CarterHud

 

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       The Stars surprised everyone last year, including me, who thought that they would be out in the first round of the playoffs. Instead, they went the distance, winning the Western Conference before losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Now, they will face Tampa Bay seven times a season with a chance for redemption. 

Additions: D/F Mark Pysyk.

Subtractions: F Mattias Janmark, F Corey Perry, D Roman Polak.

Best Move: Re-signing Anton Khudobin.

Worst Move: Letting Mattias Janmark leave.

One Move I\’d Make: Trade away Stephen Johns to reduce the defensive clutter.

Best Contract: John Klingberg, two years remaining with a $4.25 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: Jamie Benn, five years remaining with a $9.5 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Carolina, Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Florida, Nashville, Tampa Bay.

Pending UFAs: Andrew Cogliano, Jamie Oleksiak, Blake Comeau, Stephen Johns, Mark Pysyk, Taylor Fedun, Justin Dowling.

Pending RFAs: Miro Hesikanen, Jason Dickinson, Julius Honka, Joel Kiviranta.

Forwards

A big theme for the Stars in 2019-20 was the lack of production from their stars. Tyler Seguin scored 17 goals and led the team with 50 points, which is nice, but in the previous six seasons, Seguin only scored less than 33 goals once, and had at least 70 points every year. He had a chance to make it all up in the postseason, and he didn\’t, scoring two goals with 11 assists in 26 games. The Stars announced that Seguin was battling injuries and had surgery in November with a four month timetable, meaning he will miss significant time in 2020-21. Joe Pavelski will need to step up to the top line in Seguin\’s absence. Pavelski, who was a consistent 30 goal scorer and 60+ point player in San Jose, scored just 14 times with 31 points in 67 games. The offensive production loss for Dallas\’ forwards could be seen as a defensive system being implemented, which helped them win the West last year. Jamie Benn\’s 19 goals and 39 points were his lowest in a season, minimum 50 games. Benn is 31 and you have to worry if he\’ll ever hit 30 goals again after only hitting the mark once in the past four years. Alex Radulov followed up on two consecutive 72 point seasons with a 34 point year, but unlike Seguin, he made it up in the postseason with eight goals in 27 games. Roope Hintz will earn a promotion to second line center after a nice second season. Playing in 60 games, Hintz scored 19 goals with 33 points. After being drafted 12th overall in 2015, Denis Gurianov had long been a disappointment, especially when many stars were picked after him. He finally became a full-time player last year, and scored 20 goals in 64 games. He adding an extra nine in the playoffs, and his 27 postseason games were more than he\’d played in any other season alone. In his second season as a regular, Jason Dickinson scored nine goals with 21 points in 65 games, and led Stars forward in short handed ice time. He also had a GAR of 7.0. A second rounder in 2017, Jason Robertson dominated the OHL before heading to the AHL last year. He got into three NHL games, and with the Texas Stars, Robertson scored 25 goals with 47 points in 60 games. Radek Faksa scored 11 goals, hitting a double-digit goal total for the fourth consecutive season. He signed a five year extension in the offseason to be the third line center. Andrew Cogliano had just 14 points in 68 games, and he is much more valuable defensively. Dickinson, Cogliano, Faksa and Blake Comeau all spent significant time on the penalty kill last year. Entering his 15th season, Comeau is an assistant captain in Dallas. He scored eight times in the regular season and added two in the playoffs, which would be 10 goals in a 78 game season, better than he did in 2018-19. Playoff hero Joel Kiviranta captured a fourth line spot this year after his hat trick in game seven of the second round versus Colorado. He had two goals in his other 13 playoff games. 2018 first rounder Ty Dellandrea has a good chance at the fourth line center spot. In 47 OHL games last year, Dellandrea scored 32 times with 38 assists for 70 points. Dellandrea\’s main competition is 30 year old Justin Dowling, who had six points in 29 games last year, and got into two playoff games. 

