s draft, was ranked seventh in the Padres organization. Part of the reason why he fell to the third round is concern with being able to sign him, but he set a record for a third round pick by signing a $3.3 million signing bonus. The Rays\’ big need entering 2021 was a catcher, as upgrading on Mike Zunino with a younger and better player was a must. They did bring back Zunino, but Mejia has a chance to overtake him. Once a top catching prospect in the game, the Padres got Mejia when they traded Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to Cleveland. He hasn\’t performed offensively when given a chance, and his only positive year was 2019, when he played in 79 games, and had a .754 OPS. He struggled in 17 games last year, but he is still relatively young. Hunt was ranked 14th in the Padres system. A 2017 second rounder, he\’s grown   defensively since being drafted, although his offensive numbers aren\’t great in the minors.

         Patino, 21, had a 5.19 ERA with 21 strikeouts and a 1.846 WHIP in 17.1 innings for the Padres last year. For High-A and AA in 2019, Patino had a 2.57 ERA with 123 strikeouts and a 1.130 WHIP in 94.2 innings. 

         Mejia, 25, hit one home run with a .077 average and a .322 OPS in 42 Plate Appearances in 2020. In his MLB career for the Padres and Cleveland Indians, Mejia has hit 12 home runs with a .225 average and an OPS of .668 in 362 Plate Appearances. 

         Wilcox, 21, had a 1.57 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 23 innings for the Georgia Bulldogs last year. In his collegiate career for Georgia, Wilcox had a 3.38 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 82.2 innings.

         Hunt, 22, hit five home runs with four stolen bases, a .255 average and a .712 OPS in 376 Plate Appearances for Single-A Fort Wayne in 2019. In his minor league career, Hunt has 10 home runs with seven stolen bases, a .258 average and an OPS of .725 in 751 Plate Appearances. 

 

       The Ottawa Senators have acquired F Cedric Paquette, D Braydon Coburn and a 2022 second round pick from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for G Anders Nilsson and F Marian Gaborik. Both Nilsson and Gaborik were immediately placed on LTIR by Tampa Bay.

        I like this move by both teams, especially Ottawa. Instead of paying for LTIR players that mean nothing to them, the team that now has more cap space then all but four teams decided to pay less money, but to players that they will use, and they got a second round pick in the process. Paquette really doesn\’t generate anything offensively, and his no goals and three assists and 25 playoff games proves that. He has been a fourth line center in Tampa for the past few years, and can kill penalties. The Senators have a lot of centers, and today they added both Derek Stepan and Paquette, and the latter can play the wing. Paquette has one year left on his contract with a $1.65 million cap hit, making it compatible to take on. Coburn is entering his 16th NHL season. He could be a third pairing defender in Ottawa, with Christian Wolanin eventually taking over. Like Paquette, Coburn has one year left on his contract, with a $1.7 million cap hit. 

         Paquette, 27, scored seven goals with 11 assists for 18 points in 61 games for the Lightning last year. In his NHL career, all in Tampa Bay, Paquette has 47 goals with 38 assists for 85 points in 377 games. 

         Coburn, 35, scored one goal with three assists for four points in 40 games last year. In his NHL career for the Lightning, Philadelphia Flyers and Atlanta Thrashers, Coburn has 49 goals with 183 assists for 232 points in 964 games. 

         This trade actually puts the Lightning over $15.8 million over the salary cap. But, since both Gaborik and Nilsson will go on LTIR, adding $7.475 million to the amount the Lightning can go over the cap, and plus Nikita Kucherov\’s $9.5 million LTIR salary, it\’s a cap compliant team. Whenever Kucherov returns that could change, but for now, they shed over $3 million in used up cap space, and give up a second rounder. Gaborik was an all-star in his prime, but hasn\’t played since the Senators acquired him in 2017-18. Nilsson played in 20 games as a backup last year, but is dealing with concussion issues that will make him miss the season. Both contracts end after the 2020-21 season.  

 

       The Red Wings embarrassed themselves in 2019-20, finishing last place with a 17-49-5 record. Everyone, except for the rival Canadiens, destroyed Detroit. It got worse when they did not win the first, second or third overall pick in the draft lottery. Steve Yzerman is back in Detroit, and his presence was felt when the Red Wings went out and signed a bunch of quality players, and maybe even winning the offseason. The team is still far from being competitive, but the past few months did bring them closer.

