CarterHud

 

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       The Hurricanes just have a really nice team. That\’s not a really a good first sentence, it is also all I could think about when looking at their roster. Besides Sebastian Aho, no one makes an enormous amount of money, and even Aho\’s contract is good. While they have a lot of people with cap hits between $2-$5 million, the Hurricanes have a very balanced roster with not a lot of cap problems at the moment. They move into a division with less competitors, but with both Stanley Cup finalists. It\’s interesting that they didn\’t get a goalie, so at the moment, there is that one weakness that stands out.

Additions: F Jesper Fast, D Joakim Ryan, F Drew Shore, F Jeremy Bracco.

Subtractions: F Justin Williams, D Joel Edmundson, D Trevor van Riemsdyk.

Best Move: Signing F Jesper Fast to a three year deal.

Worst Move: Not acquiring a goaltender and moving on from Petr Mrazek

One Move I\’d Make: Trade away F Jordan Martinook for cap flexibility and to make room for young talent.

Best Contract: Jaccob Slavin, five years remaining with a $5.3 million cap hit. 

Worst Contract: Brady Skjei, four years remaining at $5.25 million per year. 

New Division Rivals: Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Florida, Nashville, Tampa Bay.

Pending UFAs: Dougie Hamilton, James Reimer, Petr Mrazek, Ryan Dzingel, Brock McGinn, Jordan Martinook, Joakim Ryan.

Pending RFAs: Andrei Svechnikov, Warren Foegele, Morgan Geekie.

Forwards

Even 2019-20 was the only of his four seasons where he wasn\’t nominated for a major award, Sebastian Aho went on a goal scoring rampage. He scored 38 times, beating his previous career high by eight, and in only 68 games. He finished with 66 points, nearly hitting the point-per-game rate he had the season before. This goal outbreak can probably be thanks to a massive increase in shooting percentage, up to 18.4%. But, Aho still scored 30 goals with a 12.3 shooting percentage the year prior. Teuvo Teravainen only scored 15 times, but had an astounding 48 assists. He finished 5th in Lady Byng voting. After a good, but nothing special rookie season, Andrei Svechnikov showed why he was the second overall pick. He scored 24 times with 37 assists for 61 points in 68 games, and had a very high 14.2 Goals Above Replacement (GAR). A 2017 1st round pick, Martin Necas finally became a regular, and had a nice under-the-radar rookie season. he scored 16 goals with 36 points playing middle-six minutes. After coming over from Minnesota last year, Nino Niederreiter had 30 points in 36 games. In 67 games this year, he had less points, with 29. He still had a positive expected +/- (the difference of your xGF and xGA), so he isn\’t a bad player despite him being a healthy scratch in the playoffs. The Hurricanes got Vincent Trocheck from the Panthers at the trade deadline, and he didn\’t really fit in to start. He had two points in seven games and was a -5, and he took 16 penalty minutes. It didn\’t get much better in the playoffs, as he had two assists in eight games. Let\’s give him a full season before we can judge him in Carolina. The longest tenured and second-oldest player on the team (he\’s only 32!), Jordan Staal has seen a dip in points over the past two years, but he is still a Selke candidate. He had a 55.7 CF%, and per Evolving-Hockey, he had a higher DEF than OFF. Warren Foegele scored 13 times with 17 assists for 30 points in 68 games, which is third line production. He received a nice pay raise in the offseason, signing a one year, $2.15 million contract as an RFA. Speaking of wingers with third line production, the Hurricanes signed Jesper Fast, who has consistently put up between 20-30 points a season, to a three year deal with a surprisingly low $2 million cap hit. Fast\’s right handed shot on a lefty-heavy team will fit in nicely. Ryan Dzingel signed with Carolina after a career high 26 goal season, and it didn\’t go well. He scored just eight times, although his assists brought his point total up to 29, which is still his worst in a full season. A sharp decline in ice time with a new, better team could be the reason for the decrease in production. Like Dzingel, Brock McGinn also saw a decrease in production last year. His seven goals in a season were only lower in his 21 game 2015-16 season, and he had a negative expected +/-. Jordan Martinook had a really nice 2018-19, but he went back to what he was in Arizona last year. Scoring just two goals with 11 assists in 45 games made Martinook a fourth liner at best, who is fighting for a spot in the lineup. The main competitor for Martinook is Morgan Geekie, a 3rd rounder in 2017 who scored three goals in his first two NHL games last year. Geekie played in eight playoff games, but only had one assist. He had 54 points in 55 AHL games. Drew Shore returns to North America after a KHL stint. He has played in 94 NHL games for the Canucks, Flames and Panthers. Shore had 27 points in 43 games in Russia last year. 