Defensemen

Miro Hesikanen became a top-10, maybe even top-5 defenseman in the playoffs. After being snubbed in Calder voting last year, Heiskanen received Norris votes after a 33 point campaign that lasted 68 games. He led the Stars in postseason scoring, with 26 points in 27 games, and he\’s only 21 years old. He is an elite defender as well, and posted an 11.3 GAR last year. Like Heiskanen, John Klingberg is an elite defender who excels at moving the puck. Klingberg had 32 points in 58 games last year, but in his previous five seasons his low was 40 points. Klingberg\’s partner, Esa Lindell, also received Norris votes, and averaged over 23 minutes a night with 23 points, although he had a surprisingly low 46.1 CF%. Six-foot-seven defender Jamie Oleksiak doesn\’t offer much offensive value, but he can be a shutdown defender on the middle pairing. Oleksiak had a career high 52.7 CF% in 2019-20. Veteran Andrej Sekera enters his 15th season, and second with Dallas. He had eight points with a +9 rating in 57 games last year. Mark Pysyk could be Sekera\’ stable partner on the third pairing. He played a decent amount of fourth line right wing for the Panthers last year and scored a career high nine goals. He\’s still listed as a defenseman and I\’d expect him to play that this year. The Stars could move Pysyk to the fourth line, and put Stephen Johns with Sekera. Johns missed all of 2018-19 battling with concussions, and played in 17 games last year. He was a Masterton finalist, but his future is uncertain after GM Jim Nill said that he wasn\’t comfortable playing in the postseason. Johns\’ replacement has been Taylor Fedun, who had nine points in 27 games last year, and played in 11 postseason games. 29 year old Joel Hanley and former first rounder Julius Honka round out the defensive depth. Hanley played in 12 playoff games, while Honka spent the season in Finland.

Goalies

The Stars rode on the back of Anton Khudobin during Ben Bishop\’s absence in the postseason. In the regular season, Khudobin had a 2.22 GAA and led the league with a .930 SV%, although he only played in 30 games. He started 24 playoff games with a .917 SV%. Bishop is still expected to start, or at least be Khudobin\’s 1A. Just one year removed from an amazing, Vezina finalist season, Bishop had a .920 SV% with a 13.28 GSAA last year. 

Projected Lines

Jamie Benn – Joe Pavelski – Alex Radulov

Denis Gurianov – Roope Hintz – Jason Dickinson

Andrew Cogliano – Radek Faksa – Jason Robertson

Joel Kiviranta – Ty Dellandrea – Blake Comeau

Extras: Justin Dowling, Mark Pysyk

Esa Lindell – John Klingberg

Jamie Oleksiak – Miro Heiskanen

Andrej Sekera – Mark Pysyk

Extras: Taylor Fedun, Stephen Johns, Joel Hanley, Julius Honka

Ben Bishop

Anton Khudobin

Projection

Winning their Conference obviously means that the Stars are good. This is just about the same team, minus some third line wingers and also Seguin for a chunk of the regular season. It might be too soon for them to face-off against Tampa Bay seven times, but they\’ll still cruise into a third place spot and a playoff birth. 

       It\’s pretty crazy how good Joe Sakic is at his job. Years ago, people were highly skeptical of him, and some thought that his trade of Matt Duchene to Ottawa was bad. Now, the Avalanche are still reaping the benefits of that deal, with a stable cap situation and no bad contracts. The team is primed for Cup contention, led by a top-two player in the NHL. 

Additions: D Devon Toews, F Brandon Saad, D Dennis Gilbert, F Miikka Salomaki, F Mike Vecchione. 

Subtractions: D Nikita Zadorov, F Vladislav Namestnikov, F Matt Nieto, F Colin Wilson, D Anton Lindholm, G Michael Hutchinson.

Best Move: Acquiring Brandon Saad and Dennis Gilbert from Chicago for Nikita Zadorov and Anton Lindholm.

Worst Move: N/A

One Move I\’d Make: Upgrade at 3rd line center

Best Contract: Nathan MacKinnon, three years left with a cap hit of $6.3 million. 

Worst Contract: Erik Johnson, three years remaining with a $6 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Anaheim, Arizona, Los Angeles, Minnesota, San Jose, St. Louis, Vegas.

Pending UFAs: Gabriel Landeskog, Brandon Saad, Philipp Grubauer, Ian Cole, Matt Calvert, Pierre-Edouard Bellmare.