Additions: G Thomas Greiss, F Bobby Ryan, F Vladislav Namestnikov, D Troy Stetcher, D Jon Merrill, D Marc Staal.

Subtractions: D Trevor Daley, G Jimmy Howard, D Jonathan Ericsson, D Madison Bowey, F Justin Abdelkader, F Dmytro Timashov. 

Best Move: Improving their goaltending by signing Thomas Greiss.

Worst Move: Only giving Tyler Bertuzzi a one year extension.

One Move I\’d Make: Try to buy another draft pick by taking on a bad contract for one year.

Best Contract: Anthony Mantha, four years remaining with a $5.7 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: Frans Nielsen, two years remaining with a $5.25 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Carolina, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Florida, Nashville, Tampa Bay.

Pending UFAs: Darren Helm, Marc Staal, Bobby Ryan, Valtteri Filppula, Luke Glendening, Patrik Nemeth, Jonathan Bernier, Jon Merrill, Sam Gagner, Alex Biega.

Pending RFAs: Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Hronek, Adam Erne, Dennis Cholowski, Michael Rasmussen, Evgeny Svechnikov.

Forwards

After Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi signed RFA deals, the Red Wings\’ top line is back. Mantha actually had the most productive season of the group, scoring 16 goals with 38 points in only 43 games. His 54.1 CF% looks godly compared to some of his teammates. The star of the line remains Dylan Larkin, the speedy center who played in all 71 games last year. He finished with 53 points, which was lower than his previous two seasons. Bertuzzi is the most physical of the three, and led the team with 21 goals. They all averaged over 18 minutes on ice a game, with Larkin reaching 21 minutes for the second consecutive season. The Wings made a nice trade early in the season, sending Jacob de La Rose to St. Louis for Robby Fabbri. Fabbri was a second liner for Detroit, and scored 15 goals, 14 of them with the Red Wings. The Red Wings don\’t have a lot of centers, so free agent signee Vladislav Namestnikov could move there. Namestnikov can play all three forward positions, and played for three different teams last year. Overall, he scored 17 times with 14 assists in 65 games. He scored four goals in 12 games for the Avalanche in the playoffs. It is becoming time for former 6th overall pick Filip Zadina to make a difference. Zadina played in 28 games last year, and scored eight goals with seven assists. He had a productive 3.4 GAR. The Red Wings signed Bobby Ryan, who was one of the best stories in hockey last year and won the Masterton for it. Battling back from addiction issues, Ryan scored a hat trick in his first game back. He had eight points in 24 games total, and is ready to produce for Detroit. Going from the Islanders to the Red Wings, Valtteri Filppula had one of the most dramatic +/- range from season to season imaginable. After a +19 season, Filppula returned to Detroit and was a -42 player. At least he wasn\’t the worst on the team, that goes to Andreas Athanasiou, who was traded at the deadline. Filppula\’s 21 points was his lowest since the shortened 2012-13 season. Darren Helm is back for his 14th, and maybe final season as a Red Wing. He still kills penalties for them, and scored nine goals in 68 games last year. The fourth line will be a revolving door of players, both young and old. Sam Gagner came over from Edmonton in February, and scored a goal in six games. He\’s had a few really nice seasons Corsi-wise recently. Another key penalty killer and longtime Wing, Michigan native Luke Glendening received a Selke vote despite a -29 rating last year. He does have some defensive value, although he contributes little offensively. The Frans Nielsen contract really didn\’t work out. He always was a solid two-way forward, and he did contribute in his first three seasons with the Wings before an awful nine point, 60 game 2019-20 campaign. He did actually receive a Lady Byng vote, taking only four penalties all seasons. The Red Wings game former rival Adam Erne a fourth line chance, and he had five points in 56 games. Two former first rounders, Michael Rasmussen and Evgeny Svechnikov, need to prove a lot of things this year. Rasmussen was a regular in 2018-19, but did not appear in the NHL last year. He scored seven goals in 35 AHL games. He is currently playing in Austria, and has 18 points in 18 games. Svechnikov played in four NHL games, and had 25 points in 51 AHL games. 