Defensemen

Unless something drastic happens, the main priority for Carolina next offseason will be to retain Dougie Hamilton. He\’ll be a free agent after this year, and he played in 47 games in 2019-20, he had his best offense season, scoring 14 goals with 26 assists for 40 points. His goals per game and assists per game were career highs. That is also about a 24 goal pace in an 82 game season, and for a defenseman. Not to mention, he had a really good season defensively as well, cementing himself as a legitimate top-pairing guy. Hamilton\’s partner, Jaccob Slavin, is also very underrated. Slavin finished 4th in Byng voting and 5th in Norris voting last year. In the past four seasons, Slavin hasn\’t missed a game, and has at least 30 points each year. In 2019-20, Slavin had an astronomical GAR of 16.5. Jake Gardiner was an analytics darling over his time in Toronto, but that fell off last year, as his GAR went from 12.7 in 2018-19 to -7.3 last year, which is quite the drop. Gardiner finished with 24 points, a mark he\’s never had lower than in a full year. The only man to rival Gardiner\’s spot on the second pairing is Brady Skjei, who the Hurricanes traded a first rounder for at the deadline. Skjei played in 15 games with the Canes, if you combine the playoffs, and had three assists. Like Gardiner, Skjei has seen his analytical stats plummet, but for Skjei it is more of a three year thing with one good year rather than Gardiner\’s consistency followed by a one year drop-off. One of Skjei or Gardiner will partner with Brett Pesce, the consistent second pairing right-handed defenseman for the Hurricanes. Pesce had 18 points in 61 games, although he missed the playoffs with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss time in the regular season. Just like other Carolina defensemen, Pesce saw a little drop-off defensively. Even though he had 87 games of experience going into the season, Haydn Fleury scored his first four NHL goals last year. Fleury\’s CF% of 53.3 was a career high. Former first rounder Jake Bean only has two career NHL games under his belt, but he had 48 points in 59 AHL games. He won\’t be the actual seventh defenseman, but he\’ll probably be called up if someone gets injured long-term. The actual seventh defenseman will be Joakim Ryan, a 27 year old New Jersey native who appeared in 35 games for Los Angeles last year. He averaged over 19 minutes a night in those games. 

Goalies

Goaltending is where things get shaky here. I felt that the Hurricanes should have went after one of the cheaper goaltending options on the free agency market, with Cam Talbot being a good fit. While I felt that they should have shopped Petr Mrazek entering a contract year, he enters as the 1B. After a nice first season in Carolina, Mrazek regressed, with a .905 SV% and a negative GSAA. He only started five of their eight playoff games. The other three went to James Reimer, who was the better goalie in the regular season, but he played in 15 less games. Reimer had a .914 SV% with a 2.66 GAA and a 3.38 GSAA. Alex Nedeljkovic appeared in four games in the NHL last year, and had a 2.49 GAA in 29 AHL games. 

Projected Lines

Andrei Svechnikov – Sebastian Aho – Teuvo Teravainen 

Nino Niederreiter – Jordan Staal – Martin Necas

Warren Foegele – Vincent Trocheck – Jesper Fast

Ryan Dzingel – Jordan Martinook – Brock McGinn

Extras: Morgan Geekie, Drew Shore

Jaccob Slavin – Dougie Hamilton

Jake Gardiner – Brett Pesce

Brady Skjei – Haydn Fleury

Extras: Jake Bean, Joakim Ryan

Petr Mrazek

James Reimer

Extras: Alex Nedeljkovic

Projection

The Hurricanes are a team that everyone fears when they play them. Maybe not on the level of Tampa Bay, Boston or even Vegas, but they have that respect around the league. They have a very deep forward and defensive core. If they didn\’t have a weakness at goaltending, they could compete with the Lightning. I think that the Hurricanes will finish ahead of the Western Conference champion Dallas Stars, and in second place in their division. 

 

       In an offseason where teams tried to stay with what they had as best as possible, the Calgary Flames did a lot. While nothing was groundbreaking, a lot of shake-ups were made by a front office that doesn\’t want to wait. They finished 3rd in the Pacific Division, and now in a weaker Canadian Division, they have a chance to make some noise in front of their whole country, although they kind of already did after stealing a few notable players from one specific rival. 

Additions: G Jacob Markstrom, D Chris Tanev, F Josh Leivo, F Joakim Nordstrom, F Dominik Simon, D Nikita Nesterov, D Alex Petrovic, G Louis Domingue.

Subtractions: D TJ Brodie, G Cam Talbot, D Travis Hamonic, F Mark Jankowski, F Tobias Rieder, D Erik Gustafsson, D Derek Forbort, D Michael Stone, F Alan Quine, F Austin Czarnik.

Best Move: Revamping their fourth line.

Worst Move: Signing Chris Tanev to a four year deal.

One Move I\’d Make: Re-sign Travis Hamonic to a one year deal.

Best Contract: Elias Lindholm, four years remaining with a $4.85 million cap hit.

Worst Contract: Milan Lucic, three years remaining with a $5.25 million cap hit. 