Pending RFAs: Cale Makar, Tyson Jost, Dennis Gilbert, Conor Timmins.

Current RFAs: Vladislav Kamenev.

Forwards

No one carried their team like Nathan MacKinnon did last year, not even Connor McDavid. MacKinnon scored 35 goals with 93 points in 69 games. No other forward had even half of that. Thanks to his defensive value, people have been arguing that MacKinnon is the best player in the NHL, not McDavid. This was MacKinnon\’s third consecutive season of over 90 points, and his 1.35 points-per-game were a career high. While his linemates didn\’t come close to him point-wise, injuries played a part in that. Mikko Rantanen, the team\’s highest payed player (MacKinnon is on a steal of a contract), appeared in just 42 games, and scored 19 goals with 22 assists for the almost point-per-game final tally of 41 points. Rantanen was over that point-per-game mark in the previous two seasons. Gabriel Landeskog started out his Avalanche career with a Calder trophy and being the league\’s youngest captain ever, and this could be his final season in Denver. He is a UFA after the season, although you would think he\’d like to stay in Colorado. In 54 games, Landeskog scored 21 goals with 44 points. The second line will all consist of recent successful trade acquisitions. The only one of the three acquired this offseason is Brandon Saad. Saad scored 21 goals in 58 games for Chicago last year, reaching the 20 goal plateau for the 5th time in the past six seasons. Nazem Kadri scored 19 goals, three more than he did in 2018-19, playing in 22 less games. He especially showed up in the playoffs, an area that he was criticized in when he played for Toronto. Kadri scored nine goals with nine assists for 18 points in a 15 game run. Andre Burakovsky brought his game to a new level in Colorado. Despite playing in just 58 games, only five more than his career low, Burakovsky set career highs in goals (20), assists (25) and of course points (45), while getting more ice time per game than he ever did in Washington. Joonas Donskoi came to Colorado on a questionable four year deal, and scored a career high 16 goals and reached the 30 point mark for the third consecutive season. JT Compher has cemented himself as the third line center for now, scoring 11 goals with 20 assists. I would like to see the Avs explore going after a second line center who could be their third line center, like the Penguins would often do. After an embarrassing return to the NHL, not scoring a goal in 57 games, Valeri Nichushkin broke out in Colorado, scoring 13 goals with 27 assists, getting 8th place in Selke voting, and becoming an analytics darling, with a 14.7 GAR. Nichushkin also had a 55.6 CF%. Defensive center Pierre-Edouard Bellemare scored nine goals with 22 points, both career highs at age 34. He averaged over two minutes a night on the penalty kill. So did linemate Matt Calvert, who scored 12 goals with 25 points. He\’s hit at least 20 points in the past six seasons, and has double digit goals in five of those years, which isn\’t bad for a fourth liner. Tyson Jost wins the award for least job security on the team. The former 10th overall pick is only 22, but his career high point total is 26, and he had 23 last year in 67 games. Logan O\’Connor, who scored two goals in 16 games and played in five playoff games, and former first rounder Martin Kaut, who had three points in nine games last year, are options to replace Jost.

Defensemen

Cale Makar might have been the league\’s top prospect entering the season, and he took the league by storm, scoring 12 goals with 50 points in 57 games, finishing second on the team in point. Makar took home the Calder Trophy and finished ninth in Norris voting. Makar found a partner in Ryan Graves, whose +40 rating led the league. Graves scored nine goals with 17 assists in 69 games, and had an 8.8 GAR. Entering his fourth season at age 22, Sam Girard set a career high in points, with 34. His 21 minutes and 19 seconds on ice a night was a career high by over a minute. Erik Johnson may be the least famous first overall pick of the last 15 years, but hey, at least Colorado didn\’t draft him. Johnson has been serviceable for the Avalanche for the past decade, and he had a CF% right in the middle, at 50% last year. The Avalanche traded their next two second round picks to the Islanders for Devon Toews, then signed Toews to a four year extension so he could be their third pairing defenseman. Toews has shown promise on both offense and defense, although the defensive side could be a product of Barry Trotz\’s system. Toews is nearly 27 but is a two year veteran, and posted a career high 28 points in 68 games last year. Ian Cole can play both sides, and he had a +21 rating with a GAR of 9.0. 2017 2nd rounder Conor Timmins played in two games last year, and he had 27 points in 40 games. Top prospect Bowen Byram has a chance at making the team. The 19 year old has dominated the WHL, as he scored 14 goals with 52 points in 50 games for the Vancouver Giants in 2019-20. 