Defensemen

The Red Wings hope that 23 year old Filip Hronek can be a first or second pairing defenseman for them. He averaged nearly 24 minutes of ice time a game last season, and had 31 points in 65 games. He\’s coming off of his ELC after this season and could earn a long term extension, depending on his play this year. His partner, Patrik Nemeth, was a productive defensive defenseman for the Wings last year, although he does not bring much offensive value. It\’s a stretch that he\’s a top pairing defenseman, but he can be a good addition for another team. Back surgery cost Danny DeKeyser just about his entire season. He had four assists in his eight games. Another Michigan native, DeKeyser had a 5.8 GAR in 2018-19. His partner will be Troy Stecher, who was a key part of the Canucks the past four seasons. Stecher had 17 points in 69 games last year, with a 48.7 CF%, higher than his team\’s average. The Wings brought in Jon Merrill, a third pairing defensive defenseman who averaged over 18 minutes a night for the dominant Golden Knights. Merrill had a 52.4 CF%, which would be amazing on the 2019-20 Red Wings, but was well below average for Vegas. The Red Wings essentially bought a second round pick by taking on Marc Staal\’s $5.7 million cap hit for this year. Staal really was not productive for the Rangers last year, with a 43.3 CF%. His main competition is Alex Biega, who played well for the Canucks in 2018-19 but regressed in Detroit, like just about everyone. He had three points in 49 games with a 45.1 CF%. Young defensemen Dennis Cholowski, Jared McIsaac and Moritz Seider will all develop elsewhere as the team goes with a veteran d-core this year.

Goalies

A main problem last year was Jimmy Howard\’s 4.20 GAA. Obviously, he\’s gone, but in steps Thomas Greiss, who will see a big difference going from Barry Trotz\’ Islanders to this team. Splitting time with Semyon Varlamov, Greiss had a .913 SV% with a 2.77 GAA. He was great in four playoff appearances, with a .929 SV% and a 2.02 GAA. Jonathan Bernier is back, and while he was below-average last year, at least he was serviceable. Bernier had a .907 SV%, and he\’s made a nice career as a fringe-starter the past five seasons. 

Projected Lines

Tyler Bertuzzi – Dylan Larkin – Anthony Mantha

Robby Fabbri – Vladislav Namestnikov – Filip Zadina

Darren Helm – Valtteri Filppula – Bobby Ryan

Sam Gagner – Frans Nielsen – Luke Glendening

Extras: Adam Erne, Michael Rasmussen, Evgeny Svechnikov

Patrik Nemeth – Filip Hronek

Danny DeKeyser – Troy Stecher

Marc Staal – Jon Merrill

Extras: Alex Biega, Dennis Cholowski.

Thomas Greiss

Jonathan Bernier

Projection

The 2017-18 Colorado Avalanche made the playoffs after the 2016-17 Avalanche had 48 points. Will the Red Wings follow their once rivals and surprise everyone in 2020-21? Probably not, the Avalanche had Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. It would be fun to dream, but the Wings are headed for another last place finish in 2020-21.

 

       The Ottawa Senators have acquired F Derek Stepan from the Arizona Coyotes in exchange for a 2021 second round pick. Ottawa previously acquired the second rounder from Columbus when they traded away Ryan Dzingel. 

        Off the bat, this trade really doesn\’t make much sense for Ottawa. While Stepan has been a valuable center in the past, he has really fallen off the past two seasons. The Senators have the cap space for Stepan, and if he performs they can flip him at the trade deadline, but giving up a valuable asset for him seems out of place. Even if he plays like prime Derek Stepan, I highly doubt Ottawa could even get a second back at the deadline. Even then, it is very unlikely Stepan can elevate his game on one of the league\’s worst teams. 

          Stepan, 30, scored 10 goals with 18 assists for 28 points in 70 games last year. In his NHL career for the Coyotes and New York Rangers, Stepan has 167 goals with 312 assists for 479 points in 739 games. 

         The Coyotes will be satisfied with this trade. They need cap space, and they free some up with this deal, and they can get a valuable draft pick back. Per Evolving-Hockey, Stepan hasn\’t been worth more than his $6.5 million cap hit since 2016-17, before he joined Arizona. This move could mean that Nick Schmaltz moves up with Clayton Keller and Phil Kessel, while Christian Dvorak moves to center. The Coyotes could now be able to afford an extra forward in free agency, maybe along the lines of Andreas Athanasiou, Brian Boyle or Derrick Brassard.