New Division Rivals: Edmonton, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Vancouver, Winnipeg.

Pending UFAs: Derek Ryan, David Rittich, Josh Leivo, Joakim Nordstrom, Nikita Nesterov, Louis Domingue.

Pending RFAs: Sam Bennett, Dillon Dube, Juuso Valimaki, Oliver Kylington, Dominik Simon. 

Forwards

Johnny Gaudreau is on the long list of people who just want to forget about the last year. After a career year in 2018-19, finishing with 99 points, Gaudreau\’s point total in 2019-20 (58) was less than his assist total in the two years prior (60 and 63). He scored just 18 goals, and had his name floated in trade talks. He is only two years way from being a UFA, so 2020-21 will be huge on determining his future in Calgary. Gaudreau\’s longtime center, Sean Monahan, also had a down year following a season where he averaged over a point per game. Monahan scored 22 times and 48 points, both his lowest since his rookie year of 2013-14. He did have the lowest shooting percentage of his career, which explains the goal drought, but just about every stat but face-off percentage went down for him. Elias Lindholm continued to succeed in Calgary. While his assist total was cut in half, down to 25 from 51, which tanked his total points, Lindholm scored a career high 29 times, the most on his line. For now, this top line is pretty safe. The best player on the team might not even be on that line. Matthew Tkachuk led the team with 61 points, and 23 of them were goals. While all of the top line members are Lady Byng candidates, Tkachuk is certainly not, as he had 74 penalty minutes in 69 games. He had stable linemates in Mikael Backlund and Andrew Mangiapane. Backlund is the definition of a two-way second line center. In each of the past five seasons, he has put up at least 45 points, and he kills penalties, is a constant Selke candidate, and has scored 20 goals three times. A former 6th round pick, Mangiapane broke out in 2019-20, scoring 17 goals with 15 assists. Sam Bennett has never lived up to his 4th overall pick potential, and he just had his worst offensive season, scoring eight goals with four assists in 52 games. He doesn\’t kill penalties, and has played on the power play, but being a third line center seems like his peak. Milan Lucic had 20 points in 68 games and had 198 hits, so he isn\’t a bad bottom-six winger, but he is obviously overpaid. Oddly enough, Lucic has always had an above average Corsi, even when he was on Edmonton, which can help prove that the stat can be misleading. Dillon Dube played in a career high 45 games and scored six times. The whole Lucic – Bennett – Dube line played well in the postseason, with Dube scoring four times, Bennett five times and Lucic once, but he had five assists. Derek Ryan had a down season Corsi-wise, but 2019-20 was only slightly below average for him in scoring, as he finished with 10 goals and 29 points in 68 games. Having him at fourth line center is a luxury most teams don\’t have. The Flames revamped the wingers around Ryan this offseason, bringing in Joakim Nordstrom, Josh Leivo and Dominik Simon. Leivo probably has the most potential of the group, as he had 19 points in 36 games for the rival Canucks last year. Simon has been a part of the Penguins for parts of five seasons before they did not tender him a qualifying offer. He scored seven times with 15 assists in 64 games. Nordstrom is a penalty kill specialist who did not have a good 2019-20 at all with Boston. A 2015 4th round pick, Glenn Gawdin lit up the OHL and has fared well in the AHL. In 2019-20 for the Stockton Heat, Gawdin scored 16 times with 31 assists in 53 games. 

Defensemen

The undrafted Mark Giordano is back for his 15th season as a Flame. After a Norris winning 2018-19 season, Giordano went back to what he did the two seasons prior to 2018-19, with 31 points in 60 games. He had a Corsi well above average again, but now, he will have a new partner, as TJ Brodie left for Toronto. That partner is longtime division rival Chris Tanev, who is one of three former Canucks to join the Flames this offseason. Injuries have been a problem for him, but Tanev has averaged near or over 20 minutes a game for the past seven seasons. Before 2019-20, he had never taken more than 18 penalty minutes in a season, but he had 41 last year. Former 5th overall pick Noah Hanifin regressed a little bit in 2019-20, as his CF% decreased and his points decreased to 22. He shot more, averaging 1.89 shots per game, a sizable increase on the 1.45 from the year before. Rasmus Andersson may not live up to the six year, $27.3 million extension he signed, but for now he is a quality second pairing defenseman for Calgary. He took a jump in ice time by almost four minutes a game well. 2017 first rounder missed the whole season with a torn ACL after posting three points in 24 games in 2014-15. He\’s been playing in his home country of Finland, and has 19 points in 19 games. It looks like he\’s back to speed. Oliver Kylington isn\’t really an offensive defenseman at all, but he can contribute defensively. He\’s young and this season will be a big opportunity for him to grow. The Flames signed former Lightning 5th round pick Nikita Nesterov, who spent the last three seasons in the KHL. He had 23 points in 53 games last year. The Flames are thin defensively so bringing back Travis Hamonic or just signing any experienced defenseman would be a good idea if they could make it work with their limited cap space.