Goalies

The Avalanche have a goalie dilemma on their hand. Both Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz played well while splitting time last year, and they also were both injured in the postseason, leading to Michael Hutchinson leading the team to Game 7 of the second round. Grubauer is the more experienced of the two, Entering his 9th NHL season, but his sixth as a full-time backup or starter. Grubauer posted a .916 SV% last year, which was actually a career low, with a 2.63 GAA. A 29 year old rookie last year, Francouz played in two less games than Grubauer, but a had a .923 SV% with a GAA of 2.41 and a GSAA of 13.06.

Projected Lines

Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen

Brandon Saad – Nazem Kadri – Andre Burakovsky

Valeri Nichushkin – JT Compher – Joonas Donskoi

Tyson Jost – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare – Matt Calvert

Extras: Logan O\’Connor, Martin Kaut

Ryan Graves – Cale Makar

Sam Girard – Erik Johnson

Devon Toews – Ian Cole

Extras: Conor Timmins, Bowen Byram

Philipp Grubauer

Pavel Francouz

Projection

The Avalanche have a deep team. But, they also have an insane top line with the reigning Calder winner on the blue line. In the West Division, the Blues, Golden Knights and Avalanche should all easily make the playoffs, but the question is who will finish first. I think that will be the Avs. 

 

       After the Islanders lost John Tavares and made the playoffs in 2018-19, the Blue Jackets did something even more impressive. They lost Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel, and then made the playoffs. The Blue Jackets might follow the Isles and make the Conference Finals now, and they probably could. They play a defensive game, and they have a very talented forward group. Unfortunately, they still have a key RFA to sign, with a ton of pending UFAs. 

Additions: F Max Domi, F Mikko Koivu, F Mikhail Grigorenko.

Subtractions: F Josh Anderson, F Alex Wennberg, D Ryan Murray, D Marcus Nutivaara, F Devin Shore.

Best Move: Traded Josh Anderson to Montreal for Max Domi and a 3rd round pick.

Worst Move: Trading away Ryan Murray for a 5th round pick. 

One Move I\’d Make: Sign Pierre-Luc Dubois, right now.

Best Contract: Zach Werenski, two years remaining at $5 million per year.

Worst Contract: Brandon Dubinsky, one year remaining at $5.85 million.

New Division Rivals: Carolina, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Florida, Nashville, Tampa Bay.

Pending UFAs: Nick Foligno, David Savard, Riley Nash, Mikko Koivu, Mikhail Grigorenko, Adam Clendening.

Pending RFAs: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Alex Texier, Kevin Stenlund.

Current RFAs: Pierre-Luc Dubois.