Goalies

The third and final ex-Canuck to join the Flames, Jacob Markstrom is the new starting goaltender in Calgary. With a lot of goalies hitting unrestricted free agency this offseason, the goalie market crashed, but Markstrom still made out handsomely. He signed a six year deal worth $36 million. Markstrom is coming off of a career season, with career highs in SV% (.918) and GSAA (11.40). His 2.75 GAA isn\’t great, but the Vancouver defense in front of him wasn\’t great. Backup David Rittich regressed after a respectable first full season. Rittich had a .907 SV% with a 2.97 GAA, and his GSAA turned negative. Louis Domingue has six years of backup experience. He did play for Vancouver last year, but it was only one game so it barely counts. In 16 appearances for the Devils, Domingue was terrible.

Projected Lines

Johnny Gaudreau – Sean Monahan – Elias Lindholm

Andrew Mangiapane – Mikael Backlund – Matthew Tkachuk

Milan Lucic – Sam Bennett – Dillon Dube

Dominik Simon – Derek Ryan – Josh Leivo

Extras: Joakim Nordstrom, Glenn Gawdin

Mark Giordano – Chris Tanev

Noah Hanifin – Rasmus Andersson

Juuso Valimaki – Oliver Kylington

Extras: Nikita Nesterov

Jacob Marskstrom

David Rittich

Extras: Louis Domingue

Projection

The Flames don\’t have to deal with the Golden Knights now, and the big, strong team entering their division is the Maple Leafs, who technically didn\’t really make the playoffs last year. While I\’m not saying that the Flames are better than Toronto, a weakened North Division will help lead them to a 2nd place finish and a playoff birth in 2020-21. 

 

       It must not be too fun to be a Sabres fan. The team has the longest playoff drought in the sport, for starters. There were some Jack Eichel trade rumors this offseason, and the team also was moved into the toughest division in the league, the East. Now, there are no Senators or Red Wings to beat down on. At least they were able to make Eichel happy by signing Taylor Hall, but who knows how long that will last.

Additions: F Taylor Hall, F Eric Staal, F Cody Eakin, F Tobias Rieder, D Matt Irwin.

Subtractions: F Marcus Johansson, F Jimmy Vesey, F Dominik Kahun, F Wayne Simmonds, F Michael Frolik.

Best Move: Acquiring Eric Staal for Marcus Johansson.

Worst Move: Letting Johan Larsson walk and signing Zemgus Girgensons and Cody Eakin.

Best Contract: Jack Eichel, six years remaining with a cap hit of $10 million.

Worst Contract: Kyle Okposo, three years remaining with a cap hit of $6 million. 

One Move I\’d Make: Trade D Rasmus Ristolainen.

New Division Rivals: Boston, New Jersey, Islanders, Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington.

Pending UFAs: Taylor Hall, Linus Ullmark, Carter Hutton, Brandon Montour, Jake McCabe, Matt Irwin, Tobias Rieder

Pending RFAs: Rasmus Dahlin, Sam Reinhart, Henri Jokijarju.

Current RFAs: Casey Mittelstadt, Lawrence Pilut. 

Forwards

There really isn\’t much of a question on who the best player on the Sabres is. Jack Eichel has led the team since being drafted in 2015, although there really wasn\’t any help to lead them anywhere. Eichel eclipsed the 30 goal mark for the first time in 2019-20, with 36. While he didn\’t set a career high in points, 78 points in 68 games meant a career high 1.15 points per game. The Sabres were able to sign top free agent Taylor Hall to a cheap one year, $8 million deal. Hall is coming off one his worst seasons, but still scored 16 goals with 52 points in 65 games. The two years prior he averaged over a point per game, and playing on Eichel\’s wing will only help him. Between Eichel\’s two linemates last year, Sam Reinhart and Victor Olofsson, only one will remain on the center\’s wing. Reinhart should get the nod, while both would be on the top power play unit. He scored 22 goals with 50 points in 69 games, reaching the 50 point mark for the third consecutive season. It wouldn\’t be a surprise if the Sabres want him to drive his own line. Olofsson came in and finished 7th in Calder voting. He scored 20 goals in only 54 games, with 11 of them coming on the power play. Jeff Skinner scored 40 goals in his first year with Eichel, but the rise of Olofsson led to the fall of Skinner, who was demoted to the second line. Skinner scored just 14 goals, his lowest since the shortened 2012-13 season, and only added nine assists to that. He will now have a new center, former Hurricanes teammate Eric Staal. Only two years removed from a 42 goal season, the Sabres should expect something similar to Staal\’s 19 goals and 47 points in 2019-20, albeit that was in 66 games. 19 year old Dylan Cozens is the biggest prospect for Buffalo. In 51 WHL games last year, Cozens scored 38 goals with 47 assists for 85 points. It\’s safe to say he is NHL ready. Cozens is a center but he\’ll play the wing to start. Cody Eakin scored 22 goals in 2018-19, but then fell off, especially analytically. Eakin scored five goals with 15 points total in 49 games. Bringing in Eakin and re-signing Zemgus Girgensons was a questionable move when the Sabres let Johan Larsson, a very good defensive center, walk to Arizona. Girgensons\’ 12 goals and 19 points were his highest since 2014-15. Two former first round picks, Tage Thompson and Casey Mittelstadt, have really fallen off in the NHL. Thompson played in just one game for the Sabres last year, and had 12 points in 16 AHL games. After having only nine points in 31 games, Mittelstadt was also demoted, and he had 25 points in 36 AHL games. Kyle Okposo was paid to be a top-six winger, but he has accepted a role as a stable fourth liner in Buffalo. His 19 points were the lowest of his career, and nine of them were goals. One of the many former first rounders with lost potential on the Sabres, Curtis Lazar turned his career around a little bit in Buffalo, with 10 points in 38 games. The Sabres signed Tobias Rieder, a winger who had the same amount of points as Lazar, but in 55 games. Former second rounder Rasmus Asplund could use time in the AHL. He debuted in 2019-20, with three points in 29 games, and he killed penalties. 

Defensemen

Trade rumors have said that the Sabres have had the chance to deal Rasmus Ristolainen in the past few years. They probably should, considering they have a lot of defensemen, especially on the right side, but also because of Ristolainen himself. He consistently has a terrible +/- rating, and has a career CF% of 44.8, which is well below average. He gets a lot of ice time, but he\’s also the perfect example of a player getting too much ice time. I think that a defensive defenseman like Jake McCabe, who had an above average CF% last year, would be a nice fit for Ristolainen\’s partner. The key to this D-core starts and ends with the other Rasmus. Rasmus Dahlin has been really good for the Sabres in his short two year career. He didn\’t get talked about much in 2019-20, but even despite an ice time decrease of about two minutes a game, Dahlin finished with 40 points in 59 games. That is .68 points per game, a big improvement on the .54 that helped him finish third in Calder voting the year prior. After the Sabres traded a first round pick for him in 2019, Brandon Montour looked like a good fit down the stretch. His first full year in Buffalo was a down season, with 18 points in 54 games, and his first CF% rel that was negative since 2016-17. He has a lot to prove in a contract year. Colin Miller had an amazing two-year run in Vegas Corsi-wise, with his CF% hanging around 56 both years. That did decrease with the Sabres, to a respectable 49.5, which is still the lowest of his career. He had 11 points in 51 games, which means a .22 points per game, his lowest since he was a Bruin. 21 year old Henri Jokiharju came to the Sabres in a deal with Chicago that looked really good at the time but now looks better. He had 15 points in 69 games, and he also has a career CF% of 51.7. He still has time to grow. Lawrence Pilut has been a depth defenseman for the Sabres over the past two years. Overall, he has a 51 CF% with six points in 46 games. Matt Irwin has been a 6th-7th defenseman for four teams now, and the Sabres would be his 5th. He had three assists in 36 games between Nashville and Anaheim last year. Irwin is the only Sabres defenseman on the wrong side of 30. 

Goalies

A little blunder in the Sabres\’ offseason was the Linus Ullmark contract. Ullmark was an RFA, and the contract is reasonable, at a $2.6 million cap hit. But, the Sabres only signed him for one year, leading him to unrestricted free agency. Ullmark wasn\’t a full-time starter last year, but he definitely was their best option, with a .915 SV% and 2.69 GAA. He\’s pretty young for a starting goalie, at 27. After an insane 2017-18 with St. Louis, Carter Hutton fell off in Buffalo. He started three less games than Ullmark last year, and posted an .898 SV% with a 3.18 GAA and an ugly GSAA of -10.99. The Sabres must be confident in top goalie prospect Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who played well in the OHL and ECHL but hasn\’t fared well in his limited AHL action. 

Projected Lines

Taylor Hall – Jack Eichel – Sam Reinhart

Jeff Skinner – Eric Staal – Victor Olofsson

Casey Mittelstadt – Cody Eakin – Dylan Cozens 

Tage Thompson – Zemgus Girgensons – Kyle Okposo

Extras: Curtis Lazar, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Asplund

Rasmus Dahlin – Brandon Montour

Henri Jokiharju – Colin Miller

Jake McCabe – Rasmus Ristolainen

Extras: Lawrence Pilut, Matt Irwin

Linus Ullmark

Carter Hutton

Projection

The Sabres were a well below average team when the Red Wings and Senators were in their division. Now, with a star-studded Eastern Division, which six playoff-worthy teams, the Sabres will struggle to keep up. A seventh place finish is in their future. 