Forwards

The one remaining goal for the Blue Jackets this offseason is to extend Pierre-Luc Dubois, preferably long-term, as Cam Atkinson is the only player on the team signed past 2022-23. The 22 year old scored 18 goals and led the team with 49 points in 70 games. He also led the team with 10 points in the playoffs. Dubois had a lot of success with Oliver Bjorkstrand and Alex Texier. Bjorkstrand scored a team leading 21 goals, and he only played in 49 games. He only took 12 penalty minutes, which was actually a career high. Texier is 21 and only played in 36 games last year, scoring six goals with seven assists. He had four assists in the playoffs. While playing with Dubois, Texier averaged nearly 22 minutes a game in the postseason, although their 5OT loss versus Tampa Bay probably inflates that. The Blue Jackets had a lot of injuries last year, and Cam Atkinson was part of the injured group. He scored 12 goals with 14 assists in 44 games, for a .27 goals per game, his lowest since 2013-14. That\’s still a 22 goal pace, and he has hit at least 20 in the six seasons prior to 2019-20. Columbus made a nice deal getting Max Domi from Montreal. Just one year removed from a 72 point season, Domi can play center and wing, and he scored 17 goals with 44 points in 71 games last year. He is a big improvement at second line center. Gustav Nyquist came to Columbus on a four year deal that I didn\’t think would work out, but it has so far. Nyquist scored 15 goals with 42 points in 70 games. Captain Nick Foligno could be entering his final season in Columbus. He\’s put up third line production in his last three seasons, maxing out at 17 goals and 35 points in this span. Foligno is coming off of the weakest of these three years, with 10 goals and 31 points in 67 games. He did score six points in 10 playoff games, his most of his eight career playoff runs. Boone Jenner scored 11 goals with 24 points, his lowest since his 2014-15 season, where he only played in 31 games. He also had a low 46.7 CF%. Jenner can play the wing, but he had a 55.2 face-off percentage last year. 2018 1st rounder Liam Foudy played in two regular season games, then became a regular in the postseason. He scored his first career goal and had an assist in 10 games. The Blue Jackets signed Mikko Koivu, who played his first 15 seasons in Minnesota. Koivu played in 55 games last year, and had a career low 21 points. Koivu consistently received Selke votes in his prime, and he is still a defensive forward, making him a good fourth line center for the Blue Jackets. The two wingers for Koivu come down to Mikhail Grigorenko, Riley Nash and Emil Bemstrom, with Eric Robinson and Kevin Stenlund having an outside chance. Grigorenko had 64 points in 217 games from 2012-13 to 2016-17 with the Sabres and Avalanche before leaving for the KHL. Last year, Grigorenko scored 19 goals with 22 assists for 41 points in 47 games. Bemstrom debuted last year, and the Swedish 21 year old scored 10 goals with 10 assists in 56 games, which isn\’t bad for a rookie season. Riley Nash had 14 points in 64 games, cementing himself as the second greatest Nash in Blue Jackets history. He\’s a solid defensive forward but he had an ugly 45.3 CF% last year. Robinson has amazing speed, but hasn\’t put that to use in the NHL, with 12 points in 50 games. Stenlund played in 32 games, and he scored six times with four assists. The final depth option is the five-foot-four Nathan Gerbe, who played in 30 games, finishing with 10 points. 

Defensemen

Explaining Seth Jones would be pretty confusing for a casual NHL fan. He\’s received Norris votes in each of the past four seasons, and has offensive value, with at least 30 points in the past five seasons, including in 56 games this past season. He plays a lot of hockey, averaging over 25 minutes on ice a night during the regular season, and over 32 minutes in the playoffs. But, despite this, his analytics are good, but nothing special that would say that he\’s a top-five defenseman. He had a good 4.5 Goals Above Replacement last year, and Evolving-Hockey estimated his worth at just $3.4 million last year. Good, but nothing special. His partner, Zach Werenski, is valued much higher by analytics, mostly because of his offensive value. He nearly led Columbus with 20 goals last year and he added 21 assists in 63 games. Despite a career low amount of games, that was a career high goal total for him. In each of his four seasons, Werenski has gained Byng votes. David Savard has earned the reputation of a second pairing, shutdown defender. While he only had 11 points, all assists, in 68 games last year, Savard\’s GAR was 6.7. With Ryan Murray and Marcus Nutivaara gone, Vladislav Gavrikov now has a much bigger load on the left side. He paired well with Savard last year, and earned a nice three year extension in the offseason. The 25 year old posted 18 points in a 69 game rookie season. Dean Kukan played in 33 games, which was actually a career high. The Switzerland native had five points, and became a regular in the playoffs, appearing in nine of the team\’s 10 games. Scott Harrington has played in 166 games for the Blue Jackets over the past four seasons. 39 of those game in 2019-20, where he had eight points. Former first rounder Gabriel Carlsson is almost 24, and has just 23 NHL games. In his six last year, Carlsson average ice time was ten minutes and 53 seconds. 

Goalies

Both Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo played in the playoffs, and were exceptional. Korpisalo set the all-time record for most saves in a game, and started nine games. In 37 regular season games, he had a .911 SV% with a 2.60 GAA. Merzlikins outplayed Korpisalo in his rookie season, finishing in 5th place in both Calder and Vezina voting. Merzlikins had a .923 SV% with a 2.35 GAA, and a 12.10 GSAA. They split time last year and probably will again this year, with Merzlikins being the 1A. 