 

       The big, bad Bruins steamrolled their way to the postseason once again in 2019-20. They were the only team in the league to hit 100 points before the regular season ended. While they started off poorly in the postseason, not winning a round robin game, they pounced the Hurricanes in five before the only team that could stop them, the eventual champion Lightning, knocked out the Bruins in round two. Goaltending became an issue when Tuukka Rask opted out in the middle of the postseason, and with both Rask and Jaroslav Halak becoming free agents after the season, the goalie talk will never stop unless there are extensions signed. The Bruins still have their \”Perfection Line\” intact, but some surgeries could see them missing Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak by game one. 

Additions: F Craig Smith, F Greg McKegg.

Subtractions: D Torey Krug, D Zdeno Chara, F Joakim Nordstrom, F Brett Ritchie.

Best Move: Signing Craig Smith.

Worst Move: Letting Torey Krug walk.

One Move I\’d Make: Sign D Zdeno Chara (or Ben Hutton as an alternative option) to a one year deal.

Best Contract: David Pastrnak, three years remaining with an AAV of $6.66 million.

Worst Contract: John Moore, three years remaining with a $2.75 million AAV. 

New Division Rivals: Buffalo, New Jersey, Islanders, Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington.

Pending UFAs: David Krejci, Tuukka Rask, Jaroslav Halak, Sean Kuraly, Par Lindholm, Kevan Miller, Greg McKegg, Steven Kampfer.

Pending RFAs: Brandon Carlo, Ondrej Kase, Nick Ritchie, Anton Blidh, Trent Frederic.

Forwards

The only member of the perfection line that we can confidently say will be in the Opening Night lineup is Patrice Bergeron. Entering his 17th season at age 35, Bergeron scored 31 goals with 56 points, and this was his third consecutive season with at least 30 goals. The impressive part about it is that he hasn\’t played in more than 65 games in any of those three years. A four time Selke winner, he finished in second in 2019-20. The always pesky Brad Marchand had sports hernia surgery in early September. He scored 28 goals this past season, which was actually the first time hadn\’t hit 30 since 2014-15. Still, his 87 points was the second most in his career. Marchand led Bruins forward in ice time with 19 minutes and 27 seconds on average. At 24, David Pastrnak is the youngest and best member of this top line. He won the Rocket Richard trophy with 48 goals, and scored a career high 95 points. Hip surgery could make him miss the first month of the season, so I did not include him in my projected lines. I could see either Ondrej Kase or Craig Smith, who have a combined six regular season games as a Bruin, to fill in for Pastrnak. An analytics darling, Smith comes in on a three year deal. He played on the third line in Nashville, and I wouldn\’t be surprised if he goes back there upon Pastrnak\’s return. Smith is a five time 20 goal scorer, and he came close last year, finishing with 18. Acquired from Anaheim at the trade deadline, Kase had one assist in six regular season games in four in 11 playoff games with the Bruins, and hasn\’t scored a goal in gold and white. He has regressed after a breakout 2017-18, but injuries have played a part in that. David Krejci\’s 73 point 2018-19 seems like an outlier, but so does his 43 point 2019-20. If healthy, he is more of a 50-60 point player. Jake Debrusk was an RFA before agreeing to a bridge deal. He has been a nice player for Boston over the past three years, although his 35 points in 2019-20 was a career low. He scored 19 goals. He has a very high 54% CF% in his career. A playoff hero from 2019, Charlie Coyle\’s first full season in Boston showed how he fit in. He can play right wing and center, and for now he\’s locked into the third line center role. His 16 goals in 2019-20 was his most since 2016-17, and you could say the same for his 37 points. A 2nd rounder in 2017, Jack Studnicka can get a third line chance while Pastrnak is out. He had an assist in his two NHL games last year, and he scored 23 goals with 49 points in 60 AHL games. He is only 21 years old. The final member of the third line is Anders Bjork, who could be pushed out of the lineup by Studnicka when Pastrnak returns. Bjork played in a career high 58 games in 2019-20, and scored nine times with 10 assists. He could also move down to the fourth line while Nick Ritchie moves up. Ritchie\’s physical game could make him a better fit to replace Joakim Nordstrom on the fourth line. He had two points in seven games after a trade from the Ducks. He only had one point in eight playoff games, so he will want to have a do-over with the Bruins starting this year. Sean Kuraly finished with 23 points in 69 games, and he averaged 97 seconds a game on the penalty kill. Chris Wagner, Kuraly\’s linemate who can play center and wing, had similar stats, with nine less penalty kill seconds and 13 less points. Par Lindholm can fill in on the 4th line, and he was a big part of the penalty kill in his 40 games played last year. Greg McKegg will make Boston his 7th team. He scored five goals in 53 games for the Rangers last year.