Projected Lines

Alex Texier – Pierre-Luc Dubois – Oliver Bjorkstrand

Gustav Nyquist – Max Domi – Cam Atkinson

Nick Foligno – Boone Jenner – Liam Foudy

Mikhail Grigorenko – Mikko Koivu – Emil Bemstrom

Extras: Riley Nash, Eric Robinson, Kevin Stenlund, Nathan Gerbe

Zach Werenski – Seth Jones

Vladislav Gavrikov – David Savard

Scott Harrington – Dean Kukan

Extras: Gabriel Carlsson

Elvis Merzlikins

Joonas Korpisalo

Projection

The Blue Jackets have a really good all-around team. They don\’t have one absolute star, even though Dubois, Jones and Werenski are all good. But, they have great depth and are led well by John Tortarella. Even with some tough teams in their new division, they\’ll beat up on Chicago and Detroit like every else, and just beat the Panthers for 4th place, and a playoff spot. 

 

From Getty Images

       The Washington Nationals have acquired 1B Josh Bell from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHPs Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean. 

       The Nationals did need a first baseman, as one of their 1B option last year, Howie Kendrick, just retired, and Eric Thames is a free agent, as well as Ryan Zimmerman, who opted-out last year. This might close the door on Zimmerman, who at 36 years of age could be done with his playing career. Bell is a middle of the order bat to compliment Juan Soto. The Nationals don\’t have a good farm system, with no top 100 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline. But, their top seven prospects were all right-handed pitchers. Two of them, Crowe (#3) and Yean (#6) are now out of the organization. Bell broke out in 2019 after he hit 37 home runs with 116 RBIs and a .936 OPS. That seems great, but Bell had a 1.042 OPS after July 5th. He declined rapidly, and that continued into 2020. The months of June, July and September were all mediocre for Bell in 2019, but a monster May increased his final stats. Hopefully for the Nats, 2020 was just a down year. Bell\’s strikeout rate rose, way up to 26.5%, and his walk rate decreased to under 10%. Bell hit fastballs hard this past season, but couldn\’t hit breaking balls or offspeed pitches, with an xBA of under .200 against both pitch types. Bell will earn $6 million in 2021, and has one more year of team control afterwards, leading to free agency after 2022. 

       Bell, 28, hit eight home runs with a .226 average and an OPS of .669 in 223 Plate Appearances for the Pirates in 2020. In his MLB career, all in Pittsburgh, Bell has hit 86 home runs with a .261 average and an .814 OPS in 2191 Plate Appearances.

       The awful Pirates had a pretty good reason to trade Bell before he was a pending free agent. The team just is not good, and they have limited talent on a tiny payroll. They get two pitchers ranked highly in a weak Nationals system in Crowe and Yean, who are polar opposites on the prospect spectrum. Crowe is barely a prospect and is two years younger than Bell. He debuted last year, and MLB Pipeline says that scouts view him as a 4th or 5th starter in the future. Yean is still a teenager with a lot of development needed before he can become a big league starter. 

        Crowe, 26, struck out eight batters with an 11.88 ERA in 8.1 innings for the Nationals last year. In 2019 between AA and AAA, the 2017 2nd rounder had a 4.70 ERA with 130 strikeouts in 149.1 innings, leading Nats minor leaguers in innings pitched and finishing second in strikeouts. 

        Yean, 19, spent 2019 between Rookie League and Low-A Auburn. He had a 3.50 ERA with 43 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.165 in 46.1 innings. 

 

       The Blackhawks made the playoffs in 2019-20, but that\’s where the success ends. The team didn\’t deserve to be there, as they finished last in the Central Division, and they were invited to the bubble so there would be an even amount of teams in the West. While they actually beat the Oilers, they were crushed by Vegas, and in the offseason they told fans that they were rebuilding. Between the official announcement of the 2020-21 season and now, the Blackhawks have already lost two promising young players to injuries. At least they now have the Red Wings to beat up on. 

Additions: F Mattias Janmark, D Nikita Zadorov, F Lucas Wallmark, F Pius Suter, F Brandon Pirri, D Anton Lindholm.

Subtractions: F Brandon Saad, G Corey Crawford, D Olli Maatta, F Drake Caggiula, D Slater Koekkoek, F Dylan Sikura, D Dennis Gilbert.

Best Move: Signing F Mattias Janmark.

Worst Move: Trading Brandon Saad to Colorado for Nikita Zadorov and Anton Lindholm.

One Move I\’d Make: Acquire any available goalie, even David Ayres.

Best Contract: Dominik Kubalik, two years remaining at $3.7 million per year.

Worst Contract: Brent Seabrook, four years remaining with a $6.875 million cap hit.

New Division Rivals: Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Florida, Nashville, Tampa Bay.

Pending UFAs: Mattias Janmark, Zack Smith, Nick Seeler, Brandon Pirri.

Pending RFAs: Alex Nylander, Nikita Zadorov, David Kampf, Lucas Wallmark, Pius Suter.

Current RFAs: Dylan Strome.

Forwards

A lot of how the Blackhawks\’ forward core will be lined up will depend on the injury report for Kirby Dach. Dach was the captain of Team Canada at the World Juniors but suffered an arm injury that will cause him to miss the rest of the tournament and some NHL time. It would be a huge loss for Chicago, as the 2019 3rd overall pick is a huge part of their rebuilding process. Dach played in 64 games last year, and scored eight times with 15 assists. When he\’s healthy, you can pencil him in as the second line center. It would make sense to have Patrick Kane with Dach, to help Dach grow, especially since Kane generally doesn\’t play with Jonathan Toews. Kane is coming off another great season, scoring 33 goals with 51 assists for 81 points in 70 games. He\’s only missed one game in the past five seasons. Jonathan Toews fell back down from his surprise 35 goal, 81 point 2018-19, scoring 18 times and finishing with 60 points. He probably would have hit it in 82 games, but it was the first time in his 13 year career he didn\’t hit 20 goals.  Toews was still a big penalty kill presence last year. Toews and Kane led the Blackhawks in the playoffs, with nine points in nine games. Kane got a stable linemate in Dominik Kubalik, who was a 24 year old rookie. Kubalik scored 30 goals in 68 games, and finished 3rd in Calder voting, and was the highest among rookie forwards. Toews\’ longtime linemate Brandon Saad was traded again, meaning that Alex DeBrincat should be on the top line full-time. After a 41 goal 2018-19 season, DeBrincat scored just 18 times last year, and his 45 points were the lowest in his three year career. If he can play in all 56 games this year, and judging by the fact that he hasn\’t missed an NHL game yet, he should, DeBrincat can easy score at a 25-30 goal pace. Plus, he just turned 23. For now, the winger on Dach and Kane\’s line remains a mystery, especially after Alex Nylander had knee surgery, ending his season. The Blackhawks signed Pius Suter from Switzerland in hopes that he would become Kubalik 2.0. Suter is 24 and scored 30 goals with 53 points in 50 games in the Swiss-A league last year. He has five points in six games there this year. I like Suter on Dylan Strome\’s third line more, to give Strome a promising winger. The Blackhawks brought in Mattias Janmark from the rival Stars, who has showed middle-six winger qualities. He only scored six goals last year, but had 21 points in 62 games. Janmark is a defensive winger who would fit nicely on a Blackhawks team with aging depth. Between now and January 13th, the Blackhawks need to sign Dylan Strome, and then figure out what line he\’ll be on. With Dach out to start, that looks like the second line with Kane. Regularly, he should center line three. Like Dach and Toews, Strome was once the 3rd overall pick. He scored 12 goals with 26 assists in 58 games last year, and has averaged .77 points per game since coming over from Arizona. The last four spots are where things get messy, with at least six legitimate candidates. Both Ryan Carpenter and David Kampf played a lot of penalty kill for the Blackhawks last year, even more than Toews. Kampf scored eight times while Carpenter had 15 points, one less than Kampf. Both are alright fourth line options. Lucas Wallmark seems like a lock for the the fourth line center spot. He scored 12 goals with 25 points in 67 games for the Hurricanes and Panthers last year. That\’s three spots, making one of Matthew Highmore, Andrew Shaw and Zack Smith land the final spot. Both Shaw and Smith are veterans with injury history. In his return to Chicago last year, Shaw had 10 points in 26 games, before the concussions stepped in. If Shaw can stay healthy he\’ll get the spot, but that is a big if. Smith is basically just counting $3.25 million against the cap and that\’s all. He came over from Ottawa and saw his average ice time drop by well over four minutes a game. His four goals and 11 points were his lowest since his 37 game 2014-15. Highmore is the youngest of the group at 24. He scored three goals in nine playoff games, which was more than the two he had in 36 regular season games. 