Defensemen

With Krug gone, Charlie McAvoy should move up to the top power play unit. One of the league\’s most underrated defensemen, McAvoy is only 23 and an another analytics darling. He finished 10th in Norris voting and put up 32 points while averaging over 23 minutes a game in 2019-20. Around him, this defense is pretty weak and could use another addition, specifically on the left side. The Bruins like Matt Grzelcyk, enough to give him a four year extension in the offseason. He will jump from the third to first pairing this year. Grzelcyk put up a career high 21 points with a +15 rating in a career high 68 games. Despite playing in a career low 67 games, Brandon Carlo put up a career high 19 points. He averages over 20 minutes of ice time a night, and over three minutes of that was on the PK. Connor Clifton has only three points in 50 career regular season games, but eight in 26 playoff games. Jeremy Lauzon had 13 points in 45 AHL games before playing in 19 NHL games. He is a physical player who took 29 penalty minutes in the NHL last year. John Moore has been disappointing after signing a five year deal that was even considered bad for Boston at the time. While both him and Lauzon played a lot of PK time last year, neither have much offensive potential. Moore had three points in 24 games. The oft-injured Kevan Miller is back after missing 2019-20. If he plays, it will be his seventh season as a Bruin. Former first rounder Jakub Zboril, a 23 year old with only two NHL games, is also an option.

Goalies

Goaltending is a big question for the Bruins. Both Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak had great numbers last year, but both are free agents after the season. The Boston fanbase is very divided on Rask, who just won the Jennings and was second in Vezina voting after a .929 SV%, plus a league leading 2.12 GAA and 22.51 GSAA. The \”he\’s not good in the playoffs\” narrative doesn\’t work either, as in 93 career postseason games, Rask has a .926 SV% and 2.20 GAA. The Bruins will do whatever they can to keep him. Halak on the other hand is a more questionable case, as he has played his way out of Boston, but in a good way. In two seasons as Rask\’s backup, Halak has a .921 SV% and a 2.36 GAA. The in-house options weaken afterwards. Dan Vladar had amazing AHL numbers, but in only 25 games, and he got absolutely shelled in his one playoff appearance versus the Lightning. He\’s looked good in the Czech league during the break.

Projected Lineup

Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – Craig Smith

Jake Debrusk – David Krejci – Ondrej Kase

Anders Bjork – Charlie Coyle – Jack Studnicka

Nick Ritchie – Sean Kuraly – Chris Wagner

Extras: Par Lindholm, Greg McKegg

IR: David Pastrnak

Matt Gryzelcyk – Charlie McAvoy

Jeremy Lauzon – Brandon Carlo

John Moore – Connor Clifton

Extras: Kevan Miller, Jakub Zboril

Tuuka Rask

Jaroslav Halak

Extras: Dan Vladar

Prediction

The Bruins enter a much tougher division than they had before. Previously, the Lightning were contenders and so were the Maple Leafs, but besides that the division is weak. Now, in the new East Division, only the Sabres and Devils look like non-playoff teams. There are no Lightning-level threats though, so while the Bruins will struggle at times, they will end up atop the division.

 

       There was a point in time where everything seemed alright for the Coyotes. Even after the resignation of John Chayka, the team beat the Predators in the wild card round. Then, everything fell off. The Avalanche dismantled them, and with the highest cap hit in the league, the team was unable to bring back Taylor Hall, and then the Mitchell Miller saga started. It was an offseason of embarrassments in Arizona, but after being placed in a weak division, their playoff odds still stand strong. 

Additions: F Tyler Pitlick, F Johan Larsson, F John Hayden, F Dryden Hunt. 

Subtractions: F Taylor Hall, F Carl Soderberg, F Vinnie Hinostroza, F Michael Grabner, F Brad Richardson.

Best Move: Revamping the fourth line by signing Johan Larsson and Tyler Pitlick.

Worst Move: Drafting Mitchell Miller.

One Move I\’d Make: Try to unload Oliver Ekman-Larsson-Larsson to Boston or Vancouver if there is still a chance.

Best Contract: Darcy Kuemper, two years, $4.5 million AAV.

Worst Contract: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, seven years, $8.25 million AAV.

New Division Rivals: Anaheim, Colorado, Los Angeles, Minnesota, San Jose, St. Louis, Vegas.

Pending UFAs: Derek Stepan, Alex Goligoski, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jason Demers, Antti Raanta, Jordan Oesterle, Ilya Lyubuskin. 

Pending RFAs: Conor Garland, John Hayden, Dryden Hunt

Forwards: Before he left, Hall had success with Conor Garland and Christian Dvorak. Those two will stay together with Nick Schmaltz as a good candidate to be their linemate. The Coyotes might have hit with Garland, a 5th rounder in 2015. He scored 22 goals for them in 68 games. In his three full seasons, Dvorak is yet to hit 40 points, but his 38 in 70 games this past season was a career high. He also had a career best 51.3 CF%. In his first full season in the desert, Schmaltz led the team with 34 assists and 45 points. Both him and Garland could benefit from each other, with Schmaltz as the playmaker and Garland as a goal scorer. The Coyotes have a very expensive top line, carrying a cap hit over $20 million combined. Since finishing third in Calder voting as a 19 year old, Clayton Keller is yet to come close to the 65 points he had in 2017-18. His goals per game and points per game did improve from a weak 2018-19. Despite a good first year, Derek Stepan has not worked out in Arizona. Stepan had a career low 35 points in 2018-19, but topped that off in 2019-20. He scored a career low 10 goals, and his 18 assists were also a low. This includes the 48 game 2012-13 year. For a playmaker like Stepan, adding a six-time 30 goal scorer like Phil Kessel should have helped him, but Kessel also posted bad numbers. His 38 points was his least since 2007-08, and his 14 goals have only been worse in 2006-07. Even though he is now 33, there is still hope as Kessel is just one year removed from an 82 point season, albeit that was with Evgeni Malkin on his line. 2018 5th overall pick Barrett Hayton debuted in 2020, and was quiet, only posting four points in 20 games. He has been playing in Finland over the break, but he hasn\’t scored in 8 games. The Coyotes are banking on Hayton to be their third line center, which would create a playmaker-heavy center core. While he will not live up to the hype that had him drafted ahead of Mat Barzal, Thomas Chabot, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny and more in 2015, Lawson Crouse has developed into a nice third liner for the Coyotes. Standing six feet and four inches tall, Crouse is a physical threat who scored a career high 15 goals in 66 games last season. An early second round pick in 2015, Christian Fischer has fallen off after a 15 goal rookie season. In 56 games in 2019-20, Fischer scored just six goals with three assists. A line of Crouse, Hayton and Fischer feels like a big boom-or-bust opportunity, and none of them are older than 23. The Coyotes revamped their fourth line and improved their penalty kill by signing Tyler Pitlick and Johan Larsson. A defensive first center, Larsson averaged two minutes a game on the penalty kill for the Sabres, while Pitlick averaged a minute and two second for Philadelphia. Pitlick is the better offensive player, and scored 10 goals for the Flyers last year if you combine playoff and regular season stats. John Hayden and Dryden Hunt are fighting for the final spot. Hayden has defensive defenseman-like stats, with 11 goals and 26 points in 156 career games. Hunt has 15 in 63 games. They could split games.

Defensemen

The Coyotes might regret not trading Oliver Ekman-Larsson when they had the chance. Ekman-Larsson\’s contract looks really bad, and they could have gotten really good value for him. His production has seen a decline recently. His 30 points were his least in a season (minimum 50 games) and it was also the first time he didn\’t score 10 goals or more (also minimum 50 games). Besides Ekman-Larsson, Jakob Chychrun is the only defenseman who isn\’t a UFA after 2020-21. Chychrun reached a career high 12 goals and 26 points, although he has not played in 70 games in a season, and that won\’t change in 2020-21. Jason Demers has averaged at least 20 minutes of ice time a game in three seasons with the Coyotes. In his prime, Demers consistently had a CF% over 50, although that hit a career low 46.6 mark last year. With 32 points, Alex Goligoski led Coyotes defenders. He has hit at least 30 points in nine of the last 11 seasons. Longtime shutdown defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson played in just 27 games, thanks to an injury sustained after blocking a shot. His .19 points per game was actually his highest as a Coyote. Both Jordan Oesterle and Ilya Lyubuskin will spend time on the third pairing. Lybushkin is the only right-handed defenseman on the team besides Demers, and he has only eight points in 92 career games. Oesterle has 33 points in two seasons with Arizona. 

Goalies

The strong point of this team is goaltending, with two good goalies both on good, but short-term deals. Darcy Kuemper has been great the last two seasons, and he had career bests in both SV% (.928) and GAA (2.22), but in just 29 games last year. He had a 16.65 GSAA. It will be tough for the Coyotes to bring back Antti Raanta, who is a free agent after this season. He has a .924 SV% in three seasons for them. 

Projected Lineup

Clayton Keller – Derek Stepan – Phil Kessel

Christian Dvorak – Nick Schmaltz – Conor Garland

Lawson Crouse – Barrett Hayton – Christian Fischer

Dryden Hunt – Johan Larsson – Tyler Pitlick

Extras: John Hayden

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Jason Demers

Jakob Chychrun – Alex Goligoski

Niklas Hjalmarsson – Jordan Oesterle

Extras: Ilya Lyubuskin

Darcy Kuemper 

Antti Raanta

Extras: Adin Hill

Projection

The Coyotes are pretty mediocre, and in other divisions they should not be as close to the playoffs as they are. But, to get there, they\’ll have to beat out the definition of mediocrity in hockey in the Minnesota Wild. With elite goaltending, a young forward core and a lot of defensive defenseman, the Coyotes have a 50/50 chance. I say they make it.