Defensemen

Duncan Keith looked washed after a really bad 2017-18 season. But now, at age 37, he\’s still serviceable. Keith had 27 points in 61 games, and his 49 CF% was higher than the average Blackhawk. Maybe he shouldn\’t be averaging 24 minutes and 23 seconds a night like he was last year, but the team is still happy to have him. You can\’t say the same about Brent Seabrook, who was never on Keith\’s level but is a nightmare now. He\’s getting paid nearly $7 million a year and he had four points in 32 games last year, with a -2.2 GAR, and in 2018-19 he had a -9.3 GAR, so things aren\’t going well. There\’s a good chance he won\’t be a starter this year. The Blackhawks will pair 20 year old Adam Boqvist, who they drafted 8th overall in 2018, with Keith. Boqvist debuted last year and played in 41 games, finishing with 13 points. He has a lot of offensive potential. Calvin de Haan played in just 29 games last year, but blocked 73 shots with 93 hits. Blocking shots is what he does best, with at least 100 in each of the five seasons that he has played in at least 50 games. The Blackhawks are hoping that 2017 2nd rounder Ian Mitchell can replace Seabrook. The 21 year old scored 10 goals with 22 assists for 32 points in 36 games at the University of Denver last year. The Blackhawks lost a Brandon Saad trade for the third time this offseason, sending him to Colorado for Nikita Zadorov. Zadorov is a six-foot-six defensive defenseman who the Blackhawks hope can be a shutdown defender for them. He really wasn\’t that in Colorado, as he has a career CF% of 46.7, which is brought down by his 67 games as a teenager with the pre-Eichel Sabres. He\’s entering his 8th season, but he\’s only 25 years old. His partner will be another big and physical guy in six-foot-four Connor Murphy, whose entering year number four in Chicago. Murphy\’s 19 points were a career high, and he only played in 58 games. He averaged over 21 minutes on ice a night, and blocked 138 shots. The Blackhawks claimed Nick Seeler from the Wild midseason, and he played in six games for them. In 105 career games, Seeler has 12 points and 100 penalty minutes. 

Goalies

The Blackhawks let Corey Crawford leave for New Jersey, and didn\’t bring in anyone to replace him, so their goalies had 0 combined starts for them last year. Malcolm Subban came over from Vegas in the question Robin Lehner trade. He had an .890 SV% in 21 games last year, and an .899 SV% in his career. Collin Delia had some really good games in 2018-19, but struggled at the end of the season and finished with a .908 SV%. In the AHL last year, Delia played in 32 games with a .912 SV%. The third option is Kevin Lankinen, a 25 year old Fin who had a .909 SV% in 21 AHL games last year. Whoever the goalie of the future is on Chicago, it\’s probably not here. 

Projected Lines

Alex DeBrincat – Jonathan Toews – Dominik Kubalik

Mattias Janmark – Kirby Dach – Patrick Kane

Pius Suter – Dylan Strome – Ryan Carpenter

David Kampf – Lucas Wallmark – Andrew Shaw

Extras: Zack Smith, Matthew Highmore

Duncan Keith – Adam Boqvist 

Calvin de Haan – Ian Mitchell

Nikita Zadorov – Connor Murphy

Extras: Brent Seabrook, Nick Seeler

Malcolm Subban

Collin Delias

Extras: Kevin Lankinen

Projection

The Blackhawks aren\’t exactly going anywhere this year. They said that themselves. Especially with Subban and Delia in goal, they are doomed for a last place finish. Luckily, the Red Wings are in their division, but even Detroit has a chance against them. The only thing to make this a positive year is development from Dach, Suter, Boqvist, Mitchell and more.